by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Sunday, May 31, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
Is this the end of the road for Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz? Big Papi, probably a Hall of Famer (maybe not first ballot), is 39 years old and his contract is up after this season. He is hitting just .216 with six homers and 18 RBIs with a slugging percentage of .377 that some leadoff hitters can beat. In May he’s hitting .200. Red Sox manager John Farrell sat Ortiz on Thursday and said he would for a few more games to get himself mentally right. Recently, Farrell tried dropping Ortiz to No. 5 in the lineup from No. 3 to try and get him going. He may be back in there on Sunday, or Farrell could wait until Monday’s series opener back at home against Minnesota because the Rangers throw a left on Sunday.
♦♦ Red Sox at Rangers (-117, 9.5)
Boston did get good news in that X-rays on the left wrist of shortstop Xander Bogaerts were negative after he was hit by a pitch there by the Rangers’ Nick Martinez on Thursday. I would think there would be some kind of Wonder Woman-style wrist guard players could wear without hampering their swing but what do I know. This could be the last start for a while for Boston’s Joe Kelly (1-4, 6.24) as there has been talk he might be demoted. He was rocked for seven runs and eight hits in just 1.2 innings last time out vs. the Twins. It’s the fifth time he has allowed at least five runs in a start. He did pitch well on May 20 vs. Texas, allowing two runs over seven innings and whiffing seven. Adrian Beltre is 3-for-6 off him. Shin-Soo Choo is 3-for-9 with a homer. The Rangers have won two straight starts by southpaw Wandy Rodriguez (2-2, 3.60). He held the Sox to a run over 6.2 innings on May 21. Hanley Ramirez hits .370 off him with five extra-base hits in 27 at-bats.
Key trends: The Sox are 6-1 in Kelly’s past seven as an underdog. The “over/under” is has gone over in seven of Boston’s past 10 road games vs. a lefty.
Early lean: Rangers and over.
♦♦ Marlins at Mets (-122, 7.5)
I always enjoy watching Bartolo Colon pitch because I so love it the rare time the obese Colon gets on base. It’s must-see TV. But he’s one of the worst hitters in MLB history so he doesn’t that often. He will be glad to see May end. Colon (7-3, 4.82) entered the month with a 3.31 ERA. He is 3-2 with a 6.52 ERA this month. Colon is 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts this season against Miami. Giancarlo Stanton is 5-for-8 with two homers and nine RBIs against him. Adeiny Hechavarria is 3-for-9 with two doubles. Miami has lost three straight David Phelps (2-2, 3.56) starts. He has allowed four earned in each of his past two. Phelps is 0-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two starts vs. the Mets. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-6 with a double and RBI off him.
Key trends: The Marlins are 2-7 in their past nine on Sunday. The Mets are 7-2 in Colon’s past seven as a favorite. The over is 8-0 in Colon’s past eight during Game 3 of a series.
Early lean: Mets and over.
♦♦ Nationals at Reds (+110, 8)
Cincinnati avoided total disaster this week when an MRI on Johnny Cueto’s pitching elbow found only inflammation and no structural damage — that would have killed the Reds’ chances of getting a big haul back for him via trade in July. After missing his last start, Cueto did throw Wednesday and was supposed to start this one but for obvious reasons the team is being cautious. Thus it’s Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 3.12). It will be his first-ever start vs. Washington. It’s Tanner Roark for Washington. He was banished to the bullpen despite a stellar 2014 season as a starter after the Nats signed Max Scherzer. But with Doug Fister on the DL, Roark started Monday at the Cubs and allowed a run and three hits over five innings. Marlon Byrd is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts off Roark. Joey Votto has yet to face him.
Key trends: The Nats are 6-1 in Roark’s past seven as a road favorite. The Reds have lost seven straight on Sunday. The under is 5-1 in Roark’s past six as a favorite.
Early lean: Nats and under.
♦♦ Royals at Cubs (-147, TBA)
I guarantee you that Kansas City’s Jeremy Guthrie has a better start Sunday in Chicago than he did Monday in New York when Guthrie (4-3, 6.79) allowed 11 runs and nine hits, four homers, in just one inning of work. Some stats on that from ESPN: The last pitcher to allow 11 runs while throwing fewer than 60 pitches was Jason Jennings of the Astros, who gave up 11 runs on July 29, 2007, while throwing just 39 pitches; Guthrie joined Jennings as the only starters since 1914 to allow at least 11 earned runs in fewer than two innings; the last starter to allow four home runs while pitching fewer than two innings was Jae Kuk Ryu of the Cubs on May 28, 2006. Only a few Cubs have seen him. Miguel Montero is 2-for-6. Dexter Fowler is 0-for-5. It’s Jason Hammel (3-2, 2.98) for Chicago. He was set to go Saturday but pushed back a day because of a fingernail issue. Only in baseball! The Royals’ Alcides Escobar is 5-for-12 with a double off him. Alex Rios, who was set to be activated Saturday off the DL, is 7-for-23 with a homer and seven RBIs.
Key trends: The Royals are 4-1 in their past five as a road dog when Guthrie starts. The Cubs are 1-7 in Hammel’s past eight during Game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in his past six during Game 3 of a series.
Early lean: Cubs and under.
♦♦ Tigers at Angels (+113, 7.5)
This is your Sunday night game on ESPN and thus will have live betting at sportsbooks. No hockey or NBA opposite it, either, so it’s about all you have. Although for some reason there is a later-starting game between the Pirates and Padres. That’s unusual as ESPN generally has the prime-time window to itself. The story of any Tigers-Angels game is watching probably the two best offensive players in MLB in Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout, the guys who have won the past three AL MVP Awards (Trout was second to Miggy his in 2012-13). The Tigers have won six straight behind lefty David Price (4-1, 2.97). He blanked the A’s on five hits over seven innings last time out. Trout is 2-for-9 with six strikeouts off him. Albert Pujols has two solo homers in 11 at-bats. The Angels’ Matt Shoemaker comes off his best start and it was similar to Price’s in that Shoemaker kept the Padres off the board on four hits over seven innings but he got a no-decision. Cabrera is 0-for-3 against Shoemaker, who went to college not far from Detroit at Eastern Michigan and grew up a Tigers fan.
Key trends: The Tigers are 5-0 in Price’s past five on road. The Angels have won just one of their past 11 on Sunday. The over has hit in seven of Shoemaker’s past 10 as a dog.
Early lean: Tigers and under.
MLB Ballparks changing their stripes when it comes to betting park factor
By Joe Fortenbaugh
In April of 2004, the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres waved goodbye to their respective outdated ballpark relics known as Veterans Stadium and Qualcomm Stadium and stepped forward into the modern era with the debut of fan-friendly attractions Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia) and Petco Park (San Diego).
But while the locales shared the similarities of serving as National League venues opening within a week of one another, the next decade would see each stadium travel a drastically different path.
Citizens Bank Park quickly established its place among the top hitter-friendly venues in all of Major League Baseball, as CBP ranked in the Top 5 in home runs per game four times during the stadium’s first five years of existence.
Conversely, Petco Park finished 29th or worse in home runs hit four times during that same time span. While hitters were living the dream in Philadelphia, they were experiencing recurring nightmares 3,000 miles away in Southern California.
However, fast-forward to 2015 and it’s a different story entirely. While the Phillies and their opponents are still mashing at a steady rate, San Diego has undergone a transformation that bettors should be closely monitoring.
Citizens Bank Park ranked sixth in home runs per game last season (1.214) and through the first two months of this year, ranks seventh (1.286). But it’s in San Diego where a unique transition has occurred that has the Padres and their opponents morphing from an average 0.808 home runs per game in 2014 (24th) to 1.056 per game this season (14th).
The reasons for the sudden SoCal power surge can be traced to a combination of both human and environmental factors. For starters, the heavy marine layer responsible for keeping balls in play this time of year has been absent in downtown San Diego due to warmer temperatures.
That hasn’t been the case in San Francisco, where a combination of wind and the aforementioned marine layer contributed to an average of just 0.488 home runs hit per game at AT&T Park this year, which currently ranks dead last in baseball.
In addition, the Padres moved the left field fence in three feet while simultaneously lowering it from eight feet to seven feet. And let’s also not forget the fact that Padres general manager A.J. Preller went on a spending spree this offseason that saw the franchise acquire Justin Upton and Wil Myers – among others – the former of which currently ranks fourth in the bigs with 12 dingers.
The result of this myriad of changes has seen Petco Park, a stadium where Overs went a bankroll-busting 30-47-4 last season, produce an Over/Under record of 13-10 through the first 23 home games of the 2015 campaign.
Granted, that’s not the type of blind-betting record that will buy you a house in Bora Bora come October, but it’s certainly enough to warrant a study into the other MLB ballparks to determine if there are any other drastic changes that have taken place so far this spring.
SURGING
Progressive Field (Cleveland): An anomaly based on the fact that Progressive Field saw an average of 1.083 home runs per game last season (11th in MLB) compared with just 0.786 in 2015 (24th), yet, the Indians were 39-42 to the Under during home games a year ago versus 14-7 to the Over through two months this season. Credit the starting pitching (4.10 ERA, 21st) and horrific defense (30 errors, 23rd) for the surge in scoring.
Turner Field (Atlanta): Similar to the oddity taking place in Cleveland, Turner Field has watched its home run rate drop from 1.122 per game in 2014 (10th) to 0.927 this season (18th) despite going 34-40-7 Over/Under last year compared with a 14-6-2 O/U mark this year. The profitable Over run can largely be attributed to bookmakers sending out lower totals to open the season under the impression that this team would be one of the worst clubs in baseball in 2015. At 22-21 entering Memorial Day, the Braves have done their best to prove a lot of people wrong.
Miller Park (Milwaukee): One of the worst teams in baseball at 16-29 while boasting a run differential of minus-51, the Brewers’ pitching staff has been serving up meatball after meatball that has seen the home run rate at Miller Park jump from 1.142 in 2014 (9th) to a league-leading 1.801 this season. Should that number hold through until the end of the season, it would serve as the highest home run rate since Progressive Field in Cleveland posted an astounding 2.031 jacks per game back in 2001. Miller Park played to a 36-43-2 O/U record last season, but currently boasts a 13-9-1 O/U count in 2015.
SLIDING
AT&T Park (San Francisco): One of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, the defending champs are an extremely profitable 16-7 to the Under in 2015 when playing by the Bay, as opposed to the 38-39-4 O/U mark this stadium produced last season. The low-scoring totals can be attributed to a revamped lineup that lost big-time hitters Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse during free agency and spent the first six weeks of the year without right fielder Hunter Pence (broken forearm). Additionally, no club in baseball has gotten better starting pitching when playing at home than the Giants (2.73 ERA, first).
Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia): It’s still a hitter-friendly venue that ranks seventh in home runs per game (1.286), but the Phillies lack any semblance of firepower necessary for keeping up their end of the bargain. A 40-35-6 O/U record last season has plummeted to 8-12-2 O/U to kick off the 2015 campaign due in large part to an offense that ranks dead last in runs per outing (3.17).
Comerica Park (Detroit): Miguel Cabrera (11) and J.D. Martinez (9) are doing their part. But, as for the rest of the Tigers, well, this club currently ranks just 20th in the majors in home runs this season (0.84), which has helped drop last year’s 44-33-4 Over/Under record to 11-14-1 O/U this season. In addition, Comerica Park in general has been a bit stingier in 2015 by permitting just 0.856 home runs per game (20th) as opposed to the 1.014 rate it allowed in 2014 (15th).
Bankroll 911: How to dig yourself out of a MLB betting hole
By Jason Logan
April showers were supposed to bring May flowers, but for many MLB bettors those rainy days didn’t end.
Surviving the first two months of the baseball season with your bankroll intact can be about as tough a task as getting Cooperstown to acknowledge Alex Rodriguez’s records. If you’re among the many with their baseball bets on life support, we’re dialing 911 before it’s too late.
We asked sharpest MLB handicappers to give some insight, tips and practices on how to revive your baseball bankroll.
Money management
We may be taking you back to sports betting kindergarten here, but plenty of bettors don’t understand proper money management. This practice is extremely important when it comes to baseball. Without it, your wallet will thin up quicker than Keira Knightley on a hunger strike.
The majority of MLB wagers are made on the moneyline, which can be very deceptive when it comes to wins and losses. A 30-12 record may look good at first glance but – depending on the price of those moneylines – could actually be a losing mark. Steve Merrill says ranking your plays and knowing how much to wager is an important part of climbing out of the red.
“Money management is critical and especially in a daily sport like MLB where you have multiple plays every day for six months straight,” Merill says. “The best method is to use a fixed percentage of bankroll for each play.”
Some cappers suggest divvying out 1 percent of your bankroll on MLB plays you like ($100 wager for a $10,000 bankroll) while others look to bet 3 percent and jump to 4 and 5 percent on games they really feel strongly about. If you’re coming out of a terrible April and May, you may want to start smaller and go from there.
“This will enable you to withstand the inevitable statistical swings – both good and bad – that occur during a long and high volume MLB season,” says Merril.
If you’ve been properly managing your bankroll this whole time but still burning through units, drop your bet size down to relieve some of the pressure of the losing skid. Some cappers suggest a decrease of 25 to 30 percent from your regular wager size.
Beware big moneyline favorites
Teams like Detroit, Los Angeles and St. Louis regularly find themselves at the top of the divisional standings but rarely sit among the top money earners for baseball bettors. That’s because you pay a premium to take these teams on the moneyline.
While these elite clubs win more often than not, those victories return cents on the dollar taking a long time to add up. And when those top teams do lose, it does Godzilla-like damage to your bankroll since it costs so much just to bet them.
Avoiding hefty favorites and finding other ways to cash in on these power teams is a good way to breathe life back into your bankroll. Nick Parsons says costly favorites should not be toyed with, instead look to alternative odds – like runlines – to find better value.
“I’d suggest playing favorites on the runline if the (moneyline) price is above -160,” says Parsons. “If you don’t think that team is going to win by more than a run, then it’s probably best to avoid that play all together.”
Doggy Dog world
Underdogs are underdogs for a reason – they’re not expected to win. That doesn’t always instill the greatest confidence in sports bettors. However, finding live underdogs is a perfect way to shoot Red Bull directly into the veins of your bankroll.
Some handicappers strictly wager on underdog teams to avoid getting burned by high-priced favorites. Sean Murphy tends to lean toward plus-money teams, hunting down home pups and short road dogs showing their teeth.
“It’s no surprise that I suggest looking for value in dogs priced north of +130 on a daily basis,” says Murphy. “Consider a couple of underdogs each day, expecting to split at worst, and your bankroll will not only survive but grow over time.”
Tracking totals
If you’ve been betting totals all along or just sick of getting pantsed on the moneyline, the MLB Over/Under is a great way to get out of a funk. And, perhaps more than any other sport, baseball total trends can be any easy way to spot profit. When the betting markets are off on a team’s baseline total number, the value can last for weeks, even months.
And when it comes to the cost of the Over or Under, MLB bettors aren’t paying a premium to play one side of the other, usually dealing with lines no higher than -130 associated with the total.
Pump the breaks and stay patient
Baseball is an everyday sport, however, there’s no rule that says you have to be it every day.
If you’re feeling the sting of a bad beat or extended losing skid – like an Aroldis Chapman beanball – you can always take a day or two off. Like any task or project, sometimes fresh eyes can be the best solution to a problem.
“While no one wants to hear it, laying off can be a fail-safe strategy to not further dwindle one’s bankroll,” says Bryan Power. “I know that if I feel I am struggling to pick winners, taking a day or two off can help. Take some time, look at what’s going on with out making any actual wagers and see if you can come to any new conclusions.”
Keep calm and give it time to turnaround. Don’t expect to follow a 0-fer day with a perfect 4-0 record just because you’ve taken all the steps above. Baseball is a 162-game schedule and as the classic sport betting cliché says, “It’s a marathon, not a race.”
Dover hosts Sprint Cup Series Sunday
by Freddy Wander
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks
Sunday, May 31st – 1:15 p.m. EDT
Dover International Speedway – Dover, DE
The FedEx 400 is the first Sprint Cup race in Dover before the AAA 400 in the fall and first attached its name with the non-profit organization, Autism Speaks, in 2007. The race was first run in 1971 and was originally a 300-mile race for two years before being a 500-mile race and moved to the current format in 1998. Since the change, Jimmie Johnson (2002, 2009, 2012, 2014), Kyle Busch (2008, 2010), Matt Kenseth (2006, 2011) and Tony Stewart (2000, 2013) have each one more than once with Jeff Gordon (1996, 2001) being the only racer to win in both lengths. With Johnson and Gordon’s wins here, Hendrick Motorsports now has eight career victories from their athletes and four more than any other group. The one-mile, oval track will feature 24-degree turns and a concrete surface which typically features speeds in the low to mid 120 MPH range on average for the victor. Let’s take a look at the entrants for the week and find some racers who could take the checkered flag on Sunday.
Kyle Busch (15/1) – In his first race back, the All-Star Race, Busch was solid with a sixth-place finish amongst some of the best in the sport and he followed that up by improving his pole position of 17th to a finish of 11th in Charlotte last week. Busch has always enjoyed running on this track and has two career wins here while posting the third-best driver rating (105.5). In his 20 races, he has four DNF, but in the other 16 has finished in the top-10 13 times and besides his two victories owns another seven top-five showings. Busch will continue to get back into the swing of things and should shortly be competing at his usual elite level.
Martin Truex Jr. (14/1) – Truex Jr. owns a mere two victories in his 345 career races, so his fairly low odds for a victory may seem off, but he does have one of those wins here (2007) and is on pace to have his best Sprint Cup Series finish as he currently sits in 10th in the standings. He has just two double-digit finishes over his 12 starts this year and is running hot as he comes off his best race of the year when he led 131 laps in Charlotte, eventually falling to fifth in the pack. He knows how to navigate this track as evidenced by his two past pole wins and has added another seven top-10s on top of his 2007 win. Truex Jr. has been the best racer this year without a win and although it doesn’t happen often for him, one should be coming very soon.
Jeff Gordon (15/1) – Gordon is by far the most experienced driver in the field this week as his 44 visits to Dover are 12 more than his next closest competitor, Matt Kenseth (32). He has an average finish of 11.4 in that time and has 25 top-10s, 18 top-fives and five victories; with his latest coming last year at the AAA 400. He hasn’t earned a win just yet in his farewell season, but has owned the lead plenty of times and has finished in the top-five at three of his past six races. Gordon may not be at the level he once was, but he has the fourth-fastest green flag speed (144.169 MPH) here in his career and should be able to dot the top of the leaderboard throughout the day.
Greg Biffle (75/1) – This is one of Biffle’s favorite tracks as he is the fifth-best racer here according to driver rating (97.4) and has grabbed a win at both the FedEx 400 (2005) and AAA 400 (2008). He has 517 career quality passes (fourth-most) when at Dover and also ranks top-five in average green flag speed (144.050 MPH) and fastest laps run (435). Biffle is coming off his best stretch of the year in which he has placed in the top-13 at each of the past four races, winning the Sprint Showdown and coming up just short in Charlotte with a runner-up performance. The 45-year-old has 19 career Sprint Cup wins and could surprise many this week in Delaware.
Clint Bowyer (75/1) – Bowyer is another racer who has had tons of success in Dover and in 18 appearances owns 11 top-10 finishes, but has not been able to add to his eight career wins when at this venue. It hasn’t been a great 2015 campaign for the 35-year-old, but his 92.5 driver rating in Dover (eighth-best) should allow him to do better than expected when all is said and done. Look for Bowyer to add to his solid resume at this track and compete for his third top-10 of the year.
Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson favored in FedEx 400
By Justin Hartling
Despite currently trending in different directions, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are favored to win the FedEx 400.
Harvick has finished in the top 10 in each of the past five Sprint Cup races, including three second place finishes. Johnson, on the other-hand, has finished 15 and 40 in the past two races while amassing a mere four points in the standings.
Below is a complete list of odds courtesy of the Westgate LV Superbook:
KEVIN HARVICK 9/2
JIMMIE JOHNSON 9/2
DENNY HAMLIN 5/1
KURT BUSCH 10/1
MATT KENSETH 10/1
KYLE BUSCH 10/1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 10/1
CARL EDWARDS 12/1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 15/1
JOEY LOGANO 15/1
JEFF GORDON 20/1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20/1
KYLE LARSON 20/1
KASEY KAHNE 30/1
JAMIE McMURRAY 40/1
GREG BIFFLE 50/1
PAUL MENARD 75/1
RYAN NEWMAN 100/1
TONY STEWART 100/1
DAVID RAGAN 100/1
CLINT BOWYER 100/1
AUSTIN DILLON 100/1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300/1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300/1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300/1
DANICA PATRICK 500/1
TREVOR BAYNE 500/1
SAM HORNISH JR 500/1
CASEY MEARS 500/1
FIELD 500/1
Warriors vs. Cavs NBA Finals is a double-edged sword for sportsbooks
By Jason Logan
When the final horn sounded on the Golden State Warriors’ 104-90 victory over the Houston Rockets Wednesday night, plenty of sportsbooks – both online and in Nevada – put their heads in their hands and let out a heavy sigh.
The 2015 NBA Finals is a perfect storm when it comes to the NBA futures market. The Warriors and Cavaliers held the most liability for bookmakers across the industry heading into the playoffs, with some books exposed on Golden State’s sudden rise in the West or caught with their pants down before LeBron James returned to Cleveland last summer. And some unfortunate books, are looking at a futures loss no matter the outcome.
“We’re screwed either way,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.
Childs says the liability on the Cavs is far more than the Warriors because basketball bettors jumped on Cleveland’s early title odds last summer, when rumors started to swirl about James returning home. Cleveland was as big as 60/1 and people pounded it, looking for that added value – if LeBron signed. He, of course, did.
“Hindsight’s 20/20 and my bosses aren’t all that pleased with me right now,” says Childs, “but we’re talking June and July of last year. And while I was proven wrong, the Cavs had to overcome a lot just to get here. Regardless, we’re rooting hard for the Warriors even though we do lose a bit of money on them as well.”
Childs isn’t alone when it comes to losing money on Golden State. Many Nevada bookmakers are suddenly Cavs fans for this final due to the California crowds coming in and betting the Warriors to win.
According to Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill, action on Golden State was constant throughout the season, walking their futures odds from +2,500 to their current price as -240 series favorites (Cleveland +200) at most shops.
Bogdanovich says the NBA futures book would be a small to medium loser on Golden State, with a win on Cleveland, due to William Hill’s sportsbooks outside of Las Vegas, namely those up north in Tahoe, Reno and right on the California border.
Those books see a lot of California bettors coming to town to watch and wager on their Warriors. But, in the same breath, having Golden State in the Finals and its fans flooding the book is good for business, be it action on the NBA or basketball fans making a few other wagers on baseball and NFL futures while they wait for the playoff games to start.
“It’s great for business – 100 percent,” says Bogdanovich. “That’s why we’re in the position we’re in, because of those books up north, but having (Golden State) in the Finals is good for business. And while it would have been nice to have Houston in the final, (the Warriors) are a great story to get behind. Rookie coach taking the team to the Finals for the first time since 1975. That’s a good story.”
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook was on one side of the fence when the season started, holding liability on the Cavaliers’ NBA title odds, which were as big as 60/1 when 2014-15 NBA futures opened. They were able to trim down that liability over the course of the season, but now would be a small loser on Golden State.
“Most of the early money that came in on the Cavs was at 20/1 and then we dropped them pretty quickly, down to 5/2 where they stood most of the season,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook. “We were able to work that liability off. But with the Warriors, they opened at 25/1 and their consistently good play got them support all season.”
The matchup, regardless of how it impacts the futures market, is the one the NBA wanted and bookmakers can’t deny the appeal of a Cleveland-Golden State clash for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. That should help drum up a bigger TV audience for the Finals, which start on June 4, and a bigger audience means more betting action.
“This is a fantastic matchup for betting action because you’ve got all the glitz and glamour with LeBron vs. Curry,” John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker. “Our biggest concern is the casual fan and bettor losing interest and forgetting about the series due to the long layoff.”
The star power of James as well as the public appeal of current MVP Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ up-tempo offense is a tremendous blend of factors that should give the 2015 NBA Finals a boost. Last year’s Finals, between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, recorded a five-year low in TV ratings for the NBA championship round (9.3 rating) and was the ninth-lowest rated NBA Finals since 1976.
“The Warriors are the most fun team to watch, playing with such great flow from a major market in Northern California and the first true West Coast team since the Lakers in 2010 to represent the West,” says Childs. “It’s going to be a great, great finals no matter what the outcome is.”
Bogdanovich agrees and says a solid matchup in the NBA Finals will help stave off the “Dog Days of Summer”, when sports bettors are pretty much left with nothing but baseball until football begins in September.
“If this were a garbage matchup in the Finals, the ‘Dog Days’ would officially be on.”
Poker pick up
The World Series of Poker takes over Las Vegas, starting this week and that means plenty of big-money bankrolls looking to kill time between tournament games. Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties, is hoping those WSOP players find their way to the sportsbook for the NBA Finals.
“It’s such a tremendous matchup from a betting perspective and if we can get some of those guys involved, the handle on this could be really, really good,” Rood.
Under-whelming Finals
The Warriors’ presence in the NBA Finals has forced books to open the Game 1 total at 203.5 points. That’s a massive number compared to the average Game 1 Over/Under since the 2006 NBA Finals. In that span, the Finals opener has had an average betting total of 192.56 points with teams combining for an average of 182 points in those contests. That’s led to a 2-6-1 Over/Under record in the last nine Game 1s of the NBA Finals.
Overall, NBA Finals games have finished 19-29-3 O/U since 2006, with an average of 187.14 points scored versus an average betting total of 190.3 points. The only two Finals scenarios that have favored the Over are Game 5 and Game 6, going 5-3 O/U (202 pts/191.31 total) and 3-2 O/U (193 pts/189.7 total) respectively in that time frame.
Sweep the leg!
The Cavaliers are just the eighth team to sweep their conference championship series since 1991. The last seven NBA teams coming off a series sweep in the conference finals are just 23-17 SU, 21-19 ATS, and 14-26 O/U in the NBA Finals.
Of those past seven teams, four have gone on to win the NBA title – ’91 Bulls, ’96 Bulls. ’99 Spurs, and ’01 Lakers. The last two teams to sweep their respective conference championship, the ’03 Nets and ’13 Spurs, join the ’98 Jazz as the three teams to follow a series sweep with a loss in the NBA Finals.
Best of the Best
Stephen Curry is a trying to join an elite group of NBA players who have won the regular season MVP, Finals MVP and the NBA Championship all in the same season. That would put him up there with names like Willis Reed, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and his 2015 finals opponent LeBron James.
Oddsmakers are pegging Curry as a -200 favorite to earn Finals MVP honors, with James set at +225. Behind those two superstars are Kyrie Irving +1,200, Draymond Green +1,400, Klay Thompson +1,600, J.R. Smith +8,000, Tristan Thompson +10,000, Andrew Bogut +15,000 and Harrison Barnes +15,000.
While it’s tough to look beyond Curry and James, last year’s NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat proved profitable for those Finals MVP bettors who took a flyer on Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, who entered the 2014 NBA Finals as a +1,500 underdog to win the top individual honor.
The health of Thompson is obviously a big factor in his current MVP prices. As of last week, Thomson was as low as +800 to win the Bill Russell Award. But since suffering a concussion in Game 5 versus Houston Wednesday, his status for Game 1 on June 4 is up in the air.
Warriors announce Thompson has a concussion
Stephen Campbell
Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson has a concussion and is out indefinitely, the team announced Friday.
Thompson will not be able to return to action until he goes through the NBA’s concussion protocol which leaves his status for Game 1 versus the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday in doubt.
There is currently no timetable for his return. Prior to the official announcement, the Warriors were -6.
Line moving towards Cavs in NBA Finals
Stephen Campbell
The line for the NBA Finals has been jumping up and down at online sportsbook Pinnacle Sports.
Pinnacle opened the Golden State Warriors as 6-point favorites versus the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game 1, but has been dropping that number to -5.5 periodically throughout the week. As of 9:30 a.m. ET Saturday, it was sitting at -5.5.
The total has fallen a full point to 202.5 as of this writing.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Allen Eastman
Take San Francisco (-1.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, May 31)
I will back Madison Bumgarner. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he will be facing a Braves team that has struggled against left-handed pitching all season long. The Giants are almost as hot as I am right now! Heading into Tuesday they had won 10 of 12 games, and this team looks like the defending champions should look right now. The Giants are 21-8 in Bumgarner’s last 29 starts and 21-6 in his last 27 home starts. Bumgarner is going to dominate once again in this one, and this one will be worth a runline play. Go with the Giants.