Sunday’s NCAAB Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet
The NCAA tournament continues the Round of 32 Sunday, news, notes and trends into one betting cheat sheet.
***** EAST REGION
♦(7) Michigan State Spartans vs. (2) Virginia Cavaliers (-5)
Second-seeded Virginia hopes to avoid having a promising season cut short by Michigan State for the second year in a row when the Cavaliers face the No. 7 seed Spartans in the NCAA Tournament round of 32 on Sunday in Charlotte, N.C. The Spartans ousted the top-seeded Cavaliers in the regional semifinals a year ago. Michigan State is trying to reach the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive year and the seventh time in eight seasons.
Virginia survived a scare in its opening game for the second year in a row, holding off 15th-seeded Belmont 79-67 on Friday behind 22 points from Malcolm Brogdon. “It was good for us to be in a game like that,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett told reporters. “Our young men have been in a lot of games like that where we had to just outlast and stay in there and make some plays and even overcome some of our mistakes.” The Spartans coughed up most of a 12-point lead in the final two minutes Friday before hanging on for a 70-63 win over No. 10 seed Georgia.
TRENDS:
*Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
*Cavaliers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
*Over is 7-1 in Spartans last 8 overall.
*Under is 11-5-1 in Cavaliers last 17 games following a S.U. win.
♦(11) Dayton Flyers vs. (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-4.5)
The Big 12 did not have a great showing in the NCAA Tournament round of 64, but Oklahoma is ready to carry some weight for the Conference. The third-seeded Sooners will try to advance to the East regional semifinals when they take on No. 11 seed Dayton on Sunday in Columbus, Ohio. Oklahoma is into the round of 32 after failing to reach the weekend in the last two years, advancing after fellow No. 3 seeded Big 12 teams Baylor and Iowa State fell on Thursday.
To reach the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2009, the Sooners will have to figure out a way around a Flyers squad that enjoyed a considerable homecourt advantage in the round of 64 while knocking off Providence. Dayton was one of the final at-large teams selected by the committee but got the benefit of playing the first round at home and the second and third round 70 miles away in Columbus. “It’s powerful,” Flyers coach Archie Miller told reporters of the atmosphere in Columbus. “I think our fans continue to be on front and center stage right now. It’s a great time of the year for them to be on front and center stage. But knowing that we’re playing in Columbus, I had a hunch what it was going to feel like.”
TRENDS:
*Flyers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
*Sooners are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
*Under is 6-1 in Flyers last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
*Under is 10-1 in Sooners last 11 neutral site games.
♦(5) Northern Iowa Panthers vs. (4) Louisville Cardinals (+2.5)
Northern Iowa should be well-rested Sunday when the fifth-seeded Panthers face No. 4 seed Louisville in Seattle for a trip to the Sweet 16. Nine Northern Iowa players tallied at least 16 minutes in Friday’s 71-54 victory over Wyoming, while four of Louisville’s starters clocked at least 37 minutes in a 57-55 win over UC Irvine. Louisville has struggled offensively all season and faces a stiff test against the Panthers, who boast the nation’s fourth-best scoring defense at 54.3 points per game.
The Panthers advanced past Wyoming despite a poor shooting game by Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Seth Tuttle, who was 4-of-12 for 14 points along with nine rebounds. Sunday’s key battle features Tuttle against Louisville forward Montrezl Harrell, who averages 15.5 points along with a team-high 9.3 rebounds. Tuttle, a 6-8 senior forward, leads Northern Iowa in scoring (15.3), rebounds (6.9), assists (3.3) and blocks (0.6) while shooting 60.5 percent from the field.
TRENDS:
*Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
*Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games following a ATS loss.
***** WEST REGION
♦(8) Oregon Ducks vs. (1) Wisconsin Badgers (-12)
Wisconsin earned the No. 1 seed in the West region of the NCAA Tournament and lived up to that lofty billing in the round of 64. The Badgers will continue their march to a second straight Final Four when they face No. 8 seed Oregon in the round of 32 for the second straight year on Sunday in Omaha, Neb. Wisconsin got 19 points from Frank Kaminsky in the 84-77 victory over the Ducks last season, and the seven-footer is primed for another star turn this spring.
Oregon held a 12-point halftime lead in last year’s meeting but the Badgers outscored the Ducks 48-28 in the second half to grab the win. “That game last year was awesome, one of the best games I’ve ever been a part of,” Badgers forward Sam Dekker told reporters. “Happy to get out of that one with a victory. It was a hard-fought game. But they’re going to come in with the same intensity, they’re going to play hard, try to hit us in the mouth right away. And they have the talent to do it.” Ducks guard Joseph Young scored 29 points in that meeting and went for 27 in Friday’s round of 64 win over Oklahoma State.
TRENDS:
*Ducks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
*Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pacific-12.
*Under is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 overall.
***** MIDWEST REGION
♦(7) Wichita State Shockers vs. (2) Kansas Jayhawks (-1.5)
Wichita State has been unsuccessful in its efforts to schedule Kansas in the regular season but the seventh-seeded Shockers will get a crack at the second-seeded Jayhawks on Sunday in Omaha, Neb., with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. The in-state programs haven’t met since Jan. 6, 1993 – Kansas won 103-54 – despite persistent attempts by Wichita State Gregg Marshall to land a game with Kansas. “I think there are certain games that are big,” Jayhawks coach Bill Self said at a press conference, “and I think this is one of those games that’s bigger.”
Players are always more interested in playing the games than the different agendas of college coaches so count Shockers guard Ron Baker as someone ready to see the Jayhawks on the court. “It’s a big thing for the state of Kansas – a lot of excitement, a lot of houses are going to be divided,” Baker said at a press conference. “It’s just going to be exciting. As a player, being from Kansas, I’m just really, really fortunate to be in this game. Obviously, these type of games don’t happen a whole lot.” Wichita State posted an 81-76 victory over Indiana on Friday, while Kansas rolled to a 75-56 win over New Mexico State.
TRENDS:
*Shockers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
*Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Missouri Valley.
*Over is 4-1 in Shockers last 5 vs. Big 12.
*Under is 4-0 in Jayhawks last 4 overall.
♦(5) West Virginia Mountaineers vs. (4) Maryland Terrapins (Pick)
A likely matchup with mighty Kentucky looms in the Sweet 16 for the winner of Sunday’s NCAA Tournament third-round contest between No. 4 seed Maryland and fifth-seeded West Virginia. As long as the Wildcats get past Cincinnati on Sunday, they’ll be heavy favorites in the regional semifinals against either the Terrapins or Mountaineers – both of whom are coming off close victories in their NCAA Tournament openers. The crowd at Columbus, Ohio should be entertained by two of the nation’s top point guards.
Maryland freshman Melo Trimble had 14 points and 10 rebounds in his team’s 65-62 win against No. 13 Valparaiso on Friday and averages team highs of 16.3 points and 3.1 assists. Juwan Staten (14.5 points, 4.7 assists) is the floor general for West Virginia and recorded 15 points and seven assists in Friday’s 68-62 triumph against 12th-seeded Buffalo. The Mountaineers last reached the Sweet 16 en route to the Final Four in 2010, while the Terps have gone 1-1 in their last four trips to the Big Dance, last reaching the Sweet 16 in 2003.
TRENDS:
*Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
*Terrapins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 overall.
*Over is 5-0 in Terrapins last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
***** SOUTH REGION:
♦(8) San Diego State Aztecs vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)
Prior to Friday’s second-round victory over Robert Morris, Quinn Cook was the only current Duke player that had played a key role in helping his team secure a NCAA Tournament win. With its recent quick exits from the Big Dance in the rearview mirror, the top-seeded Blue Devils eye a berth in the Sweet 16 on Sunday when they meet San Diego State in the third round of the South region in Charlotte, N.C. Cook was a starter on the 2013 Elite Eight team in that loss to eventual national champion Louisville, but also witnessed Duke’s opening-round losses to Lehigh (2012) and Mercer (2014).
The senior guard made sure his young teammates – four of the Blue Devils’ eight regulars are freshmen – did not suffer the same fate against the Colonials, hitting six 3-pointers in an 85-56 victory. The eighth-seeded Aztecs, who rank second in the country in scoring defense (53.5 points), also spent Friday changing perceptions, going 9-of-22 beyond the arc en route to posting their fourth-highest point total of the season in a 76-64 triumph over St. John’s. “(When) we score this many points, we’ve got a chance against anybody,” Aztecs coach Steve Fisher said after his team improved to 9-1 this season when scoring at least 70 points.
TRENDS:
*Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
*Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Over is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
*Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 overall.
♦(7) Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)
Gonzaga has lost only twice all season – by a total of six points – but now the second-seeded Bulldogs must contend with arguably the most impressive team from the NCAA Tournament’s round of 64. Seventh-seeded Iowa won its tourney opener by 31 points, which certainly caught the Bulldogs’ attention heading into their meeting in Seattle on Sunday with a berth in the Sweet 16 on the line. Gonzaga opened with a hard-fought 86-76 victory against No. 15 seed North Dakota State, while Iowa throttled No. 10 seed Davidson, 83-52.
Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the top forwards in the country – Gonzaga’s Kyle Wiltjer and Iowa’s Aaron White. Wiltjer is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer at 16.9 points and shot 8-of-12 en route to 23 points on Friday. White (16.3 points) was even better in the round of 64, shooting 11-of-14 as part of a 26-point performance – his sixth straight game with at least 20 points.
TRENDS:
*Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
*Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
*Under is 4-0 in Hawkeyes last 4 overall.
*Over is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 neutral site games.
Michigan State faces Virginia Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (24-11) vs. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (30-3)
Time Warner Cable Arena – Charlotte, NC
NCAA Tournament – Round of 32
Tip-off: Sunday, 12:10 p.m. ET
Line: Virginia -5.0
Both Michigan State and Virginia will be playing for a spot in the Sweet 16 when the teams clash Sunday.
Here is the betting preview for this matchup:
Michigan State faced Georgia in the second round of the NCAA tournament and came away with a 70-63 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Spartans have won five of their past six games SU, covering in just three of those victories. Virginia faced Belmont in its second round game and won 79-67 as a 17-point favorite. This was the most points Virginia scored since putting up 89 in a double overtime game against Miami on Jan. 3. The Cavaliers have, however, failed to cover in three of their past four games. These teams last met on Mar. 28, 2014, when Michigan State beat Virginia 61-59 as a 2.5-point favorite in last year’s Sweet 16. The Spartans also won the only other meeting between these teams on Dec. 4, 2002. Michigan State is 22-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less since 1997. Virginia, however, is 11-3 ATS when playing on one or less days of rest over the past three seasons. Michigan State will be without F Javon Bess (Foot), who is out for the season. Virginia is not currently dealing with any serious injuries and will be at full health in this one.
Michigan State has been a very good two-way team this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd in NCAA) and allowing just 63.4 PPG (89th in NCAA) on the defensive end. The leader of this team is G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG), who fills up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Valentine is a very good outside shooter (42% 3PT) and also knows when he should be attacking and when he should be facilitating. Over the past two games, Valentine is averaging 16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.0 APG. He struggled against Virginia a year ago though, scoring just three points in 35 minutes. If he does not get it going on Sunday then his team won’t have much of a chance of upsetting the Cavaliers. G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is another guy who will really need to get hot on Sunday. Trice is another very good shooter in this backcourt (37% 3PT) and he can break down his defender off the dribble as well. He had 15 points and six assists against Georgia on Friday and must do more of the same against Virginia. He struggled against the team last year though, scoring just five points. One guy who is still on the roster and destroyed Virginia last year is F Branden Dawson (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 SPG). Dawson is a high motor player who has the strength and toughness to bully teams inside. He had 24 points and 10 boards against Virginia in the tournament a year ago and will need to find similar success Sunday.
Virginia has been one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season, allowing just 51.2 PPG (1st in NCAA). The team is scoring just 65.3 PPG (225th in NCAA) offensively, but it does shoot a solid 46.3% (53rd in NCAA) from the field. The Cavaliers actually got themselves involved in a shootout on Friday, winning 79-67 against Belmont. G Malcolm Brogdon (14.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 APG) has been on fire for Virginia lately, averaging 23.5 PPG over the past two contests. Brogdon really knows how to attack the rim and he’ll need to continue to beat his defenders off the dribble moving forward. He had 17 points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals in the tournament game against the Spartans a year ago and must be that active again on Sunday. One major positive for this Cavaliers team is that the break before the tournament allowed G Justin Anderson (12.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to get healthy. Anderson has dealt with a number of injuries this season, but he had 15 points and five boards against Belmont and looked the best he has in months for the Cavaliers. He is a marksman from the outside (47% 3PT) and will need to shoot well if this team is going to make an extended tournament run. G London Perrantes (6.5 PPG, 4.7 APG, 2.5 RPG) is the floor general for the Cavaliers. Over the past two games, he’s averaging 10.5 PPG and 3.0 APG in 33.0 MPG. Perrantes will need to knock down his open shots and continue to find his teammates in the right places in this game. F Anthony Gill (11.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is going to need to bring a lot of physicality to this game. He’s going to be matched up against Dawson for a majority of this game and he must hold his own or this team is in serious danger of being upset.
EZWINNERS
NCAAB
3* (723) Michigan St +5
3* (731) Wichita St +1.5
3* (730) Oklahoma -$185
3* (735) Northern Iowa -$140
ARLON SPORTS
3/22
Wichita St +2
Gonzaga -5.5
MADDUX SPORTS
10* Wichita St +2
STEPHEN NOVER
TRIPLE STAR CBB GAME OF WEEK! — VIRGINIA -5
Marco D’Angelo, Sports Cheetah and Bryan Leonard from WagerTalk
Free NBA Pick on San Antonio Spurs vs. Atlanta Hawks from the Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia.
San Antonio Spurs+2
*winning by 3 or more.
JACK CLAYTON
NIT Game of the Year!
3/22 06:30 PM CB (743) RHODE ISLAND VS (744) STANFORD
Take: (744) STANFORD
Reason: A 3,000 mile road trip for Rhode Island, across the country crossing three time zones. The Rams average just 67.7 points while shooting 30.1 percent from three-point range. This is a tough matchup against a Stanford club that is one of four Pac-12 teams to have appeared in four consecutive postseasons. Arizona has earned three straight NCAA berths after reaching the 2012 NIT. Chasson Randle was named an All-Pac-12 First Team pick for the second straight season, as Stanford was represented with three honorees overall. Anthony Brown and Stefan Nastic received honorable mention accolades. Marcus Allen scored a career-high 22 points and Chasson Randle added 18 to lift Stanford past UC Davis 77-64 on Tuesday in the opening round of the Postseason NIT. Stanford is 14-3 at home this season and 90-30 at Maples Pavilion under head coach Johnny Dawkins, so grab home court.
Play (744) STANFORD!