NFL Football Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews
Plenty of drama heading into the final Sunday of the 2014 regular season with one wild-card spot open in the AFC and three division titles still up for grabs in the NFC. Two NFC divisions will be decided in head-to-head matchups: Carolina at Atlanta for the sorry South Division — the only playoff spot still up for grabs in the NFC — and Detroit at Green Bay for the North. At least the Lions-Packers loser still makes the playoffs, but it slips from a likely No. 2 seed all the way to a No. 6. While New England has clinched the top seed in the AFC, it’s up for grabs in the NFC but should be taken for the second straight year by Seattle. I would certainly be OK with a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.
Here are a few Week 16 opening lines.
Buffalo at New England (-3.5, 44): For those books that posted lines before the Monday night game, New England had been a 10.5-point favorite. That changed dramatically because Denver’s loss in Cincinnati clinched the top seed for the Patriots. So they have no reason to play their starters against the Bills. No word yet on what Bill Belichick will do, but he also might not want his key guys having two weeks off and then be out of sync in the divisional round. I would definitely not play injury-prone tight end Rob Gronkowski regardless. It’s a shame for the Bills as they could have had a potential layup game here with a chance to make the playoffs if not for last week’s loss in Oakland. Buffalo still might have motivation to finish 9-7 for the franchise’s first winning record since 2004. Cleveland will be rooting against Buffalo as it gets the Bills’ first-round pick next year, so another loss can only help improve draft position potentially. The pick: Need to wait and see what Belichick does — and he’s not exactly open about his plans … ever — but I lean taking anything over 3 points.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-9, 42.5): The Ravens, particularly Joe Flacco, laid a major egg last week in Houston, and now they don’t control their playoff destiny. Baltimore will get in with a victory and a San Diego loss in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are favored in that one. And boy do the Ravens potentially catch a major break here. They won’t be facing Johnny Manziel, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. They probably won’t be facing Brian Hoyer, either, as he suffered a shoulder injury in relief of Manziel last week (although Hoyer hasn’t been ruled out). Thus, it could be undrafted rookie Connor Shaw, who was called up from the practice squad. He wasn’t even very good at South Carolina. Cleveland was so desperate at the position it rang up Rex Grossman, but he declined. The pick: This should be a blowout for Baltimore. Go under as I don’t see Cleveland scoring more than single digits even if Hoyer somehow plays.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+4, 47): Talk about two teams who don’t give a s**t for a game. The Saints will be 100 percent deflated after losing last week at home to be eliminated from the playoffs even though they could finish with the most wins in the NFC South (if Panthers and Falcons have an unlikely tie). Bucs coach Lovie Smith should sit every starter he has and play scrubs. Why? A loss guarantees Tampa Bay the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and a choice between Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Florida State’s Jameis Winston. A win could hand it to Tennessee. So with both teams going through the motions, I expect a major slopfest. The pick: Love the “under.” Lean Saints.
Carolina at Atlanta (-4, 47.5): The winner of this game will join the 2010 Seattle Seahawks as the worst division champion in NFL history in a non-strike shortened campaign. One thing to keep in mind: That 7-9 Seahawks team did pull a home upset (vs. New Orleans) in the wild-card round of the playoffs. I wouldn’t put it past either the Panthers or Falcons to do so if they get to host Arizona next week, as expected, because the Cardinals have no quarterbacks. Atlanta won 19-17 in Carolina in Week 11 when the Panthers missed two late kicks (one blocked). Carolina had won the previous three meetings. The pick: I think Falcons win by a field goal, so will take the points. Go under.
Arizona at San Francisco (-6, 36.5): It’s really too bad what happened to the Cardinals’ quarterbacks because they probably would have gotten the No. 1 seed if Carson Palmer stayed on his feet all season. Maybe even with Drew Stanton. Ryan Lindley might be the worst starting QB in the NFL this decade, and he was totally lost in last week’s blowout loss to Seattle. So the team reportedly is going to fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas. He can’t possibly be as bad as Lindley and at least can run a bit. The Cards have an outside chance at the NFC West, but I don’t see Seattle losing at home to St. Louis. So expect Arizona to drop to No. 5 and travel next week. Stanton surely won’t be ready for that. Meanwhile, it’s the finale for 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who is expected to be let go on Black Monday. Then it’s off to either Michigan or Oakland. The 49ers front office can’t wait to be rid of him. The pick: Niners don’t care, but I can’t pick a rookie QB to win on the road in Week 17 in his first start. Give the points and, yes, go under that absurd total.
Today’s NFL Picks
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Bengals (10-4-1 SU) head to Pittsburgh on Sunday night to face a Steelers team that is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 6.
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2).
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
Game 301-302: Detroit at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.879; Green Bay 143.196
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Under
Game 303-304: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.369; Houston 132.756
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 10 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10 1/2); Over
Game 305-306: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.320; Pittsburgh 140.294
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over
Game 307-308: Indianapolis at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.666; Tennessee 125.039
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7 1/2); Under
Game 309-310: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.532; Baltimore 134.116
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+10); Over
Game 311-312: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.211; New England 146.708
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under
Game 313-314: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 132.340; Miami 134.627
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6); Over
Game 315-316: Carolina at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.447; Atlanta 136.034
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under
Game 317-318: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 121.846; Minnesota 132.623
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under
Game 319-320: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.997; Kansas City 132.960
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over
Game 321-322: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.032; NY Giants 132.498
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over
Game 323-324: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.021; Washington 126.173
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Under
Game 325-326: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.743; Tampa Bay 128.389
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
Game 327-328: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 133.176; Seattle 142.991
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 10; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 13; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+13); Under
Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.972; San Francisco 130.742
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7); Over
Game 331-332: Oakland at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.535; Denver 143.159
Dunkel Line: Denver by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-14); Under
2014 NFL page
Week 17
Lions (11-4) @ Packers (11-4)– Detroit lost last 20 visits to Lambeau; Packers’ QB was Mike Tomczak last time Lions won here, year before Favre got to Titletown. Winner will be NFC North champ, should get bye; both are in playoffs. Detroit won first meeting at home 19-7 (-2.5) in Week 3, holding Pack to 223 yards, their lowest total of season. Pack is 1-4 on turf, 9-0 on grass; they’re 5-2 as home favorites this season, winning by 7-6 in non-covers. Detroit won last four games, allowing 15.5 to non-playoff teams; they’re 0-3 as underdogs this year, losing those games by 17-8-25 points. Home favorites are 6-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Under is 12-2 in last 14 Detroit games, 4-1 in last five Packer tilts.
Jaguars (3-12) @ Texans (8-7)– Get queasy laying 9.5 points with team using 4th-string QB; Texans won three of last four games, holding Ravens to 211 yards last week; they’ve got a +11 turnover ratio in last eight games. Houston is 6-2 in last eight games vs Jaguars, winning six of last eight played here (five by 10+ points). Jags are 0-2 in game following a win this season, losing both games 27-13; they’re 2-4-1 as road dogs this year. Texans had seven red zone drives last week, had one TD, six FGs; week of practice should help Keenum, who was picked up last week. Favorites are 9-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Houston needs to win, and Chargers/Ravens to lose to make playoffs. Four of last five Jaguar games, five of last six Texan games stayed under total.
Colts (11-4) @ Titans (2-13)– Tennessee will probably get #1 pick in draft, so no way do they (or should they) win this game; Titans (+7.5) lost 41-17 at Indy in Week 4, with Colts outgaining them, 498-261, converting 7-14 on third down. Colts won 11 of last 12 in series, but struggled to win 19-13/30-27 in last two visits here. Titans are down to #3 QB Whitehurst here, with Jordan Palmer on bench; Tennessee lost its last nine games, is 0-5 vs spread in last five- they scored total of 31 points in last three. Colts are 3-0 vs the spread in game following a loss this year, winning those games by 27-16-20 points. Faves are 9-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year. Four of last five Indy games, last three Titan games stayed under.
Browns (7-8) @ Ravens (9-6)– Baltimore needs win/Charger loss to make playoffs after their faceplant in Houston last week; Ravens are 4-1 vs spread in game following a loss this season, Cleveland lost its last four games, but is 5-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 3-18-16-4 points. Baltimore is 4-3 as home favorite, 0-2 in last two. After so much talk about Hoyer/Manziel, Browns start Connor Shaw as QB here; he played in 43 games at South Carolina in college; this is his first-ever NFL experience. Dogs are 6-3 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. 10 of last 11 Cleveland games, last three Raven games stayed under the total. Again, if Chargers win concurrent game at Arrowhead, this becomes irrelevant for Ravens, but if Chiefs win, this game is Baltimore’s season.
Bills (8-7) @ Patriots (12-3)– Game opened NE -8.5, is now at 4.5 or 5.0 raising ???’s as to how much Brady-Gronkowski-Edelman will play, with nothing at stake here for Pats, who beat Buffalo 37-22 (-3) in first meeting in Week 6. NE had +3 turnover ratio which led to 12-yard edge in field position. Bills had chance to make playoffs until losing last week at 3-12 Oakland, terrilbe loss; they are 1-21 in last 22 series games, losing last 13 visits here (three of last five by 8 or less points); Patriots scored 31+ points five of last six meetings. Buffalo is playing for first winning season since ’04; they’re 4-2 as dogs on road this season, losing last three SU by 13-7-2 points. Six of last seven Buffalo games, four of last five Patriot games stayed under total.
Jets (3-12) @ Dolphins (8-7)– Home side lost eight of last ten series games; Jets are 3-1 in last four visits here, 5-2 in last seven, but Rex Ryan era comes to sorry end, with Jets losing despite giving decent efforts– their last four games were all decided by five or less points or in OT. Miami won first meeting 16-13 (-7) four weeks ago, running ball for 277 yards but averaging just 3.3 ypa. Dolphins are playing for winning season; coach Philbin will be back next year– Miami is 2-3 as home favorite this year, 13-32 since ’03– they won 37-35 over Vikings last week, blocking punt for safety in last minute. Fish allowed 34.7 ppg in last three games, but Jets averaged 14.4 ppg in last four. Six of last seven Jet games stayed under the total.
Carolina (6-8-1) @ Falcons (6-9)– Winner here wins NFC South, Panthers advance if the teams tie; Atlanta won last four series games, winning 19-17 (-1) in Week 11. Panthers lost five of last six visits here, winning 21-20 LY; they won first two games this season, won last three games, went 1-8-1 in between. Carolina allowed 13.3 ppg in its last three games, giving up four TDs on 42 drives; they’re 4-3 as road underdogs and have Newton back at QB- they’ve run ball for 194.8 ypg last four weeks. Falcons are +10 in turnovers the last seven games, holding three of last four opponents under 60 yards rushing. Seven of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total; last six Carolina road games went over total. Panthers are 3-6 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.
Bears (5-10) @ Vikings (6-9)– Cutler is back at QB as Bears try for damage control after horrible second half of season; they’ve lost last four games, losing last three on road by a combined 140-54 margin. Minnesota covered five in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 3-0 as home favorites this year; seven of their last nine games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Chicago lost 21-14/23-20 in last two visits to Twin Cities, as home side won last five series games; Bears won eight of last ten series games, winning 21-13 (-3) in Week 11, outgaining Vikings 468-243 in game Minnesota led 10-0 early on. Vikings have scored 30+ points in three of last four games overall; they’re 17 of last 35 on third down, as rookie QB Bridgewater is turning out to be a keeper.
Chargers (9-6) @ Chiefs (8-7)– Alex Smith (lacerated spleen) is out; Chase Daniel makes his 2nd NFL start here. San Diego makes playoffs with win; Chiefs need win and help to make it. KC (+4) won 23-20 at San Diego in Week 7, running for 154 yards in a game they trailed 14-10 at half. Bolts won four of last five series games; last three were decided by three points. Chargers’ last three wins were all by three or less points; over last 10+ years, they’re 8-1-3 as a road underdog in division games. Chiefs lost four of last five games, are 4-1 as home favorites this year, after being 5-19-1 from ’07-’13. Red flag for Chargers: they’ve lost field position in last five games, four by 8+ yards; teams that lost field position by 10+ yards this season are 4-85 SU. Four of last five Charger road games went over total; three of last four Chief games stayed under.
Eagles (9-6) @ Giants (6-9)– Philly (-3) blanked Giants 27-0 in Week 6, running ball for 203 yards, but Foles was QB then and Beckham had yet to establish himself as one of best WRs in NFL. Eagles won 10 of last 13 series games, are 6-1 in last seven visits here but they’re only third team since ’90 to be at 9-3 or better after 12 games yet not make it to playoffs. Philly lost last three games, allowing 29.7 ppg (11 TDs on last 32 drives). Giants won last three games, scoring 16 TDs on 57 drives in last five; they scored 32.3 ppg in last three games, all vs losing teams. Big Blue is +5 in turnovers last three games, has converted 38 of last 79 (48.1%) on third down. Eagles have 21 penalties in last two games, for 197 yards. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Eagle games, 6-3 last nine Giant games.
Cowboys (11-4) @ Redskins (4-11)– Washington snapped Cowboys’ 6-game winning streak with 20-17 (+9) OT win in Week 8; Redskins are 4-8 in last 12 series games, with Dallas winning four of last six visits here. Series has been swept in four of last five years. That said, Cowboys are NFC East champs, are playing for first round bye which would be big for Romo’s back/Murray’s hand. Dallas is 7-0 on road, 5-5 vs spread as a favorite; they scored 40.3 ppg in winning last three games, with +7 turnover ratio (9-2). Redskins snapped six-game skid by eliminating Eagles last week; Griffin has played better in last two games, but they still have only three TDs on last eight red zone drives– they’re nine of last 40 on third down plays, which has hampered their field position.
Saints (6-9) @ Buccaneers (2-13)– Saints (-10) needed OT to beat Bucs 37-31 in Week 5, outgaining Tampa 511-314 while surviving three INTs (-2 ratio). Saints won last six in series, winning four of last five visits here (won 16-14 in T-storm here LY). Bucs could get #1 pick in draft with loss here, and can’t drop below #2, so no way should they win this game. Tampa Bay lost five in row, 10 of last 11 games; they’re 1-3 as home dogs this year, 7-18-1 as home dogs since ’09. Saints lost five of last seven games, allowing 30+ in four of last five, but they won last three road games by 18-3-16 points. Eight of last nine Buc games stayed under the total. Tampa Bay lost field position in last three games by 7-22-11 yards; they scored 12.6 ppg during current five-game losing streak.
Rams (6-9) @ Seahawks (11-4)– Seattle takes NFC West with win here; they lost first meeting 28-26 (-7) in St Louis in Week 7, when Rams used couple trick plays on special teams to hold on after they almost squandered 21-6 halftime lead. Rams lost last eight in Seattle, with six of last seven losses here by 10+ points; their last win here was a playoff game ten years ago. Seattle won its last five games overall (4-0-1 vs spread), allowing only three TDs on last 50 drives, holding all five foes under 5.0 ypa. Seahawks are 4-2-1 as home favorites, with last three home wins by 21-16-10 points. Four of last five Seattle games stayed under total. Rams are 6-4 as an underdog this year, 4-2 on road; they lost last two games when favored at home.
Cardinals (11-4) @ 49ers (7-8)– Arizona switched starting QBs twice during week; looks like Lindley gets second start here. Redbirds are in playoffs but hit road unless Rams pull unlikely upset in Seattle. Cardinals (+3) won first meeting 23-14 n Week 3, getting seven of 24 first downs via 49er penalties in just their second series win in last 11 tries. Cards lost last five visits to Bay Area, all by 12+ points but 49ers are is disarray. losing four in a row and with coaching change rumored to be imminent- they blew 28-7 halftime lead in home loss to Chargers last week, after scoring total of 23 points in previous three games. Cardinals haven’t scored a TD in last two games and only one in game before that came on a 42-yard drive. Seven of last ten Arizona games stayed under the total.
Raiders (3-12) @ Broncos (11-4)– Denver needs win to get bye next week, which is big for team with old, immobile QB and creaky OL. Broncos (-11) won first meeting 41-17 in Week 10, outgaining Oakland 471-232 in their sixth straight series win. Raiders lost last two visits here 37-6/37-21; they’re 3-2 in last five games overall after 0-10 start, but lost 52-0/31-13 in games in between the wins. Oakland is 19-7 in last 26 games as a divisional road dog, 1-1 this year; they’re 3-3-1 as road dogs this year, with four seven road losses by 7 or less points. Six of last eight Raider games went over total; four of last five Denver games stayed under. Denver is 3-4 as home favorite, getting backdoored in last two home games. Halftime scores of last three series games: 27-7/31-0/20-10, all Denver.
Bengals (10-4-1) @ Steelers (10-5)– Pitt won 12 of last 16 series games, winning 42-21 (+3.5) in first meeting three weeks ago, running ball for 193 yards; Cincy is 2-3 in its last five visits here, with all three losses by 10+ points. Both teams are in playoffs, winner gets division title, possible bye but at least home game next week. Bengals won seven of last nine games, Pitt won/covered last three; in last eight games, Steelers converted 54-102 on third down- they’re 2-3 as home favorite this year. Bengals are 4-1 as road dogs- they won last four road tilts overall. Six of seven Steeler home games went over total; five of last seven Cincy games stayed under. Pitt hasn’t turned ball over in its last three games; Bengals have six INTs in last two games, winning field position by 15-16 yards.
INSIDER ANGLES
NFL Trends & Angles – Week 17
December 27, 2014
We eked out a small profit in Week 16 as we went 4-3 on a game-by-game basis. We presented six angles as usual with three producing winning records, two of them losing and the other one splitting. Unfortunately this NFL season has flown by as we have now already reached the final week of the regular season.
Week 16 was a big one for the underdogs as they went 11-5 ATS, leaving them at 122-112-6 ATS overall for the season, So the oddsmakers have done an excellent job as usual as that 52.1 percent win rate is not good enough to produce a profit at -110 odds. The same is true for totals as with the ‘under’ going 9-7 last week, it is now 125-114 for the season for just a 52.3 percent win rate.
And now we move on to the season ending Week 17, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.
The records for all of our angles only go back to 2005 as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.
Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.
We are coming right back with the same six angles we used last week for this Week 17 as all of them have qualifying plays once again. So without further ado, here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 17, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first 16 weeks of this year.
Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (165-104-5, 61.3% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss.
***Qualifiers: Buffalo +5, Cleveland +9 and Philadelphia +3.
Play against any home favorite of -3 or more that was an underdog in each of its last three games (65-43, 60.2% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do, be it professional or college. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are often not very good teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have tended to wilt under the pressure of now being expected to win.
***Qualifier: Carolina +4 vs. Atlanta.
Play on any team that lost its last game straight up by more than 28 points (91-60-5, 60.3% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value.
***Qualifiers: Arizona +6 and Indianapolis -7.
Play on any team that failed to cover its last game by more than 25 points (95-62-4, 60.5% ATS): The reasoning behind this angle is exactly the same as the previous angle, i.e., it combines the concepts of teams wanting to bounce back from a bad effort and bettors not wanting to bet on teams that just played so poorly. The difference is that this angle measures the previous margin ATS instead of straight up.
***Qualifier: Indianapolis -7.
Play the ‘over’ if a Good Team has won three straight games and is now facing a Bad Team (80-54-6, 59.7%): This angle is actually not contrarian but seems to be underutilized based on the record. Good Teams that are hot tend to remain potent while Bad Teams are less likely to slow them down, usually leading to high scoring affairs.
***Qualifying ‘overs': Dallas vs. Washington and St. Louis vs. Seattle.
Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (69-48, 59.0% ATS): Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions.
***Qualifier: Oakland +14½ over Denver.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NFL | ST LOUIS at SEATTLE
Play Against – Favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) after 3 or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
NFL | JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON
Play On – Any team vs the money line (HOUSTON) average passing team (185-230 PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game
37-19 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.1% | 0.0 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 0.0 units )
NFL | SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY
Play On – Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in December games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
NFL’s biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 17:
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)
Panthers’ red-zone struggles vs. Falcons’ red-zone success
Carolina can’t afford to leave points on the table when it visits the Falcons in Week 17. The winner of this game gets the NFC South crown (which I’d have to believe looks like one of those paper crowns from Burger King, with the way this division has stunk) and a ticket to the postseason.
The Panthers have problems inside the 20-yard line, finding paydirt on only 45.45 percent of its red-zone trips and is 27th in the NFL in red-zone efficiency. Carolina came away empty handed in its only venture inside the 20-yard line in its last meeting with Atlanta – a 19-17 home loss as 2.5-point underdog in Week 11.
The Falcons were just 1 for 3 in the red zone during that win but have been one of the best scoring teams when sniffing the end zone, scoring touchdowns on 64.29 percent of its red-zone sets. Atlanta has upped that red-zone TD production to 72.73 percent in its last three games and has picked up points in eight of its last 11 red-zone trips.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14, 47.5)
Raiders’ fourth-down dominance vs. Broncos’ fourth-down defense
The Raiders have nothing to lose heading into Week 17, which makes them a very dangerous team. Interim head coach Tony Sparano is trying to beef up his resume before hitting the job hunt and a victory over the Broncos would look very impressive to possible landing spots – if he doesn’t stay in Oakland.
Sparano won’t hesitate to roll the dice, especially on fourth down, where the Silver and Black have actually been good this season. The Raiders have converted on 64.29 percent of their fourth downs this season – third best in the league – and will likely throw caution to the wind if they get behind against the Broncos.
Denver hasn’t been shutting the door on opponents when they roll the dice on fourth down, allowing foes to convert on 62.5 percent of those gambles. The Broncos have gotten softer in recent games, allowing their last three opponents move the chains on three of their four fourth-down attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3, 53)
Eagles’ big-play problems vs. Giants’ WR Odell Beckham
The Eagles’ issues at corner burned them bad in the home stretch of the season. Philadelphia watched corner Bradley Fletcher get torched on deep tosses by Dallas WR Dez Bryant and Washington WR DeSean Jackson the past two weeks. Defensive coordinator has benched Fletcher and instead throws LB-turned-CB Nolan Carroll out there in Week 17.
The Eagles have allowed 36 passes of 25 yards or more this season – tied with the Colts and Giants for most in the NFL. Philadelphia comes into the final game of the season with its head in its hands, and facing one of the best big-play receivers in the NFL. New York WR Odell Beckham has caught 10 passes of 25 yards or more heading into Week 17.
The Giants’ one-man highlight reel has plenty to prove Sunday. The talented rookie WR was snubbed by the Pro Bowl voters despite catching 11 touchdowns and posting 1,120 yards receiving. Oh, and he missed the first four games of the season with a hamstring injury. Had Beckham been healthy, we’re looking at an additional 407 yards and four more scores, which would make him third in yards and first in touchdowns. He’ll make up more ground versus the Eagles Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 47.5)
Bengals’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell
If you’re currently wearing a makeshift championship belt or drinking from a tiny trophy, chances are you won your respective fantasy football league. And, chances are, Pittsburgh’s dynamic RB Le’Veon Bll got you there.
Bell is a threat to run or catch the ball on any down and heads into Week 17 with 1,341 gains on the ground and another 774 yards in receiving. He had just one catch against the Chiefs last weekend but had five for 72 yards versus the Falcons the week before. And, in his last game against the Bengals – a 42-21 win in Week 14 – Bell rumbled for 185 yards rushing and two scores while tacking on an addition 50 yards and a score through the air.
Cincinnati has had trouble with versatile running backs this season. The Bengals have allowed RBs to reel in 716 total yards receiving on 85 catches, and gave up notable gains to receiving running backs in games against Denver, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Indianapolis, which had 77 passing yards and a touchdown go through its RBs.
Where the action is: Sunday’s biggest NFL Week 17 line moves
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL
We’ve reached the final week of the NFL regular season, but a few things need to be sorted out before we gear up for some playoff football.
We talk with Scott Kaminsky, senior lines manager for TheGreek, about the action on some of Sunday’s games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – Open: -5, Move: -4.5, Move: -5
Before last week against Oakland, the Buffalo Bills had to win their remaining two games and get some help to have any hope at attaining one of AFC Wild Card spots. After a 26-24 loss in the Black Hole, the Bills head into the matchup just playing out the schedule while the perennially competitive Pats will view this one as a warm up game before the real season starts.
“This is a very hairy game for us,” said Kaminsky. “New England doesn’t need to win, so the issue we’re facing is if Bill Belichick will rest his starters. We opened the Pats at -5 which is where it currently sits, but if news breaks that Brady and Gronkowski will be on the sideline I expect that number to go down to -3 or -3.5.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -3.5, Move: -4, Move: -3.5
Both of these AFC North rivals have already secured playoff spots, but the all-important home field advantage is on the line as the winner of this matchup will be crowned division champions. The hated rivals met just three weeks ago in Cincy where the black and gold hammered Andy Dalton and company 42-21 while easily covering as 3-point dogs.
“It’s quite possible the Bengals could find themselves in a letdown spot in the wake of their enormous victory over Denver last Monday,” Kaminsky. “We have Pittsburgh at -3.5, but the public will be on Big Ben’s squad in this one, so I think there’s a shot we close this game at -4.”
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -8.5, Move: -13.5
Have the Cleveland Browns asked you to play quarterback yet? Check your cell phone, you may have a missed call from their GM Ray Farmer. When “Johnny Football” was ruled out for the season following a hamstring injury he suffered against Carolina in Week 16, the man who lost his job to Manziel – Brian Hoyer – has also been deemed ineligible to play, meaning undrafted rookie signal caller Connor Shaw will make his first NFL start versus Baltimore Sunday.
“We opened the Browns as +8.5 dogs but when it was announced Hoyer wasn’t going to play, we re-opened them at +13,” states Kaminsky. “Cleveland is going to have a tough time putting points on the board. Baltimore needs to win to reach the playoffs, but we’ve seen so many clubs over the years in their spot that don’t come through in the last week with so much on the line. On the other side of the coin, that’s a huge pointspread. It’s tough to lay that many points in the NFL.”
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -6, Move: -6.5
In what’s been the worst kept secret in the league this year, Sunday will mark the end of the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco. Deep postseason runs have become the norm for the Niners over the last few seasons, but they’ll be watching from the couch come January this time around following a disappointing campaign which has been dominated by rumors surrounding the head coach’s looming departure.
“Our book opened San Fran at -6, but now have them as 6.5-point chalk,” Kaminsky said. “This is another tricky game for us. The Cardinals are officially in the playoffs, but they need to win this game and have the Seahawks lose to the Rams in order to clinch the NFC West. Since both the Cards and Seahawks play at the same time, that’s working in our favor. However, if Seattle is blowing out St. Louis in the first half, you have to wonder if Bruce Arians will rest his main guys, which could have a huge impact on the second half line. Considering how ravaged Arizona has been by injuries this season that may not be a bad idea, but it’s all up in the air as of now.”
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -7, Move: -6
After a short lived benching it’s once again Jay Cutler time in the Windy City, but you won’t be seeing much excitement from Bears fans. Chicago’s uninspiring season took another turn once head coach Marc Trestman benched the Vanderbilt product in the wake of the Bears’ Week 15 loss to the Saints. When replacement starter Jimmy Clausen suffered a concussion last week, Cutler will lead the Monsters of the Midway onto the field before they enter an offseason with more questions than answers surrounding the team.
“We opened Minnesota at -7 with the assumption that Clausen would start,” said Kaminsnky. “When it was announced Cutler would be under center, that line dropped to -6. The Bears are a team in disarray, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Vikes cover this number with ease.”
Will NFL Unders continue to cash in Week 17, playoffs?
By JASON LOGAN
If defense wins championships, then NFL stop units are tightening the bolts with the postseason rapidly approaching.
There’s been a shift towards lower-scoring games since Week 11 of the NFL season and that has been a windfall for Under bettors. Over the last six weeks of football action, NFL games are 35-57-1 Over/Under – a 62 percent lean toward the Under.
In fact, Week 13’s 9-7 O/U record was the only week to pay out more on the Over since Week 11, when NFL games went 4-10 Over/Under. In the three weeks since Week 13, NFL games are going Under 68 percent of the time with a 15-32-1 Over/Under count.
The most profitable slate for Under backers was Week 15, which had 13 of its 16 contests finish below the posted total. An average of 36.44 points was scored in those games against an average total of 46.25 – nearly a 10-point differential. Week 15’s scoring average of 36.44 was the lowest average score for any week between Week 11 and Week 16 in six seasons.
One would think a decline in scoring as the season gets closer to the playoffs would be the norm. However, looking back at Week 11 to Week 16 scoring averages since 2009, there is no steady drop off in offensive production.
In each year but 2014 (save Week 17) and 2009, the average score has finished above the average total from Weeks 11 to 16. From 2010 to 2013, games played between Week 11 and Week 16 produced a 189-182-5 Over/Under record – 51 percent for the Over.
In that 2009 season, games played between Week 11 and 16 finished with a 35-58-4 Over/Under count – a 62 percent lean to the Under. Those games averaged 42.38 points, up against a betting total of 42.82. Week 17 of that season punched out a 9-7 Over/Under record and proceeding playoff games finished 7-4 Over/Under
Is that what NFL bettors can expect in Week 17 of this year, and the upcoming playoffs?
Currently, the average total for Week 17’s games is just over 44 points (only 12 of the 16 scheduled games currently have posted totals). That average Over/Under of 44.08 points is the lowest total in the last six weeks.
On the season, NFL games have gone 114-125-1 Over/Under – a 52.3 percent edge for the Under.
NFL Prop Shop: Week 17’s best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY
Why limit yourself to sides and totals in Week 16 of the NFL season? Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives his favorite player prop picks for all of the action on the gridiron.
Most passing yards
Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) vs. Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)
I see considerable value backing Jay Cutler in this matchup. The Bears’ season went to waste long ago, and last week Chicago turned to Jimmy Clausen under center. Here’s thinking that may have lit a fire under Jay Cutler, and I’m confident he responds with a big game against a lagging Vikings defense on Sunday. I’ve been high on Teddy Bridgewater since the Vikings drafted him, but I don’t see this as a favorable spot. The Vikings offense isn’t scaring anyone these days, and while the Bears defense has struggled, I expect them to show up in this divisional showdown.
Take: Cutler
Mark Sanchez (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Eli Manning (New York Giants)
I have no trouble supporting Eli Manning in this matchup. The Giants offense as a whole has struggled for much of the season, but you would be hard pressed to find a tandem as on-point as Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. right now. Facing the Eagles, who are disappointed after seeing their season come to an end last Saturday in Washington, I’m confident that duo will shine. Mark Sanchez has shown some flashes of brilliance since taking over as the Eagles starting quarterback, but he’s been far from consistent. Hitting the road in a meaningless regular season finale wouldn’t appear to be a spot where Sanchez busts out.
Take: Manning
Most rushing yards
DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins)
There’s a good chance DeMarco Murray doesn’t see the field for four quarters on Sunday afternoon, so I’ll back Alfred Morris, who is looking to close out the season on a high note. It’s worth noting that Murray has seen his production tail off as the season has progressed. This isn’t a matchup where we can expect the Cowboys to hand the football off early and often. The Redskins have been a big disappointment this season, but Alfred Morris remains the focal point of the offense, and he’ll get ample opportunity to bust loose against a less-than-motivated Cowboys defense.
Take: Morris
Most pass receptions
Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) vs. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The Saints are at the tail-end of a disappointing season, but I don’t think we’ll see their offense lay down on Sunday afternoon in Tampa. Jimmy Graham is still one of the most explosive weapons in all of football, and he should find plenty of open field against a Bucs defense that has had a tough time slowing even the weakest of offenses this season. I have a lot of respect for Bucs rookie wideout Mike Evans, but I’m not quite as confident in Josh McCown. At some point, pride kicks in for the more talented team, and that’s the Saints in this matchup. Look for the New Orleans defense to step up with a strong performance against Tampa’s aerial attack on Sunday.
Take: Graham
SIXTH SENSE (NFL)
1* 302 Green Bay -7.5
1* 315 Carolina +3.5
1* 324 Washington +5.5 , This may go back to 6 so wait if you’d like not much difference from 5 to 5.5
1* 330 San Francisco -6.5 -115
Norm Hitzges NFL
DOUBLE PLAYS: Green Bay -7 1/2 Detroit
Seattle -12 1/2 St. Louis
SINGLE PLAYS:
NY Giants -3 Philly
Baltimore -10 Cleveland
Jacksonville +9 1/2 Houston
Indianapolis -7 Tennessee
Carolina +4 Atlanta
Minnesota -6 1/2 Chicago
Denver -14 Oakland
NORTHCOAST SPORTS
Early Bird Pro Play —- Green Bay Packers -7
PHILLYGODFATHER
Pittsburgh Steelers-3
Green Bay Packers-7
Tampa Bay Buccs+4
HILTON CONTEST / TOP CONTESTANTS / WK 17
================================
(60-34-1): Green Bay / Indy / Carolina / San Diego / Philly
(57-38): Jx’Ville / Indy / New England / Carolina / NY Giants
(56-39): Carolina / San Diego / Philly / Wash / San Fran
Mike O’Connor
I’m adding 2-stars on the 49ers -6.5 and 2-stars on the Redskins +5.5 to go along with the play that I sent on Wednesday on the Chiefs (see below). That’s it for this week unless there is a line move or I uncover some other significant information. I’ll send a final update early on Sunday AM.
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O’Connor
***KANSAS CITY (-2.5 -120) 29 San Diego 17
Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 42.5
The Chargers were lucky to win last week against a 49ers team that played inspired football early in building a 28-7 second quarter lead but then let the Chargers back in the game late in an eventual 38-35 overtime win for the Chargers. Although turnovers were even, the 49ers were -3 in fumbles (three fumbles with all three lost for the 49ers with San Diego fumbling once and recovering it themselves), indicating a bit of luck on the Chargers part. In fact, on the season overall San Diego has only fumbled 14 times (tied for third best) and lost 4 while their opponents have fumbled 21 times and lost 11. From a match-up perspective, the Chiefs good rushing attack (averaging 120 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.2 ypr) face a San Diego rush defense that has allowed 126 yards at 4.7 ypr to teams that gain 112 yards at 4.4 ypr and just allowed the 49ers to rush for 355 yards at 8.9 ypr last week. They won’t be able to stop the Chiefs running game in this one while they likely won’t have a ground game to speak of themselves (averaging 83 yards at 3.5 ypr to teams that allow 104 yards at 4.1 ypr). If an immobile Rivers is put in predicable passing situations he’ll be faced with a strong Chiefs pass rush (tied for 8th in sacks ) and a strong pass defense that is allowing just 200 passing yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that gain 235 yards at 6.3 ypr. Adding the fact that Rivers has been banged up and will be playing with an offensive line that may be on their fifth center and just lost starting right guard Johnnie Troutman has me leaning with the Chiefs. When considering the fact that Kansas City also qualifies in a good 154-96-9 situation that plays on certain teams with worse records late in the season and benefit from a negative 114-199-8 statistical match-up indicator that plays against the Chargers, I can’t pass up Kansas City in this spot. We know that San Diego is in the playoffs with a win but the Chiefs still have a shot (need a win and some help) and will no doubt be playing this game all out. I’ll take Kansas City -2.5 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -110 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -120.
12/26 UPDATE: With the surprisingly unfortunate news that Alex Smith is now out of this game with a lacerated spleen, I’m estimating an adjustment of 3.5 points. That being said, I don’t recommend the Chiefs at anything less than a PK for 2-stars for those that have not played this game already at the Wednesday release of -2.5 (-120). For those of you that have played already, I recommend staying with our position and I’ll be graded at that number. The backup is Chase Daniel and while he hasn’t had a lot of experience in his six seasons, he played well last season in his start in Week 17 against the Chargers (21-30 for 200 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions) in a 24-27 overtime loss. Kansas City has confidence in him and I expect that the rest of the team will rally for the Chiefs win.
**WASHINGTON (+5.5) 28 Dallas 25
Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 49.5
The Cowboys have won the NFC East but still have a shot at a first round bye although it’s extremely unlikely while the Redskins are trying to end the season on a winning note. The Redskins beat the Eagles 27-24 last week and would love nothing more than to end their season with consecutive divisional victories. They should have a good chance at doing just that as Dallas could be a bit flat after their 42-7 home win last week against the Colts and their 38-27 win at Philadelphia the week prior. Not to mention the likelihood of having a playoff game next week. Washington actually matches up fairly well with the Cowboys with an offense that rates as just above average facing a Dallas defense that is below average overall and can be exploited, particularly in the passing game (allowing 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps). Robert Griffin connected with DeSean Jackson on a couple of deep balls last week (4 for 126 yards) and I suspect we’ll see more of that in this game. In addition, the Redskins have been effective in limiting opponents ground games (allowing 104 yards at 4.0 ypr to teams that gain 114 yards at 4.3 ypr) and could slow down the Cowboys good rush offense. This is too many points to give a divisional rival on the road in what is likely a meaningless game for the favorite and my model only favors the Cowboys by 2.2 points. I’ll take the Redskins +5.5 for 2-stars down to +4.
**SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 27 Arizona 13
Sun Dec-28-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 330 Over/Under 36.5
The Cardinals are reeling with the loss of their top two quarterbacks and are now faced with the prospect of playing Ryan Lindley in this game and potentially through the playoffs. Lindley has not been good as since entering the league in 2012 he has 225 pass attempts without scoring a touchdown and has thrown nine interceptions. Last week against the Seahawks he was terrible, passing for 187 yards at 3.8 yps with one interception and taking four sacks. Part of the problem in this game for the Cardinals is that they don’t have much of a run game to lean on (averaging 85 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 105 yards at 4.2 ypr) while the 49ers are tough defending the run (allowing 4.2 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr on average). While the San Francisco defense isn’t at the same level as the Seahawks, it’s still very good in allowing 317 total yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that average 353 yards at 5.6 yppl and is tied for second in the league with 20 interceptions. I expect that a motivated 49ers team, playing in their final game at home with Jim Harbaugh as coach will play well and will be very difficult to beat. Offensively, Frank Gore and a good 49ers running game that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 109 yards at 4.3 ypr should be able to run the ball on a Cardinals rush defense that has played well at times but overall are just better than average (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr). The 49ers get a fumble luck adjustment in this game as they have had poor fortune in regards to fumbles while the Cardinals have been lucky (have only lost 5 of their 16 offensive fumbles while opponents have lost 7 of their 13). The 49ers qualify in good 681-503-40 and 32-5 situations and my model, adjusted for Lindley, favors San Francisco by 9.5 points. I like the spot for the 49ers as they try to send Harbaugh out with a win and with both good situations and line value I’ll take the 49ers -6.5 for 2-stars up to -7.
THE SHEEP
8x GB Packers -7-120
VEGAS RUNNER
$500.00 – Washington Redskins +6
NFLBetting Picks / Kevin
Kevin’s Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans – OVER 46.5 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
Kyle’s Pick(s)
4 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers – PACKERS -7 (-114)
(Note: I’m risking 4.00 units to win 3.51 units)
A frustrating series of events for me last week. As a 1-2 week could have easily went 3-0. In the Lions/Bears game there was not a single moment in the game to blame, but one after the other rather. All the Lions had to do was hold on to the ball and not turn it over one of those two trips in the red zone and a field goal would have gave us a cover. Or, Jeremy Ross botching a punt return with seconds left in the 1st half hurt as well. Punches to the gut are part of this business, though, just have to accept it an move on to the next game. This week I am heading right back to a Lions game. Week 17 is particularly tricky. I wanted to have one or two more plays, but many of the games this week are essentially pointless for many teams. Some teams already have solidified a spot in the playoffs and others are looking forward to vacation. So I took a game with major implications on the line. The winner here secures the NFC North, with the Lions having a chance at a first-round bye and home playoff game if they can pull the win off. I don’t see them doing so this week. the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay since 1992. For a team that visits Lambeau every year that is pretty bad. After Aaron Rodgers threw up a dud against the Lions in their first meeting this season I had this one circled on the calendar. The Lions won that one 19-7 in week 3 and it was the worst performance of the year for Rodgers. It was after that game when Rogers went on that torrid tear. The Packers are quite phenomenal at home this season, they are 7-0, including a 26-21 victory over the Patriots. 26 points is actually the lowest total they were held to all year. In Green Bay the Packers have averaged 41.1 points per game. The Pack got over 30 points in every game except that Patriots game. Heck, even in the pre-season they went over 30 points in both games. The Lions have a beast of a defensive line and allow nothing on the ground, but I don’t see the Packers fooling around with the ground game. I look for Rodgers to air it out frequently throughout this game, taking advantage of what I think, has been an over achieving Detroit secondary. After the game he had last time against the Lions, Rodgers should be hungry to bounce back. The Lions offense on the other hand have been under achievers. On the road they’ve looked horrible, averaging only 15 points per game. I can see the Packers hitting the mid 30’s. The Lions will be without center, Dominic Raiola, this week after stomping on the ankle of a Bear last week. That forces the team to go with a rookie at center, a rather important position that is often overlooked. Certainly not good for a team that hasn’t won in a place since 1992, going up against a team that hasn’t lost in that same place all season long. The Lions are happy with their already clinched playoff spot. I am a Lions fan, but I don’t like them in this spot. Only one play for me this week, but I’ll be playing it for 4 units on the Packers.
INSIDE THE PRESSBOX / PHIL STEELE
BEST BETS
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
Top Opinion – Pittsburgh Steelers
MADDUX SPORTS
10* KC Chiefs -2.5
WAYNE ROOT
Kansas City
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
*small plays
SB PROFESSOR NFL
1 PM
323. Dallas Cowboys -4*
4:25 PM
315. Carolina Panthers +3*
Rest of Games
313. New York Jets +6
325. New Orleans Saints -4
MTI
(Teasers 6pts)
4.5 green bay-cinci
4 – green bay-indy
3 -cinci-indy
10pts
4.5 san diego-seattle-minny
4 san diego-seattle-jets
4 san diego-minny-jets
4 seattle-minny-jets
Football Crusher
Buffalo Bills+5 over New England Patriots
(System Record: 46-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 46-43-3
Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -136 over San Jose Sharks – pending
Florida Panthers -105 over Toronto MapleLeafs
(System Record: 40-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 40-31-1
Basketball Crusher
Toronto Raptors +4.5 over LA Clippers – pending
LongBeach State +11 over Syracuse
(System Record: 25-0, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 25-293-1
Soccer Crusher
Aston Villa + Sunderland UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 680-24, won last 4 game)
Overall Record: 680-568-105
Here are the rest of his football, hockey and basketball plays for today…
Football
Washington Redskins +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys
Oakland Raiders +14 over Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions +7.5 over Green Bay Packers
Hockey
Florida Panthers + Toronto Maple Leafs – OVER 5.5
Basketball
Harvard +3 over Arizona State
UNC Greensboro +9 over East Carolina
Bowling Green +1 over South Florida
MARC LAWRENCE (Pref Picks)
10* NFL GOY – Green Bay Packers