by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, August 8, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
Has any potential free-agent pitcher cost himself more money in 2014 than Washington’s Doug Fister? First off, he missed a month or so with a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm. So that’s a warning sign. And when he has pitched, he hasn’t been very good with a 4-7 record, 4.60 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Those latter two are easily career-worsts. In 2014, he was 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA. And now Fister’s value figures to drop even more because he has been bumped to the bullpen. With Stephen Strasburg returning, the Nats opted to keep Joe Ross in the rotation over Fister, and with the way Ross is pitching that was the right move. Fister may want to take a one-year deal somewhere this offseason to prove himself worthy of one last big contract.
♦ Rockies at Nationals (-182, 8)
Washington needs to take this opportunity against the lousy Rockies to start playing better baseball as it has won just four of its past 10 games to fall behind the Mets. Strasburg (5-5, 5.16) takes the mound, and he has been perhaps the biggest pitching disappointment in the majors (his ERA and 1.49 WHIP are the worst of his career) this season. Strasburg hasn’t pitched since July 4 due to an oblique injury. In his latest minor-league rehabilitation assignment for Triple-A Syracuse on Monday, Strasburg struck out 11 in 5⅔ innings without allowing a walk. Colorado’s Jose Reyes is 5-for-14 career off him with two doubles. Carlos Gonzalez is 2-for-8 with five strikeouts. It’s lefty Yohan Flande (2-1, 3.54) for the Rockies. He pitched an inning of relief on Wednesday and got the win in the 11th. Ian Desmond is 3-for-4 with two doubles off him.
Key trends: The Rockies are 1-5 in Flande’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. Washington is 1-5 in Strasburg’s past six vs. teams with a losing record. The “over/under” has gone over in four of Strasburg’s past five vs. Colorado.
Early lean: Nationals and over.
♦ Blue Jays at Yankees (+120, 8.5)
This is your earliest game with a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch and will have live betting at sportsbooks with it televised by the MLB Network. And it’s the second Toronto start for David Price (10-4, 2.45). He was fantastic in his Blue Jays debut last weekend against the Twins, allowing just three hits and one run over eight innings, striking out 11. That latter number tied a franchise record in a Toronto debut. Price faced New York early in the season while with the Tigers, and it was easily his worst start of 2014 as the lefty was bombed for eight runs and 10 hits in just 2.1 innings. Jacoby Ellsbury is a career .353 hitter off him in 51 at-bats. A-Rod hits only .239 off him with 18 strikeouts in 46 at-bats. New York goes with Ivan Nova (4-3, 3.10), only his eighth start of the year off Tommy John surgery. He was strong last time out, allowing one run over six innings vs. the White Sox. Edwin Encarnacion is 8-for-22 with a homer and six RBIs off him.
Key trends: The Yankees are 6-0 in their past six at home against lefties. New York is 1-4 in its past five Nova starts vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-1-1 in Nova’s past nine at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Blue Jays and over.
♦ Dodgers at Pirates (-133, 7)
While Price makes his second start since being traded to the Jays, Mat Latos (4-7, 4.29) does the same here for the Dodgers. Latos did all that his new team could have asked as he went six innings against the Angels and allowed one run and four hits in his debut. Since returning from the DL on June 13, Latos has a 2.79 ERA and is re-establishing his worth as a free-agent-to-be. He hasn’t faced the Pirates this season. Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-22 with three homers off him. Pedro Alvarez is 8-for-27 with two dingers. Lefty Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92) goes for Pittsburgh. He went two innings Monday against the Cubs before the game was rained out. The Dodgers’ Howie Kendrick is 8-for-17 with a homer off him.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 4-1 in their past five against lefties. The Pirates are 5-0 in Liriano’s past five at home. The over is 6-0 in his past six at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Pirates and under.
♦ Red Sox at Tigers (-107, 8.5)
Even though Detroit was a seller at the trade deadline and then dumped GM Dave Dombrowski, the team is still only four games out of the second wild-card spot entering Friday and could get Miguel Cabrera back in a little over a week. So it’s not over yet. By the way, the Red Sox are expected to talk to Dombrowski to take a role in their front office. Alfredo Simon (10-6, 4.55) goes here for Detroit. He was bothered by a groin injury in his last start against Baltimore but did pitch 5.2 innings and the Tigers won his third straight outing. As of now he’s set to go here. Simon pitched in Boston on July 25 and allowed one run over six innings. David Ortiz is 2-for-8 with four walks off him. The Red Sox have lost six straight starts by lefty Wade Miley (8-9, 4.55). He hasn’t faced Detroit this season.
Key trends: Boston is 2-5 in Miley’s past seven on the road. The Tigers are 5-1 in Simon’s past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 7-2 in Miley’s past nine on five days of rest. The over is 8-2 in Simon’s past 10.
Early lean: Big on over. Take Tigers I suppose.
♦ Twins at Indians (-145, 7.5)
Minnesota was just destroyed four games in Toronto to start this week, and the Twins are dropping like a stone in the wild-card standings. That was always fool’s gold. They go with Ervin Santana (2-2, 3.89) here. He has made only six starts due to that 80-game drug suspension and hasn’t faced the Tribe yet. Minnesota has lost his past two, and he has allowed 11 runs over 11.2 innings. Carlos Santana is 5-for-19 with a homer off him. It’s Trevor Bauer (8-8, 3.98) for the Indians. They have lost his past four despite Bauer allowing only three earned over his past two. Cleveland has scored exactly one run in each of those four starts. He lost to the Twins on May 8, allowing five runs over five innings. Torii Hunter is 6-for-12 with two homers off Bauer.
Key trends: The Indians are 2-6 in Bauer’s past eight vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in Santana’s past four on the road. The under is 6-1 in Bauer’s past seven overall.
Early lean: Indians and under.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Giants @ Cubs
Cain is 1-1, 5.32 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1).
Hendricks is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts; six of his last eight went under.
Giants won four of last seven games with Chicago; seven of last 11 in series stayed under the total. SF lost four of last six games; over is 5-1-1 in last seven. Cubs won eight of their last nine games (under 5-3-1).
Dodgers @ Pirates
Latos is 1-2, 1.73 in his last four starts (under 3-1); he got 10 runs of support in the four games.
Liriano is 3-0, 2.37 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over.
Dodgers lost seven of last nine games with Pittsburgh; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. LA won six of its last eight games (over 5-2-1). Pirates won seven of last ten games; three of last five stayed under.
Rockies @ Nationals
Butler is 0-3, 8.41 in his last four starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.
Strasburg comes off DL here; he was 2-0, 1.15 in his last three starts before he pulled an oblique muscle- three of his last four starts stayed under.
Colorado lost five of its last seven games with Washington; Rockies lost six of last nine games; five of their last six went over. Nationals lost six of last seven games, with last five going over the total.
Marlins @ Braves
Koehler is 1-4, 6.14 in his last five starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Foltynewicz is 0-1, 6.00 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.
Braves won four of last six games (over 6-0-2 in last eight). Marlins lost 12 of last 14 games (over 6-1 in last seven). Atlanta won nine of last eleven games with Miami; six of last seven went over the total.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Garcia is 2-1, 1.41 in his last five starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Peralta is 1-2, 6.38 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Cardinals won seven of last nine games with Milwaukee (under 6-3); they won four of last five games overall (under 5-0). Brewers won three of last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five.
Reds @ Diamondbacks
Sampson allowed three hits, three runs in five IP (79 PT) in his first MLB start.
Ray is 0-2, 5.94 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Cincinnati won six of last ten games with Arizona (under 7-2 in last nine); Reds lost four of last five games; under is 9-1-1 in their last 11. Arizona won eight of last twelve games; eight of its last ten went over.
Phillies @ Padres
Morgan is 1-1, 5.28 in his last four starts (under 3-0 in road starts).
Ross is 3-1, 3.30 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Phillies are 14-5 in their last 19 games– over is 4-1-2 in their last seven. San Diego lost last four games, allowing 26 runs; nine of their last ten went over. Philly lost three of last five games with the Padres (over 4-1 in last five)
American League
Red Sox @ Tigers
Miley is 0-2, 4.70 in his last five starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten.
Simon is 2-0, 3.86 in his last two starts; eight of his last ten went over.
Red Sox won four of last five games with Detroit; under is 5-3-2 in last ten series games. Boston lost three of last five games overall (under 3-1-1). Tigers won three of last five games (under 3-1-1).
Blue Jays @ Bronx
Price is 3-2, 2.45 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Nova is 3-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Blue Jays won six in row, nine of last ten games; they scored 20 runs in last three games, with four of their last six going under. Toronto won four of last fvie games with Bronx, which won four of its last seven (under 6-2 in last 8).
Twins @ Indians
Santana is 0-2, 8.49 in his last two starts; three of his last four went under.
Bauer is 0-3, 4.91 in his last four starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Minnesota won four of last five games with Cleveland; eight of last ten in series went over total. Twins lost five of last six games, outscored 39-23; five of their last eight games stayed under. Indians lost five of their last six games; six of their last eight stayed under.
White Sox @ Royals
Samardzija is 2-2, 5.86 in his last four starts; his last three went over.
Guthrie is 0-2, 7.79 n his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Chicago lost four of last five games with Kansas City; under is 7-1-1 in last nine series games. White Sox lost six of last eight games overall; 10 of their last 11 went over the total. Royals lost six of last nine games; four of their last five stayed under.
Orioles @ Angels
Jimenez is 1-3, 10.61 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Richards is 3-1, 2.53 in his last four home starts; four of his last six starts overall went over.
Orioles lost four of last five games with the Angels; eight of last ten went under the total. Baltimore is 7-4 in its last 11 games; over is 5-2-1 in its last eight. Halos lost seven of last ten games (over 7-4 in last 11).
Astros @ A’s
McHugh is 4-0, 3.24 in his last four starts; six of his last seven went under.
Chavez is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three starts; nine of his last ten went over.
Houston won seven of last nine games with Oakland; five of last eight went over the total. Astros lost four of last five games overall; they’re 3-14 in last 17 road games. A’s lost ten of last 15 games (under 10-5).
Rangers @ Mariners
Perez is 1-5, 9.36 in his last seven starts; under is 3-1 in his last four on road.
Montgomery is 0-2, 6.84 in his last five starts; under is 5-2-2 in his last nine.
Seattle won its last six games with Texas; seven of last nine stayed under. Mariners won four of last five games; their last four went over. Rangers are 7-2 in last nine games; three of their last five stayed under.
Interleague
Mets @ Rays
Syndergaard is 4-1, 1.44 in his last seven starts (under 5-1-1).
Karns is 2-0, 1.65 in his last three starts.
Mets won six of last eight games with Tampa Bay; last five games in series went over total. New York won its last seven games, allowing 16 runs; four of last five went over. Tampa Bay won three of its last five; six of their last seven games went over the total.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
SF-Chi– Cain 3-3; Hendricks 11-10
LA-Pitt– Latos 7-10, 1-0; Liriano 10-10
Col-Wash– Butler 6-8; Strasburg 6-7
Mia-Atl– Koehler 10-10; Foltynewicz 5-6
StL-Mil– Garcia 4-5; Peralta 4-7
Cin-Az– Sampson 0-1; Ray 4-8
Phil-SD– Morgan 4-3; Ross 12-11
Bos-Det– Miley 10-12 (0-5 last 5); Simon 12-8
Tor-NY– Price 16-6, 1-0; Nova 4-3
Min-Clev– Santana 3-3; Bauer 9-12 (0-4 last 4)
Chi-KC– Samardzija 11-11; Guthrie 12-8
Balt-LAA– Jimenez 10-11; Richards 12-8
Tex-Sea– Perez 2-2; Montgomery 4-8 (0-5 last 5)
Hst-A’s– McHugh 15-7; Chavez 5-14 (3-6 last 9)
NY-TB– Syndergaard 8-7; Karns 10-11
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
SF-Chi– Cain 2-6; Hendricks 4-21
LA-Pitt– Latos 6-17; Liriano 2-21
Col-Wash– Butler 8-15; Strasburg 3-13
Mia-Atl– Koehler 4-20; Foltynewicz 5-11
StL-Mil– Garcia 2-9; Peralta 3-11
Cin-Az– Sampson 0-1; Ray 2-12
Phil-SD– Morgan 1-7; Ross 6-23
Bos-Det– Miley 7-22 (3 of last 3); Simon 3-20
Tor-NY– Price 4-22; Nova 1-7
Min-Clev– Santana 0-6; Bauer 3-21
Chi-KC– Samardzija 11-22; Guthrie 4-20
Balt-LAA– Jimenez 6-21; Richards 3-20
Tex-Sea– Perez 0-4; Montgomery 2-12
Hst-A’s– McHugh 7-22; Chavez 5-19
NY-TB– Syndergaard 4-15; Karns 8-21
Umpires
LA-Pitt– Last five Morales games went over total.
SF-Chi– Three of last four Culbreth games went over.
Col-Wsh– Over is 4-1-1 in last six O’Nora games.
StL-Mil– Three of last four Hirschbeck games went over.
Mia-Atl– Under is 9-4-1 in last 14 Wendelstedt games.
Cin-Az– Last three Vanover games went over the total.
Phil-SD– Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Nauert games.
Tor-NY– Nine of last twelve Gibson games stayed under.
Hst-A’s– Favorites are 14-5 in last nineteen Nelson games.
Tex-Sea– Underdogs won nine of last ten Iassogna games.
Bos-Det– Six of last seven TBarrett games stayed under.
Chi-KC– Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Diaz games.
Min-Clev– Underdogs are 11-6 in last 17 Everitt games.
Balt-LAA– Underdogs are 7-5 in last twelve Davis games.
NY-TB– Favorites won last four TWelke games.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | HOUSTON at OAKLAND
Play Against – Home teams (OAKLAND) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts
117-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.6% | 45.7 units )
8-8 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.6 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | TEXAS at SEATTLE
TEXAS is 31-19 (+21.9 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.9)
Coach Fletcher’s
MLB Saturday Scouting Edge
10:05 am Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Price Is Favored Over NYY in Yankee Stadium
David Price was just what the Blue Jays were hoping for in his first start for Toronto. The lefty dominated, delivering 11 strike outs over an 8 inning stint where he retired the last 15 men he faced. The Jays are hoping for something similar against the Yankees today. Price is 10-4 on the year with a 2.57 era. He’s best on the road with a 6-2 record and a 2.34 era. In his last 3 starts Price is 1-1 with a 3.27 era boosted up after he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings to Tampa Bay before the trade. Price is 10-7 career against the Bombers, but he hasn’t pitched effectively in many cases. In his last 2 starts against the Yankees he’s been pulverized for 16 runs in 4 1/3 innings in which New York had 22 hits. One start was in this year in April and the other in 2014 in late August. He holds a 4.50 lifetime era against the Yankees. Price faces Ivan Nova who is making his 8th start of the season after coming off the DL. He has a 3.10 era this season and is 4-1 lifetime vs New York with a 4.62 era. Nova has not pitched against New York since 2013. One thing working against Price besides his last 2 disastrous starts is the facat that the NYY are 21-14 this year against LHP and average 5.4 runs per game against lefties.
1:05 pm San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
Cubs Continue Hot in August
It actually started at the end of July. Just when everyone was about to write off the Cubs, they have made a comeback. After the Phillies swept the Cubbies at home, most people figured they were done. Now they have put themselves into a definite shot at the NL Wild Card. Since July 27, Chicago has won 9 of 11 games. And after the SF series is over, the Cubs will get Milwaukee for a 3 game series at home. They just swept the Brewers 4 straight in Milwaukee. They have definitely used good pitching, allowing 4 or more runs only just 3 times in their last 11 games. The offense has also picked up. In their last 8 games the Cubs have averaged 4.6 runs and given up only 2.7. Today Kyle Hendricks takes on Matt Cain in a game where the Cubs are favored. Cain is 2-2 with a 4.91 era in 6 starts since coming off the DL. He’s got a 6.00 era on the road and 4.76 in his last 3 starts, 2 on the road. Hendricks is 5-5 with a 3.67 era. He’s 1-2 at home with a 3.23 era in 9 games.
4:05 pm Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals
He’s Back! Strasburg Sees First Action Since July 4
On July 4, Steven Strasburg left the game with a strained left oblique. He comes back today a little more than a month later. His returns coincides with the Nats mired in a slump. They surrendered 1st place to the NY Mets. Strasburg might be just what the Nats need, too. In his final performance in rehab, he was over powering. IN 5 2/3 innings Strasburg fanned 11 players for Triple-A Syracuse. Strasburg gave up 2 runs on 5 hits with zero walks. He threw 85 pitches. Strasburg battled a variety of physical issues and mechanical issues plagued him as well. His command wasn’t right. He was hitting all white instead of the black. Strasburg enters the game at 5-5 with a 5.16 era. He’s 2-3 versus the Rockies with a 3.09 era in 2013-14.
5:40 pm Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Suddenly Offensive Phillies Take on Ross in San Diego
What’s happened to those Phillies? Well, for one thing, they are finally scoring some runs. They have won 7 of their last 11 games and have scored 66 runs in those 11 games. When you average 6 runs a game you are going to win some. However, after winning 6 of 7, the Phils have now dropped 3 of their last 5. The Padres find themselves struggling as well. After winning 4 straight, the Friars have lost 5 of their last 6. Over the season, the Phillies only average 3.7 per game. But the offense has picked up as they continue to hit. Not only have they averaged 6 runs per game over the last 11, they have averaged 6 runs plus in their last 7 games. They may have a little trouble equaling that today against Tyson Ross who is 8-8 with a 3.43 era. Ross has 2 starts against the Phils. In 2014 he held them scoreless for 7 innings. But in September of 2013, the Phillies got to him for 6 runs in just 2/3 of an inning.
Free Play – Orioles/Angels – Over 7 -125
Syndergaard still yet to pick up a win on the road
Justin Hartling
Noah Syndergaard’s numbers may look good at a quick glace, but the rookie right-hander has struggled on the road. In seven road starts this season, Syndergaard is 0-4 with a 4.34 ERA whilw allowing opponents to bat .268.
Syndergaard has allowed eight more earned runs on the road (18) compared to at Citi Field (10) despite pitching fewer games on foreign mounds.
The New York Mets are 1-6 in Syndergaarrd’s road starts this season.
The Mets are currently -113 when visit the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday.
Mariners winless in Montgomery’s past five starts
Justin Hartling
Mike Montgomery’s recent struggles on the mound have translated to losses for the Seattle Mariners, with the M’s dropping his past five starts.
Montgomery has given up 17 earned runs in his past five starts, including an abysmal six earned runs in 2.2 innings on July 22.
It is not all the lefties fault as the Mariners have given Montgomery three runs of support a game.
The Mariners are currently -130 when they host the Texas Rangers Saturday.
Six consecutive wins for Pirates when Liriano starts
Justin Hartling
The Pittsburgh Pirates have won their past six games when Francisco Liriano takes to the mound, with the June 20 being the last time they lost in the situation.
Through those six games, Liriano has pitched 38.0 innings while only given up nine earned runs versus 35 registered strikeouts.
The Bucs have also been giving Liriano some solid run support, as they have averaged 6.2 runs during Liriano’s past six starts.
The Pirates will host the LA Dodgers Saturday.
Price set to make second start for red-hot Blue Jays
Stephen Campbell
The Toronto Blue Jays remained red-hot Friday thanks to an extra innings 2-1 victory over the New York Yankees.
Toronto has won nine of its last 10 games heading into Saturday’s afternoon clash in the Bronx. After coming north via trade from the Colorado Rockies, the Bluebirds are a perfect 9-0 with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in the starting lineup.
Fellow newcomer David Price is set to make his second start of the season for Canada’s sole MLB team. Ivan Nova is slated to counter for the Yanks.
Toronto is currently in the -144 ballpark at sportsbooks.
McHugh becoming a favorite for ‘Under’ bettors
Stephen Campbell
Colin McHugh has become a popular pitcher for bettors banking on low totals recently.
The Under is 6-1 in McHugh’s last seven outings. The right-hander is scheduled to start Saturday opposite Jesse Chavez and the Oakland A’s.
Pinnacle Sports has tabbed the tilt with a total of 7.5.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Cleveland does not rock for the Indians
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend major-league schedule:
Home Sick
The Cleveland Indians have really struggled at home this season, in fact they have a major league low 20 home wins. They’ve dropped six of their last seven home games heading into a home series versus Minnesota this weekend. The Twins though have lost eight of their last nine on the road.
Hot Diggity Dog
The Phillies are coming off back to back home losses to the Dodgers, but they’ve still won 13 of their last 18. They were an underdog in most of those games, and they’ll likely be a dog in all three games at San Diego this weekend. The Padres are coming off three straight losses at Milwaukee.
AL Wild Card
The Texas Rangers have won seven of their last eight, putting them right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. They trail the Angels by just three games, and they are 2.5 games back of the Blue Jays who currently hold the final Wild Card spot. Texas will be in Seattle this weekend, and the Mariners have won eight of the last 10 games in this series.
Weather Notes
High winds and potential thundershowers are in store for Kauffman Stadium Saturday. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain with winds gusting from home plate to left field between eight and 12 miles per hour.
Pitching Notes
*Clayton Kershaw will look to extend a streak of 37 consecutive scoreless innings in Pittsburgh on Friday night. It’s not going to be an easy task, as the Pirates a notoriously tough at PNC Park. The Dodgers road record is below .500, and Pittsburgh has won 42 of it’s last 60 home games versus teams with a losing road record.
*The Kansas City Royals are known to have the best bullpen in the major leagues, but after a handful of sub-par performances over the last week, they no longer hold the distinction of the team with the lowest ERA by reliever. That honor goes to the St. Louis Cardinals, who’s relievers boast an ERA of 2.26.
Hitting Notes
*Crush Davis – The Orioles slugger is hitting .306 with nine home runs and 27 RBIs since the All Star break, and he was 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs in Thursday’s win at Oakland. The Orioles will be in Anaheim this weekend, and Davis has really struggled, hitting just .167 at Angels Stadium since 2012.
*Josh Donaldson is having an MVP caliber season for the Blue Jays, and he’s really turned things on recently. He’s hitting .306 with eight home runs and 21 RBIs since the All Star break.
Totals Streak
Over the last few years, we’ve come to think of San Diego’s PETCO Park as one of the most pitcher friendly in the majors. That’s quickly becoming a myth here in 2015. The bookmakers still set extremely low totals for most of the Padres home games, and the over is 13-4 in Padres last 17 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. They host the Phillies this weekend, and eight of the last nine meetings in this series have gone over the total.
Injury Notes
*The Yankees have put Michael Pineda on the 15 day DL with a right forearm strain. That’s the last thing they need right now with the Blue Jays hot on their heels.
*Mike Leake was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday versus the Cubs, and he’s officially listed as day to day with a sore hamstring.
Game of the day: Roughriders at Argonauts
♠ Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts (-9.5, 48.5)
The Toronto Argonauts look to pull ahead in the race for the top spot in the East Division when they host the winless Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday. The Argonauts missed a chance to take sole possession of first place when they dropped a 34-18 decision to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and find themselves tied with two division rivals.
Toronto plays at the Rogers Centre for the first time after the Pan Am Games forced the team on the road for five weeks and hopes to beat the Roughriders once more following a thrilling 42-40 double-overtime victory in Week 2. Saskatchewan remains the only winless team in the CFL following a 30-5 setback to the Edmonton Eskimos in Week 6. The Roughriders were forced to use their third different starting quarterback of the season after Kevin Glenn was ruled out with a shoulder injury and rookie Brett Smith was left to run for his life as he was sacked five times. Saskatchewan coach Corey Chamblin was given a vote of confidence by general manager Brendan Taman earlier in the week and hopes to turn things around in order to avoid the team’s first 0-7 start since 1979.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN
LINE HISTORY: The spread and total have both remained at TOR -9.5, 48.5 since open.
INJURY REPORT: Roughriders – LB Shea Emry (Ques-Neck) Argonauts – RB Anthony Coombs (Ques-Undisclosed), SB Chad Owens (Ques-Ankle), LB Cory Greenwood (Out-Concussion)
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Smith struggled in his debut as a starter as he finished with zero touchdown passes and two interceptions before being relieved in favour of Tino Sunseri, who fared no better by turning the ball over twice. Saskatchewan signed former Alabama quarterback Blake Sims, who led the Crimson Tide to the SEC title last year, to the practice roster Tuesday while wide receiver James Richardson was apparently let go. “He’s no longer with the team at this point right now,” Chamblin told reporters. “I can’t tell you exactly what his status is.”
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Toronto’s rookie receivers continue to shine as Vidal Hazelton caught 10 passes for a career-high 134 yards and a touchdown while Kevin Elliott had five receptions for 61 yards against the Tiger-Cats. “I just tried to go out there and compete,” Hazelton told reporters. “When my number is called in the huddle it’s just my mindset to go out there and come down with the ball.” Wide receiver Chad Owens suffered an ankle injury versus Hamilton and is questionable for Saturday’s contest as is halfback Anthony Coombs, who is suffering from concussion-like symptoms.
TRENDS:
*Roughriders are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
*Argonauts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
*Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in Argonauts last 4 home games.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent are backing the Argos and 56 percent are on the over.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | SEATTLE at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against – Road teams (SEATTLE) after 2 or more consecutive unders, poor team – outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game
133-78 since 1997. ( 63.0% | 47.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
WNBA | SEATTLE at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against – Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (SEATTLE) good free throw shooting team – making >=76% of their free throws, in August or September games
34-13 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | SEATTLE at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after a game where they covered the spread
454-295 since 1997. ( 60.6% | 129.5 units )
14-15 this year. ( 48.3% | -2.5 units )
Premier League betting preview: Chelsea look poised for silverware yet again
By SOCCER AUTHORITY
Covers’ resident footy expert Soccer Authority takes a look at the Big 4 of the English Premier League, focusing on strengths, weaknesses, transfers in and out and where smart money should be when betting Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City during the new Premier League campaign.
♠ Arsenal ♠
Transfers In: Petr Cech (GK)
Transfers Out: N/A
Strengths
Home form. The Gunners scored the second most Goals at home this season, second only to Manchester City.
Alexis Sanchez. One of the players of the year last year with an impressive tally of Goals and Assists. If the Chilean can replicate the form he showed last season, Arsenal will be looking good for another title challenge.
Weaknesses
Arsenal still lack consistency. Last year, we saw a handful of poor performances against much weaker opposition at the start of the season which ruined their title chances.
Getting wins against the “Big 4″ hasn’t been easy for Arsenal in recent years, expect them to struggle against the likes of Chelsea, Man City, and Man Utd this season.
Smart Money
When betting on Arsenal games this season, keep an eye on the Over 2.5 Goals. If you had bet on Overs in every Premier League game last year, you would have had roughly a 8-10 percent return on investment.
♠ Chelsea ♠
Transfers In: Begovic (backup GK), Radamel Falcao (FW)
Transfers Out: Didier Drogba (FW), Felipe Luis (LB), Petr Cech (GK)
Strengths
Chelsea’s one weakness last season was their depth in the striker position and this was evident whenever Diego Costa got injured. The arrival of Radamel Falcao should resolve that problem. He has had many critics since arriving in the Premier League but we believe Jose Mourinho can get the best out of this player.
Jose Mourinho knows how to win titles and will do whatever it takes to retain the Premier League title. Expect Chelsea to have another rock-solid defense this season with emphasis being put on winning more that style.
Weaknesses
There are not many weaknesses in this side, but with John Terry turning 35 this year we may see his form start to slide.
Smart Money
Chelsea ‘To win to Nil’ at home was a market we profited from a lot last year. Eleven of their 15 home wins last season were ‘To Nil’ as they conceded just nine home goals in total and six of the wins were 2-0 scores
♠ Manchester City ♠
Transfers In: Raheem Sterling (FW), Fabian Delph (CM)
Transfers Out: James Milner
Strengths
Sergio Aguero was the League’s Top Goalscorer last season with an impressive 26 Goals in 33 appearances. If he can repeat this form next season there’s no reason Man City won’t be challenging for the title.
Like Arsenal, Man City have an impressive record at home. Since 2011-12 they’ve won 63 of 76 home games with just five defeats!
Weaknesses
City’s form on the road was ther downfall last season with points dropped against weak opposition including Burnley and Crystal Palace. Since 2011-12, Man City have only won 51 percent of away games, if they are to challenge for the title they must improve on the road.
Smart Money
Over 3.5 Total Goals – Since Pellegrini became coach, City’s games have averaged 3.42 goals per game with 47 percent having at least four goals.
♦ Manchester United ♠
Transfers In: Matteo Darmian (RB), Bastian Schweinsteiger (CM), Memphis Depay (FW), Morgan Schneiderlin (CM)
Transfers Out: Robin Van Persie, Radamel Falcao (Loan)
Strengths
Man Utd were fantastic against the Premier League elite clubs last season with an average of 1.8 points picked up per game against the “Top 6” The only team they failed to beat were Chelsea.
Squad Depth. As always Man Utd have a wealth of talent in most positions and with the addition of this summers tranfers we should see a notable improvement this season.
Weaknesses
Man Utd’s defense last season was the weakeset part of their game, and without the heroics of David De Gea we wouldn’t have seen them finish in the Top 4. If they’re to challenge for the title this is one area of their game that must improve.
Goals scored. United struggled in front of goal with both Van Persie and Falcao failing to impress. Last season Man Utd only scored 62 Goals, their worst total since 2005.
Smart Money
Under 2.5 Goals when playing away from home. United scored just 11 goals in their last 12 away games last season as 11 of their 19 away games had fewer than three goals’
INDIAN COWBOY – SOCCER Barclays Premier League
3-Unit Play. Take Everton (-137) over Watford (Saturday, August 8th @ 10am)
While the the start of the Premier League season usually focuses on the title race potential between the league’s biggest and best clubs, not many others have as much pressure as Everton to get off to a strong start this campaign. The Toffees finished a disappointing 11th last year and manager Roberto Martinez will assuredly be under pressure to avoid a similar beginning this time around. In their opener Everton get newly promoted Watford, so it won’t be easy facing a motivated side, surely. However on their home pitching ready for a fresh start, I expect Everton to come out strong and establish themselves as a potential Top 6 side that people know they can be on their ‘A’ game.
3-Unit Play. Take Chelsea/Swansea ‘Under’ 2.5 (+100) (Saturday, August 8th @ 12:30)
Chelsea open their EPL title defense at home against Welsh side Swansea, but I see it being a low scoring match for the defending champions of England. Swansea aren’t a push over by any means, but mainly I see both attacking sides failing to come up with the goods in their first match on the schedule. I think Chelsea didn’t do enough in the summer transfer window to make them as strong as they could be offensively, and I think the same holds true for the Swans just the same. I think this game is a 1-0 finish in favor of the home side at Stamford Bridge. Play the ‘under’ between the Blues and the Swans.
SOCCER BETTING MASTERS
England » Premier League » Manchester United – Tottenham
Manchester United to win
Odds: 1.67
England » Premier League » Chelsea – Swansea
Chelsea, -0.75
Odds: 1.51
SIMON – SOCCER (-2.05)
GERMANY – DFB POKAL (OVER 4.5 -140) EINTRACHT FRANKFURT @ BREMER SV (930AM)
ENGLAND – PREMIER LEAGUE (UNDER 2.5 -117) ASTON VILLA @ AFC BOURNEMOUTH (10AM)
ENGLAND – CHAMPIONSHIP (UNDER 2.5 -120) QUEENS PARK RANGERS @ CHARLTON ATHLETIC (10AM)
ENGLAND – LEAGUE 1 (UNDER 2.5 -127) BLACKPOOL FC @ COLCHESTER UTD (10AM)
ENGLAND – PREMIER LEAGUE (UNDER 2.5 -110) SWANSEA CITY @ CHELSEA FC (1230PM)
FRANCE – LIGUE 1 (OVER 2.5 -138) SM CAEN @ OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE (3PM)
JO JO – TENNIS (-2.40)
WTA – CITI OPEN @ WASHINGTON, D.C, U.S.A
S STOSUR -145 S STEPHENS (9PM)
EZWINNERS
MLB – (ACTION)
3* (915) Blue Jays -$130
3* (918) A’s +$110
3* (924) Royals -$110
(Lines from Americasbookie)
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Houston Astros -120 over Oakland A’s
(System Record: 57-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 57-57-1
Basketball Crusher
Seattle Storm + San Antonio Silver Stars – OVER 146.5
(System Record: 17-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 17-16-4
Soccer Crusher
Admira Wacker Modling + Salzburg – OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Austria
(System Record: 797-26, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 797-648-123
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
Boston Red Sox -101 over Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles + Los Angeles Angels – OVER 7
Chicago Cubs -137 over SF Giants
Basketball
none
SB Professor MMA Picks – UFC Fight Night
Beneil Dariush (+140) over Michael Johnson
Beneil Dariush/Michael Johnson – Under 2.5 Rounds +110
Chris Camozzi (-140) over Tom Watson
Oluwale Bamgbose (+340) over Urijah Hall
Geane Herrera (+350) over Ray Borg
John Anthony’s – Gold Coast Release
Pittsburgh Pirates – 130
over
Los Angeles at 4:05 EST
***Guaranteed to Win***
John Anthony’s – MLB Windy City Report
2015 American League East Super Lock of the Year!!!
New York Yankees + 125
MLB Best Bets
St Louis – 140
Arizona – 145
Seattle – 135
Tampa Bay + 105
BOB BALFE
Royals -115 over White Sox
Guthrie/Samardzija
(63-72 YTD)