by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, May 30, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I’m certainly right more than wrong when dealing with baseball predictions — perhaps not as much as I’d like to be — but I’ll eat crow when necessary. Have you seen the MLB standings entering the weekend? The Minnesota Twins are tied for first in the AL Central. I absolutely didn’t see that coming and, like most, expected slight improvement this season for the team but still a last-place finish in perhaps MLB’s deepest division. The Twins also have the best home record in the American League. Paul Molitor was a great player. Apparently he knows what he’s doing as a manager as well. I still don’t believe this lasts because of questionable pitching, but at least Twins fans have a reason to care until the Vikings get going.
♦ Blue Jays at Twins (-125, 8.5)
This is your earliest start at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Twins entered Friday on a five-game winning streak, and they have won four straight series: Rays, Pirates (on road), White Sox (on road) and Red Sox (sweep). I defy you to name five Twins — Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter and Phil Hughes don’t count. It’s Kyle Gibson (4-3, 2.72) for Minnesota on Saturday. He has been a big reason why the Twins are so good, allowing more than three runs just once all season. Last time out he beat the White Sox, allowing a run and four hits over eight innings and striking out a season-high eight. Toronto’s Josh Donaldson is 1-for-2 with a double off him. Edwin Encarnacion is 0-for-3. The Jays’ Aaron Sanchez (4-4, 3.98) has had back-to-back quality starts. He has control issues at times, leading the AL in walks. Sanchez has never faced the Twins.
Key trends: The Twins are 7-0 in Gibson’s past seven against teams with a losing record. They are 0-6 in Gibson’s past six vs. the AL East. The “over/under” has gone over in nine of Gibson’s past 11 at home.
Early lean: Twins and over.
♦ Indians at Mariners (-149, 8)
Been quite a week for Indians first baseman Carlos Santana. He was hit by a pitch on his hand/wrist on Tuesday but avoided any injury from it and kept playing. That’s fortunate. Now he’s on the paternity leave list, meaning he likely misses this series. He’s hitting .221 with six homers and 27 RBIs. Shaun Marcum (1-0, 6.28) goes here for the Tribe. He’s simply a rotation fill-in, and Marcum was shelled last time out, allowing seven runs over 2.2 innings vs. the Rangers. Seattle’s Robinson Cano is 6-for-17 with two extra-base hits off him. Nelson Cruz has a homer and five RBIs in seven at-bats. Lefty Roenis Elias (2-1, 2.56) has won two straight starts for the Mariners, allowing a run in each. Yan Gomes is 1-for-3 with a solo homer off him. Michael Brantley is 1-for-3 with an RBI.
Key trends: The Tribe are 4-0 in their past four on the road against lefties. Seattle is 0-5 in Elias’ past five at home. The under is 5-1 in Cleveland’s past six against lefties. The under is 5-0 in Elias’ past five at home.
Early lean: Mariners and under.
♦ Nationals at Reds (+119, 7.5)
Washington got bad news Thursday on outfielder Jayson Werth. A CT scan of his left wrist revealed two small fractures. That means he is out until August, and that’s only if everything goes well. Werth was hurt May 15 when he was hit on the left wrist by a pitch from Padres right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne in the top of the second inning. Lefty Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 4.53) goes for Washington. The Nats have won his past five. He held the Phillies to a run over 6.1 innings last time out. Joey Votto is 3-for-10 with a double, homer and three RBIs off him. Raisel Iglesias goes for Cincinnati. He took the place of a scratched Johnny Cueto on Sunday in Cleveland and lasted only three innings, allowing two runs and four hits. He has never faced Washington.
Key trends: The Nats are 5-2 in Gonzalez’s past seven following a quality start in his last appearance. The under has hit in seven of his past 10 against the NL Central.
Early lean: Nationals and over.
♦ White Sox at Astros
I’ll be curious to see how Astros ace Dallas Keuchel (6-1, 1.98) rebounds here. The lefty had allowed just one homer in 64.2 innings this season before giving up two in a loss at Baltimore on Monday. Keuchel allowed a season-high four runs as well. It was the first time he allowed multiple homers in a game since July 27, 2013, against the Blue Jays, a span of 48 appearances (all starts). He also had won eight straight decisions before Monday’s loss. Chicago’s Melky Cabrera is 3-for-7 with a double off him. Avisail Garcia, assuming he plays as he has battled a minor knee injury, is 1-for-2 with a three-run homer. Fellow southpaw Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.67) goes for the Pale Hose. He was bombed by the Twins last time out, allowing seven runs in six innings. Quintana had been very good the previous five outings. Jason Castro is 4-for-11 with two doubles and three homers against Quintana. Jose Altuve is 3-for-13.
Key trends: Chicago is 1-8 in Quintana’s past nine in Game 2 of a series. Houston is 7-1 in Keuchel’s past eight at home. The over has failed to hit in Quintana’s past 10 on Saturday. The under is 7-1 in Keuchel’s past eight at home vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Astros at +130 on runline, under.
♦ Braves at Giants (-169, 7)
Have you noticed the very nice bounce-back season that San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum is having? He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.37 since 2011 but is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA thus far. It seems like he has been around for 15 years, but the “Freak” is only 30. Lincecum didn’t pitch great in his last start, allowing four runs and five hits in five innings but still beat the Brewers. New Brave Juan Uribe has plenty of experience vs. Lincecum, going 10-for-36 with two homers, five RBIs and 10 strikeouts. Freddie Freeman hits only .211 off him. Andrelton Simmons .111. Williams Perez (0-0, 4.05) goes for the Braves. The rookie has been good in his two starts, allowing two combined runs in 11 innings with 14 strikeouts and two walks. He has never faced the Giants.
Key trends: The Giants are 5-0 in Lincecum’s past five at home vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his past four against the Braves. San Francisco is 7-2 in Lincecum’s past nine at home vs. Atlanta.
Early lean: Giants and under.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Rockies @ Phillies
de la Rosa is 1-1, 4.79 in his last three starts; his last four went over.
Harang is 2-2, 2.45 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Colorado is 4-5 in last nine games with Philly (over 6-3); Rockies won five of last six games- six of their last nine went over. Phillies lost seven of their last eight games overall.
Nationals @ Reds
Gonzalez is 1-0, 6.61 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Iglesias is 1-1, 3.38 in his first three MLB starts (under 2-1).
Nationals won 21 of last 28 games; seven of their last eight stayed under. Cincinnati lost 10 of last 12 games; Reds are 5-3 in last eight games with Washington; last five series games stayed under the total.
Marlins @ Mets
Koehler is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.
Niese is 0-3, 10.13 in his last three starts; all three went over.
Miami lost five of last eight games with New York; seven of last 11 in series went over total. Marlins are 9-15 on road; they lost eight of last 11 games overall, with five of last six staying under. Mets are 20-7 at home; they won three of last four games, allowing eleven runs- five of their last six games went over the total.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Hellickson is 1-1, 5.73 in his last six starts (over 3-2-1).
Lohse is 2-1, 4.07 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six at home.
Arizona lost three of last five games with Milwaukee; road team won six of last seven series games. D’backs lost four of last six games; three of last five stayed under total. Brewers lost their last six games, scoring 16 runs.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
Frias is 0-2, 7.88 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Cardinals are 9-0 when Wacha starts (3-0, 1.99 in last five).
Dodgers haven’t scored a run in last four road games; they lost six of last eight games with St Louis; seven of last nine in series stayed under total. Cardinals won last five games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight.
Pirates @ Padres
Morton allowed two runs in seven IP (87 PT) in his first ’15 start. .
Ross is 1-1, 3.75 in his last four starts; over is 3-1 in his last four at home.
Pirates won seven of last eight games, but lost four of last six vs San Diego; last three series games went over. Padres won four of last six games overall, with last three going over.
Braves @ Giants
Perez allowed two runs in 11 IP in his first two MLB starts (0-0).
Lincecum is 4-0, 2.05 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).
Braves lost seven of last eight games with San Francisco; nine of last 12 in series stayed under total. Atlanta lost four of last five games overall. Giants won ten of last 12 games; six of their last nine games went over.
American League
Rays @ Orioles
Ramirez is 2-1, 4.05 in his four starts (over 2-2).
Chen is 0-2, 4.26 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Rays lost last six games, scoring ten runs; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Orioles won three of last four games (under 6-2 in last eight). Tampa Bay lost six of last eight games with Baltimore; last five series games stayed under the total.
Red Sox @ Rangers
Miley is 3-0, 1.25 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under.
CCGonzalez is making MLB debut; he is 3-5, 4.15 in eight AAA starts in ’15.
Boston lost seven of last ten games; they lost three of last four games with Texas- under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Rangers won eight of last 10 games; under is 6-5 in their last eleven games.
Blue Jays @ Twins
Sanchez is 1-2, 4.58 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under.
Gibson is 3-1, 1.32 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Toronto won four of its last five games; they lost four of last six games with Minnesota; in last six games, under is 3-2-1. Twins won five of last six games, allowing 17 runs; four of their last five games went over.
White Sox @ Astros
Quintana is 1-4, 3.66 in his last five starts; five of his last six stayed under.
Keuchel is 3-1, 4.23 in his last four starts; four of his last five home starts stayed under.
White Sox lost seven of last 11 games; seven of those 11 stayed under the total- they’re 6-3 in last nine games against Houston- five of last seven series games went over. Astros won seven of last nine home games; three of their last five at home stayed under.
Bronx @ A’s
Eovaldi is 1-1, 4.82 in his last three starts; three of his last four road starts stayed under the total.
Hahn is 1-1, 1.80 in his last two starts; three of his last four home starts went over the total.
Bronx lost 16 of last 21 games with Oakland; nine of last twelve series games went under. Bombers lost nine of last ten road games; four of their last six overall stayed under. A’s won five of last seven games– under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Tigers @ Angels
Greene is 1-1, 2.52 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Weaver is 3-0, 1.50 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under.
Detroit lost nine of last 12 games against the Angels; six of last eight series games stayed under total. Tigers lost five of last seven games; five of their last seven stayed under. Angels won last two games, allowing two runs; four of their last six stayed under the total.
Indians @ Mariners
Marcum is 1-0, 8.68 in his first two starts this season.
Elias is 2-0, 1.35 in his last three starts; his last six stayed under.
Cleveland lost seven of last 11 games with Seattle; six of last eight series games stayed under. Indians won eight of last 11 games; three of their last five games went over total. Mariners won six of last eight games; five of their last eight games stayed under.
Interleague
Royals @ Cubs
Ventura is 1-1, 2.57 in his last two starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Wada is 0-0,, 2.70 in his two starts; his last three starts stayed under.
Royals lost four of last five games, outscored 33-13; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Cubs lost four of last five games, with four of last five staying under. Cubs are 6-5 in last 11 games vs KC, but teams haven’t played since ’11- those were only three series games since ’01.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Col-Phil– de la Rosa 2-4; Harang 5-5
Wsh-Cin– GGonzalez 7-2; Iglesias 1-2
Mia-NY– Koehler 4-5; Niese 3-6
Az-Mil– Hellickson 3-6; Lohse 4-6
LA-StL– Frias 2-3; Wacha 9-0
Pitt-SD– Morton 1-0; Ross 4-6
Atl-SF– Perez 1-1; Lincecum 5-4
TB-Balt– Ramirez 3-2; Chen 5-4
Bos-Tex– Miley 5-4; CCGonzalez 0-0
Tor-Min– Sanchez 4-5; Gibson 5-4
Chi-Hst– Quintana 3-6; Keuchel 8-2
NY-A’s– Eovaldi 5-4; Hahn 2-7
Det-LAA– Greene 6-4; Weaver 5-5
Clev-Sea– Marcum 1-1; Elias 2-4
KC-Chi– Ventura 4-5; Wada 1-1
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Col-Phil– de la Rosa 3-6; Harang 2-10
Wsh-Cin– GGonzalez 1-9; Iglesias 0-3
Mia-NY– Koehler 0-9; Niese 4-9
Az-Mil– Hellickson 4-5; Lohse 4-10
LA-StL– Frias 2-5; Wacha 3-9
Pitt-SD– Morton 1-1; Ross 3-10
Atl-SF– Perez 2-2; Lincecum 2-9
TB-Balt– Ramirez 3-5; Chen 2-9
Bos-Tex– Miley 2-9; CCGonzalez 0-0
Tor-Min– Sanchez 3-6; Gibson 1-9
Chi-Hst– Quintana 5-9; Keuchel 2-10
NY-A’s– Eovaldi 5-9; Hahn 3-9
Det-LAA– Greene 2-10; Weaver 3-10
Clev-Sea– Marcum 1-2; Elias 2-6
KC-Chi– Ventura 3-9; Wada 1-2
Umpires
Col-Phil– Four of last five Barry games stayed under.
Az-Mil– Four of six Blakney games stayed under.
Wsh-Cin– Three of last four Fletcher games stayed under.
Mia-NY– Six of last seven Dimuro games stayed under.
LA-StL– Pattillo is working first game of year; under was 8-6 in his ’14 tilts.
Atl-SF– Five of last seven LBarrett games stayed under.
Pitt-SD– Five of last six Tumpane games stayed under.
Tor-Minn– Underdogs won four of last seven Barksdale games.
TB-Balt– Six of seven Carapazza games stayed under.
Chi-Hst– Favorites won seven of eight Morales games.
Bos-Tex– Favorites won last five Segal games.
NY-A’s– Last seven Demuth games went over total.
Det-LA– Three of last four Cuzzi games went over total.
Cle-Sea– Five of last six Kellogg games stayed under.
KC-Cubs– Underdogs won last five Dreckman games.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Strasburg enduring stretch of futility
By Doc Sports
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend’s major-league schedule:
What’s wrong with Strasburg?
Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals is 3-5 with a 6.50 ERA this season. He has turned in only one quality start (back on April 19) and has lasted more than 5.1 innings only twice. Strasburg will get another shot on Friday at the Cincinnati Reds. The over is 5-1 in Strasburg’s last six starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road starts.
Break up the Twins!
The Minnesota Twins are on an American League-best current winning streak of five games and have surged into a tie for first with the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. Minnesota has scored 23 runs in its last four contests (3-1 O/U).
Juan gone
The Los Angeles Dodgers shipped veteran third baseman Juan Uribe to the Atlanta on Wednesday. Actually, with the Braves already in town for a three-game series, he was simply shipped across the infield to the other dugout. Uribe (.238, 1 HR, 6 RBI) went 0-for-3 in his debut on Wednesday. Fellow third baseman Chris Johnson was activated from the disabled list on Wednesday and some kind of platoon is expected.
Pitching Notes
* Outside of maybe the Dodgers’ Zack Greinke, no National League pitcher has been as consistently dominant as Pittsburgh Pirates’ starter A.J. Burnett. The 38-year-old is 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA and has turned in eight consecutive quality starts. He will get the nod again on Thursday night at the San Diego Padres. The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six overall and the under is 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
* Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals is coming off a miserable performance in which he gave up 11 runs on nine hits, three walks, and four homers in just one inning of a 14-1 loss at the New York Yankees on Monday. Guthrie, whose next start will come at the Chicago Cubs on Sunday afternoon, has an 8.17 ERA on the road in 2015 (thanks mainly to the aforementioned outing). He is sporting a 9.78 ERA in day games.
Hitting Notes
* Nobody is hotter at the moment than Texas Rangers’ first baseman Prince Fielder (.368, 10 HR, 38 RBI). He is on a six-game hitting streak with 15 hits, five home runs, and 15 RBIs in those five. Fielder has hit safely in 15 of his last 16 games and in 24 of his last 26 outings. He is batting .396 in May with nine dingers and 28 RBIs. The Rangers have won seven of their last eight games.
* The Milwaukee Brewers are the worst team in baseball with a winning percentage of .333 (16-32). They have lost five games in a row and have scored a total of 11 runs in those games. Three everyday players (Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, and Luis Sardinas) are hitting worse than .190 over the past seven days.
Totals Streak
Miami Marlins (25-21-2 O/U): The Marlins may go over the total more often than not, but the under has been dominant of late. It is 5-0 in Miami’s last five overall and 9-2 in the team’s last 11 games. The fish crossed the plate a total of five times in this week’s three-game sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have scored more than two runs only once in their last five outings.
Injury Notes
* The Cincinnati Reds’ pitching staff is banged up, to the extent that manager Bryan Price has no idea who is going to take the mound on Sunday against Washington. Johnny Cueto (elbow) and Jason Marquis (unspecified) are both in the mix. Marquis’ ERA (6.46) more than doubles that of Cueto (3.03).
* Toronto Blue Jays’ designated hitter Jose Bautista (.230, 7 HR, 30 RBI) is back after missing two games with a shoulder injury. The 34-year-old wasted no time producing, as he went 3-for-4 with three doubles and five RBIs in a 10-9 win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
Play Against – Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BALTIMORE) below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
125-111 over the last 5 seasons. ( 53.0% | 58.1 units )
7-10 this year. ( 41.2% | -0.6 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | TORONTO at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 48-34 (+29.4 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.8)
Game of the Day: Blackhawks at Ducks
** Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks (-129, 5)
Series tied 3-3
The Anaheim Ducks have been unable to take advantage of having home ice for a Game 7 in each of the last two postseasons. They hope to break that negative trend Saturday when they host the Chicago Blackhawks for the deciding contest of the Western Conference final.
Anaheim fell to Detroit in a 2013 first-round matchup that was eerily similar to this series, as it alternated wins and losses over the first six contests in the exact same way before suffering a 3-2 defeat at home in Game 7. Last postseason, the Ducks also held a 3-2 lead over the Kings in the conference semifinals before dropping Game 6 in Los Angeles and Game 7 at Honda Center. Chicago came up short in Game 7 of the conference final last year, succumbing to the Kings at home after bouncing back from a 3-1 series deficit. The Blackhawks are seeking their third Stanley Cup final appearance in six years while the Ducks are attempting to reach the final round for the second time in franchise history.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC, CBC, TVA
LINE HISTORY: Most books initially opened the Ducks -130, but it’s sitting at -129 after briefly dropping a few points.
INJURY REPORT: Blackhawks – D Michal Rozsival (Out-Ankle) Ducks – D Sheldon Souray (Out-Wrist)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “What better than a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a chance to go to the finals? With the Blackhawks seemingly stealing away the momentum in this series in Game 6 with a 5-2 win, the action is favoring the Blackhawks to win Game 7. The Blackhawks are getting 68 percent of the action on the moneyline and 85% of the action to cover the +1.5 puck line with the 5 goal total getting split action 50/50.” Michael Stewart, Carbon Sports.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “It’s tough to bet against the Blackhawks as they’ve been in games like this so many times before. Also hard to turn down the value as a play money return is being offered. The Ducks will undoubtedly get a better effort from Perry and Getzlaf than they did in Game 6 but the play of goaltender Frederik Andersen will be the real key to this game.” Sean Murphy
ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: It would be no surprise if Patrick Sharp scored a goal Saturday, as the veteran has tallied at least once in each of his last 19 playoff series. However, the 33-year-old has yet to get a shot past Frederik Andersen in this matchup, notching only three assists. Chicago would like to see a few other players record a goal in Game 7, as it is 15-0 in the playoffs when Marian Hossa tallies, 9-0 when Andrew Shaw scores and 6-0 when Marcus Kruger beats the opposing goaltender.
ABOUT THE DUCKS: Ryan Getzlaf, who leads the league with 17 playoff assists, did what most captains would do and accepted the blame for Anaheim’s loss in Game 6. “I thought the tension was there a little bit. It started with me,” Getzlaf said. “That’s on me. I’ve got to be better and calm our group down as we go.” Another member of the Ducks who will have to be better is Andersen, who has allowed at least four goals in each of the last three games (two losses) after yielding more than two only three times in his first 12 postseason contests.
TRENDS:
*Blackhawks are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
*Ducks are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
*Over is 9-1-2 in Blackhawks last 12 Conference Finals games.
*Under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings in Anaheim.
CONSENSUS: 59 percent of wagers are being placed on the favored Ducks.
2014-15 NHL WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS GAME 7
Chicago won first 14 faceoffs in Game 6, was 33-17 for game; home side won last three series games. Anaheim is 11-4 in playoffs this year but 3-3 in this series; two of Ducks’ losses in this series were in 3OT/2OT- over is 8-3-2 in last 13 Duck games, 4-0-2 in this series. Chicago won seven of its last 11 games with Anaheim; road team has won nine of last 13 series games. Over is 10-3-3 in last sixteen Chicago games. Ducks outhit Chicago 251-185 in last five games- they’re 2-14 on power play in this series;; Chicago is 3-22 on power play in series. Over is 7-4-2 in this round of the playoffs.
A quick start could mean a victory in Hawks-Ducks
Stephen Campbell
The team that’s scored the first goal in the Western Conference Finals has gone on to win each game of the series.
It’s do-or-die time as the stage is set for Game 7 between the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks Saturday evening.
Books are currently dealing the Ducks as -129 home faves for the postseason tilt.
‘Over’ cashes again in Blackhawks-Ducks series
By Andrew Avery
For the third-straight games, the Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks cashed over wagers thanks to a 5-2 Blackhawks’ win in Game 6 Wednesday evening.
The first two games of the series resulted in pushes while Game 3 was the lone scoreline to finish Under the closing number.
Game 7 is scheduled for Saturday evening in Anaheim.
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
New York Yankees + Oakland Athletics – UNDER 7.5
(System Record: 26-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 26-25
Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks +116 over Anaheim Ducks
(System Record: 108-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 108-90-11
Basketball Crusher
none
(System Record: 95-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 95-99-5
Soccer Crusher
Union + Godoy Cruz – OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 767-25, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 767-617-116
Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers -127 over Arizona D’backs
San Francisco Giants + Atlanta Braves – UNDER 7
Cleveland Indians + Seattle Mariners – OVER 8
Hockey
none
Basketball
none
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take Chicago Cubs over Kansas City (7 p.m., Saturday, May 30)
The Chicago Cubs have been playing good baseball at home lately, winning 6 of their last 8 at Wrigley Field, being led by their pitching staff that has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 5 of those contests. Jason Hammel has been rock-solid at home, going 1-0 with a 2.54 ERA in 4 starts with the Cubs winning 3 out of those 4 games. Yordano Ventura will have the ball for the Royals, and he has been anything but sharp when pitching on the road. Ventura is 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA in 5 starts away from home this season, and in his last 3 games he has allowed 14 earned runs over 18.1 innings pitched, with Kansas City losing all 3 of those starts. Playing at night should help the Cubs as they are hitting 50 points higher at night (.262) as compared to day games (.210). I think the Cubs will be able to get to Ventura early, and Hammel will do the rest to shut down the Royals for a Cubs win.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Boston at Texas (7 p.m., Saturday, May 30)
Expect some fireworks on Saturday in the matchup between the Red Sox and Rangers. Two shaky pitchers will get the ball to face a pair of offenses that have the potential to do plenty of damage. Joe Kelly has made nine starts this season, and in five of them he has allowed at least five earned runs. That includes his last outing where he yielded seven earned runs in 1.2 innings against the hapless Twins offense. Kelly is a mess, and the Rangers offense has added a big stick to its lineup in Josh Hamilton. Texas is already fourth in the league in runs scored, and the addition of Hamilton is only going to make them better. Phil Klein gets the ball for the Rangers, and he’s had a tough time adapting to life in the big leagues. In eight games Klein has amassed an 8.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP between the rotation and the bullpen. He clearly needs more seasoning in the minor leagues, but the Rangers are being stubborn and letting him work through his troubles. The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent this season, but they should be able to take advantage of a struggling hurler. We should see plenty of runs in this one, so the OVER is the play.
NEWSLETTER UFC Prediction From Alan Harris
Take #24402 Condit (-240) over Alves (8 p.m., Saturday, May 30)
A few years ago, this one would heave been a PPV Headliner. Now we get a good matchup between Carols Condit and Thiago Alves as the Main Event of UFC Fight Night 67, taking place Saturday night in Brazil. Alves was considered a top contender for the UFC 170 pound title. He got his shot against GSP and was beaten badly, which sent his career on a bit of a downward spiral. Injuries and losses started to pile up, and he has fought just 7 times since his loss to GSP at UFC 100, posting a 4-3 record. From 2009 to 2012 Carlos Condit, who is the former WEC Champion was considered by many to be the second best 170 pounder in the world. He had big wins over the likes of Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald and Dan Hardy, and it looked like he was headed straight to the top of the UFC ranks. He then went 1-3 in his next four fights, including a bad loss to Tyron Woodley where Condit wound up tearing his ACL. It’s not 14 months later, and he will be making his return to the octagon on Saturday to prove he can still be a contender. Normally an injury like a torn ACL would scare us off a guy, but there have been a few fighters in the past who have had the same injury and have actually come back stronger after letting both their knee and the rest of their body heal by taking a year or so off. Condit has a 6-inch reach advantage over Alves, and he will use that from the get go to keep Alves on the outside and not allowing him to land any power punches. This will also give Condit a huge advantage in landing his heavy strikes that he is known for. This one could end one of two ways. Either the reach advantage keeps Alves outside, allowing Condit to win by decision, or it allows Condit inside from the beginning and he winds up winning by TKO via strikes. Either way, we’ll lay the price on Condit to get the win over Alves as he looks to move back up the ladder towards a UFC title shot.
Pickstennis
Mitu C. – Schiavone F
Schiavone
Odd: 2.10
Kvitova P. – Begu I
Kvitova -3
Odd: 1,89
Williams S. – Azarenka V
Williams -3
Odd: 1,86
Betcash
Football. Russian Championship. Premier League
Dinamo v Krasnodar
Both to Score Both
Coefficient: 1.70
ON-Bets
Forecast favorites:
Beginning at 19.00
Italian Championship . Series A
Verona – Juventus
Win Juventus – 1.80
Bets-Group
Forecast for today
Kick-off at 13.30
Russian Championship. Premier League
Dynamo Moscow – FC Krasnodar
Both teams to score – yes – 1.85
Albert-vsesport
Football. England. Cup. Final. London
Kick 05.30.15 at 20:30
Arsenal – Aston Villa. Winning odds are given: Arsenal (-1)
Odds .: 1.88
Football. Bulgaria. Cup. Final. Burgas
Kick 05.30.15 at 21:00
Levski Sofia – Cherno More. Match Result: Levski Sofia (win)
Odds .: 1.80
SOCCER BETTING MASTERS
England » FA Cup » Arsenal – Aston Villa
Arsenal to win
Odds: 1.55
SIMON CERBONE (Soccer)
CZECH REPUBLIC – GAMBRINUS LIGA – (OVER 3 -116) FC VYSOCINA JIHLAVA @ FK MLADA BOLESLAV (1115AM)
JO-JO McCANN (Tennis)
ATP – ROLAND GARROS @ PARIS, FRANCE
D GOFFIN -180 J CHARDY (TBD)
WTA – ROLAND GARROS @ PARIS, FRANCE
A MITU -112 F SCHIAVONE (TBD)
A PETKOVIC -112 S ERRANI (TBD)
V AZARENKA +215 S WILLIAMS (TBD)
BOOKIESHUNTER
2* Over 7 – NYY vs OAK
GORDONS
$400 HOUSTON – 160
EZWINNERS
MLB – (ACTION)
5* (920) Astros -$165
3* (923) Yankees +$111
(Lines from Americasbookie.com)
BOB BALFE
Phillies -120 over Rockies
Harang/De La Rosa
(26-31 YTD Record)
HALL OF FAME PICKS
Seattle Mariners ML (-136)
PAUL LEINER
100* MLB – Twins -115
100* MLB – Giants -145
50* MLB – Orioles -135
BEN BURNS
10* UNDER 7.5 – LA DODGERS vs STL CARDINALS
10* UNDER 5 – CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS vs ANAHEIM DUCKS
7* LA ANGELS ML
6* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ML
6* HOUSTON ASTROS ML
6* MINNESOTA TWINS ML
RIVER CITY SHARPS – MLB (afternoon plays)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+125)
Miami Marlins (+120)
Toronto Blue Jays (+105)
Nationals/Reds – OVER 7.5 (-110)
Scott Spreitzer | MLB Money Line Sat, 05/30/15 – 4:10 PM
dime bet – 907 Mia (+118) vs 908 NYM
Analysis: I’m backing Miami on Saturday afternoon. The Marlins captured last night’s contest as an underdog to Matt Harvey, winning 4-3. I expect another win today. We have gone against Jonathan Niese a couple of times of late with success. Niese has been smacked for 16 earned runs and 30 base runners in his last three starts spanning just 16 innings. Today, the Mets’ lefty will face a Miami team that ranks 8th & 9th against southpaws in batting average and OBP. And current Miami Marlins have clocked Niese, posting a combined .359 batting average against him. Giancarlo Stanton leads the way with a .407 batting average, three home runs, and seven RBI in 27 at-bats. Meanwhile, current Mets’ hitters have been shut down by Tom Koehler, who has held New York to a .192 batting average. And while seven current Marlins are hitting .300 or better against Niese, just one member of the Mets is hitting .300 against Koehler. Miami enters on a 5-0 run when Koehler throws on five days rest, while the Mets are just 1-5 in Niese’s last six starts. I’m backing the Miami Marlins, My Daytime DogPound release.
HARRY BONDI
MLB
MINNESOTA (-115) over Toronto
2:10 p.m. ET
Even our FREE Picks are winning BIG, going 53-27 the last 80 days! The Twins continue to surprise this season and at times have remained underrated by the oddsmaker. Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson has been exceptional, posting a 2.72 ERA in nine starts, including a 1.40 ERA at home. But he’s not getting the respect he deserves because the team is just 5-4 in those starts and his record is a very average 4-3. That provides value here today against a Blue Jays team that is just 7-15 this season in games following a win and is a dismal 80-106 the last three seasons on the road. Compare that to the Twinkies’ 17-7 (+12.1 units) record this season at home and you can see why there’s value in laying this short price today. Take Minnesota!
FYI
Pitching Change Butler for De La Rosa – Colorado vs Phillies (Harang)