NCAA Football Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews
I think you can go ahead and put No. 2 Florida State in the four-team College Football Playoff now. The 2014 Seminoles are vastly more flawed than last year’s dominant champions, but FSU passed its final major test last Thursday night, rallying from a 21-0 deficit to win 42-31 at Louisville. The Noles were saved right before halftime when Nick O’Leary recovered teammate Karlos Williams’ fumble in the end zone to make it 21-7 and give FSU some momentum heading into the second half. If Louisville recovers that ball, I believe the Cardinals win. The Seminoles recorded 374 yards after halftime, more than Louisville had allowed in a full game.
FSU didn’t have a second-half deficit at all last regular season but has now had four in 2014. The Noles trailed for 37:18 total last year (not counting BCS title game) and 116:27 this. Jameis Winston battled through a sprained ankle in that game, but he should be good to go this week in a potential trap game at home vs. Virginia. The Noles have just one road game left and that’s at Miami (Fla.) on Nov. 15. The Hurricanes are improving and have looked great at home, but they aren’t ready to upset FSU. Don’t see Boston College or Florida winning in Tallahassee, and no Coastal team will beat Florida State in the ACC title game. Florida State is +700 on Sportsbook.ag to win the national title and -300 to win the ACC.
Here are some Week 11 games and opening lines from Asthebookie that caught my eye. It might be the best weekend of the regular season. All rankings are from College Football Playoff committee, so they will change Tuesday evening.
No. 16 Ohio State at No. 8 Michigan State (-3.5): This was circled as the clear game of the year in the Big Ten back in the spring and not a thing has changed it. Both clubs have an early nonconference loss, so the loser here can kiss the College Football Playoff goodbye. The winner will be heavily favored the rest of the way and in the Big Ten title game against the West Division leader. You know OSU is eager for payback after the Spartans ended the Buckeyes’ 24-game winning streak in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game. The pick: You can get this at 3 at some books, and at that number (it might drop to 2.5) I would lean Sparty. At 3.5, however, I’d go OSU.
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 14 Arizona State (-2): The Irish avoided a trap game on Saturday at Navy, but they can’t afford to slip up here against the Sun Devils or their College Football Playoff hopes are gone. Notre Dame will play the rest of the season without starting middle linebacker Joe Schmidt because of a fractured and dislocated left ankle. Schmidt leads Notre Dame in tackles (65) and has two interceptions, three quarterback hurries and two forced fumbles. True freshman Nyles Morgan replaced Schmidt late Saturday and will start moving forward. ASU isn’t out of the playoff conversation, either. The Sun Devils were somewhat fortunate to win at Utah in Week 10 and control their destiny to reach the Pac-12 title game. Obviously, this result wouldn’t affect that. The pick: ASU.
No. 9 Kansas State at No. 7 TCU (-5): The Frogs should have a clear path to the playoff if they can win this huge Big 12 game because there are no ranked teams left on TCU’s schedule after this. TCU won a 31-30 thriller at West Virginia on Saturday thanks to Jaden Oberkrom’s 37-yard field goal as time expired. Amazingly, that was TCU’s first game outside the state of Texas this year. The Mountaineers committed five turnovers, all in their own territory. K-State routed Oklahoma State, but I don’t think the Wildcats get to the playoff even with a win here. They still have to visit West Virginia and Baylor. The pick: TCU.
No. 6 Alabama at No. 19 LSU (+6.5): This is always one of the games of the year, and there’s plenty on the line Saturday night in Baton Rouge as Alabama looks for its fourth straight win against LSU. I’ll be curious to see the total here with LSU No. 4 in scoring defense and Alabama No. 2. Both clubs enter off a bye week. LSU would need a miracle to win the SEC West with two losses. The Tide control their own destiny in that regard, and this is their final road game. I can’t remember the last time LSU was getting nearly a touchdown at home. Neither can I the last time it was a dog twice at home in one season (Ole Miss game). The pick: Alabama (get before 7).
No. 5 Oregon at No. 17 Utah (+9.5): This could be a huge trap game for Oregon as the Ducks come off finally beating nemesis Stanford in Week 10, 45-16. Since the start of the 2012 season, Oregon is 31-0 when scoring at least 30 points and 0-4 when not. That victory likely sewed up the Heisman for Marcus Mariota unless he plays lousy here and the Ducks are upset. Oddsmakers were pretty impressed with the win over Stanford as Oregon is now the +450 national title favorite. Utah is four points from being unbeaten. The pick: I’m hoping this climbs to 10 or higher and think it will. There I like Utah to cover.
Washington State at Oregon State (-7.5): This line seems like great value for the Beavers because Wazzu lost quarterback Connor Halliday, the nation’s passing yardage and TD leader, in Saturday’s 44-17 loss to Southern Cal. Halliday broke his ankle when USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams, possibly the top pick in the 2015 draft, fell on his legs. Halliday finishes his career with 11,304 passing yards, most in Washington State history and fourth-best ever in the Pac-12. Freshman Luke Falk will start for him. He had thrown two career passes before putting it up 57 times in place of Halliday against the Trojans. The Beavers should roll now even though they have lost three straight and were upset at home by Cal on Saturday. The pick: OSU.
NCAA Football Game Picks
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Game 117-118: Penn State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 89.596; Indiana 80.432
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 9; 53
Vegas Line: Penn State by 5; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-5); Over
Game 119-120: Georgia at Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 97.653.753; Kentucky 95.126
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 2 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Georgia by 10; 57
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10); Over
Game 121-122: Louisiana Tech at UAB (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 91.770; UAB 81.125
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 10 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-3 1/2); Under
Game 123-124: Iowa at Minnesota (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 99.024; Minnesota 90.930
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Iowa by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-1); Under
Game 125-126: Michigan at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 88.983; Northwestern 85.113
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan; Over
Game 127-128: Georgia Tech at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 96.559; North Carolina State 88.663
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 8; 64
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-3 1/2); Over
Game 129-130: Wisconsin at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 99.860; Purdue 88.868
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 11; 49
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 17; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+17); Under
Game 131-132: UL-Monroe at Appalachian State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 69.287; Appalachian State 81.324
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 12; 51
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-3 1/2); Under
Game 133-134: Duke at Syracuse (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 92.083; Syracuse 85.512
Dunkel Line: Duke by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Duke by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-3); Under
Game 135-136: Florida at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 91.880; Vanderbilt 80.191
Dunkel Line: Florida by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Florida by 15; 45
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+15); Over
Game 137-138: Louisville at Boston College (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 102.005; Boston College 88.845
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 13; 52
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Over
Game 139-140: Iowa State at Kansas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 78.120; Kansas 78.252
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 4; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+4); Under
Game 141-142: South Alabama at Arkansas State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 69.671; Arkansas State 81.947
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 143-144: Tulane at Houston (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 73.293; Houston 98.314
Dunkel Line: Houston by 25; 56
Vegas Line: Houston by 17 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-17 1/2); Over
Game 145-146: Georgia State at Troy (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 50.259; Troy 58.721
Dunkel Line: Troy by 8 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Troy by 6 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-6 1/2); Under
Game 147-148: TX-San Antonio at Rice (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 62.692; Rice 86.601
Dunkel Line: Rice by 24; 52
Vegas Line: Rice by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-9 1/2); Over
Game 149-150: Florida International at Old Dominion (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 73.877; Old Dominion 66.481
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 7 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 5 1/2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+5 1/2); Over
Game 151 152: West Virginia at Texas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 106.453; Texas 89.935
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 16 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-3 1/2); Over
Game 153-154: UCLA at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 94.255; Washington 99.995
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: UCLA by 5; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5); Under
Game 155-156: SMU at Tulsa (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 58.466; Tulsa 73.161
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 14 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 12; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-12); Under
Game 157-158: Connecticut vs. Army (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.388; Army 68.406
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Army (+5); Under
Game 159-160: Texas A&M at Auburn (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 87.687; Auburn 112.237
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 24 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Auburn by 21; 66
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-21); Over
Game 161-162: Alabama at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 104.885; LSU 109.420
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+6 1/2); Under
Game 163-164: Baylor at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 104.380; Oklahoma 113.519
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 9; 76
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 5; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-5); Over
Game 165-166: Virginia at Florida State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 91.680; Florida State 105.506
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 14; 48
Vegas Line: Florida State by 20; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+20); Under
Game 167-168: UTEP at Western Kentucky (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 75.634; Western Kentucky 86.122
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 10 1/2; 75
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 7; 70 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-7); Over
Game 169-170: Washington State at Oregon State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 91.044; Oregon State 92.989
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 2; 57
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 8; 63
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+8); Under
Game 171-172: Air Force at UNLV (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 82.051; UNLV 73.002
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 9; 64
Vegas Line: Air Force by 5 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-5 1/2); Over
Game 173-174: Idaho at San Diego State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 63.362; San Diego State 81.556
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 18; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 21; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+21); Under
Game 175-176: Marshall at Southern Mississippi (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 97.816; Southern Mississippi 72.259
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 25 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 177-178: Florida Atlantic at North Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 75.035; North Texas 74.053
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 4; 56
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+4); Under
Game 179-180:Georgia Southern at Texas State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 82.988; Texas State 67.581
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 15 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 12; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-12); Under
Game 181-182: Colorado at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 81.745; Arizona 101.430
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 19 1/2; 73
Vegas Line: Arizona by 16; 69
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-16); Over
Game 183-184:Boise State at New Mexico (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 90.265; New Mexico 80.487
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 10; 59
Vegas Line: Boise State by 18 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+18 1/2); Under
Game 185-186: Hawaii at Colorado State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 71.802; Colorado State 91.634
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 20; 62
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 17; 56
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-17); Over
Game 187-188:Ohio State at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 107.185; Michigan State 113.254
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 6; 53
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-3); Under
Game 189-190: UL-Lafayette at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 76.595; New Mexico State 63.409
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 13; 68
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 16; 64
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+16); Over
Game 191-192: Notre Dame at Arizona State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 105.038; Arizona State 103.467
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 1 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 2 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+2 1/2); Over
Game 193-194: Oregon at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 111.758; Utah 100.571
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 11; 58
Vegas Line: Oregon by 8; 61
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-8); Under
Game 195-196: Kansas State at TCU (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 110.676; TCU 113.501
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 62
Vegas Line: TCU by 6 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick:: Kansas State (+6 1/2); Over
Game 197-198: San Jose State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 77.176; Fresno State 69.370
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 2; 59
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+2); Under
OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Game 211-212: Presbyterian at Mississippi (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 58.323; Mississippi 106.538
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 48; 56
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 213-214: Tennessee-Martin at Mississippi State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 61.825; Mississippi State 114.547
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 52 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
OTHER GAMES:
Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 48.281; Charleston Southern 65.488
Dunkel Line: Charleston Southern by 17
Coastal Carolina at Charlotte (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 71.579; Charlotte 54.846
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 16 1/2
Bryant at Duquesne (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 63.882; Duquesne 55.657
Dunkel Line: Bryant by 8
Wagner at Robert Morris (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wagner 45.204; Robert Morris 37.765
Dunkel Line: Wagner by 7 1/2
Dartmouth at Cornell (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 57.596; Cornell 40.991
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 16 1/2
New Hampshire at Rhode Island (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 79.304; Rhode Island 43.435
Dunkel Line: New Hampshire by 36
Richmond at Maine (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 71.491; Maine 54.737
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 16 1/2
Yale at Brown (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 60.000; Brown 56.195
Dunkel Line: Yale by 4
Lehigh at Holy Cross (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 51.594; Holy Cross 58.093
Dunkel Line: Holy Cross by 6 1/2
Morgan State at North Carolina A&T (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 53.329; North Carolina A&T 60.823
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 7 1/2
Jacksonville at Davidson (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 47.702; Davidson 23.335
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 24 1/2
Drake at Dayton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 41.161; Dayton 45.630
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 4 1/2
Murray State at Eastern Illinois (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 44.268; Eastern Illinois 79.778
Dunkel Line: Eastern Illinois by 35 1/2
Jacksonville State at Eastern Kentucky (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 72.926; Eastern Kentucky 66.726
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 6 1/2
Lafayette at Colgate (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lafayette 50.794; Colgate 56.649
Dunkel Line: Colgate by 6
Columbia at Harvard (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 29.560; Harvard 75.412
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 46
Wofford at Chattanooga (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 61.234; Chattanooga 81.825
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 20 1/2
James Madison at Stony Brook (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 67.319; Stony Brook 68.563
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 1
Sacred Heart at Central Connecticut State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 55.520; Central Connecticut State 43.303
Dunkel Line: Sacred Heart by 12
Weber State at North Dakota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 54.679; North Dakota 63.639
Dunkel Line: North Dakota by 9
South Dakota State at Indiana State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 72.813; Indiana State 80.350
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 7 1/2
Youngstown State at Illinois State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 73.557; Illinois State 81.626
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 8
Alcorn State at Alabama A&M (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 62.212; Alabama A&M 44.212
Dunkel Line: Alcorn State by 18
Jackson State at Alabama State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 28.879; Alabama State 45.750
Dunkel Line: Alabama State by 17
Furman at The Citadel (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 39.124; The Citadel 58.409
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 19 1/2
Butler at Valparaiso (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 32.340; Valparaiso 21.933
Dunkel Line: Butler by 10 1/2
Hampton at North Carolina Central (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 50.743; North Carolina Central 55.818
Dunkel Line: North Carolina Central by 5
SE Missouri State at Tennessee Tech (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 51.831; Tennessee Tech 53.075
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 1
South Carolina State at Florida A&M (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 59.663; Florida A&M 44.876
Dunkel Line: South Carolina State by 15
Southern Illinois at Missouri State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 68.892; Missouri State 74.993
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 6
Northwestern State at Abilene Christian (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern State 62.680; Abilene Christian 66.951
Dunkel Line: Abilene Christian by 4 1/2
Marist at Stetson (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 36.376; Stetson 30.492
Dunkel Line: Marist by 6
Montana at Eastern Washington (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 65.642; Eastern Washington 79.849
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 14
Elon at William & Mary (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 49.081; William & Mary 67.313
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 18
Delaware at Albany (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 52.518; Albany 62.763
Dunkel Line: Albany by 10
Western Carolina at Samford (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 53.709; Samford 67.710
Dunkel Line: Samford by 14
Prairie View A&M at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 47.374; Arkansas-Pine Bluff 37.200
Dunkel Line: Prairie View A&M by 10
Monmouth at Liberty (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 45.381; Liberty 72.728
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 27 1/2
Penn at Princeton (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn 44.766; Princeton 53.853
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 9
UC-Davis at Northern Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 51.697; Northern Arizona 66.221
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 14 1/2
Houston Baptist at SE Louisiana (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 17.830; SE Louisiana 72.591
Dunkel Line: SE Louisiana by 54 1/2
Lamar at Central Arkansas (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lamar 60.001; Central Arkansas 68.723
Dunkel Line: Central Arkansas by 8 1/2
Morehead State at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 20.732; San Diego 49.507
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 29
Portland State at Montana State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 58.685; Montana State 74.838
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 16
Cal Poly at Idaho State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 75.139; Idaho State 76.786
Dunkel Line: Idaho State by 1 1/2
Southern Utah at Sacramento State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 61.433; Sacramento State 55.037
Dunkel Line: Southern Utah by 6 1/2
North Dakota State at Northern Iowa (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 92.895; Northern Iowa 85.225
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 7 1/2
Western Illinois at South Dakota (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 69.521; South Dakota 63.030
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 6 1/2
Tennessee State at Austin Peay (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 53.736; Austin Peay 36.874
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 17
Howard at Savannah State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 40.659; Savannah State 27.670
Dunkel Line: Howard by 13
Texas Southern at Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 32.836; Southern 47.334
Dunkel Line: Southern by 14 1/2
Stephen F. Austin at McNeese State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 63.387; McNeese State 70.137
Dunkel Line: McNeese State by 7
Towson at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 51.708; Villanova 76.925
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 26
Sam Houston State at Incarnate Word (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston State 73.548; Incarnate Word 38.235
Dunkel Line: Sam Houston State by 35 1/2
College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 11
Week 11 of the college football season is packed with marquee matchups featuring Top 25 teams. If you don’t have time to break down all the best games on the board, we do the heavy lifting with our NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet:
(17) Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+10)
*With Todd Gurley suspended, Nick Chubb has really picked up the slack out of the back field. In the three games that Gurley has missed, the freshman has rushed for 501 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are coming off their first ATS loss without Gurley as they head into Kentucky, however.
*Kentucky’s defense will have its hands full with the Georgia rushing attack. The Wildcats rank 94th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground.
Presbyterian Blue Hose at (13) Ole Miss Rebels (OTB)
*The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.
*Ole Miss will start life without WR Laquon Treadwell against Presbyterian. Treadwell, the Rebels leader in receptions and touchdown catches, fractured his leg last week.
(10) Baylor Bears at (16) Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
*Baylor has scored at least one touchdown in 29 of 32 quarters of action this season, but the Bears seem to do most of their damage early. Baylor has scored at least one TD in the first quarter of all seven games this year and is outscoring opponents 137-35 in the opening quarter.
*Oklahoma got a bit of a scare when Sterling Shepard strained his groin last week, but Bob Stoops told reporters early this week that “we’re optimistic that it will heal enough that he’ll be full speed (for Baylor)”. Shepard leads the Big 12 in receiving yards per game (119.6).
(24) Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers (+17)
*With 19 total touchdowns, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring at 14.3 points per game, trailing only Western Michigan running back Jarvion Franklin (14.7).
*The Boilermakers have been putting up an average of 27 ppg, but there’s no single threat for defenses to key in on. Purdue has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, but no receiver has caught more than one in a single game.
(20) Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+3)
*Duke boasts the highest-ranked offensive line in the country in regard to keeping its quarterback upright, surrendering just 0.50 sacks per game and a total of 4.0 this season.
*The running game will be key for the Orange, who are 3-1 when someone rushes for 100-plus yards and 0-5 when none of their ballcarriers reach that mark.
Texas A&M Aggies at (3) Auburn Tigers (-23.5)
*Texas A&M will turn to freshman Kyle Allen at quarterback for the second straight game after Kenny Hill’s suspension by the team. “Operationally (Allen) was good there. That’s what you worry about with any young quarterback from an operational standpoint,” Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin said this week. “Our communication could get better. We missed a couple signals on the perimeter, whether that’s the receivers or him.”
*Auburn certainly prefers to get into shootouts. Since 2005, the Tigers are 16-1 SU in games when teams both score 30 or more points.
(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (-2.5)
*Notre Dame has been in command of its games this year. The Irish have trailed for just 11.1 percent of the season, 53:27 out of 480:00 of action. The Irish have held the lead for 304:05 or 63.4 percent of the season.
*ASU is facing its fifth AP-ranked opponent in the last five six played, which is the most the Sun Devils have played in such a short span ever. Against Top 25 teams during that span, the Sun Devils are 4-1 AU and 3-2 ATS.
(25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns (+3.5)
*”I thought I did a pretty terrible job of managing the game,” WVU’s Clink Trickett said after throwing two interceptions last week. “Couple turnovers – I’ve got to be able to hold on to the ball and be more conscious of that.”
*Home field has not meant an advantage for the Longhorns, as they are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on their turf. “It’s tough because this is supposed to be our home, and you’re always expected to defend your home,” Longhorns LB Jordan Hicks said this week.
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (OTB)
*Skyhawks Abou Toure has been lighting in up on the ground over the past two weeks. In Tennessee-Martin’s past two games, the senior has rushed for 348 yards and five touchdowns.
*It is understandable why Dak Prescott is a leading Heisman candidate as he leads the nation in 200 yard passing/100 yard rushing games, achieving the feat four times this season.
Virginia Cavaliers at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-19.5)
*When you look at Virginia’s passing attack, the first thing you notice is balance. The Cavaliers are one of only four teams in FBS that have five or more players with at least 20 receptions, which means the FSU secondary will need to be ready for threats from all angles.
*Jameis Winston has been outstanding while playing in Tallahassee during his career. The pivot has led the Seminoles to a 11-0 SU record and 9-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents 255-37.
(18) UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (+4.5)
*Despite winning their last two games (1-1 ATS), the Bruins have had serious penalty issues heading into the game versus Washington. UCLA has been penalized a combined 25 times for 239 yards in those previous two games. The Bruins rank 115 in the Nation seeing 8.2 flags per game.
*Good news for the Washington Huskies offensive line as LG Dexter Charles is expected to return to the lineup. Charles miss the last two weeks after suffering a foot injury.
(22) Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (OTB)
*Along with No.1 Mississippi State and No. 2 Florida State, Marshall is one of three programs to remain unbeaten straight up. The best at the betting window of those three? The Thundering Herd, who are 6-2 against the spread (MSU 5-3 ATS, FSU 2-6 ATS).
*Southern Miss coach Todd Monken was quick to defend quarterback Cole Weeks after a four-turnover performance one week ago. “It wasn’t one guy,” Monken told the Hattiesburg American. “Because you might’ve had a protection issue and that’s not necessarily the offensive line’s fault. It might have been a running back. And a guy hits you when you’re not looking and the ball comes out, I don’t know how you can blame the quarterback for that.”
(9) Kansas State Wildcats at (7) TCU Horned Frogs (-6)
*Kansas State is 39 of 42 in the red zone this season, including 25 straight scores (19 touchdowns and six field goals) during the past five games.
*Though officially listed as questionable, TCU’s RB B.J Catalon has not practiced all week. Catalon leads the Horned Frogs with 493 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Colorado Buffaloes at (21) Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)
*Colorado needs to stop their sudden case of the fumbles if they want to compete with Arizona. The Buffaloes lost three fumbles last week after recording only one in their first eight games.
*”There are so many things we can do better,” Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez told reporters after the Wildcats were held to 255 yards, 80 on the ground, last week.
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at (15) LSU Tigers (-3.5)
*Since 2009, no defense has allowed fewer touchdowns than the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense has surrendered just 104 touchdowns over the last 75 games. That is 39 fewer than the second most in the nation (LSU with 143).
*LSU is 46-3 in Saturday night games in Tiger Stadium under Les Miles. All three of those losses coming to teams that were either No. 1 at the time or reached No. 1 at some point during the year.
(11) Ohio State Buckeyes at (6) Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)
*The Buckeyes have outscored their last six opponents by a combined 189-38 in the first half, shutting out the last two in the opening 30 minutes.
*Smack talk is flying between the Spartans and Buckeyes. Senior Spartans LB Taiwan Jones called Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett a “way better QB” with a “better arm” than starter Braxton Miller.
(5) Oregon Ducks at (22) Utah Utes (+8)
*Ducks LT Jake FIsher has been the key to a stellar offense. Oregon has not allowed a sack in four of the seven games the senior has played this season, but have given up 12 in the two games he has missed.
*The Utes, who lead the netion with 39 sacks, are currently on pace to produce the second-highest sack total in the past decade of college football play.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CFB | FLA ATLANTIC at NORTH TEXAS
Play Against – A home team (NORTH TEXAS) in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
CFB | WISCONSIN at PURDUE
Play On – A home team vs. the money line (PURDUE) terrible passing team (<=5.6 PY/Att.) against a good passing defense (5.6-6.4 PY/Att.)
97-93 since 1997. ( 51.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | OHIO ST at MICHIGAN ST
Play Against – Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (OHIO ST) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a home win
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
NCAAF Saturday’s games
Top games of week
Penn State lost last four games, last three by 7 or less points; they’re 1-1 on road this season, winning 13-10 at Rutgers. Indiana (+3.5) beat Penn State 44-24 LY, its first series win in last 13 tries; Lions won last seven visits here, all by 11+ points. Indiana allowed 45 ppg in losing last three games; they’re 5-6 as home dogs under Wilson, 0-1 this year. Penn State is 2-4 in last six games as a road favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 5-5 this year.
Iowa won 10 of last 13 games with Minnesota, winning 23-7/31-13 last two years; Hawkeyes are 4-3 as series road favorite, but just 2-3 SU in last five visits here. Gophers are 4-0 at home this year, 1-1 as underdog; they’re 6-6 as home dogs under Kill. Iowa scored 41.3 ppg in last three games; they’re 2-1 on road and covered last five tries as a road favorite. Minnesota lost 28-24 to Illinois in last game, despite outgaining Illini by 148 yards.
Michigan was outscored 92-35 in losing its first three road games; they won eight of last nine games with Northwestern, last three by 8-7-18, in series where underdogs covered five of last six in series. Wolverines won five in a row in Evanston, all by 8+ points. Wildcats allowed 36.7 ppg in losing last three games by combined 110-41; they gave up 14 points or less in all three wins, 23+ in losses- they’re 1-3 at home vs I-A teams. Michigan is 0-5 this year when they allow more than 14 points.
Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight Georgia Tech-NC State tilts; Tech won last four visits here, all by 7+ points, in series where host lost last five games. State lost four of last five games and was outgained by 38 yards in LW’s win at Syracuse; they’ve been outgained in six of eight I-A games. Tech scored 44.7 ppg in its last three games; they’re 3-1 on road, with average total of 73.5 in those games. ACC home underdogs are 8-6 against spread this season.
Louisville lost two of last three games after 5-1 start; all six of its wins are by 10+ points. Cardinals had Florida State 21-0/24-7 last Thursday; their next game is at Notre Dame, so bit of trap game here, vs BC squad that won three of last four games, but lost last two home games by total of seven points (Colo State/Clemson). Eagles scored 23+ points in all six of its wins, 21 or less in losses; they’re 7-3 vs spread under Addazio at home, 2-2 this season.
Texas won both Big X meetings with West Virginia, 48-45 here, 47-40 in Moergantown LY; Mountaineers scored 30+ points in each of last seven games, but tough to bounce back after 31-30 loss to TCU at gun LW, in a game WV led 13-7 at half. Longhorns lost three of last five games- they allowed 13 or less points in three of four wins (4th was 48-45 vs Iowa State). WV scored 37 ppg in winning all three road games; they’ve had -3 turnover game four times in last seven games.
UCLA coach Mora is Washington alum; his Bruins are 7-2, winning last three games by 2-3-10 points- they’re 2-7 vs spread, with three of four road wins by 8 or less points (1-3 as home favorite this year, 4-5 under Mora overall. Huskies are 2-3 in last five games after 4-0 start; they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, 5-2 in last seven overall as home dog. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread. UCLA allowed 30+ points in four of its last five games.
Alabama won five of last seven games with LSU, with three of last five in series decided by 4 or less points. Bama split its last eight visits here, with dogs 5-3 vs spread in those games. Tide scored 93 points in its last two games after fans complained about 14-13 win at Arkansas. Alabama is 0-4 as favorite away from home this year, 2-8 in last 10 overall away from home. Tigers allowed 12.3 ppg in winning three straight since 41-7 loss at Auburn; they’re 3-2 as home dogs under Miles.
Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 Baylor-Oklahoma games; Bears lost last eight visits to Norman, last seven by 7+ points. Average total in last four series games is 72.3. Baylor ran ball for 587 yards in last two series games; they’ve scored 45+ points in six of eight games this year, but scored 28-27 in last two road games. Baylor is 11-8 under Briles as a road underdog. Sooners scored 30+ points in every game this year, with three of last four games decided by 5 or less points (2-2).
Underdogs won last three Ohio State-Michigan State games SU; OSU is 4-0 in last four visits here, with three wins by 13+ points. Buckeyes are 5-1 vs spread in last six games, scoring 50+ points in all five covers- only non-cover was 31-24 OT win (-14) at Penn State. Spartans won last six games since loss at Oregon (4-2 vs spread); they scored 45.3 ppg in last three games. Big 14 home favorites are 11-11 vs spread. Buckeyes ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last five series games.
Notre Dame (+6.5) beat Arizona State 37-34 LY in Dallas, in game that total yardage was 427-424 ASU. Sun Devils threw ball for 362 yards in game that Irish led 14-13 at half. ND 37.7 ppg in last three games, giving up 39 to Navy’s option attack- they lost 31-27 at Florida State in their only true road game this year. ASU got QB Kelly back last week; they’re 4-0 since getting waxed by UCLA, allowing 12 ppg in last three games. Pac-12 non-conference home favorites are 8-5 this year.
Oregon scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four games since Arizona upset them; Ducks won four of last five games with Utah; three of four wins were by 14+ points. Utes (+28) lost 44-21 at Oregon LY (433-297 TY); they’re 6-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdog- their last five games were all decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Oregon allowed 34 ppg in winning all three games away from home- they scored 46.3 ppg. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread this season.
Kansas State beat TCU last two years, 23-10 (-6.5) here two years ago, 33-31 (-11) at home LY; Wildcats covered last six games, winning five in row since 20-14 loss at Auburn. Snyder covered 13 of last 16 tries as a road underdog, winning SU at Oklahoma last month. Three of last five TCU games were decided by 4 or less points; Horned Frogs scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four home games vs I-A teams. Big X home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in conference play.
Where the action is: Saturday’s biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN
There is a surplus of marquee matchups on the NCAAF Week 11 schedule. That’s kept oddsmakers on their toes, as action pours in on Saturday’s slate.
We talk to Scott Kaminsky of The Greek about the biggest adjustments on the Week 11 board and where those odds will end by kickoff.
SMU Mustangs at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Open: -10.5, Move: -14
This “Toilet Bowl” is a matchup of teams with just one win between them. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from moving this number 3.5 points to the key two-touchdown spread. It doesn’t matter who the Mustangs face each week, the action is going against them.
“I’m making it a rule to bet against SMU each week,” jokes Kaminsky. “But I looked at Tulsa and just couldn’t do it. But when it comes to the Mustangs, you might as well just bet the opening number. They’ve bet against SMU every week. I actually opened this game SMU +12 because they beat them every week.”
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: +2.5, Move: -1
Wiseguys have pushed this spread over the fence, with Minnesota going from a home underdog to home favorite. The Gophers are undefeated inside TCF Bank Stadium this season with a 3-2 ATS record as hosts.
“The basic reason behind the move is the wiseguys have their own set of odds and must have Minnesota at like -3 or -4,” says Kaminsky. “The bet Minnesota thinking they should be the favorite in this game.”
Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers – Open: -20.5, Move: -23.5
The Aggies are far from the team that stunned college football bettors in Week 1. Texas A&M has backup Kyle Allen under center with Kenny Hill still serving a suspension, and barely did enough to get past UL Monroe last weekend. Action has puffed up Auburn’s odds by a field goal as of Friday afternoon.
“Seems like Texas A&M is getting worse week after week,” says Kaminsky. “They came out that first week against South Carolina and you thought it was the second coming of Manziel. That’s just isn’t the case.”
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies – Open: +4, Move: +6.5
This spread is creeping toward a touchdown with money on the Bruins. However, UCLA hits the road with some serious defensive issues. While it was able to limit Arizona to a touchdown last week, the Bruins allowed an average of 35.75 points in the four game prior.
“They’ve been good this season, with their only losses to Utah and Oregon. But their defense has given up a lot,” says Kaminsky. “That’s a lot of yards – over 400 yards per game (414.9 yards against per game, actually).”
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: 60, Move: -55.5
This total has dipped as much as 4.5 points at some markets. While the Buckeyes have steamrolled opponent with a potent scoring attack – averaging 45.6 points – bettors are expecting a hardnosed Big Ten battle that could have a huge impact on the conference’s position in the College Football Playoff.
“If I were betting it, I’d look at the Under,” says Kaminsky. “Both of these teams can put up points but both of the defenses are decent and this is a pretty big number.”
The best bets in college football you didn’t know about
By KEVIN CAUSEY
If you’re looking for college football’s biggest breadwinners, don’t waste your time betting on power conference programs. While a few top-tier teams have held their own against the spread, these small schools have consistently cashed in – and you didn’t even notice.
Georgia Southern Eagles: 7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS
The Eagles have been a 17-point or greater favorite in their last five games despite this being their first year in the FBS. They’ve covered in all of those contests except a road stop at New Mexico State.
Georgia Southern currently leads the nation in rushing yards, average yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. The Eagles are also 17th in turnover margin. An option team that doesn’t turn the ball over (they’ve lost only nine on the year) is dangerous.
Southern has also benefited from playing a weak schedule. The last five teams it’s faced have a combined record of 8-35 SU this season. Bettor should be wary of GSU when the schedule amps up the last three weeks of the season, with two of those games (at Texas State, at Navy) on the road.
Western Michigan Broncos: 6-3 SU, 8-1 ATS
The Broncos were just 1-11 SU in 2013 so they’ve received some favorable spreads at the beginning of the year. But they’ve also won some impressive games outright (at Ball State and at Bowling Green).
A positive note is that WMU is getting better as the season goes on and has covered the spread by double-digits in each of the last three weeks (Broncos averaging plus-10.5 vs. the spread this season).
The Broncos are also doing it on both sides of the football, as they have the third-ranked offense and the third-ranked defense in the MAC. The next two games are against Central Michigan (5-5 ATS) and Eastern Michigan (4-5 ATS) – two in state rivalries for Western Michigan.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS
Like Western Michigan, the Bulldogs had a bad 2013 which resulted in them receiving some favorable spreads to start the season. With that, they still had to back into a cover in the opener against Oklahoma. Their last two wins have been solid, crushing Western Kentucky and winning at Southern Mississippi (the Golden Eagles scored late to make this look closer than it was).
What should scare you about the Bulldogs is their inconsistency. On the year, Louisiana Tech has three losses: Oklahoma, Auburn and Northwestern State. One of these things is not like the others. A team that loses to an FCS school is probably not the wisest place to invest your money but keep an eye on the line for the Old Dominion game in two weeks (ODU is 2-7 ATS).
UMass Minutemen: 2-7 SU, 7-2 ATS
The Minutemen are a team that is performing way above their previous versions and have won two of their last three games outright. They do have a backdoor cover against Bowling Green and they’ve blown some late leads (Miami (Ohio) and Vanderbilt) but they’re getting better.
Massachusetts has covered in five straight games, set as an underdog in all but one of those outings. In fact, UMass was a 15-point favorite versus Eastern Michigan two weeks ago – the first time it’s been favored since Week 9 of last season (-4 vs. Western Michigan).
The Minutemen have Ball State (4-4 ATS), Akron (2-6 ATS) and Buffalo (3-5 ATS) left on their schedule and enjoy a bye in Week 11 before playing two of their next three at home, where they’re 3-1 ATS.
Game of the Day: Ohio State at Michigan State
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5, 56)
The biggest game of the year in the Big Ten is set to take place Saturday night when No. 6 Michigan State hosts No. 11 Ohio State, putting the winner on course for a berth in the Big Ten Championship game. The Buckeyes have won 20 consecutive regular-season conference games and the Spartans 13, but Michigan State still holds bragging rights thanks to its 34-24 win against Ohio State in last season’s Big Ten title game. The victory erased a nation-leading 24-game winning streak by the Buckeyes.
Rain and temperatures in the low 40s are forecasted for Saturday night in East Lansing and if that holds true, the team with the better ground game could have the edge. Michigan State is led by running back Jeremy Langford, who has rushed for 841 yards and 10 touchdowns and comes in with five straight 100-yard rushing efforts. Ohio State is sturdy against the run, however, allowing 118.6 rushing yards per game – 18th in the FBS.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Michigan State -3.5
LINE HISTORY: The line opened at MSU -3.5 and has yet to move from that point. The opening total of 58.5 has dropped to 56 as of Friday afternoon.
INJURY REPORT: Ohio State – CB Armani Reeves (Doub-Head) Michigan State – LB Mylan Hicks (Prob-Arm), DL James Kittredge (Ques, Lower body)
WEATHER REPORT: Rain is expected to fall throughout the game, but it is not suppose to amount to much. The game will also be played in cold weather as temperatures will sit around the 37°F.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “The Buckeyes lost at home to the Spartans last year, and they have a chance to avenge that loss this week. The Spartans are still the front-runner to win the Big-10, and a dark horse playoff contender.” – Jesse Shule
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “The winner is firmly in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten and qualify for the playoff. We opened this game at Michigan State -2 with some juice. Sharps moved the spread moved to -3.5 within the first hour, and that’s what we’re currently dealing. The public has followed as we have around 70 percent of our handle on the home team. The under has been hammered by both parties as well, dropping from 63.5 to 56. We’d love to see Ohio State win a shootout, but as I said before, I think the Sparties come out on top.” – John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Booksmaker.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 7-1 O/U): Ezekiel Elliott continues to be No. 1 on the depth chart at running back for the Buckeyes, but freshman Curtis Samuel has put his name in the hat as a viable No. 2 option and possibly more. He didn’t get a carry in a double-overtime win against Penn State two weeks ago but was handed the ball nine times last weekend against Illinois and came through with 63 yards and two touchdowns. J.T. Barrett continues to improve at quarterback, totaling 20 touchdown passes and three interceptions in the last six games – all victories.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 7-1 O/U): The Spartans did not play last week, which gave them a few extra days to relish their 35-11 victory against Michigan on Oct. 25. During the break, quarterback Connor Cook divulged that he planned to return for his senior year next season, eliciting a sigh of relief from Michigan State fans. That’s not such good news for Ohio State, which was torched by Cook’s 304 passing yards and three touchdowns in last season’s title game.
TRENDS:
*Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 13-3 in Buckeyes last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 9-1 in Spartans last 10 games overall.
*Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 60.76 percent are backing Michigan State with 53.1 percent on the over.
Holes in Kentucky’s defense could spell trouble
Stephen Campbell
Kentucky could be in for a long day against a fierce Georgia rushing attack in Week 11 college football action Saturday.
The Wildcats rank 94th in the Nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground. In the absence of star runningback Todd Gurley, the Bulldogs have still managed to put up great numbers in the backfield, as Nick Chubb has 501 yards and four touchdowns in Gurley’s absence.
Kentucky is presently 10-point home dogs with an O/U of 55.5.
Aggies turn to Allen once again vs. Auburn
Stephen Campbell
Texas A&M will give the reigns of the quarterback position once again to freshman Kyle Allen in the wake of Kenny Hill’s suspension by the squad.
“Operationally, (Allen) was good out there. That’s what you worry about with any young quarterback from an operational standpoint,” said Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin this week. “Our communication could get better. We missed a couple signals on the perimeter, whether that’s the receivers or him.”
The Aggies face off against No. 3 Auburn Saturday. The Tigers are presently 23.5-point home faves with a total of 68.5.
Purdue sharing the load on offense
Stephen Campbell
The Purdue Boilermakers have been spreading the ball around on offense and then some this year.
Purdue has been putting up an average of 27 points per game, but there’s no single threat for defenses to key in on. The Boilermakers have thrown 13 touchdown passes on the campaign, but no receiver has caught mroe than one in a single game yet.
The Boilermakers are presently 17-point home dogs for their matchup against No. 24 Wisconsin Saturday.
Blue Hose gaining notoriety on the ground
Stephen Campbell
The Presbyterian Blue Hose have done a fantastic job running the football this season, something they’ll need to do well against No. 13 Ole Miss Saturday.
The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.
Arizona State standing tall vs. ranked opponents
Stephen Campbell
Despite facing some stiff competition, Arizona State has been coming through in a big way when it counts.
The No. 12 Sun Devils take on No. 8 Notre Dame Saturday – their fifth ranked opponent in their last six games.
Arizona State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against ranked competition. They’re currently 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 60.
Football Crusher
Boston College +3 over Louisville
(System Record: 26-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 26-24-2
Hockey Crusher
Calgary Flames -110 over Florida Panthers
(System Record: 16-1, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-10
Basketball Crusher
New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 over San Antonio Spurs
(System Record: 5-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 5-4
Soccer Crusher
Independiente + Gimnasia LP UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 658-22, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 658-545-101
Here are the rest of his football, hockey and basketball plays for today…
Football Crusher
Ohio State +3.5 over Mich State
Utah +8 over Oregon
Air Force -4.5 over UNLV
Hockey Crusher
New York Islanders -120 over Arizona Cayotes
Tampa Bay Lightning -155 over Columbus Blue Jackets
Ottawa Senators -139 over Winnipeg Jets
Basketball Crusher
Golden State Warriors +4 over Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks +6 over Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat + Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 203
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take #171 Air Force (-6) over UNLV (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 8)
This is the week! Our Big 10 Game of the Year kicks off this weekend, and you absolutely do not want to miss this one. This play won 19 straight years during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and this is our signature play of the college football season. Everyone is waiting on this game, and it will be posted Thursday. The Falcons have quietly had a monster bounce back season, currently 6-2 on the season and winners of 5 of their last 6 games. The Falcons have won 9 of the 12 meetings with the Rebels, and UNLV has won just one game since September 7. Air Force is always a difficult team to prepare for, and they are much more explosive this season since they can throw the ball out of the triple-option attack. This will be a high-scoring game, but in the end Air Force pulls away from UNLV to win by double digits. UNLV is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Do not miss Doc’s Sports weekend football card, highlighted by our World Famous Big 10 Game of the Year. This is the selection that won a record 19 years in a row during the 1970, 1980s, 1990s and is one of the most sought-out games in the entire country.
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Mike Davis
Take #154 Washington (+5) over UCLA (7 p.m., Saturday, November 8)
I have been having an awesome football season, and the big play winners are going to keep flowing. I have gone 17-5 with my last 22 college picks overall and 13-4 on my picks of 7.0 or higher, and I have an 8-Unit SEC Game of the Year this weekend. UCLA was everyone’s darling team coming into this season and rightfully so. Brett Hundley was thought to be a high draft pick at the quarterback position, and it seemed like Jim Mora had this UCLA team ready to make some noise. They showed their talent in game 4 as they destroyed Arizona State 62-27 on the road. However, since that game, the Bruins are just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS. That one win was last week vs. Arizona in a game they could have lost ATS. This week they travel to Washington to take on the Huskies, another underachieving team. Washington struggled early this season under new head coach, Chris Peterson. However, they have played much better as of late. Peterson is a very good coach, and you can see his influence on this team as the season has progressed, even though the record doesn’t show it. UCLA really struggled in their last two road games: 36-34 win over Cal and a 40-37 double-overtime win over Colorado. This is a perfect spot for the Huskies. Washington will play their best game of the season vs. an overhyped UCLA team this Saturday night at home.
NEWSLETTER NHL Hockey Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take ‘Under’ 5.5 – Pittsburgh at Buffalo (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 8)
If you’ve been paying attention to the NHL at all this season, it’s fairly obvious that the worst team in the sport is the Buffalo Sabres. They had an awful season last year, and this year’s edition seems to be even worse. They are in the middle of a major rebuilding phase, and winning hockey games just isn’t going to be a part of that for a while. The only hope that Buffalo really has at this point is to slow the game down and limit the overall scoring chances. If they can possess the puck a little bit longer and avoid giving up any odd man situations, the Sabres can steal a game here and there with two solid goaltenders. They aren’t going to win game 5-4 with their personnel, but winning a game 2-1 is feasible. The Penguins have more firepower than just about anyone, so Buffalo will definitely benefit by slowing down the pace on Saturday. Buffalo lost against Pittsburgh two weeks ago by a 5-0 margin where they tried to employ that strategy. It wasn’t pretty, but that game stayed under the total. I think they can pull the trick once again and keep this game under as well.
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Jason Sharpe
Take #165 Virginia +19 over Florida State (6:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 8)
I have crushed the books for six of seven winning football weeks and went on a 6-1, +1870 college run last week. I am going to follow that up with a 6-Unit Game of the Month on Saturday that for $30 you can’t afford to miss. This is a classic sandwich game here for Florida State, who just played two very tough games the past two weeks and has a vastly improved Miami Florida on deck next Saturday. The Seminoles easily could have lost either one of their last two contests but managed to make some big plays late in both games to get the win. This isn’t anywhere near the same FSU team that we seen last seen as it just doesn’t have the same defense. The Virginia Cavaliers have some talent. This is year five under head coach Mike London, and he has some nice pieces in place. They’ve already upset Louisville this season and came within a score of beating UCLA and Duke in games that they outgained them yardage wise. London should have his troops focused for this one, especially after suffering their worst loss of the season last weekend. Also, many of these Cavaliers players haven’t faced off versus FSU in a couple years and would love nothing more than to end their perfect season. Everything sets up nicely here for the Cavaliers in this one, off a tough loss facing a team who most likely will be looking ahead to next weekend’s big in-state battle versus the Hurricanes. Take Virginia and the points.
RIVER CITY SHARPS
Being based in Louisville, KY, there is probably no team that we have a better pulse on than the Louisville Cardinals. There was plenty of disappointment last Thursday as the Cards effort came up short against Florida State. While they did lose the game, one real positive that came out of the game was their ability to move the ball and score against the Seminoles defense. While Louisville’s defense has been pretty solid all season, they didn’t quite hold up in the second half against the FSU onslaught. Now we find the Cards travelling to Boston for a matchup with the much improved Boston College Eagles. BC comes into this game on a high following their road victory at Virginia Tech, but we think this is a story of matchup problems for the Eagles. You see, the Eagles have virtually a non-existent passing game and count of QB Tyler Murphy to run out of several different looks. The problem is that even though Louisville will be missing Lorenzo Mauldin this week, the Cardinals have a really stout rushing defense and running against thi