by WINNERS_ONLY
Wednesday’s NHL Playoffs Betting Cheat Sheet
♦♦Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens (-150,5)
With respect to Devan Dubnyk, Carey Price and Andrew Hammond arguably were the two most discussed goaltenders in the NHL this season. A Vezina Trophy favorite and likely Hart Trophy candidate, Price looks to guide the Atlantic Division-champion Montreal Canadiens past the upstart Ottawa Senators when the teams open their Eastern Conference first-round series at the Bell Centre on Wednesday.
Price led the league with a franchise-best 44 wins while his goals-against average (1.96) and save percentage (.933) were second to none in the NHL. The 27-year-old Price was less than spectacular while splitting his two decisions versus Ottawa while the Senators emerged victorious in the two other meetings. Ottawa, which resided 14 points out of a playoff berth on Feb. 10, posted a 23-4-4 mark to secure the top wild-card position – and Hammond (20-1-2, 1.79 GAA, .941 save percentage) played an integral role in that surge. The first-year sensation won his first start with a 4-2 triumph over Montreal on Feb. 18 and became the first goaltender in the NHL’s modern era to earn at least one point in each of his first 12 career road starts, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
TRENDS:
*Over is 5-0-4 in Canadiens last 9 overall.
*Senators are 12-2 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.
*Home team is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.
♦♦New York Islanders at Washington Capitals (-145,5)
The Washington Capitals claimed home-ice advantage over the New York Islanders on the final day of the regular season, and that edge could prove pivotal as the Metropolitan Division rivals open their Eastern Conference first-round series at the Verizon Center on Wednesday. The home team won each of the four meetings this season, with Washington captain Alex Ovechkin scoring four goals against New York and 53 overall to become the sixth player in league history with at least six 50-goal campaigns.
Ovechkin also added an assist against the Islanders, who ventured into overtime before winning both of their home meetings with the Capitals. Captain John Tavares matched Ovechkin by recording five points (two goals, three assists) – including an overtime tally on Nov. 26 – and his career-high 86 points fell one shy of Dallas’ Jamie Benn for league lead in that department. Both goaltenders etched their names into their respective franchise’s record books, with Washington’s Braden Holtby (41-20-10, 2.22 goals-against average, .921 save percentage) matching Olaf Kolzig in wins and appearances (73) while tying Jim Carey’s single-season mark with nine shutouts. New York’s Jaroslav Halak (38-17-4, 2.43, .917) set the franchise record in wins and recorded 11 more than his previous career high, which was set with St. Louis in 2010-11.
TRENDS:
*Islanders are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Capitals are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
*Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
*Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.
♦♦Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators (-115,5)
The Chicago Blackhawks stumbled to the finish line during the regular season but will head into the playoffs on an upbeat note after learning that All-Star forward Patrick Kane will return to the lineup for Wednesday’s playoff opener at the Nashville Predators. Chicago scored only five goals during a season-ending four-game skid to finish in third place in the Central Division – two points behind the Predators, who enter the postseason riding a six-game losing streak.
Kane was tied for the league lead in scoring and was among the front-runners for MVP honors when he suffered a broken collarbone on Feb. 24 – an injury that was expected to sideline him for 12 weeks. “He was having an MVP-type of season,” Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville said. “Getting him back just makes you have so many more options. His versatility in all areas certainly enhances our team.” Nashville owned the league’s best record for much of the season and was running away with the Central until dropping 15 of its last 21, a stretch that featured a pair of six-game slides. The Predators have lost nine of 11 (2-6-3) at home in that span, including four in a row.
TRENDS:
*Blackhawks are 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
*Predators are 0-6 in their last 6 overall.
*Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
*Over is 5-1-3 in Predators last 9 overall
♦♦Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks (-150,5)
After closing out the regular season with a three-game winning streak that helped them secure second place in the Pacific Division, the Vancouver Canucks attempt to continue their successful ways when they host the Calgary Flames in the opener of their first-round playoff series Wednesday. Vancouver – which ranked second in the league on the penalty kill – wrapped up the campaign with a three-game homestand and made the most of it, defeating Los Angeles, Arizona and Edmonton by a combined 12-6 score.
The Flames finished strong to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2009, winning five of six contests before dropping a 5-1 decision at Winnipeg in the season finale. After falling to Vancouver in the 2014-15 opener, Calgary finished the season series 2-0-1 – coming up short in overtime before posting a pair of one-goal victories. The Canucks and Flames have met six times – all in the first round – in the postseason, with Calgary capturing four series. The Flames won the most recent matchup in 2004, emerging victorious in seven games and advancing all the way to the Stanley Cup final before losing to Tampa Bay.
TRENDS:
*Canucks are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Pacific.
*Flames are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Vancouver.
*Under is 6-0 in Flames last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
*Over is 4-1-2 in Canucks last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
2014-15 NHL
Ottawa won its last three games with Montreal; over is 6-1-1 in last series games. Senators won six of last seven games to make playoffs; five of those seven stayed under total. Sens won three of last four on road. Montreal won last three games, allowing seven goals; over is 4-0-2 in their last six games. Ottawa missed playoffs LY; since 2007, they’re 1-3 in the 1st round of playoffs. Canadiens are 2-3 in this round of playoffs the last six years.
Islanders are in playoffs for just second time in last eight years; last time they won a playoff series was 1990. New York lost six of last nine games, with four of last six going over total. Washington won five of last seven games with six of last eight going over. Caps weren’t in playoffs; they’re 3-2 in last five first round series. Home side won last four series games; Isles lost four of last five visits here.
Chicago won Stanley Cup in ’10/’13; they lost conference final LY. Blackhawks lost last four games in regular season, scoring five goals– under is 4-1-1 in their last six. Nashville missed playoffs last two years; in their franchise history, they’re 2-5 in first round series. Predators lost last six regular season games, allowing 25 goals. Chicago won three of last four games with Nashville; six of last eight series games stayed under total.
Calgary is in playoffs for first time in six years; they’ve lost last seven first round series- its last series win was in 1993. Flames won last two games with Vancouver 1-0/3-2 after losing previous eight series games; under is 3-1-1 in last five played here. Canucks won five of last seven games; they missed playoffs LY, haven’t won playoff series since ’10. Flames also won five of last seven games, with four of last five staying under.
2015 NHL playoffs.
NHL playoffs are Underway Wednesday
By Zach Cohen
2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Playoffs start Wednesday, April 15
The NHL playoffs are here, with the New York Rangers coming in as the favorite with 9-to-2 odds to win it all. The Chicago Blackhawks are once again the favorites to win the Western Conference with 7-to-1 odds, but there are two other conference foes right there with them with Anaheim at 8-to-1 and St. Louis at 15-to-2. The Winnipeg Jets are the biggest longshot at 30-to-1 to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup in mid-June.
Odds to Win 2014 Stanley Cup
Team Odds
New York Rangers 9-to-2
Chicago Blackhawks 7-to-1
St. Louis Blues 15-to-2
Anaheim Ducks 8-to-1
Minnesota Wild 17-to-2
Montreal Canadiens 9-to-1
Tampa Bay Lightning 12-to-1
Nashville Predators 14-to-1
Vancouver Canucks 16-to-1
Pittsburgh Penguins 20-to-1
Washington Capitals 20-to-1
Calgary Flames 25-to-1
Detroit Red Wings 25-to-1
New York Islanders 25-to-1
Ottawa Senators 25-to-1
Winnipeg Jets 30-to-1
Teams to Watch
New York Rangers (9/2) – It’s never exciting to pick chalk, but this team has been absolutely dominant in the second half of the season. The Rangers are going to be fueled by last season’s defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings and will look to hoist the trophy come June. LW Rick Nash (42 G, 27 A) is a different player now than he was a year ago, playing with more confidence than he did at any point last season. If he gets it going then few can get in the way of the Rangers. The addition of D Keith Yandle (6 G, 46 A) also gives this team a nearly flawless blueline. The Rangers will, however, need a healthy D Kevin Klein (9 G, 17 A) in order to win it all this season and he has not played since Mar. 11.
Chicago Blackhawks (7/1) – The Blackhawks finished the season with just the fourth most points in the Western Conference, but the team was also without RW Patrick Kane (27 G, 37 A) for a big chunk of the season. Kane, who was dealing with an upper body injury at the end of the year, was cleared for contact on Monday and should return at some point in the first round for this team. Even without their best player, the Blackhawks still finished the season with a +40 goal differential. This team is explosive offensively and G Corey Crawford (32-20-5, 2.27 GAA, 92.4 SV%) has plenty of big game experience. The Blackhawks are an excellent pick to come out of the west and win the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning (12/1) – The Lightning are a very interesting pick to win the Stanley Cup this season, as this team is extremely well rounded. Tampa Bay finished the season with more goals than any other team in the league, putting in 262 on the year. C Steven Stamkos (43 G, 25 A) is one of the league’s most dominant players when he gets it going and the Lightning also have guys like C Tyler Johnson (29 G, 43 A), RW Ryan Callahan (24 G, 30 A) and C Brian Boyle (15 G, 9 A) who bring a bit of everything to this lineup. Tampa Bay has the perfect mix of scoring and toughness and will be a tough out for many in the postseason. The Lightning also went 32-8-1 at home this season, so it will not be easy for their opponents to win when they’re not on their home ice.
Washington Capitals (20/1) – The Capitals are one last team that would be a good pick to win the Stanley Cup out of the Eastern Conference. The Caps are getting very favorable odds and were one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season. From the start of December until the end of the season, Washington went 35-18-7. LW Alex Ovechkin (53 G, 28 A) is still the toughest player in the entire league to stop on offense and he will make it so that opposing teams are always keeping an eye on him. The Capitals also scored on 25.3% of their power-play opportunities this season, and that type of efficiency will make them very tough to beat in the postseason.
Calgary Flames (25/1) – The Flames won five of their past seven games heading into the postseason and that was ultimately the reason they were able to take the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. This team is not considered threatening by many, but it can really light it up offensively. The Flames are averaging 2.9 goals per game (6th in NHL) and scoring on 18.8% of their power-play opportunities (13th in NHL). LW Jiri Hudler (31 G, 45 A), LW Johnny Gaudreau (24 G, 40 A) and C Sean Monahan (31 G, 31 A) are all very talented offensive players and if they can get hot, the Flames could make an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals. This team is a longshot to win, but is worth a small play at 25-to-1 based on talent alone.
NHL Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead, Part I
by Alan Matthews
Now that we got that pesky regular season out of the way, hockey season really begins this week with arguably the greatest playoffs in American (and Canadian) sports and certainly for the best trophy there is: the Stanley Cup. I am going to break down my previews into two parts. Today I look at the four series that start Wednesday. The New York Rangers, who won the Presidents’ Trophy, open the playoffs as 5/1 Stanley Cup favorites followed by Chicago and St. Louis at 8/1. A Rangers-Blackhawks Finals matchup is the 14/1 favorite.
Islanders vs. Capitals
Game 1 is Wednesday at 7 p.m. on the USA Network. I’m a bit surprised that Washington is the -150 series favorite at Sportsbook.ag with the Isles at +120. Both clubs finished with 101 points, but the Capitals own the tiebreaker and thus have home-ice advantage. Really, the Islanders were the better team most of the season but the Caps were down the stretch, so I suppose that line makes some sense. Rather amazingly, these teams haven’t met in the playoffs since the 1993 Patrick Division semifinals. Washington’s Alex Ovechkin won yet another Rocket Richard Trophy by leading the NHL with 53 goals, while the Islanders’ John Tavares finished second to Dallas’ Jamie Benn for the most points in the league as Tavares had 86. Ovechkin has largely been a playoff failure in his career. The teams split four regular-season meetings, each going 2-0 at home. Ovechkin had four goals in those games and Tavares had five points. goto askthebookie) Three of the four games went at least to overtime. The big injury question here is to Islanders defenseman Travis Hamonic. He suffered a left knee injury in Pittsburgh on Friday. Hamonic (five goals, 28 assists) usually was deployed against Ovechkin’s line at even strength when the teams played. Two of Hamonic’s goals this season came against the Caps. Here’s one interesting stat to keep in mind for the Islanders: They have surrendered a goal in the final 10 seconds of a period in three consecutive games heading into the postseason.
Senators vs. Canadiens
Game 1 is Wednesday at 7 p.m. on the NHL Network. Is this the year a team from north of the border finally brings home the Cup? Canada has five teams in the playoffs and Montreal, the Atlantic Division champion and No. 2 overall seed in the East, is clearly the best of them. The Habs are 10/1 to win the Cup and -170 to win this series with Ottawa at +140. No team enters the playoffs playing better than Ottawa. Behind rookie goalie Andrew Hammond, aka the “Hamburglar,” the Senators were 21-3-3 in their final 27 games. They also won three of four this year against Montreal. Hammond’s first career start was a 4-2 win over the Canadiens on Feb. 18. Two years ago, the Canadiens were division winners but were upset by the Senators in the opening round. Still, I don’t know how you can pick against Carey Price, who will be your Vezina Trophy winner. While Caps-Isles has two of the best forwards in the game, this matches Norris Trophy candidates in Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban.
Blackhawks vs. Predators
Game 1 is Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. on the NBC Sports Network. The Hawks won’t admit this, but I assure you they wanted this matchup in the first round over playing St. Louis. Why? The Predators went 6-12-3 in their final 21 games and closed the regular season on six-game losing streak. Despite not having the home-ice advantage, Chicago is the -155 series favorite with Nashville at +125. The Blackhawks and Predators met four times this season. The Blackhawks defeated the Predators 2-1 in overtime in Chicago on Oct. 18, 3-1 in Nashville on Dec. 6 and 5-4 in a shootout in Chicago on Dec. 29. The Predators defeated the Blackhawks 3-2 in Nashville on Oct. 23. The big story here is the likely availability of Chicago star forward Patrick Kane. When he fractured his collarbone on Feb. 24, it was thought he wouldn’t be back until the Western Conference Finals if Chicago got that far. It’s not a sure thing that he will play in Game 1, but it’s now likely he’s going at some point in this series. Kane was cleared to take full contact in practice Monday. Prior to the injury, Kane led the Blackhawks with 27 goals and 37 assists.
Flames vs. Canucks
Game 1 is Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET on the USA Network. Calgary was supposed to be lousy again this season and hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2009, so I’d call the Flames the biggest surprise of the 16 playoff teams. They are +125 underdogs in this series with the Canucks, who have the home-ice advantage, at -155. It’s the first postseason meeting between the Western Canadian rivals since 2004, the year the Flames lost to Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup Finals. That was also the last year Calgary won a playoff series. The clubs split four regular-season meetings. The big question here is which goalie the Canucks will start. Ryan Miller was the No. 1 but was lost to an injury on Feb. 22. He did, however, return for the regular-season finale. Backup Eddie Lack was very good in his place but has never made a playoff start. Presumably the Flames will go with veteran Jonas Hiller. He and Karri Ramo platooned for much of the regular season, but Ramo suffered a late-season lower-body injury.
Betting 101: How to Safely Bet the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs
By Jason Logan
The NHL playoffs, more so than any other sport’s postseason, are about as different from the regular season as you can get.
Teams that dominated during the regular schedule suddenly find themselves on the brink of elimination, and clubs that squeaked into the playoff picture can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the Stanley Cup.
In order to help hockey bettors navigate the upside-down world of postseason puck, we asked some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers to share their best tips, tactics, and trends when it comes to successfully wagering on the NHL’s second season.
Hot goaltenders
Like pitching in baseball, goaltending can singlehandedly win a playoff series. Year after year, hockey bettors witness incredible performances between the pipes and make a small mint riding these red-hot keepers.
On the other side of the coin, not having a proven No. 1 goalie can quickly put a wrap on the season – no matter how many goals a team can score. Expert Jesse Schule points to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have been ushered out of the playoffs the past three years thanks to shaky play in the crease.
“When I’m looking to narrow down the field to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, I always look at the goaltenders first,” agrees Sean Murphy. “Which ones are capable of carrying a team on their shoulders if need be? Who can steal a game, or even a series?”
The Ottawa Senators are hoping rookie sensation Andrew Hammond can step up to the challenge after a breakout campaign. Hammond finished with a 20-1-2 record and a 1.79 GAA, and finished April with a 5-0-1 record and 1.60 GAA heading into the playoffs.
Depth and toughness
Ever watch a hockey player get interviewed about his team’s deep postseason run? More often than not, the guy’s face looks like someone dropped a plate of spaghetti on the floor and then tried to sew it back together.
The NHL playoffs are a grueling challenge of teams’ overall talent and toughness. When a series goes six or seven games, the true depth of a roster is drawn to the surface.
Injuries can spoil an NHL bet faster than a Zdeno Chara slapshot and knowing which teams are healthy, getting healthy, and beat up entering the playoffs is a good way to gauge just where you should put your money.
“Some teams that were banged up earlier this season are healthy now and could perform better than expected, while the opposite could be true of teams suffering through multiple injuries at the moment,” says Doc’s Sports.
Teams that can get production from their third and fourth lines are the ones who survive, while clubs that rely on a few key players to carry the team often find themselves trading hockey sticks for golf clubs. Opponents draw up schemes to shadow and lock down these stars and force role players to beat them.
“It’s important to consider depth,” says Murphy. “Which teams can roll four lines and get steady production from their role players? Unlike other sports, the NHL playoffs aren’t all about the superstars. It’s the grinders that often decide which team is left standing in June.”
Physicality also plays a major role in the outcome of the playoffs, with every hit looked at as an investment. Finesse teams can get worn down over the course of a series while teams that like to lay the lumber excel in the furious pace of the postseason.
“Some teams might not be the fastest and most skilled, but instead they out-work, out-hit, and physically dominate their opponents,” says Schule.
Road Warriors
Another big difference between the NHL playoffs and other sports’ tournaments is the importance – or lack thereof – when it comes to home ice.
In basketball and football, having the crowd on your side is crucial to a championship run. However, in hockey, bettors get great value with road teams in the postseason. Hot home teams like Tampa Bay or Nashville may be good fade bait while tough road clubs, like the New York Rangers, can hold added pop on the road.
“Other than getting the final line change, there is really not much of an edge for the home team,” says Steve Merril. “Obviously, the crowd will be supporting them. But unlike the NBA, it does not influence officials as much, as penalties are normally called evenly and on an alternating makeup basis. NHL playoffs is the one sport where I feel home teams are generally overvalued, especially since travel is not a factor and both teams in a best-of-seven series have the same travel schedule.”
Ben Burns believes each NHL postseason game is unique and doesn’t carry as much momentum from one contest to the next. Teams quickly make adjustments, line changes and roster moves based on the game before and can have a completely different feel when they face off next. A high-scoring Game 1 can produce a low-scoring Game 2 with teams tightening up on defense.
Special teams
Referees do tend to let a lot more slide in the postseason compared to regular season action, so it makes it even more important for teams to capitalize on those man-advantages when the whistle does blow.
“It is absolutely imperative to score on the power play, in order to discourage opponents from taking cheap shots at your best players,” says Schule.
Entering the postseason, the Washington Capitals boast the top power-play attack in the league with 60 goals with the man advantage and a 25.3 power-play percentage. At the bottom of the scale, the Anaheim Ducks boast the lowest power-play percentage in the playoffs at 15.7 percent.
As for killing off those penalties, the Minnesota Wild didn’t get burned much with a man in the box ranking second in the NHL with an 86.3 penalty-kill percentage. The Vancouver Canucks and Penguins followed them, killing off 85.7 and 84.8 percent of their penalties, respectively. The New York Islanders have the worst PK among playoff teams at 77.9 percent.
Series Prices on the move with Playoffs Approaching
Andrew Avery
NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs series prices have been on the move over the past 24 hours with several swings.
The biggest movers are the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were +205 yesterday, but presently sit +185 to defeat the New York Rangers at online shop Book Maker. The Rangers went from -245 to a current price of -220.
In the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames are seeing price movement as they went from +130 to currently +120 to eliminate the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks go from -150 to -140.
Odds on the Stanley Cup winner coming from Canada
Stephen Campbell
Canada is very well-represented in this year’s edition of the NHL Playoffs, as five teams from the Great White North will be participating in the postseason.
Do you think either Winnipeg, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary or Vancouver will be crowned Stanley Cup champion in June? Sports Interaction is offering a prop on just that, with the YES priced at +375 and the NO -613.
Four of the aforementioned clubs will be facing each other in the first round (Montreal vs. Ottawa, Calgary vs. Vancouver).
BEN BURNS
NHL PLAYOFFS Opening Night Triple-Header!
9* Washington Capitals ML
9* Montreal Canadiens ML
9* Vancouver Canucks ML
BRYAN POWER
3-Game Wednesday NHL ALL ACCESS!
Ottawa Senators+135
NY Islanders / Washington Caps – Over 5
Chicago Blackhawks+105
Americasbookie.com
NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, April 15 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
Wednesday has to be considered one of the worst days of the year. Why? Well, you have better paid your income taxes by the end of the day. And to make matters worse, it’s also the last day of the NBA’s regular season. I suppose from a glass half-full perspective that simply means more important basketball is right around the corner with the start of the playoffs this weekend. Some games Wednesday — only the Clippers and Suns don’t play — have some playoff relevance. Here’s a look. Hornets-Raptors and Pacers-Grizzlies will be shown on ESPN. A lot of TBAs because some teams might rest key guys.
♦Hornets at Raptors (-12.5, 199.5)
Toronto was in Boston on Tuesday. The Raptors were a half-game behind Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the East. If Toronto wins Tuesday and here then it will be the No. 3 and play Milwaukee in the first round. If the Raptors lose one of the two games and Chicago beats Charlotte then the Raptors are No. 4 and face Washington. So I’m not sure if Toronto will care in either game. Power forward Amir Johnson seems likely to sit both out as he has missed four straight. Charlotte has totally mailed it in, having lost five straight and has shut down most of its starting lineup.
Key trends: The Hornets have covered 10 of their past 12 meetings in Toronto. The “over/under” has gone over in four of the past five.
Early lean: Raptors and over.
♦Hawks at Bulls (TBA)
Atlanta somehow lost at home to the Knicks on Monday despite playing every starter but the injured Paul Millsap. I’d be stunned if any Hawks starters play here because it means less than nothing. What will the Bulls do? Should they rest many of their regulars ahead of the playoffs? Try to win and earn the No. 3 seed for an easier first-round matchup with Milwaukee? Try to lose and get the No. 4? Yes, that’s a harder first-round series with Washington but then no Cleveland until the East Finals. I do expect at least Joakim Noah to sit out after doing so in Monday’s rout of Brooklyn. The Hawks go for the series sweep here.
Key trends: Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 7-1 in the past eight in Chicago.
Early lean: I expect more Bulls of note to play than Hawks, so they are the pick.
♦Trail Blazers at Mavericks (TBA)
Expect most key Dallas guys to sit out as the Mavericks are locked into the No. 7. Portland has nothing to play for as it’s locked into the No. 4 as a division champion. One guy who for sure won’t play is starting small forward Nicolas Batum as he is having an MRI on his injured right knee on Tuesday. He hurt it Monday. Guard C.J. McCollum hurt his ankle on Monday but doesn’t need an MRI. Don’t expect to see him, either. Or LaMarcus Aldridge, who missed Monday’s loss to the Thunder with a foot injury.
Key trends: The home team has covered the past four meetings. The over is 6-1 in the past seven in Dallas.
Early lean: Wait and see who plays, but I suppose lean the home side.
♦Jazz at Rockets (TBA)
Houston still has something to play for. It is currently the No. 5 seed but has the same record as No. 2 San Antonio and No. 3 L.A. Clippers. Memphis is just a game back at No. 6. Plus I’m fascinated to see what James Harden might do. He’s currently at 27.5 points per game, with Russell Westbrook leading the NBA at 28.0. Harden probably would need at least 69 points to catch Westbrook. In fact, he would need exactly that number if Westbrook doesn’t play Wednesday, but he’s going to play. Utah looks to continue its post-All-Star break momentum into next season. Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Trey Burke have all missed the past two games. I don’t see why any would play here but thus the TBA.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 in Houston.
Early lean: Houston should win easily.
♦Celtics at Bucks (-2, 200.5)
Boston hosted Toronto on Tuesday. The Celtics clinched a playoff spot with Brooklyn’s loss on Monday, so this game could simply determine whether Boston is the No. 7 or No. 8 seed depending on what it does Tuesday and Wednesday also what the Nets and Pacers do to finish the season. Milwaukee is locked into the No. 6 so could sit several players. The Bucks unveiled a new logo Monday night that the team will start using after this season. Check it out, and it’s an improvement over the current model.
Key trends: The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 7-0 in the past seven in Milwaukee.
Early lean: Wait and see what Boston does Tuesday. If the No. 7 is locked then starters should sit here.
♦Thunder at Timberwolves (TBA)
I would never recommend anyone bet their house on a game — but you probably would be safe taking OKC on the moneyline at least here. The Thunder must win and have the Pelicans lose to get the No. 8 seed (both games start at same time). Even better, half the Wolves roster is out injured (thus the TBA), and they will get the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery with a loss. They are ahead of the Knicks by one game for the NBA’s worst record and have lost 11 straight. If I’m Flip Saunders, I sign five guys from the Mall of America in Minneapolis to play this game
Key trends: The Wolves are 1-6 ATS in their past seven at home. The over is 9-1 in OKC’s past 10 after an ATS win.
Early lean: Thus should be a massive blowout.
♦Spurs at Pelicans (TBA)
If New Orleans wins this game or Oklahoma City loses in Minnesota, which isn’t going to happen, then the Pelicans are in. The problem for them is that San Antonio is playing its best basketball of the season, winning 11 straight, and needs a win to clinch the No. 2 seed in the West and avoid Golden State until the West Finals — plus lock up a nice first-round matchup against Dallas. Spurs center Tiago Splitter has been ruled out, but I presume Coach Gregg Popovich plays everyone else.
Key trends: The Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their past eight at New Orleans. The over is 6-1 in New Orleans’ past seven against the West.
Early lean: If the Spurs care, they will knock New Orleans out.
♦Magic at Nets (-9.5, 203.5)
Brooklyn totally laid an egg Monday night against the Bulls and lost control of its destiny to make the playoffs. The Nets are a half-game behind Indiana but hold the tiebreaker. So Brooklyn needs a win and at least one Pacers loss or two Indiana defeats as it played Tuesday night as well. The worst part is that if the Nets miss the playoffs and somehow win the draft lottery, the Hawks get to switch first-round picks from the Joe Johnson deal a few years ago. The Nets’ pick isn’t protected, so obviously Atlanta will switch regardless but think of how painful it would be if that pick was No. 1 overall. Orlando has dropped three straight. Could Billy Donovan be the team’s head coach the next time it takes the floor for a regular-season game? It’s possible.
Key trends: Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five in Brooklyn.
Early lean: Take the desperate Nets.
♦Wizards at Cavaliers (TBA)
Washington was at Indiana on Tuesday and planned to play all of its starters even though the Wizards are locked into the No. 5 seed. I don’t expect that to be the case here, and I very much expect the Cavs, who are locked in as the No. 2 seed, to rest LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love as they did in Sunday’s blowout loss to Boston.
Key trends: Washington is 1-7 ATS in its past eight in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 5-0 in Cleveland’s past five on Wednesday.
Early lean: Just steer clear because this could be scrub city.
♦Pistons at Knicks (+6.5, 196.5)
New York has to lose and hope Minnesota upsets the Thunder on Wednesday to get the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery. The Knicks picked the absolute worst time to go on a two-game winning streak. That four-point win in Atlanta on Monday was a surprise because the Hawks actually tried a bit. This should be the final game as a member of the Pistons for forward Greg Monroe, who will become an unrestricted free agent. You already hear that he might sign a max deal with the Knicks.
Key trends: The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS in their past nine after a loss of more than 10 points.
Early lean: Knicks and over.
♦Heat at 76ers (TBA)
Miami kept very slim playoff hopes alive with Monday’s 100-93 win over the Magic. The Heat need a win here and losses by the Pacers in both their remaining games and by the Nets on Wednesday to get in. Frankly it benefits the Heat to lose. They aren’t making any waves in the playoffs, and if they get a draft pick in the Top 10 then the Heat keep it. If the Heat fall to 11th in the draft order then the Philadelphia 76ers get the Heat’s pick. Right now the Heat would pick 10th if not moving up in the lottery. So really it benefits Philly to lose.
Key trends: The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games. The under is 11-2 in Philly’s past 13 vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Wait and see what Indiana does Tuesday. If Pacers win, most key Heat players will sit here.
♦Pacers at Grizzlies (TBA)
Indiana hosted Washington on Tuesday. The Pacers controlled their destiny for the playoffs. Win that game and this one and they are in. Lose both and out. I guarantee you the Hawks or Cavaliers don’t want to see this team in the first round now that Paul George is back. If Memphis loses this it will stay at No. 6 in the West. It has a chance to move to No. 5 with a win and a Houston loss. Still, the Grizzlies might give injured guys like Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph the night off instead.
Key trends: Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its past five on the road. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Another wait-and-see.
♦Nuggets at Warriors (-11, 215)
No reason at all for Golden State to play anyone of note. Expect Denver to look very different next season. It’s possible that interim head coach Melvin Hunt gets the full-time job, but I think guys like Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried are likely to be traded. It’s time to reboot this franchise and build around rookie center Jusuf Nurkic and through the draft.
Key trends: Denver is 2-5 ATS in the past seven at Golden State. The over is 8-2 in the Warriors’ past 10 at home.
Early lean: Like the over because neither side will care about playing defense.
♦Kings at Lakers (-3.5, 205)
I’d like to say something interesting about this game but have nothing. Both clubs are locked into their respective lottery positions (Lakers fourth-worst record, Kings sixth worst). These teams played Monday night in Sacramento, a 102-92 Kings win. I actually think they have a chance to compete for the playoffs next season with a full season under Coach George Karl and one solid offseason addition (Lawson maybe?). The Lakers do need a win here to avoid the franchise record for worst winning percentage. The 1957-58 Minneapolis Lakers went 19-53 and had a .264 winning percentage. The current Lakers are 21-60 (.259).
Key trends: The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their past five at L.A. The over is 12-5 in the Kings’ past 17 on the road.
Early lean: DeMarcus Cousins is out, so go with L.A.
Game of the Day: Spurs at Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans (OFF, OFF)
The New Orleans Pelicans are facing a must-win in the final game of the regular season as they attempt to hold off the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. The Pelicans won’t get much sympathy on Wednesday from the visiting San Antonio Spurs, who are fighting for the No. 2 spot.
New Orleans is tied with the Thunder but owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning the Pelicans get the spot opposite top-seeded Golden State in the first round if both win on Wednesday. Anthony Davis helped ensure New Orleans would control its own destiny by putting up 24 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks in a 100-88 win at Minnesota on Monday. “We know that we’ve got the upper hand,” Davis told reporters. “We know if we tie we are in (the playoffs) so we just need to go out there and play. The pressure is really on (the Thunder).” Just going out and playing might not be enough against the Spurs, who are coming in with an 11-game winning streak.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), FSN New Orleans
INJURY REPORT: Spurs – F Matt Bonner (Ques-Calf), C Tiago Splitter (Out-Calf) Pelicans – G Jrue Holiday (Prob-Leg)
POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-11.2) + Pelicans (-6) + Homecourt (-3) = Pelicans +2.2
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “The Pelicans got what they needed on Monday, outlasting the lowly T-Wolves in a virtual must-win. Things get a little tougher on Wednesday…maybe. The Spurs are battling for playoff positioning, and who would have thought a couple of months ago they would work their way all the way up the ladder for a shot at the two-seed. The question is: how concerned are they about seeding? It will be imperative to check who’s in and who’s out before making any wagering decisions on Wednesday. Note that New Orleans has held its own in this series this season, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.” Sean Murphy
ABOUT THE SPURS (55-26 SU, 41-38-2 ATS 38-43 O/U): San Antonio was battling for the No. 7 seed at the end of February but has since won 21 of 24 to reestablish itself as a title contender. The Spurs are battling the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies for the second-best record in the West and can lock up homecourt advantage in the first round with a win on Wednesday. San Antonio is riding 38-year-old Tim Duncan of late, and the future Hall of Famer has responded with 51 points on 19-of-26 shooting, 20 rebounds and five blocks combined in the last two games.
ABOUT THE PELICANS (44-37 SU, 44-37 ATS, 41-40 O/U): New Orleans has won seven of its last 10 games to put itself in this position, but those three losses have all come against West teams above it in the standings. Those three all came on the road, however, and the Pelicans have taken four straight in their own building. “We’re learning how to win big games and we have a chance to do something that this group hasn’t done before, and that’s play in the playoffs,” guard Quincy Pondexter told reporters. “It’s (Davis’) first time and a couple other guys’ first time, so they just need to embrace the moment, have fun with it and hopefully we make it.”
TRENDS:
*Home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
*Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
*Under is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 overall.
*Over is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
CONSENSUS: N/A
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, April 15, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
The Kansas City Royals were supposed to take a big step back this season after losing James Shields and a few other key players from last season’s American League champions. I still think they will, but the Royals entered Tuesday as the only unbeaten in MLB. However, the team has now lost starting outfielder Alex Rios to a fractured left hand. His official timetable isn’t known, but clearly that’s going to be a while. Rios was hitting .321 with a homer and eight RBIs after signing a one-year deal with the Royals this past winter to replace the departed Nori Aoki. The Royals will likely cover right field by moving Lorenzo Cain to right and starting Jarrod Dyson, who has just one plate appearance this season entering Tuesday, in center. By the way, Wednesday is Jackie Robinson Day, so all MLB players will wear his retired No. 42.
♦Marlins at Braves (-105, 7.5)
It’s a 12:10 p.m. getaway day start in this one, so some starters are on sit-down alert. The Marlins have been the most disappointing team in the National League (Giancarlo Stanton isn’t hitting at all) thus far and the Braves the biggest surprise. I doubt either lasts. Veteran right-hander Dan Haren starts for Miami. He pitched well in his Marlins debut, allowing the Rays just a run and four hits over six innings. goto askthebookie – Last year while with the Dodgers, Haren made one start against the Braves and beat them, allowing two runs in six innings. Kelly Johnson is 6-for-14 with four doubles and two RBIs off him. Lefty Eric Stults starts for the Braves. He was decent in his Atlanta debut, allowing three runs and seven hits in five innings. Stanton is 2-for-7 career off him with a homer and two RBIs. Martin Prado hits .385 off him with a homer and six knocked in.
Key trends: The Marlins are 1-7 in their past eight against a lefty. Atlanta is 6-0 in its past six on Wednesday. The “over/under” has gone under in Miami’s past four on the road against lefties.
Early lean: Marlins and under.
♦Yankees at Orioles (-138, 8.5)
New York is hoping to have back outfielder Brett Gardner for this game. He was hit by a pitch in the first inning Monday in Baltimore but stayed in until the seventh inning when Stephen Drew pinch-hit for him and hit a go-ahead grand slam — the Yankees’ first pinch-hit grand slam since Jorge Posada in 2001. X-rays were negative on Gardner’s wrist, but he wasn’t expected to play Tuesday. Manager Joe Girardi will give Alex Rodriguez this game off for rest if he didn’t on Tuesday. The Bombers start Nathan Eovaldi. He hit triple digits on the gun in his Yankee debut but took the loss vs. Boston, allowing three runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings. Only a couple of Orioles have ever faced him. Everth Cabrera is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts. It’s Bud Norris for the Orioles. The Blue Jays pummeled him in his season debut for eight runs and seven hits in 3.0 innings. Last year he was 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA in four starts vs. New York. Chase Headley hits .412 off him with two homers in 17 at-bats. Drew is 7-for-19 with a homer and four RBIs.
Key trends: New York is 5-1 in its past six Wednesday games. Baltimore is 4-0 in Norris’ past four in Game 3 of a series. The over is 10-3 in Norris’ past 13 overall.
Early lean: Orioles and over.
♦Royals at Twins (+113, 8)
Could Kansas City be going for 8-0 in this one? Edinson Volquez gets the start for the Royals, and he was terrific in his first start of the season. The former Pirate held the White Sox to just one run and four hits over eight innings in a 4-1 victory. I still expect him to get lit up by American League hitters this season. Volquez has faced the Twins just once in his career, and that was way back in 2007. Joe Mauer homered in that game, but that was back when Joe Mauer hit homers. It’s Kyle Gibson for the Twins. He was destroyed in his season debut, allowing six runs and eight hits, walking five, in 3.2 innings at Detroit. He didn’t strike out anyone. Gibson was 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in two starts against the Royals last season. Mike Moustakas has the most success off him with two doubles in seven at-bats.
Key trends: The Twins are 2-7 in Gibson’s past nine starts. They are 1-8 in his past nine vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in his past seven at home.
Early lean: Royals and under.
♦Phillies at Mets (-165, 7)
New York is the biggest favorite on the board. Left-hander Jon Niese takes the bump for the Mets. He took a no-decision in his debut in Atlanta, allowing three runs (one earned) and seven hits over 5.0 innings. Last year he was 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in four starts against the Phillies. Carlos Ruiz is 10-for-29 with a home and three RBIs off him. Chase Utley is just 3-for-28. goto askthebookie – I think it’s fair to say that Ryan Howard won’t play. He generally does sit against lefties and is 4-for-26 with 12 strikeouts career vs. Niese. Howard has been terrible this season, batting .167 with eight strikeouts and no walks in 24 at-bats entering Tuesday. goto askthebookie – I don’t know why the Phillies don’t just cut the guy. Jerome Williams starts for the Phillies. He took a no-decision in his debut, holding the Nationals to a run over six innings. No current Met has more than eight at-bats off him. Curtis Granderson has a three-run homer off him in eight at-bats.
Key trends: The Phillies are 7-2 in Williams’ past nine starts. The Mets are 13-3 in Niese’s past 16 vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 5-2 in Niese’s past seven at home vs. the Phillies.
Early lean: Mets and over.
♦Diamondbacks at Padres (-137, 6.5)
This is the only opening total below seven on the board. Chase Anderson gets the call for Arizona. The second-year player was so-so in his 2015 debut, allowing three runs and five hits over five innings against the Dodgers in a no-decision. Last year, he was 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA in three starts against the Padres and struggled on the road, going 2-4 with a 4.89 ERA. Matt Kemp has four hits, including a homer, and two RBIs off Anderson. Brandon Morrow starts for San Diego. He looked great in his Padres debut, holding the Giants to just four hits and no runs over seven innings while striking out seven in a no-decision. Morrow always has had good stuff but can’t stay healthy. Only a few Diamondbacks have faced him. Mark Trumbo is 1-for-3 with a strikeout.
Key trends: Arizona has lost four straight Wednesday games. The over has hit in eight of Anderson’s past 10 starts.
Early lean: Diamondbacks and over.