Forty-nine need-to-know Betting Notes for Super Bowl XLIX
By Joe Fortenbaugh
With thousands of proposition bets available across the globe in addition to the point spread and total, the Super Bowl is a betting enthusiasts’ euphoric dream.
The smorgasbord of wagering dishes has become so expansive in recent years that a respectable amount of research can result in a significant financial windfall for sharp and square bettors alike.
The good news? We’re here to take some of that research off of your plate so you can spend more time focusing on how many buffalo wings it will take to feed your entire Super Bowl party.
1. Since 2010, the Seahawks are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when playing an opponent that is averaging 27 or more points per game. The Patriots averaged 29.2 points per game during the regular season in 2014.
2. Only six of the 48 previous Super Bowls closed with a point spread of three or fewer points. No Super Bowl has ever closed at a pick’em.
3. Underdogs have won three straight Super Bowls, four of the last five and five of the last seven.
4. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS over their last four Super Bowl appearances.
5. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass, while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games played on grass.
6. Since 2000, Super Bowls with a total of 47 or higher have gone Under in six of eight instances.
7. The Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five Super Bowls and 11-5 in Seattle’s last 16 matchups against teams with a winning record.
8. When it comes to the coin toss, “Heads” had been the correct call five times in a row before “Tails” came through last February. However, note that streaks and trends when it comes to the coin toss are completely irrelevant. “Heads” and “Tails” each have a 50 percent chance of coming up Sunday.
9. The winner of the coin toss has gone on to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy 24 times in 48 Super Bowls (50 percent).
10. Since Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have elected to defer when winning the coin toss every possible time except once – a 2013 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals that took place in a driving rainstorm.
11. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has elected to defer 19 consecutive times when winning the opening coin toss.
12. The team that scores first in the Super Bowl is 32-16 (66.6 percent) SU.
13. Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka has produced touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoff attempts this season. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has produced touchbacks on 61 percent of his kickoffs in 2014 when the weather is 60 degrees or warmer.
14. Only 13 of 48 (27.08 percent) Super Bowls have featured a successful field goal of 45 or more yards. The total for longest field goal on Sunday is 44.5 yards, with the Over at -130 and the Under at +110.
15. Over his seven-year career, Hauschka has converted 129 field goals, 24 of which (18.6 percent) have come from 45 or more yards. Over his nine-year career, Gostkowski has converted 248 field goals, 48 of which (19.35 percent) have come from 45 or more yards.
16. In 2014, New England ranked 12th in the NFL in first quarter points (78), first in second quarter points (183), seventh in third quarter points (101) and 11th in fourth quarter points (106). Additionally, the Patriots ranked second in the NFL in first half point differential (+95) and fifth in second half point differential (+60).
17. In 2014, Seattle ranked 16th in first quarter points (67), ninth in second quarter points (117), 13th in third quarter points (82) and fourth in fourth quarter points (122). Additionally, the Seahawks ranked 11th in first half point differential (+40) and first in second half point differential (+94).
18. Prop: The highest-scoring quarter of the Super Bowl will be: First quarter at 9/2, second quarter at 3/2, third quarter at 7/2, fourth quarter at 2/1.
19. 27 of the last 39 (69.2 percent) Super Bowls have featured more points scored during the second half of the game over the first half.
20. During the 2014 regular season, New England ranked second in the league in turnover differential (+12) while Seattle ranked fourth (+10). The Over/Under on total interceptions for Sunday is 1.5 (Over -140, Under +120) while the total fumbles is 1.5 (Over +165, Under -185).
21. New England ranked fifth in the NFL in end of half scoring (scores that come within the final two minutes of the half) this season while Seattle ranked 14th. “Will either team score in the final two minutes of the first half” is listed at Yes -250, No +210.
22. The Over/Under on rushing yards for Patriots running LeGarrette Blount is 61.5 (-110 both ways). In 76 career games, Blount has eclipsed 61.5 rushing yards 26 times (34.2 percent). In 25 career games with the Patriots, Blount has topped the 61.5-yard mark nine times (36 percent). Seattle surrendered an average of just 81.5 rushing yards per game in 2014, good for third-best in the NFL.
23. At Super Bowl media day, every single Seattle defender I spoke with reiterated the same point about New England’s offense: The Seahawks plan to shut down the Patriots’ rushing attack and force quarterback Tom Brady to beat them through the air.
24. All four franchises that defeated the Seahawks in 2014 recorded at least 27 rushing attempts and 100-plus rushing yards.
25. The Over/Under on passing touchdowns for Brady is currently listed at 2.5, with the Over posted at +160 and the Under at -200. Brady threw three or more touchdown passes in only six of 18 games this season (33.3 percent). The Seattle defense permitted just one quarterback (Philip Rivers, Week 2) to throw three or more touchdown passes against it in 18 contests this season (5.5 percent).
26. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has recorded a run of 15 or more yards in 25 of 55 career NFL starts (45.4 percent). The Over/Under on Wilson’s longest run on Sunday is currently listed at 14.5 yards (-110 both ways).
27. Wilson averaged 7.3 rushing attempts per game in 18 contests this season. The Over/Under on the Seattle quarterback’s rushing attempts for Sunday is 7.5.
28. Wilson averaged 115.3 passing yards during the first half of play in 2014 and 104.2 passing yards during the second half of play. The “Russell Wilson will have more gross passing yards in which half” prop is currently listed at first half +115, second half -135.
29. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski recorded 78 or more receiving yards in a game nine times in 17 outings this season (52.9 percent), but Seattle’s defense limited opposing tight ends to an average of just 38.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season in 2014 (fourth-best in NFL). The Over/Under on Gronk receiving yards in currently posted at 77.5 (-110 both ways).
30. PGA golfer Phil Mickelson is averaging a fourth-round score of 69.8 over his last five starts at the Waste Management Open. Mickelson’s fourth-round score on Sunday is currently listed at +6.5 vs. Gronkowski’s total receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
31. There has only been one instance in Super Bowl history (Dallas in 1979) in which a defending champion has been listed as an underdog.
32. Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell amassed 51 or more receiving yards in 11 of 18 outings this season (61.1 percent). However, LaFell’s best numbers came when he lined up outside of the hash marks, which plays directly into the strength of the Seattle defense.
33. Wilson produced a passer rating of 95.0 in 2014 (10th in NFL), but that number dropped to 88.05 when the Seattle quarterback faced an opposing blitz. However, New England blitzed opposing quarterbacks in passing situations just 108 times during the regular season, which checked in as the third-fewest in the league.
34. 143 penalties were called against the Seahawks in 2014 while 133 penalties were called against the Patriots. The “Most Penalty Yards” prop is currently listed at Seattle -140, New England +120.
35. In the only previous encounter between Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman and New England quarterback Tom Brady, Brady threw at Sherman 10 times, completing just three passes with a touchdown and an interception. “Will Richard Sherman record an interception” is currently listed at Yes +190 and No -230.
36. For the 11th time in the last 12 Super Bowls, the starting signal-caller representing the AFC is named either Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.
37. Since 2001, Brady leads the NFL in postseason game-winning drives with eight. Wilson ranks third over that same time span with three.
38. The Super Bowl-winning quarterback has been named the game’s Most Valuable Player in six of the last eight contests. Brady is currently listed at 8/5 to win the MVP award, with Wilson posted at 7/2.
39. During the 2014 regular season, the Patriots averaged 22.6 first downs made per game (fourth in NFL) while the Seahawks averaged 20.5 first downs made (14th in NFL). On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots permitted an average of 20.6 first downs made per game (tenth-most in NFL), while the Seahawks surrendered fewer first downs made than any other team in the business (17.3 per game). New England is currently posted at -1.5 over Seattle to record more first downs in Sunday’s Super Bowl (-110 both ways).
40. Teams that scored 40 or more points in their conference championship game have gone 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the Super Bowl.
41. The Patriots surrendered just six rushing touchdowns during the 2014 regular season (third fewest in NFL). The “Will Marshawn Lynch score a touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -150, No +130.
42. Golden State Warriors point guard Steph Curry is averaging 7.5 3-point attempts and 2.9 3-point conversions per game this year, with at least four 3-pointers made in 13 of 43 (30.2 percent) contests. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.0 field goal conversions per game this season, while Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka is averaging 1.77 field goal conversions per game in 2014. Curry 3-pointers made vs. the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night is +0.5 (-145) vs. total field goals made in Sunday’s Super Bowl.
43. Seattle punter Jon Ryan averaged 3.94 punts per game in 2014, with only five of 18 contests resulting in five or more punts. “Total punts by Jon Ryan” is currently listed at 4.5, with the Over posted at +120 and the Under listed at -140.
44. Seven or more Seattle players caught at least one pass in 14 of 18 games this season (77.7 percent). The “Total number of different Seahawks to have a pass reception” prop is currently listed at 7.0, with the Over posted at EVEN and the Under listed at -120.
45. The Seahawks have recorded a rushing touchdown in 27 of their last 37 games (72.9 percent). The Patriots surrendered a rushing touchdown in just seven of 18 games this season (38.8 percent), but permitted a rushing touchdown in only two of their last nine outings. The “Will Seattle record a rushing touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -210, No +180.
46. Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright recorded seven or more tackles in 10 of 18 games this season (55.5 percent). However, Wright should play an integral role in defending highly-targeted New England tight end Rob Gronkowski on Sunday. The Wright tackle prop is currently posted at 6.5 tackles (-110 both ways).
47. Seattle safety Kam Chancellor is currently listed at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl MVP award. In last year’s Super Bowl, Chancellor posted a monster stat line with nine tackles, one interception and two pass deflections in a 43-8 blowout win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
48. The Patriots and Seahawks combined to throw 16 interceptions and lose 11 fumbles during the 2014 regular season. A fumble is listed at +135 to be the first turnover of Sunday’s game, with an interception checking in at -155.
49. Brady has recorded a rushing attempt of four or more yards in just seven of his last 36 games (19.4 percent). The “Longest rush by Tom Brady” prop is currently listed at 3.5 yards, with the Over posted at +140 and the Under listed at -160.
Today’s NFL Picks
New England vs. Seattle
The Patriots head to Super Bowl XLIX to face a Seahawks team that is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 4.
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1).
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1
Game 101-102: New England vs. Seattle (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.320; Seattle 146.101
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 1; 48
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1); Over
Patriots, Seahawks clash in Super Bowl XLIX
By: Zach Cohen
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-4) vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (14-4)
‘Super Bowl XLIX’
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: New England -1, Total: 48
The NFL season comes to a close on Sunday, Feb. 1 when the Patriots and Seahawks collide in a battle of No. 1 seeds in Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona.
Betting preview for Super Bowl XLIX:
New England hosted the Colts in the AFC Championship and won the game 45-7 as 7-point home favorites, but Seattle barely escaped Green Bay in a 28-22 overtime victory as 9-point home favorites in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks trailed 19-7 with less than three minutes remaining in the game and miraculously were able to score a touchdown and recover an onside kick to score another touchdown before eventually winning in overtime. The last time the Patriots played the Seahawks was on Oct. 14, 2012, when Seattle came back from a 13-point deficit with eight minutes remaining to win 24-23 as a 4-point home underdog. Both of these teams have turned to the ground game over the past few weeks, and they’ll both be trying to control the tempo in the biggest game of the year. Teams that win the time-of-possession battle in the Super Bowl are 35-13 SU (34-11-3 ATS) and teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-11 SU (34-11-3 ATS). The Patriots are 8-2 ATS off one or more straight overs this season, and 10-1 ATS versus excellent offenses (375+ YPG) in the past three seasons. New England is also 26-9 ATS after gaining 175+ rushing yards in its previous game since 1992. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 9-1 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in two consecutive games over the past three seasons. They are also 13-4 ATS off a home win over the past two years, and 14-3 ATS versus defenses allowing 235+ passing YPG in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll. The Patriots could be missing starting C Bryan Stork (knee), while S Jeron Johnson (elbow) and OT Justin Britt (knee) are both questionable for Seattle, but S Earl Thomas (shoulder) and CB Richard Sherman (elbow) are both considered probable.
The Patriots offense is clicking on all cylinders, averaging 40.0 PPG in the team’s two playoff games. QB Tom Brady (4,109 pass yards, 33 TD, 9 INT in regular season) has thrown for six touchdowns and just two interceptions in the postseason. New England needed to throw the ball more often against the Ravens than they did the Colts, but this team is capable of mixing it up. Against Indianapolis, the Patriots featured a run-heavy attack, and RB LeGarrette Blount (266 rush yards, 2 TD in regular season) rushed 30 times for 148 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots will likely feature him heavily against a Seahawks team that has surrendered at least 130 rushing yards in both playoff wins, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. If Blount can’t get it going though, the Patriots will have no issues throwing the ball towards TE Rob Gronkowski (82 rec, 1,124 yards, 12 TD in regular season) and WR Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 4 TD in regular season). Gronkowski has caught a touchdown pass in each of the past five games and Edelman has caught at least seven passes in each of the past six contests. Edelman is Brady’s security blanket and he is coming off of a game against Indianapolis in which he caught nine passes for 98 yards and also rushed for 12 on his only carry. The Patriots are also confusing teams with a number of unique formations and it should come as no surprise if any of New England’s linemen end up catching some passes in this one. Defensively, this team was dominant against the Colts last week, forcing three turnovers against Andrew Luck’s offense and holding them to just 209 total yards in the process. This secondary will now look to put some pressure on Russell Wilson, who threw four interceptions in the Seahawks’ victory over the Packers.
Seattle’s season appeared to be over against Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but they ended up pulling out one of the most amazing wins in postseason history. QB Russell Wilson (3,475 pass yards, 20 TD, 7 INT in regular season) threw four interceptions in the game, but he did rush for one touchdown and threw the game-winning TD pass in overtime to WR Jermaine Kearse (38 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD in regular season). Wilson will need to use both his legs and his arm to move the ball against this Patriots defense. Their secondary is outstanding in one-on-one coverage, but if Wilson can extend plays with his legs then he should be able to give his receivers a chance to get open. WR Doug Baldwin (66 rec, 825 yards, 3 TD in regular season) is Wilson’s go-to-guy in the passing game. He caught six passes for 106 yards in the victory over the Packers, but should see plenty of time lined up against CB Darrelle Revis (2 INT in regular season) in this one. Revis was able to pick off Andrew Luck in the Patriots’ AFC Championship victory, and Wilson will avoid throwing at the stud corner when he can. With New England being an excellent team when defending the pass, Seattle will rely even more on RB Marshawn Lynch (1,306 rush yards, 13 TD in regular season) in this game. Lynch rushed for 157 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Packers. He’ll be featured just as much against a Patriots defense that had allowed more than 100 rushing yards in three straight games before blowing out the Colts. Defensively, the Seattle secondary is extremely banged up, but this is a very tough group, and its size and speed should make things difficult on Tom Brady in this game. The Seahawks run defense will need to work on some things in the next two weeks, as they’ve been shredded by opposing backs throughout the course of the postseason and can’t afford to allow LeGarrette Blount to get things going.
2014 NFL
Super Bowl
I think this will be a high-scoring Super Bowl. Three of last four Super Bowls went over the total, which isn’t relevant but its true. Game is indoors so weather won’t be a factor. Think Seattle’s DBs are banged-up, so Brady will attack them early and find out if they are indeed healthy. Belichick will take Lynch’s run game away, forcing Wilson to put it in the air and see if he can do better than he did against Green Bay.
Belichick/Brady are in sixth Super Bowl, with first five all decided by 4 or less points. Carroll won his first Super Bowl 43-8 LY; he was 28-23 as Patriots’ coach, but was fired and replaced by Belichick despite making playoffs twice and going 8-8 the third year. Coaches in their second Super Bowl are 14-8.
NFC won four of last five Super Bowls; its been ten years since Patriots won their last one, but who on Seattle can cover Gronkowski? Seahawks play in this dome every year when they visit the Cardinals- that has to be a little bit of an advantage.
Brady is the better QB; think the coaches are even. Carroll’s greatness is underrated, as he and Dick Vermeil are only coaches to win Super Bowl and a Rose Bowl. Willson better play better than he did two weeks ago.
Since 1991, NFC is 4-0 vs AFC in Super Bowls with two #1 seeds. Seattle, 30-27.
NFL’s biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLIX
By Jason Logan
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are three of the biggest betting mismatches for Super Bowl XLIX:
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (-1, 47.5)
Seahawks’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ quick strikes
If the Super Bowl were the fabled race between the Tortoise and the Hare, Seattle would be cast in the role of the slow-and-steady Tortoise. The Seahawks know a football game is a marathon – not a sprint – and have been methodical in their approach on offense. However, when you’re playing a team as explosive offensively as the Patriots, a slow start can quickly put you behind on the scoreboard and alter even the best-laid game plans.
Seattle has managed just seven points in the first quarter over its last three games – a lone first-quarter touchdown and extra point against Carolina in the Divisional Round. That’s nothing new for this team, which averaged only 4.1 points per first quarter on the season.
The biggest culprit when it comes to the Seahawks dragging their cleats out of the gate is quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been half-asleep in the opening frame this year, with an 82.3 QB rating, just two touchdowns, and picking up only 6.67 yards per completion on a 59.6 completion percentage. He’s also been sacked 10 times in the first quarter – 24 percent of his 42 total sacks taken on the year have happened in the first 15 minutes.
The Patriots showed just how quick they can pile on the points against the Colts in the AFC Championship, striking for two scores in the opening frame – deflated ball or not – which put Indianapolis on its heels and set the tone for a blowout victory. New England was eighth in the NFL in average first-quarter points (5.5) and heats up faster than Rob Gronkowski erotica, topping the AFC with an average of 16.2 points in the first half.
This is a veteran team that knows how to put its foot on opponent’s throats. If Seattle does fall behind early, the Seahawks may have to put the game solely on Wilson’s shoulders – not exactly where they would like it to rest with Wilson throwing four INTs in the NFC title game.
Patriots’ problems with pass-catching RBs vs. Seahawks’ dynamic RBs
We know the Seahawks aren’t afraid to dig deep into the playbook on the biggest stages and have shown some creativity on offense in the past. Seattle used Percy Harvin as anything but a wide receiver in Super Bowl XLVIII and drew up some trickery for WR Jermaine Kearse to hit QB Russell Wilson on a 17-yard pass in the Super Bowl matchup with the Broncos this September.
Don’t be surprised if running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin find their way to slot against the Patriots this Sunday. Lynch, for all his power-rushing prowess, proved he could play with finesse, reeling in 37 passes for 367 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and four touchdowns – ranked fourth among RB in receiving scores. Turbin is also a massive X-factor in this game. He only caught the ball 16 times for 186 yards – 11.6 yards per catch – and scored twice through the air this season.
New England has had a tough time containing pass catching running backs all season. The Patriots were hit for 678 yards receiving from running backs – 7.8 yards per catch and run – and gave up six passing touchdowns to RBs-turned-WRs, which ranks third most in the entire NFL. New England ranked 19th in YAC (yards after the catch) allowed, with 123.5 per game. Seattle ranked second in average yards after the catch, with 6.84 YAC per game.
The Patriots allowed Ravens RB Justin Forsett to score off a catch in the Divisional Round, Green Bay RBs James Starks and Eddie Lacy to combine for 51 yards on four catches in Week 13, Lions RB Theo Riddick to grab three balls for 40 yards in Week 12, Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, Chicago RB Matt Forte posted 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.
Patriots and Seahawks’ penalty problems vs. Super Bowl total
No two teams in the NFL have forced more flags to fly than the Seahawks and Patriots this season. Between the two Super Bowl contenders, refs have blown the whistle 277 times for a combined total of 2,292 free yards just handed over to opponents.
The worst offense for New England has been when defending the pass. The Patriots have been flagged for defensive pass interference 11 times in their 18 games (178 yards lost) and led the NFL in defensive holding with 16 infractions equaling 79 yards against. Sprinkle in four penalties for illegal contact – 20 more yards – and the Pats are gift wrapping massive gains for opposing passers.
For Seattle, it’s been a proverbial salad bar of flags and infractions but most of these are coming in the trenches. The Seahawks were whistled for 33 times for false starts, coughing up 160 yards. They handed over 189 yards to opponents on 20 offensive holding calls and 55 yards on 11 defensive holding penalties, as well as 63 yards on 13 defensive offside penalties.
The head referee for the Big Game is nine-year NFL veteran Bill Vinovich, who isn’t a trigger happy official, with his 2014 games averaging 12.63 penalties for 107.56 total yards (NFL average: 13.21 / 110.70). He’s been that way for his career as well, averaging 12.19 flags for 101.85 yards (NFL average in that span: 12.82 / 106.61).
Total bettors can look at these numbers two ways: 1. Both teams get penalized a lot, extra yards and the clock stops – great for Over bettors. 2. NFL doesn’t want its showcase game bogged down with stoppages and having Vinovich letting some things go could help the defense – leaning to the Under.
Seattle went 2-3 O/U in the five games in which Vinovich was the referee since 2012, including Week 3 and 14 this season. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 34 yards in Week 3’s win over Denver but were rung up a season-high 14 times for 105 yards against in Week 14’s win at San Francisco. The Patriots were 2-0 O/U in games in which he was the ref this season, including the Divisional win over the Ravens that saw seven calls for 60 yards against New England. The other game with Vinovich holding the whistle, the Patriots were called for five penalties for 51 yards in a win over Miami in Week 15.
In the games in which New England was flagged for nine or more penalties this season, the Patriots finished 5-2 Over/Under. For the Seahawks, their six games with nine or more flags thrown resulted in a 4-2 Over/Under count.
Super Bowl XLIX Prop Pick of the Day
The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor’s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 1.
Matt Fargo: Steven Hauschka Total Points Over 7.5 (-130)
This season, Hauschka has tallied eight or more points 11 times but the fact that he has surpassed this total just once in his last six games is keeping the number down. He has gotten a bad rap for his 0-for-3 field goal performance in Arizona in December but has gone 31-for-34 in his field goal attempts in all other games. The Patriots defense has been exceptional and I see the Seahawks settling for a fair number of field goals when getting close to or inside the red zone.
Will Rogers: Marshawn Lynch Over 82.5 rushing yards (-160)
Seattle’s workhorse running back was in “Beast Mode” against the Packers, running for 157 yards and a touchdown. He’s facing a tougher New England defense here in the Super Bowl, but I expect Seattle to really lean heavily on it’s run game after quarterback Russell Wilson threw four picks against the Packers.
Sean Murphy: Longest field goal made – Over 44.5 yards.
We’re talking about two excellent field goal kickers and ideal conditions in Glendale. Both are used to kicking outdoors in swirling winds in Foxborough and Seattle. While I have a great deal of respect for the two defenses, I believe we’ll see them bend, but not break, leading to at least two long FG attempts. All we need is for one of those to go through the uprights. I would still play the Over at 45.5 yards.
Steve Merril: Total Pass Attempts by Tom Brady (Patriots) – OVER 36.5
The Patriots are unlikely to have much success on the ground against the Seahawks. New England is a pass-oriented offense anyway, so expect a lot of passes by QB Tom Brady in this game. Overall, Brady attempts 38.6 passes per game while Seattle’s opponents have thrown for a league high 32.1 pass attempts per game. The last time the Patriots played Seattle (2012), Brady threw the ball 58 times despite New England leading for the majority of that game.
Matt Fargo: Russell Wilson total rushing yards over/under 41.5 – Under (-110)
While there is the potential for Wilson to rush for a lot of yards as he has done numerous times this season, there is a ton of value on the under here. Last Super Bowl, this prop was at 30.5 and Wilson managed just 26 yards against the Broncos. He is coming off rushing totals of 22 yards against Carolina and 25 yards against Green Bay and the Patriots defense has been solid against good rushing quarterbacks. They have played five games against quarterbacks ranked in the top seven in rushing yards and held them to an average of 14.8 ypg with Aaron Rodgers getting the most yards in those five games, gaining just 22 yards.
Will Rogers: Russell Wilson total passing yards over/under 220.5 – Under (-110)
Wilson really struggled in the first half of the NFC Championship Game versus Green Bay, and he threw a career high four INTs in that game. I expect Seattle to look to establish the run here in the Super Bowl, taking some of the pressure off their quarterback.
Sean Murphy: Will any other performer join Katy Perry and Lenny Kravitz for halftime show? Yes (-130)
While Katy Perry and Lenny Kravitz offer more than enough star power, I won’t be surprised at all if we see a third guest performer join the stage at halftime in Glendale. A number of Katy Perry’s biggest hits – recent ones at that – feature guest artists, and it doesn’t have to be a big name performer for this ticket to cash. That’s not to mention the potential for Lenny Kravitz to bring a friend to the party (that’s a little less likely). There’s a reason we’re being asked to lay some chalk to support this play.
Steve Merril: National Anthem – Under 122.5 seconds
Idina Menzel sang the National Anthem on December 29, 2007 (Patriots/Giants) and it took just 94 seconds. More recently, she sang the National Anthem this past summer at the 2014 MLB All-Star Game and it only took 118 seconds. She also stretched the ending out extremely long, taking 21 seconds between “land of the free and the home of the brave”.
It is doubtful she could stretch it out much longer this time around as no Super Bowl singer in the past eight years has taken longer during that final part. Six of the past eight Super Bowls have seen the National Anthem total 114 seconds or less, with four of the past five staying in that range as well.
Will Rogers: Marshawn Lynch to score a touchdown (-166)
Seattle’s workhorse ran for 157 yards and touchdown against Green Bay, and he’s found the end zone five times in his last five games. I expect Seattle to be handing off to Lynch early and often, and chances are he will score in the Super Bowl.
Matt Fargo: First score of the game will be? Field goal or safely (+135)
Touchdown (-165)
Field goal or safety (+135)
We used this same prop last year and will do so again here. Ten of the last 16 Super Bowls have seen a field goal or a safety lead off the scoring and at favorable odds here, I like that to continue. Last year, a safety led off the scoring so for anyone that took a field goal or a safety cashed again.
These are two strong offensive teams but the Super Bowl will tighten up even the best of them and these defenses are solid, especially the Seahawks. Over these last 16 Super Bowls, there have been an average of only 6.1 ppg scored in the first quarter, so touchdowns have been rare to begin with.
Sean Murphy: Will either team score three times in a row? No (+120)
‘Yes’ would have cashed for this prop in both conference championship games, but I like the value being offered going the other way in the Super Bowl. While I have a lot of respect for the two defenses in this game, there’s no question both offenses have the ability to respond following a score, let alone consecutive scores.
Both teams have faced their share of adversity in these playoffs – the Patriots against the Ravens and the Seahawks against the Packers. I’m confident we’ll see these two elite teams go back and forth in a heavyweight fight on Super Bowl Sunday.
Steve Merril: Second Half + OT is higher scoring (vs. first Half)
The first quarter has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring over the past decade of Super Bowls, which gives this prop value. We often get more points scored late in the game as the trailing team begins to press and makes mistakes which often leads to defensive scores, etc.
The Patriots rank third with 14.2 ppg scored in the second half, while the Seahawks rank eighth with 13.5 ppg scored in the second half. Another small edge is the fact overtime is more likely with two evenly matched teams. While overtime has never occurred in a Super Bowl, this year it is a bit more likely with a pick’em point spread.
Super Bowl XLIX line a ‘bookmaker’s game’, Sharp Money on ‘Under’
By Jason Logan
Someone get Europe on the phone – the 80’s cock rock band not the continent – because we’re nearing the final countdown.
Super Bowl XLIX is a week away and while the majority of the Big Game handle has yet to show, action over the weekend and Monday has had some impact on the spread and total between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
We talk with Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with online market Sportsbook and Jimmy Vaccaro, a veteran oddsmaker for the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, and Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about the betting patterns heading into Super Bowl week
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots – Open: +3, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: -1
Even before the AFC Championship was wrapped, some books were offering an early line on Super Bowl XLIX with Seattle as a premature field-goal favorite. As New England continued to pour on the points against the Indianapolis Colts in the conference title game – deflated balls or not – that early spread was bet down to a pick’em, where most books opened the official line for the Feb. 1 NFL championship in Arizona.
Since opening, most markets – online and in Nevada – have taken more money on the Patriots, shifting the line as big as New England -1.5, where it has stood relatively still for the past few days. However, that silence was broken Monday morning when sharp action came in on the Seahawks and forced the line from New England -1.5 to -1, according to Childs, who also said moneyline bets on Seattle trimmed the outright odds from Patriots -120 to -115.
In Nevada, action has been ramping up as the Super Sunday draws near, but while there is a slight lean toward the Patriots, books have taken two-way money. Most sportsbooks in Las Vegas are dealing New England -1 but know that could change as the weekend rolls around.
“We’re still taking more on the Pats right now but that Seahawks money is coming,” Stoneback. “Especially since we’re so close to the Northwest, the Seahawks fans are coming to town.”
The balanced betting so far is ideal for bookmakers. With the current trends, they’ll turn a profit either way thanks to the juice and won’t need to cheer for one side or the other when the Patriots and Seahawks clash Sunday – a text book game plan for bookies.
“It’s been really good so far from the bookmakers’ standpoint,” Vaccaro. “We have not had to move the line off Patriots -1. So it’s a bookmaker’s game – just chopping up the juice. Right now, it’s the easiest I’ve ever seen in the last 30 years. You know it’s not gonna go crazy up or crazy down.
“I wish they wouldn’t play for two more weeks, so we could just keep taking money on it.”
The spread may not be giving oddsmakers any issues heading into the Super Bowl home stretch, but the total has seen notable movement recently. Childs says sharp money jumped on the Under, dropping the Over/Under from 49 points to 48, but that the Over is still the popular play for the Big Game.
“Most of the action was sharp but we’re starting to see some public action support the Under,” Childs. “But no question the majority of the action is on the Over. It’s a case where we respect the Under money that has been coming in and we also feel that even at 48, this total is too high for the two defenses we’re going to see come Super Bowl Sunday.”
POINTWISE
4* Seattle 30 – New England 24
PHIL STEELE / INSIDE THE PRESSBOX
Patriots 27 – Seahawks 24
VINCENT RIZZO SPORTS
NFL Super Bowl —– New England +1
JIMMEY KIMMEL
Jimmy Kimmel show, he had “Cousin Sal” at the Westgate Casino in Las Vegas.
He placed $1000 on each of the following 10 props. If they all come in, the payout would be $31,770.80. Any proceeds will go to charity.
1) HEADS
2) WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 TIMES IN A ROW? (YES)
3) WILL THERE BE A SAFETY? (YES)
4) WILL ROB GRONKOWSKI SCORE A TD? (YES)
5) TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS FOR MICHAEL HOOMANAWANUI OVER 6.5
6) WILL RUSSELL WILSON SCORE A TD? (YES)
7) WILL TOM BRADY SCORE A TD? (YES)
8) WILL RICHARD SHERMAN INTERCEPT A PASS? (YES)
9) LEBRON JAMES (-3.5 ) POINTS ON SUNDAY OVER TOM BRADY COMPLETIONS
10) TIGER WOODS 4TH ROUND SCORE IN THE WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN (-5.5) OVER JULIAN EDELMAN RECEIVING YARDS
WUNDERDOG SPORTS
NFL Game: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (101/102)
Time: Sunday 02/01 6:30 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Straight Unanswered = YES -205 at Diamond (risk 1.5 to win 0.73)
________________________________________
it’s the Super Bowl. The two teams that made it here are deserving and great. They are probably at least relatively evenly matched. If you asked 10 of your friends whether one of the two teams will score three straight times without the other team scoring, probably eight of them would say “no way!” Your gut tells you that one team scoring back-to-back-to-back unanswered just isn’t likely to happen. That’s why most people bet the NO on this prop. it’s also why the oddsmakers end up shading the line. They likely know that they are offering great odds on the YES bet but since most of their action is on the other side, they are ok with it. That leaves a great opportunity for us to take advantage. The reality is that in 48 Super Bowls, there have been 35 games in which one or both of the teams scored three straight times unanswered during the game. That comes out to 72.9% of the time. Fair odds on a 73% bet are -270. So, getting -205 on this bet has value. Take the YES and look forward to winning this bet three out of every four times you place it.
MIKE ANTHONY
Prop Play
OVER 3.5 TD’s for Tom Brady +600
SIXTH SENSE
1* Seattle Seahawks +1
SPORTS NETWORK
Seahawks 23, Patriots 20
NORTHCOAST SPORTS
Double Marquee —- Jamie Collins Under 8.5 tackles
Marquee —- Defensive/Special teams TD Yes +160
Marquee —- Tom Brady Over 262.5 yards
Comp Super Bowl Props
1. Will there be a defensive or special teams TD? YES (+160)
2. Will Tom Brady complete OVER 262.5 passing yards? YES (-110)
PREDICTION MACHINE
The Super Bowl has a point spread that is very close in Las Vegas, but a computer simulator has figured out who will win.
Using an astounding array of analytics, the Predictalator on Prediction Machineran 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. And 57.5 percent of the time in its simulations, the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots.
And from these tens of thousands of simulations, the site has the Seahawks most likely winning by a 24-20 score.
According to the folks who run the Predictalator, the Seahawks are “simply, the team more capable of dominating.”
“For the second straight year in a row, we like Seattle when the vast majority of the public – over 70 percent based on available betting information – believes the AFC is going to win. Much of that perception is likely based off of what happened during conference championship weekend,” Paul Bessire, general manager of Prediction Machine.
“I would caution against that mindset, acknowledging that the most important player on the field for the Seahawks [Russell Wilson] had the worst day of his professional career against one of the best teams in the NFL and Seattle still won. It’s tough to expect anyone, Wilson or otherwise, to play that poorly in the Super Bowl. If he and the team around him play up to expectations, Seattle looks like a clear favorite.”
The site uses a variety of inputs to generate strengths and weaknesses for each team, and then lets it simulate 50,000 games. Each game simulates each play, making for a maddening amount of data to cull.
Last year, the Predictalator went against conventional wisdom and picked the Seahawks to beat the heavily favored Denver Broncos. Seattle won 43-8.
In the scenario that emerged from the 50,000 simulations this year, the Seahawks limit Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to 235 passing yards (the Patriots were 3-4 this season in games that Brady threw for less than 250 yards, including Week 17 when he was pulled after playing in the first half).
As for Brady and the Patriots, not even deflate-gate could touch the Predictalator. Not even once in 50,000 simulations.
“Every ball in every simulation we conduct in the regular or postseason is inflated to the proper 12.5 to 13.5 PSI. In 50,000 simulations, that’s a whole lot of balls, none of which seems to lose two-plus PSI during the games,” Bessire said. “That’s 1.5 million properly inflated balls for a normal game and 6 million for this week. It’s an assumption worth revisiting for future seasons, but, fortunately the Super Bowl is the only game all year in which the NFL provides all the balls.”
Seattle is the lock
Under is also a play
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 vs New England Patriots (Covers 60.4%), UNDER 48.5 (Covers 57.3%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: New England 20.3 – Seattle 23.5
SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 57.3%
ATS Pick and Win%: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 covers 60.4%
ATS Wager for $50 player: $84
O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (48.5) 57.3%
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $52
Boxscore: Patriots 20, Seahawks 23
STEVE FEZZIK
Double-dime bet – Seattle Seahawks +1
Double-dime-bet – Under 24 total 1st Half
BRANDON LANG
100 Dime – Money Move selection is on the NE Patriots over the Seahawks. As I release this play Thursday afternoon, the game is anywhere from pick-em to New England -1 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best price available.
POP BETS:
Fist Half UNDER 24.5
Coin Toss – Tails
National Anthem – Over
There will be a field goal over 33 1/2 yards- (+140)
First score Field Goal
Will either team score 3 straight times – NO (+160) – includes xtra points/FG’s
First Half Tie – Yes (16-1)
Patriots Score First
Russell Wilson Under 220 yards passing
First Score Other Than a TD – (+145)
Congratulations to owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady on another championship.
Patriots 27-17″
TONY APPZ
15* Seattle (Pk) (Vegas Insider)
FREDDY WILLS
Seahawks+2 (5.5*)
Seahawks +8/Under 54.5 – 6pt teaser (4.4*)
Prop play – Tom Brady Under 266.5 yards passing (3.3*)
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.
STU FEINER
1000* Seattle Seahawks
100* Under – New Engalnd vs Seattle
DAVE ESSLER
2* NE Patriots (pk)
GOODFELLA
Triple Dime Dominator — NE Patriots
Prop – No Score first 6:30 of game
SCOTT SPREITZER
3* Seattle Seahawks
BRYAN LEONARD
Triple-dime-bet – Seattle Seahawks+1
SPARTAN
Triple-dime-bet – 102 SEATTLE 1.0 (-110)
PHILLYGODFATHER
1st half – Under 24.5 – New England vs Seattle
Bookieshunter Super Bowl XLIX
3* NE Patriots +1 vs. Seahawks (59.2% money on Seattle w/total down from 49 to 47.5)
Props:
Shortest touchdown length – over 1.5 (2.00 ) under 1.5 (1.83)-pick: under 1.83
Either team scores three times unanswered scores – yes 1.51/no 2.68 – pick no 2.68
L. Blount rush attempts – over 14.5 (2.00) under 14.5 (1.83) pick over 2.00
J. Edelman pass receptions over 6.5 (2.00) under (1.83) pick under 1.83
Will Russell Wilson score a rushing touchdown yes 3.00 no 1.35 pick yes 3.00
Both teams make a 33 yd + FG yes 2.15 no 1.69 pick yes 2.15
Coin toss winner choice – receive 6.00 defend 1.11 pick receive 6.00
MADDUX SPORTS
10* Seattle Seahawks (pk)
JEFF ALEXANDER
5* NE Patriots -1
JEFF HOCHMAN
4* NE Patriots (pk)
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaires — UNDER – New England vs Seattle
Pinnacle — Seattle Seahawks
The New England Patriots have played in seven Super Bowls and have covered the spread only once. So bettors are digging deep as they take this fact to the Sportsbook and betting the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson is 5-1-1 ATS in his L7 playoff games, and Seattle has now won 8 straight games, going 7-1-0 ATS in those contests and allowing a total of just 75 points (3, 3, 14, 7, 6, 6, 14, 22) along the way. Their only non-cover was in last week’s exciting 28-22 OT win over the Packers in the NFC Championship game at CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City as closing 8½-point favorites on the Board. Both teams strangely rallied after mid-season losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Patriots have won 5 of their L6 overall but New England is just 1-3 ATS L4. Nobody in the NFL has been hotter in the second half of the 2014/2015 NFL season than the Seahawks, thanks in great part to the stellar play of their young and extremely versatile QB Russell Wilson and that historic defense. Overall the Patriots have struggled to run up the score of late, averaging just 20.3 points per game in their previous three games. Also of concern is New England’s struggle at times to produce points away from Gillette Stadium, scoring more than 23 points on just three occasions this season, and failing to do so since routing the Colts in Indy back in Week 11. Against a Seahawks defense that has proven capable of standing tall in the direst of circumstances, and has given up just 26 total second-half points, including a mere two TDs, over their last eight contests. It will be crucial for Brady and the Pats to get on the scoreboard early to keep pace with the defending champs but like last years Super Bowl, expect the Seahawks to prevent that from happening. Seattle has continued to dominate with defense, holding opponents to just over nine points per game during their current winning streak, while stymieing opposing quarterbacks; most recently Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Carolina’s Cam Newton, who were held to a combined 401 passing yards and three TD tosses, while throwing a total of four picks. New England has been very kind to the sportsbooks on the totals as they have gone under the total in four of their five Super Bowl appearances in the Brady era, including the last three. Tom Brady is making his sixth Super Bowl appearance — an all-time record. The Patriots are 3-2 straight up in those games but just 1-4 ATS. They are 0-4 ATS as favorites and have not covered the last four spreads.
Recent Trends to Consider:
Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in February.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Superbowl games.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Superbowl games.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in February.
Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
With the best defense in the NFL and an extra week to prepare, Seattle looks poised to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the Patriots did so in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX.
TAKE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
BIG AL MCMORDIE
AWESOME 10* SUPER BOWL OVER/UNDER WINNER — RED-HOT NFL RUN!
UNDER 48.5 – New England vs Seattle Seahawks