NFL Conference Championship Sunday Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)
The Seattle Seahawks opened defense of their Super Bowl championship by thrashing the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. Now, the only thing standing between the Seahawks and a return trip to the Super Bowl is Green Bay, which pays a visit to No. 1 seed Seattle on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers, who were limited to only 255 total yards in the 20-point season-opening loss, must find a way to solve the Seahawks’ top-ranked defense with star quarterback Aaron Rodgers dealing with a torn calf.
While a hobbled Rodgers rallied Green Bay past the Dallas Cowboys 26-21 last weekend, Seattle rolled to its seventh consecutive victory win a 31-17 win over the Carolina Panthers. The Seahawks are surrendering an average of eight points during the winning streak and have permitted one fourth-quarter touchdown in that span. “We’re going to have to be efficient against them,” Rodgers said. “They’re a great defense, they’ve got Pro Bowlers all over the place and they’re well-coached.”
TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE HISTORY: The initial line opened at Seattle -7, but quickly moved to -7.5 within 24 hours of being posted. The total opened at 47, but shifted to 46.5 as quickly as the spread.
INJURY REPORT: Packers – QB Aaron Rodgers (Prob-Calf), RB Eddie Lacy (Prob-Knee) Seahawks – CB Byron Maxwell (Prob-Chest), C Max Unger (Prob-Ankle)
WEATHER FORECAST: A wet, windy day is in store for Seattle Sunday. Rain showers are expected through the entirity of the game, while winds are expected to be gusting between 13-16 mph.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “Of course the big question everyone wants to know is how much has Rodgers healed from last week. With that kind of injury, I’d guess probably not much at all. He was immobile and the fact that he couldn’t follow through on some passes forced him to miss a few throws. I don’t know if the Packers had a chance to win at Seattle with a healthy Aaron Rodgers so it’s asking a lot for this upset.” – John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (13-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 11-5 O/U): The left calf injury took away Rodgers’ mobility against Dallas, but he still threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns, completing his final 10 passes and leading a pair of long touchdown drives in the comeback victory. Green Bay shied away from throwing at star cornerback Richard Sherman in Week 1 but it has ample weapons with the wideout tandem of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb – a combined for 189 catches and 25 touchdowns during the regular season – along with rookie Davante Adams, who had seven catches for 117 yards and a TD versus the Cowboys. Running back Eddie Lacy was limited in practice Thursday but has rushed for at least 97 yards in six of the last seven games, while Green Bay’s defense has held eight of the past nine opponents to 21 points or fewer.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (13-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U): Although Seattle gave up two TDs in a game last week for only the second time since mid-November, it is the first team to lead the league in fewest points (15.9) and yards per game (267.1) in back-to-back seasons since the Chicago Bears in 1985-86. “Guys are doing whatever it takes to win,” Sherman said. “Guys are playing for one another, they don’t care about stats. Championships are won in the playoffs.” Russell Wilson threw for 268 yards and three scores last week to improve to 25-2 at home (playoffs included) and has the luxury of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who gashed the Packers for 110 yards and two TDs en route to his fourth straight 1,200-yard season. The “Legion of Boom” secondary made its presence felt last week with Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for a score.
TRENDS:
*Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
*Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
*Over is 8-3 in Packers last 11 vs. NFC.
*Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
CONSENSUS: 63 percent of users are on Green Bay.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 53.5)
Andrew Luck has guided the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons but the former No. 1 overall pick has one noticeable blotch on his resume – the inability to beat the New England Patriots. Luck will get a fourth crack at Tom Brady & Co. when the Colts travel to New England for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. The Patriots, bidding for their sixth Super Bowl in 14 seasons, have demolished the Colts by a combined 144-66 in the past three.
New England, which rolled to a 42-20 victory at Indianapolis on Nov. 16, made postseason history by erasing a pair of 14-point deficits in last week’s 35-31 victory over Baltimore to advance to their fourth consecutive conference title game. “The Patriots are a great, great team,” Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. “Hall of Fame coach. Hall of Fame quarterback. We all know how hard it is to win there.” Indy is coming off an upset victory at Denver, knocking off Peyton Manning and the Broncos 24-13.
TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE HISTORY: The initial posting had the Patriots -7, which is where is sat until Wednesday when it shifted to -6.5. The opening line of 53.5 has remained steady, with some books going down to 53.
INJURY REPORT: Colts – CB Vontae Davis (Prob-Knee), CB Greg Toler (Prob-Groin) Patriots – CB Brandon Browner (Prob-Knee), RB Jonas Gray (Prob-Ankle), C Bryan Stork (Ques-Knee)
WEATHER FORECAST: Rain is expected to fall on Gillette Stadium throughout the game. Rainfall is predicted to amount to 25-35 mm starting early Sunday morning. Winds are expected to be mild, gusting to 5 mph.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “As I’ve said, I don’t think you can count the Colts out of this one now that they have some semblance of a running game. I think they have the most potent offense left in the dance. The defense is the variable. It’s been playing over its head the last few weeks so is this the game it comes back to earth? Bill Belichick seems to have Chuck Pagano’s number recently but we’ve taken a lot of smart money on the underdog.” – John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.
ABOUT THE COLTS (13-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Although Luck had his string of three straight 300-yard postseason games halted and tossed a pair of interceptions, but he also had a pair of touchdown passes and spread the ball around as Indianapolis held the ball for 34 minutes. Running back Daniel “Boom” Herron has rushed for a touchdown in each of the two postseason wins while hauling in 18 receptions. T.Y. Hilton was the leading receiver during the regular season with 1,345 yards and has 10 catches in the postseason while tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener each had eight touchdown receptions. Indianapolis’ defense limited Manning to 211 yards and has surrendered an average of 11 points in its last three games since a 42-7 blowout loss at Dallas on Dec. 21.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4 SU, 12-14 ATS, 9-7 O/U): New England set an NFL record for fewest rushing yards (14) in a postseason victory, but the ground game has sparked the past two victories against the Colts. Rookie Jonas Gray rumbled for 201 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11 while LeGarrette Blount steamrolled Indy for 166 yards and four scores in a 43-22 playoff win last season, but Gray was inactive last week and Blount had three carries for one yard. With no running game for which to speak, Brady threw for 367 yards and three TDs while also rushing for a score and tight end Rob Gronkowski had seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman had 92 catches during the regular season and Danny Amendola had a pair of TD catches, but the Patriots’ defense was burned for four scoring passes.
TRENDS:
*Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
*Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 games overall.
*Underdog is 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
*Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: Action on this matchup is split down the middle at 50 percent.
Today’s NFL Picks
Indianapolis at New England
The Colts (6-3 SU on the road) head to New England on Sunday to face a Patriots team that is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games versus a team with a winning road record. New England is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12.
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18
Game 301-302: Green Bay at Seattle (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.240; Seattle 147.300
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7 1/2); Under
Game 303-304: Indianapolis at New England (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.803; New England 143.578
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 57
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over
2014 NFL page
Conference finals
Packers (13-4) @ Seahawks (13-4)– Last seven NFC title games were all decided by 7 or less points, with visitor winning three of last four. Green Bay is 12-0 on grass, 1-4 on turf, including 36-16 (+5.5) loss here in Week 1 Thursday night game, when Seattle ran for 207 yards, outgained Pack by 143 yards and had 12-yard edge in field position. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this year; Rodgers’ calf not being 100% doesn’t help. Seattle won its last seven games (6-0-1 vs spread); they’ve allowed three TDs in last four games, while defense scored two TDs of their own. #1 seeds in NFC are 4-2 vs spread in their last six NFC title games; underdogs are 4-2-1 in last seven NFC title tilts.
Colts (13-5) @ Patriots (13-4)– New England scored 41.2 ppg in winning last five series games; they ran ball for 244 yards in 42-20 win at Indy in Week 11, with RB Gray spark in an offense that had 33 first downs, scoring six TDs on nine drives in game that Patriots led only 14-10 at half. Indy won three in row, seven of last eight games; this is their 4th road game in five weeks. Colts are 1-2 as underdogs; their last three losses were by 17-22-35 points. Home team won seven of last eight AFC title games; #1 seeds in AFC won last four games in this spot. Since 1990, favorites are 17-13 vs spread in conference title games that were a rematch from a regular season game.
NFL’s Biggest Betting Mismatches: Championship Sunday
Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for NFL Championship Sunday:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)
Packers’ Yards after the catch vs. Seahawks’ YAC allowed
Aaron Rodgers proved that a one-legged man does have a chance in an ass-kicking contest, putting on a gutsy performance in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers, limited by a torn calf muscle, was stellar in the second half versus the Dallas Cowboys, but his ability to move around in the pocket and the lack of zip on his deep throws were very evident. It’s why Jordy Nelson only had 22 yards on two catches last Sunday.
Since shifting to a shotgun/pistol heavy offense, the Packers have relied a lot on yards after the catch. Defenses are guarding against the deep ball, leaving underneath routes and short passes with little resistance. Green Bay is third in the NFL in YAC, tacking on an additional 6.39 yards per reception and picking up almost 54 percent of their total receiving yards after the catch.
The Seahawks can’t help by salivate when sizing up A-Rod’s wonky leg. Seattle’s rush not only can close in on passers in a heartbeat – sacking Rodgers three times as well as a forced fumble for a safety in Week 1 – but this defense allowed the second fewest yards after the catch this season. Opponents mustered just 96.3 YAC a game before the Seahawks torrid-tacklers wiped them out.
Seattle was also tops in shutting down the big play, giving up only 14 passes of 25 yards or more all season. With the Packers’ long bombs all but defused, thanks to Rodgers’ calf injury, the Seahawks can focus on shutting down the short looks and jumping those passing lanes. Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for six points against the Panthers last week was a perfect example of this.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)
Colts’ revved-up run defense vs. Patriots’ o-line issues
The Patriots have run up and down the Colts in their recent meetings. New England is averaging 199.7 yards on the ground over the three games against Indianapolis with Andrew Luck and its quarterback, going back to 2012. The Pats have scored a total of 12 rushing touchdowns in that span, including a monster 246-yard, four-touchdown day on the ground in Week 11’s 42-20 thumping of the Colts on the road.
Running the ball on Indianapolis may not be as easy in the AFC Championship. A big reason has to do with the Patriots playing musical chairs on the offensive line since rookie center Bryan Stork went down with a knee injury in the second half of last week’s win against Baltimore. New England is well equipped to absorb the loss of the center – the most underrated position in football betting – sliding current right guard and former center Ryan Wendell to the middle. That shift, however, leaves the right guard position up in the air and throws a wrench in Bill Belichick’s beloved jumbo set, which has squashed the Colts in past meetings.
It’s a minor move that could have a major impact, due to the fact that New England has been able to blow up defenses with runs to the right side. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Patriots averaged 5.71 Adjusted Line Yards when running off the right guard, which ranked second highest in the NFL. It’s a go-to side when the team desperately needs to pick up some ground gains and it might not be there Sunday.
On top of that, the Colts have put on their big boy pants when it comes to stuffing the run in recent weeks. The return of big-bodied defensive lineman Arthur Jones helps, especially drawing double teams and freeing up other tacklers. Jones missed the game against New England in November. Versus the Bengals in the Wild Card Round, the Colts stumped Cincinnati for only 110 yards. They locked down the Broncos to just 88 yards last weekend after Denver rumbled for an average of 145 yards per game in the final seven weeks of the season.
“We’re playing better run defense now than we ever have, so that’s a positive,” head coach Chuck Pagano told the media. “We’ve got to prepare the same way we prepared last week. We’ve got to do a better job because if we’re not able to stop the run, we’re not going to have a chance.”
Action Report: Bettors split down the middle in Packers-Seahawks
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL
The stage is set in Arizona for Super Bowl XLIX except for one thing: the teams. That will be decided Sunday when the AFC and NFC Championships take place. We talk to Peter Childs, lines manager for offshore book Sportsbook, about where the action is heading and where those lines could end up as kickoff approaches.
In New England’s clash with Indianapolis, the book has stood Pat on New England -7 but there’s been some change on the juice. “There’s been very little line movement since Wednesday,” said Childs. “We’re at Colts +7 -120, but we’re starting to take a decent amount of Pats money. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re dealing Patriots -7 -105 by gametime.”
Indianapolis breezed to an easy +9.5 cover last week versus the Peyton Manning-led Broncos with a 24-13 victory, while the Patriots (who closed as touchdown chalk) failed to cash for their backers in a thrilling 35-31 comeback victory over Baltimore. It’s a classic matchup of the wiley veteran versus the up-and-coming star at the quarterback position, which could provide Colts signal caller Andrew Luck with an opportunity to exorcise some demons. The Stanford product has struggled mightily against Bill Belichick’s crew in his career, losing all three games in which he’s faced New England by at least 21 points. The meetings haven’t been close, either, as the Patriots have outscored Luck and the Colts 144-66 in those contests.
In Green Bay-Seattle, bettors at Sportsbook can’t seem to make up their minds, says Childs.
“We opened Seattle -7.5 -105 but we were forced to move that number to -7.5 flat due to an influx of early Seahawks money,” the lines manager says. “At that spread it’s literally split down the middle on both money and bet tickets. I believe -7.5 flat will be our closing number.”
Bettors will surely remember the 36-16 beat down that the green and gold received in front of the vaunted “12th man” in Week 1, but it’s quite clear across the board there is no clear consensus that the majority of the public is backing as of Saturday evening.
Packers signal caller Aaron Rodgers has made no secret that he’s playing at less than 100 percent health due to a nagging calf injury, but even the nearly immobile Rodgers was still able to put on a fine performance last week versus Dallas in the form of 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 125.4 quarterback rating. The Pack were unable to cover the closing -5.5 line by the slimmest of margins, winning 26-21.
The reigning champion Seahawks came through for their spread backers last week against Carolina, barely covering the huge -13.5 spread in a 31-17 win.
Take it or leave it? Capping the NFL Championship rematches
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
Just like we experienced last year, this weekend’s slate of NFL Conference Championship action features two rematches from the regular season.
In 2013, Denver got its revenge against New England in the AFC Championship game while Seattle beat San Francisco for the second time in three meetings for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
So the big questions on everybody’s mind as we approach kickoff is will the Packers and Colts have the last laugh or will Seattle and New England reign supreme yet again?
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5)
Last meeting (9/4/2014 in Seattle): Seahawks defeat Packers 36-16 in the NFL Thursday night opener as Seattle outgains Green Bay 398-255 behind 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns from running back Marshawn Lynch. Seattle goes on a 26-3 run at the beginning of the second quarter and lasts until 9:31 of the fourth quarter.
Why that game matters now
The most effective way to slow down soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense is by creating relentless pressure via the front four while dropping seven defenders into coverage.
Of course, this is easier said than done, but the New York Giants pulled it off during the Divisional Round of the 2012 playoffs at Lambeau Field and the Seahawks executed this game plan to perfection against Rodgers back in Week 1 as well as at the beginning of the 2012 regular season.
Seattle averaged 2.62 sacks and 1.75 turnovers forced per game at CenturyLink Field this season while holding Rodgers to his second-lowest QB rating of the 2014 campaign (81.5).
And don’t for one second underestimate the crowd noise in Seattle Sunday, which is just one reason why CenturyLink is the toughest venue in the business to score a road win.
Why that game doesn’t matter now
If there’s one chink in the Seattle defense that Green Bay is capable of exploiting it’s the Seahawks’ run defense.
While Pete Carroll’s crew finished the regular season ranked third against the run (81.5 yds/gm), Seattle surrendered an average of 138.7 yards per game on the ground in its four losses this year, which is a staggering increase from the 62.4 yards per game permitted through the team’s 12 victories.
Eddie Lacy (12 carries, 34 yards) was a non-factor in Week 1 against Seattle as well as through Green Bay’s first four contests. But the Alabama product came on strong down the stretch and will need to have a big outing if the Packers plan on having any chance of advancing to Arizona for the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-6.5, 54)
Last meeting (11/16/2014): Patriots defeat Colts 42-20 as New England converts 9 of 11 third down opportunities en route to 503 total yards of offense. Unknown running back Jonas Gray leads the way for the Patriots with 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries.
Why that game matters now
The New England Patriots were a three-point dog in hostile territory during a primetime Sunday night encounter at Lucas Oil Stadium, and wound up covering the number by 25 points.
So now that the venue is switching to a stadium where quarterback Tom Brady has gone 49-7 over the last six seasons, why should we believe the result will be any different?
Indianapolis’ run defense ranked 18th in the league during the regular season with the club surrendering over 100 rushing yards in seven of eight road contests. And if there’s one thing we know about head coach Bill Belichick, it’s that he’s a master at exploiting the opposition’s weaknesses.
Why that game doesn’t matter now
Of the 246 rushing yards New England amassed against Indianapolis back in November, 201 were racked up by Gray, which is a real head-scratcher because Gray has carried the ball just 20 times since.
But the real angle here is the fact that this is not the regular season. Take note that for as dominant as the Patriots have been during the Brady-Belichick era, the organization is just 3-11 ATS over its last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS over its last five Conference Championship games.
So is it really a surprise to see that this number has already been bet down from New England -7.5 to as low as New England -6?
Rain, winds expected to hamper NFL Conference Championships
By JUSTIN HARTLING
The only thing that looks to dampen the excitement of the NFL Conference Championship games Sunday is the weather. Both games are expected to be hampered by high winds and large amounts of rain.
Heavy rain amounting to 20-35 millimeters is expected to fall on Saturday in Seattle. Rain is expected to let up Sunday, but light precipitation is expected throughout the day.
Winds are expected to be blowing hard at CenturyLink Field as well, blowing between 13-16 miles per hour towards the south endzone throughout the game.
Gillette Stadium will be less windy than its Northwestern counterpart, but rain is expected to be heavier for gametime.
Rain is expected to start in the early afternoon in Foxbouough and fall non-stop through the AFC title game. Rainfall is expected to amount to between 20-30 mm with winds gusting upwards of 5 mph.
Seattle is currently -7.5 against Green Bay with a total of 46.5 while New England is -6.5 with a total of 53.5 against Indianapolis.
Rodgers struggling on the road vs. top defenses
Stephen Campbell
The Seattle Seahawks are known for their powerhouse defense and have dominated teams once again this season. According to recent trends, that could spell trouble for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday.
Rodgers faced the top five scoring defenses on the road three times this year (Week 1 at Seattle, Week 3 at Detroit and Week 15 at Buffalo) and averaged just 179 yards, combining for his three worst quarterback ratings of the campaign. The California native threw two touchdowns and had three interceptions in those matchups.
Oddsmakers have set the Pack as +7.5 road underdogs for the game with the total sitting at 46.
Patriots have been Luck’s kryptonite
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL
The general consensus around the league is that Andrew Luck is on the path to greatness as an NFL quarterback, but there’s one upper echelon team he has to get past before he can achieve that: the New England Patriots.
The Stanford product has played the Patriots three times in his career and has lost by at least 21 points each time. After topping the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, Luck and the Colts will try and get some redemption Sunday when they face Tom Brady’s crew once again in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
In the aforementioned three contests, Indy has been outscored 144-66. Each game has gone above the total by an average of 10 points.
The Patriots finished the season at 9-7 against the spread and an Over/Under mark of 9-7. The Colts were the second best spread play during the 2014-15 campaign with a mark of 10-5-1 ATS and a 9-7 O/U record, but head into the game going Under the total in six straight outings.
New England finds themselves as touchdown favorites for the game with the total sitting at 53.5.
NFL Prop Shop: Championship Sunday best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY
Sean Murphy knows games as big as the AFC and NFC Championships shouldn’t be confined to just side and total bets. He opens the door to the NFL Prop Shop for a special Championship Sunday edition:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Most rushing yards
Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers) vs. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)
I might be in the minority but I’m confident we’ll see Eddie Lacy outgain Marshawn Lynch on the ground on Sunday afternoon in Seattle.
The Packers defense will probably need to pick its poison if it’s going to have any hope of slowing down the Seahawks offense. I expect to see the Packers do everything they can to contain Lynch, while also minimizing Russell Wilson’s impact running the football. The Seahawks passing game has been opportunistic, but isn’t all that imposing. The Cheese Heads will sell out to stop the run, and do a decent job keeping Lynch under wraps.
Aaron Rodgers turned in a heroic performance against the Cowboys last Sunday, but that shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The guy’s an MVP through and through. I do expect to see Green Bay shift its gameplan against the Seahawks, as it tries to relieve some of the pressure on Rodgers. That means a healthy dose of Eddie Lacy. Don’t count on a career day from Lacy but he will do enough damage to stay within the yardage spread.
Take: Lacy (+21.5 yards)
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Most passing yards
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
With the emergence of Dan Herron in the backfield, the entire offensive load hasn’t been dropped on Andrew Luck’s shoulders in these playoffs. With that said, I believe we’ll see a different story unfold on Sunday, as the Patriots take away Indianapolis’ running game and force Luck to sling the ball all over the field.
Of course, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the Colts, as Luck is more than capable of putting up big numbers. He’ll also make a couple of critical mistakes in this game, but that’s another story.
We’re being asked to lay some yardage to back Luck in this matchup, but it’s worth it in my opinion. There’s a good chance the Colts will be playing from behind by the time the second half rolls around, and that should help boost Luck’s numbers when it’s all said and done.
Take: Luck (-26.5 yards)
Most pass receptions
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts vs. Brandon LaFell (New England Patriots)
With Danny Amendola drawing an increased role in the Patriots offense, I expect to see Brandon LaFell take a step back against the Colts.
This selection obviously goes hand-in-hand with our play on Luck. As he goes, so does T.Y. Hilton. You can be sure the Colts will call Hilton’s number early and often, even if he draws blanket coverage. If Indy is going to go down, I’m certain it will go down swinging (or throwing in this case).
With no yardage tariff, I like the value with Hilton – even against a Pats secondary that showed the ability to lock down the opposition in the second half against Baltimore last week.
Take: Hilton
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
SUNDAY UFC FIGHT NIGHT 59 – OTHER SPORTS
6 Unit Play. Take Donald Cerrone +120 over Benson Henderson (UFC Fight Night – Boston, MA)
How can I go against one of my favorite UFC fighters Sunday night and I don’t care that he just fought a couple weeks ago. Donald ?Cowboy? Cerrone (has won 6-straight fights) dominated Myles Jury in Vegas early this month and Sunday night I get Cowboy plus money against Benson Henderson. Henderson is coming off a KO/TKO loss to Rafael dos Anjos in late August of 2014 and he will have his hands full against Cerrone. Should be an outstanding fight and I’m picking my boy again Cowboy Cerrone to win the late 2nd round.
SUNDAY AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS
2 Unit Play. Take Tunisia +125 over Cape Verde (2:00p.m., Sunday, January 18) (Graded after regulation time – 90min – plus injury time, 3-Way bet so if end in a draw we lose)
NFLBetting Picks / Kevin
2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – SEAHAWKS -7.5 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
The Seahawks have an opportunity to be the first time to repeat as Super Bowl Champions since the Patriots did in the 2004 season. If they win on Sunday it looks like they might be facing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. There has been a long history of teams collapsing the following year after winning the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks have been able to turn that around after paylaying last years success into a potential trip to Arizona for the Super Bowl this season. They face a Green Bay Packers team that they opened the season against in week 1 in this same setting in Seattle. Back then the Seahawks took care of the Packers by a score of 36-16. Now they get the Packers again at home, albeit against a less than 100 percent Aaron Rodgers. The Packers may feel fortunate that they are in this position after a call went against the Cowboys late in that one. They were able to lean on the running game of Eddie Lacy last week to make it here, rushing for 101 yards on 19 carries. They are not going to be able to rely on a run game in this game, presumably. The Seahawks are suffocating upfront and allow little running lanes for opposing running backs. The Hawks were 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground. Can’t run the ball and want to throw it with Rodgers? Good luck doing that with a gippy Rodgers on the road in Seattle vs the best pass defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allowed only 185.6 yards per game through the air. Note that the Packers haven’t been the same team on the road that they have at home. They were 4-4 during the regular season with the best team they beat being the Miami Dolphins. Remember they needed a last second touchdown to make that win happen. I fully expect the Packers to run the ball, get stuffed repeatedly, and force Rodgers into winning this game for them. I don’t know if he could at 100% and with the calf injury bothering him it will make it even more difficult. Rodgers got pressured against him early in the season against the Lions and he looked awful as a result. I see the Seahawks being able to have the same impact on Rodgers in this game. Look for the Seahawks to advance to the Super Bowl once again this season as they end the Packers’ dreams. It should be closer than the week 1 meeting, but I like the Seahawks to pull away late and win by around 10-14 points.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS
NFL : Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Time: Sunday 01/18 3:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Green Bay +7.5 (-115)
I’ve been one of the biggest backers of the Seattle Seahawks the past two years. Over that span I am 16-8 in game picks in Seahawks games, including the call in last year’s Super Bowl over Denver. In that game and leading up to it I have felt the Seahawks were very underrated. I have felt that Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the game and didn’t get the respect he deserved. Well, times – they are a changin’. The Green Bay Packers suffered a blow when Aaron Rodgers injured his calf and has been hobbling around the last two games. It will likely not be much better vs. Seattle in the NFC Championship game as he’ll have just a week to try to heal. That may not be as important as everyone thinks. Rodgers was able to lead his team to 30 and 26 points the past two weeks. And, Mike McCarthy has a plan on how to attack the Seattle defense. McCarthy is planning on using a lot of Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and even Randall Cobb on the ground. Looking back at the last two seasons when Seattle has had their stellar defense, teams that succeeded against them all had one thing in common. They beat Seattle by running between the tackles. The Seahawks are too good and too fast to lose through the air or running wide. Teams that commit to running the ball, regardless of early success, have been the Seahawks’ biggest challenge. The last two seasons they are 18-2 ATS if the opponent runs the ball 25 times or fewer, and 26-0 straight-up if the opponent runs the ball 26 or fewer times. When an opponent sticks to the running game, Seattle’s success drops to 8-7 straight up! That’s right: all their losses have occurred vs. teams committed to the run. I think Green Bay’s game plan will be heavy on the run, forcing Seattle to commit extra defenders in the box and giving Rodgers a much better chance. Rodgers is the best ever at avoiding costly interceptions (1.6% INT rate in his career). As hard as it is for opposing QBs to have success against Seattle, if anyone can, it is Aaron Rodgers. It isn’t necessarily the success of running the ball – it is the commitment to it, as four of the seven losses Seattle has sustained the last two years were by teams that ran for much less than 4 yards per carry. Green Bay is vastly improved defensively since moving Clay Matthews to the middle of the field, and the Seattle offense has gone for less than 400 yards 12 times this season. In games against defenses similar to Seattle’s, the Packers scored about 17 points per game this season. But, when Seattle faced high-powered offenses like Green Bay’s, they allowed around 20 points per game. Seattle’s amazing defensive run in the second half of the season has to come with an asterisk. In their last twelve games this team hasn’t faced an offense like they will see on Sunday. Here are the offenses that Seattle has beat up on: St. Louis (2), Carolina (2), San Francisco (2), Arizona (2), Oakland, Giants, Kansas City, Philadelphia. The average rank of those teams offensively? 20th. The only good offense in the bunch was Philadelphia. If we look at the offenses that Seattle faced this year that are similar to the one they will see in this game, Seattle gave up 16 (GB), 20 (Denver), 30 (Dallas) and 14 (Philly). That’s 20 points per game which is a far cry from the 8.0 per game they have allowed over their last seven games. Yes, Seattle’s defense is great. It’s just not as great as the numbers make it seem right now. As a result, we get line value opposing them. I think Green Bay gets into the low to mid 20s in this game. Seattle should also score in that range. It should be a close game that comes down to one possession. Since taking over in Green Bay, the Packers are 34-22 ATS vs. winning teams. Yes, the Seahawks laid a beating on Green Bay when they met in week one. But, NFL playoffs teams that lost to their opponent during the regular season have a distinct advantage, going 55-34-3 (62%) ATS since 2001. I think this line is inflated, even with a hobbled Rogers (who I expect to rise to the occasion). Take Green Bay with the points.
MADDUX SPORTS
10* Green Bay +7.5
INSIDE THE PRESSBOX / PHIL STEELE
SEAHAWKS 24 PACKERS 14
PATRIOTS 34 COLTS 24
POINT TRAIN
5* NE Patriots
Colin Cowherd Conference Championship
Patriots -6.5 (36-28 Pat’s)
Seattle -7.5 (30-20 Seahawks)
PREDICTION MACHINE
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
301 3:05 PM GB @ SEA 7.5 -5.1 56.6% $44
303 6:40 PM IND @ NE 7 -5.3 54.6% $23
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
302 3:05 PM @ SEA GB 26.0 20.9 63.5%
304 6:40 PM @ NE IND 28.2 22.9 62.9%
OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
304 6:40 PM IND @ NE 53.5 51.1% Under 53.5 $12
302 3:05 PM GB @ SEA 47 46.9% Under 50.1 $0
JACK CLAYTON
01/18 03:40 PM NFL (303) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.
5* NFL Weekend Wipeout – Take: (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.
Reason: A tough spot for Indy, at Denver last week and now at the Pats, an indoor team playing 2 straight outdoor games in cold weather. The Pats have so much talent and versatility on offense, so they will be able to run and pass on this weak Colts defense — something they couldn’t do last week against the Baltimore defense. On November 16 the Pats won 42-20 at the Colts. The Patriots had the edge in yards with 503, the Colts 322 as the Pats were 9-11 on third down, the Colts 5-13 (1-3 on fourth down). The Pats had 33 first downs, the Colts 17 and New England had 244 yards rushing, 5.6 ypc. Belichick followed the same tack he used in last season’s 21-point playoff victory over Indy — overpowering the Colts with the run. New England rushed for 244 yards, compared to 19 yards on 17 carries for the Colts. Brady improved to 12-4 against the Colts. The Colts sent five or more pass rushers on more than half of Tom Brady’s dropbacks (16 of 30). Brady handled the blitz well, throwing both his touchdowns against added pressure. In the 2013 Playoffs: Pats won at home, 43-22. The Colts had 4 TOs, the Pats none, and this is a much better New England defense with Browner and Revis in the secondary. Play the (304) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.
EZWINNERS
Sunday NFL
5* 7 Point Teaser Seahawks -1/2 & Colts +13
3* Seahawks -7.5
3* Colts +6
2* Colts +$215
Sports Nostradamus
7* Colts / Patriots – Over 53.5
3* Seahawks -7
LA Syndicate
5* Seattle Seahawks -7
Chicago Syndicate
3* Colts +7
2* Seahawks -7
1* Packers/Seahawks Over 46.5
H&H Sports
3* Indianapolis Colts +7
GMC-NFL Selections
301 Green Bay +7.5
304 New England -6
MARC LAWRENCE
5* Indianapolis Colts
ASA
5* New England
3* Green Bay vs Seattle – Under
GOODFELLA
NFC CONFERENCE 3* GAME OF THE MONTH —-SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7
BONUS NFL 3* DOMINATOR PLAY —- INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7
SPARTAN
NFL TRIPLE STAR PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR! —– NE Patriots-6.5