by WINNERS_ONLY
NBA Odds and Predictions: Saturday, April 18 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
My favorite playoffs of the year tip off Saturday as the Sweet 16 of the NBA begins. Do I agree that the league should alter the playoff format to a true 1-16 bracket and simply take the best 16 teams regardless of conference? I do. The Celtics (40-42) and Nets (38-44) don’t belong in the postseason over Oklahoma City (45-37). But even if you want to the true best 16, there still would be at least one team under .500 this season, so perhaps there’s no perfect fix. While a No. 8 upsetting a No. 1 is not a big deal in the NHL any longer, it’s extremely rare in the NBA, and I don’t see it happening this season. Here’s a look at Saturday’s four openers.
♦♦Wizards at Raptors (-4.5, 196.5)
It’s a 12:30 start on ESPN. The Raptors are the No. 4 seed in the East, which I tend to think they are happy about instead of potentially grabbing No. 3 from Chicago on the final night of the regular season. Washington is the No. 5 and had nothing to play for on Tuesday or Wednesday and lost in Indiana in double overtime and Cleveland in overtime. So the Wizards probably would have liked to open on Sunday instead of Saturday. The only injury issue for Washington is to big man Nene, but he will play. Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan is dealing with a groin injury and Amir Williams an ankle issue, but both played Wednesday. The best part of Wednesday’s win over Charlotte was that point guard Kyle Lowry looked like an All-Star for the first time in weeks since a back injury began bothering him. He had 26 points, seven assists and four rebounds. The Raptors swept the season series 3-0 with Washington, but all three were before the All-Star break and the last two were both decided in the final seconds. No team has gone longer without a playoff series win since Toronto’s last in 2001.
Series price: Raptors -200, Wizards +165.
Key trends: Washington is 3-7 against the spread in its past 10 in Toronto. The “over/under” has gone under in six of the past seven there.
Early lean: Take the points, go under.
♦♦Pelicans at Warriors (-11.5, 205.5)
A 3:30 start on ABC. Kudos to West No. 8 seed New Orleans as I didn’t expect the Pelicans to beat the visiting Spurs on Wednesday night to get in the postseason because San Antonio had won 11 straight games and still had the No. 2 seed in the West to play for. Yet the Pelicans won 108-103, and that has to be a confidence boost. Can they beat the Warriors? Not a chance unless Steph Curry gets hurt. But it’s a good learning experience for young superstar Anthony Davis, who probably will be in the playoffs now for the next decade. New Orleans has pretty much everyone available, although point guard Jrue Holiday can’t play heavy minutes yet off his return from a lengthy leg injury. What more to say about overall No. 1 Golden State? It had one of the great regular seasons ever at 67-15 and tied for the second-best home record ever at 39-2. Curry will win MVP. The Warriors won three of four regular-season meetings, splitting in New Orleans, while scoring 112, 128 and 112 points in the three victories.
Series price: Warriors -6000, Pelicans +2000.
Key trends: New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its past four at Golden State. The under is 6-2 in the past eight there.
Early lean: Pelicans sort of made their goal so I expect them to be flat here and blown out. Warriors and over.
♦♦Bucks at Bulls (-7, 193.5)
A 7 p.m. start on ESPN. This is the first-round series the No. 3 Bulls wanted. Obviously very easy travel 90 miles up the road, and it’s a very young Bucks team. Although Chicago looked like it might drop to No. 4 as the Hawks were dominating their game in the Windy City on Wednesday night. However, then Coach Mike Budenholzer benched his starters and the Bulls rallied for a 91-85 win, their fourth straight. Derrick Rose played only 10 minutes due to a slightly sore knee but says he’s fine. Taj Gibson left with a shoulder injury but also says he’s fine. Joakim Noah missed a second straight game with a hamstring injury, but he will play Saturday, although perhaps not 100 percent. Chicago won the season series 3-1 but lost the most recent matchup on April 1, which is the only game that Michael Carter-Williams played in the series.
Series price: Bulls -750, Bucks +500.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Give the points as long as Noah plays. Stay under.
♦♦Mavericks at Rockets (-5.5, 210)
A 9:30 tip on ESPN. Houston was the biggest winner (other than New Orleans and Brooklyn) on Wednesday. The Rockets caught a huge break when the Spurs were upset in New Orleans as that opened up the No. 2 seed in the West with a Houston win, and it destroyed Utah 117-91 to close the regular season with three straight double-digit wins. James Harden came up short for the scoring title but had a triple-double against the Jazz. Harden will finish second in the MVP voting and will be first-team All-NBA. Houston lives and dies by the 3-pointer, making at least 10 in 56 games this season, an NBA record. The big question for Houston is whether point guard Patrick Beverley can return from a wrist injury for the playoffs. He originally was thought to be lost for the season. I’m not counting on his return, but he says it’s a “strong possibility.” Houston doesn’t need him to beat Dallas. These teams have a lot in common in that Dallas always wanted Dwight Howard and tried to get Josh Smith when he came free early this season. Houston was trying to trade for Rajon Rondo before Dallas got him. Then you have the whole Chandler Parsons thing and Mavs owner Mark Cuban constantly ripping Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Houston won the season series 3-1.
Series price: Rockets -380, Mavericks +300.
Key trends: Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its past five at Houston. The over is 5-2 in the past seven there.
Early lean: Rockets and over.
Warriors, Cavs are favorites to win NBA title
By: Zach Cohen
Odds to Win 2015 NBA Title
Cleveland Cavaliers 11-to-5
Golden State Warriors 11-to-5
San Antonio Spurs 4-to-1
Chicago Bulls 15-to-1
Atlanta Hawks 16-to-1
Los Angeles Clippers 18-to-1
Houston Rockets 25-to-1
Memphis Grizzlies 30-to-1
Dallas Mavericks 55-to-1
Portland Trail Blazers 75-to-1
Toronto Raptors 75-to-1
Washington Wizards 85-to-1
New Orleans Pelicans 150-to-1
Boston Celtics 250-to-1
Brooklyn Nets 300-to-1
Milwaukee Bucks 300-to-1
The NBA playoffs begin on Saturday and that means that it’s time to take a look at who could be hosting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in June:
Golden State Warriors (11-to-5) – The Warriors and Cavaliers are the two favorites to win the NBA title this season, getting pretty favorable odds at 11-to-5. Golden State, however, was arguably deserving of being the lone favorite to win it all this season. This Warriors team won the ultra competitive Western Conference by 11 games and finished the season with a point differential of +10.1. Not only did Golden State win games, but it was absolutely dominant while doing so. The Warriors are also nearly impossible to defeat on their home floor, going 39-2 at Oracle Arena this season. PG Stephen Curry (23.8 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG) and SG Klay Thompson (21.7 PPG, 1.1 SPG) are guys that can get so hot that they can win the Warriors a game in a quick five-minute stretch. This team is on a mission and as long as C Andrew Bogut (6.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) can stay healthy, there isn’t much that can get in its way.
San Antonio Spurs (4-to-1) – The Spurs are the team with the best chance to knock off the Warriors. San Antonio closed out the regular season with nine wins in its final 10 games. The defending champs always turn it on when it matters most and they will be hungry to prove that they are not over the hill. SF Kawhi Leonard (16.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 SPG) is one of the most dangerous weapons in the entire league, capable of lighting it up offensively or locking down his opponent on the defensive end. He will do whatever he can to win this team another championship and veterans PF Tim Duncan (13.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 BPG), PG Tony Parker (14.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and SG Manu Ginobili (10.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG) are still more than capable of taking over on any given night. Getting the defending champions at 4-to-1 is an excellent value.
Chicago Bulls (15-to-1) – The Bulls are one of the best teams in the league, but they have really suffered a ton of injuries this season. PG Derrick Rose (17.7 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG) returned from a torn meniscus on Apr. 8, but he is dealing with soreness in his knees heading into the postseason. He is the biggest question mark for this team, as Chicago has a great chance of winning it all if he is able to stay on his feet. The Bulls would be able to stay competitive without Rose in the lineup, but they would not be able to win a championship. At 15-to-1 this team is worth taking a chance on because Rose has played in five straight games heading into the postseason and insists that his knees are feeling fine.
Atlanta Hawks (16-to-1) – The Hawks finished the season with 60 wins and were dominant in the Eastern Conference throughout the year. They also played very well when facing the Western Conference powerhouses, yet this team is still getting ridiculous 16-to-1 odds. Atlanta is a very well balanced team and played flawless basketball on both ends of the floor this season. The Hawks put up 102.5 PPG (10th in NBA) thanks to 25.7 APG (2nd in NBA) and also allowed just 97.1 PPG (5th in NBA). They went 35-6 when playing at home this season and it will not be easy for opponents to steal a game in Atlanta. This team is a very good value pick and people should not hesitate to make a small play here.
Betting 101: How to Safely Bet the NBA Playoffs
By Jason Logan
The NBA Playoffs open this Saturday, offering up a new set of challenges for basketball bettors to hurdle before a new champion is crowned.
Betting on the postseason with the same tactics and practices used in the regular season can quickly lead to disaster. So, in order to help you successfully navigate the NBA Playoffs, we’ve polled some of Covers Experts’ sharpest basketball handicappers, who give their best tips and strategies for making postseason profits on the hardwood.
Rare upsets
Ever since the NBA went to the best-of-seven format in the first round, early upsets have gone the way of the dinosaur and dollar drink night.
The NBA is such a top-heavy league, especially in the Eastern Conference, with a huge divide between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds and the rest of the playoff field. Expecting upsets in the opening round may be asking a little too much, and more often than not favorites are covering the spread when they win the game. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
“Going back to 2005, there have been 10 teams seeded sixth or lower to win at least one playoff series,” says Bryan Power. “In only one year – 2008 – were there no such teams to advance.”
Last season, No. 6 Brooklyn knocked off No. 3 Toronto in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs.
Zig-Zag Theory
The Zig-Zag Theory is a popular system for wagering the postseason, simply betting on the team that lost the last game. However, this process has fallen off the pace in recent seasons – due to popularity and oddsmakers being wise to the process – and doesn’t really hold much value when it comes to the pointspreads.
“Ignore the Zig-Zag Theory in series where one team is clearly overmatched,” says Sean Murphy. “Often times, bettors will get hung up chasing the underdog and end up getting buried. The Zig-Zag generally only works in matchups that are likely to go the distance.”
However, basketball bettors applying the Zig-Zag Theory to NBA playoff totals are getting great return, especially when going against the Over/Under following an extreme outcome, like a uncharacteristic high-scoring game or a cold shooting night from a powerful offense.
“The oddsmakers often incorrectly adjust totals based on the previous scores in a best-of-seven series and this can lead to value with a Zig-Zag approach to betting Over/Unders,” says Steve Merril, “especially when the true pace or tempo of a game was actually faster or slower than the previous final scores would seem to indicate.”
Books have been known to quickly up or trim a playoff total based on the previous game’s result, opening the window for total bettors to grab the other side with added points in hand. This is especially prominent in the opening round of the playoffs, when books and bettors are getting a feel for the postseason atmosphere.
“We often see totals swing three to four points from one game to the next based on how far the prior game went Over or Under and these can provide some strong betting opportunities,” Matt Fargo says of the Zig-Zag Theory.
Respect regular season, don’t worship it
The postseason is a completely different beast than the regular season, and banking on the results from the past 82 games can leave NBA bettors coming up short.
Even though one opponent dominated the other during the schedule, those results may not translate over to the playoffs were intensity, durability and depth play much bigger roles. There are a lot of factors influencing the regular season results while playoff basketball is much more focused.
“Make sure to take a closer look at the situation of the regular season matchups, looking for the following types of things: Was one team playing the second of back-to-back games, or nearing the end of a long road trip? Was one team playing without a few of its top players?” suggests Ben Burns.
Understanding Over/Unders
Playoff basketball favors the better defensive team, which is why the San Antonio Spurs keep showing up deep into the postseason. The intensity is turned up and the refs tend to allow more physical play to slide.
For those reasons, totals can get a haircut in the opening round when compared to the regular season numbers. However, with some lopsided series in the opening round – especially in the Eastern Conference – bettors may not see the same level of defensive intensity until the second or third round, when the matchups get more competitive.
“The defensive intensity often picks up when the weaker teams are weeded out at the end of the first round, although that might not hold true for the West, which is solid from No. 1 to No. 8,” says Murphy.
Doc’s Sports sees a major swing in the total come playoff time, thanks to a high-scoring regular season. They’re expecting some added value with the Under early on in the postseason due to the lack of true defense-based teams, and the explosive offense of those teams that ranked among the NBA’s best stoppers.
“Some of the best defensive teams, like the Spurs and Hawks, had great offenses and these teams would regularly post high team totals on poor defensive teams or just run with similar high-scoring clubs,” says Doc’s Sports. “That should change in the playoffs as the game becomes more half-court and teams lock down on the defensive end.”
Handicapping health
After the grind of the 82-game regular season, almost every team making the postseason cut is dealing with aches and pains – some more than others. Injuries to key players can throw a serious wrench in the postseason plans.
Nick Parsons points to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs as an example. The Spurs have gone to the NBA Finals in two straight seasons, and showed the wear and tear of that this season. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili each missed time with injuries this season and Tim Duncan, while impressive down the stretch, averaged a career-low 13.9 points per game and 9.1 rebounds (third lowest of career).
Some teams that locked in their postseason positioning a while ago have had the luxury of resting key players down the stretch of the NBA schedule, and come into the playoffs much fresher than those who have been battling right up until the final seconds of game No. 82. Weighing a team’s energy level is important to figuring out if they have enough gas left in the tank to compete in the playoff grind.
Four NBA teams to be wary of backing this postseason
Andrew Caley
The Washington Wizards, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors and the Los Angeles Clippers are teams to be wary of when making playoff wagers this postseason.
These four teams are not only the worst playoffs teams against the spread, some were just plain the worst, starting with the Wizards.
Washington ended the season tied for the worst ATS record in the NBA at 33-46-3 ATS. However, their opponent in the first round, the Raptors, were not much better at 37-44-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks and Clippers, who compiled 50 and 56 wins respectively this season, could never quite meet books expectations. The Mavs posted the NBA’s sixth worst ATS record at 36-44-2 ATS (and take on one of the best bets in Houston in the first round), while the Clippers went 37-44-1 ATS.
Important Stat you need to know for Bucks-Bulls
Justin Hartling
No team in the NBA playoffs have been called on more personal fouls per game (22.1) than the Milwaukee Bucks. Unless the Bucks can improve their discipline, the Chicago Bulls will certainly exploit the trips to the free throw line.
The Bulls ended the regular season third in the NBA in both free throws made per game (19.7) and percentage of points from the charity strip (19.6 percent).
In their four contests against one another this season, the Bulls have shot 77.8 percent from the free throw line while averaging 20.3 points from the free looks.
Chicago is currently -7.5 for Game 1 Saturday.
Warriors’ Lee ruled out for Game 1 vs. Pelicans
Stephen Campbell
Golden State Warriors big man David Lee has officially been ruled out for his team’s opening game of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday.
Lee has been suffering from nagging back issues. Despite the news, the Dubs had moved from -11.5 to -12 at the time of writing.
Saturday’s NBA Playoffs Game 1 Line Moves
Lines went on the board Thursday morning and are on the move roughly 24 hours later Friday morning.
Here is a look at where spreads opened and where they currently stand at Top Bet:
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – Open: -3.5, Current: -4.5
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors – Open: -9, Current: -11.5
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls – Open: -8.5, Current: -7.5
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets – Open: -5.5, Current: -5.5
Can ‘Underdogs’ dominate NBA Playoffs betting like last year?
By Jason Logan
NBA betting underdogs were unleashed in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs last year, going an incredible 32-19-1 ATS (with one pick’em game) and covering the spread at a near 63 percent rate.
And that was the story for most of the 2014 postseason as well, as NBA underdogs finished the playoffs with a 52-36-1 ATS mark (57.8 percent). That Round 1 trend bled over into the conference semifinals, where underdogs finished 14-9 ATS, then went south in the conference finals (3-9 ATS) before showing up a bit in the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs (3-2 ATS).
So, will basketball bettors see similar success blindly betting the underdog when the 2015 NBA Playoffs start Saturday?
“With the Western Conference, it’s a lot closer than the Eastern Conference this year,” Mark Tomita, assistant manager at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas tells Covers. “The West looks pretty wide open this year.”
Tomita does expect the public to come in heavy on the notable favorites, like Golden State and Cleveland, but says early money has already taken San Antonio, which is a 1.5-point pup at the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.
As for which playoff teams hold the most ‘Underdog Value’, here are the top NBA underdog bets this season:
New Orleans Pelicans – 26-13 ATS
Boston Celtics – 31-17 ATS
Milwaukee Bucks – 29-20-1 ATS
Atlanta Hawks – 12-9-1 ATS
Houston Rockets – 16-12 ATS
Memphis Grizzlies – 13-10 ATS
In a cruel twist of this trend, NBA bettors should beware of double-digit NBA Playoff underdogs. Since the 2003 NBA Playoffs, when Round 1 went to a best-of-seven format from best-of-five, double-digit dogs are just 29-42-3 ATS (6-68 SU) in the postseason – covering just 41 percent of the time.
There are a pair of double-digit underdogs on the board for this weekend’s games: New Orleans +11 at Golden State, and Boston +11 at Cleveland. Those two teams, as shown above, just so happen to be the top underdog bets in the NBA this season.
Underdog-heavy results are a double-edged sword for sportsbooks. While the general public gravitates towards the big-name favorites, the sharp bettors tend to take the points in the NBA Playoffs. This is especially true with some of the earlier weekday postseason time slots – the 7 p.m. ET starts – which are on at 4 p.m. in Nevada.
These weekday afternoon games in Las Vegas don’t get much walk-in traffic from tourists and conference goers, which leaves the books to go one-on-one with the wiseguys in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, with little money from the betting public to limit liability.
“The midweek people aren’t getting engaged until after 5 p.m. and it makes the late games much more attractive, since they can come in and place a bet and have a beer,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports from MGM properties in Las Vegas, last April. “That leaves us going head-to-head with sharps in the early games. So if the underdogs are covering in those early midweek games, it’s not good for us.”
Last year’s early underdog trend did pull a fair share of public bettors away from the favorites. Rood said that NBA regular season games will see an 80/20 split of money on the favorite and underdog but that difference drops to 75/25 in the postseason.
As for the regular season giving any hints of how the playoffs could lean, oddsmakers did their job handicapping the games. Favorites and underdogs split, each going 601-601-27 ATS on the year.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take Toronto (-125) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Saturday, April 18)
I will go with R.A. Dickey and the home team in this one. Atlanta has gotten off to a really good start to the season and is one of the surprise teams in the National League. But now they are wandering into an American League ballpark, and I don’t think that they have enough offense to keep up with the Blue Jays in this one. Dickey has taken a pair of tough results in his two starts this year, losing both despite posting a 2.19 ERA right out of the gate. He deserves better and will get this win. Atlanta is slated to start young Alex Wood. Toronto should beat up this lefty starter, and I thought Wood was lucky to escape several jams in his last start against the Mets. He only gave up three runs in six innings. But he allowed 11 base runners. If the weather is nice the roof will be open in Toronto and the ball will be flying off Toronto bats. I like the Jays to get this win Saturday afternoon.
NEWSLETTER Boxing Prediction From Raphael Esparza
Take Cesar Chavez Jr. (-225) over Fonfara (9 p.m., Saturday, April 18)
It was an easy winner last week with our free play with Tiger Woods making the Masters cut. Let’s get another winner in boxing here, and don’t forget that I have a 7-Unit UFC Selection this weekend. Chavez Jr. has won back-to-back fights since his lost to Sergio Martinez, and granted those two victories were against the same fighter in Brian Vera. But a victory is a victory. Chavez Jr. dominated the second fight against Vera, and his body punches were devastating. If he can get to the body early in this fight we should see the outcome. Fonfara is stepping up in class for this fight, and if he can’t step up in the lime light I see him getting punished early from body blows and jabs to the chin all fight long. Actually a bit shocked to see this number climb down, and I thought for sure this fight would be closer to -300 by now. If this number continues to drop I will toss more coin down on Chavez Jr.
UFC on Fox 15 Preview: Can Rockhold take the next step and top Machida?
By MMAODDSBREAKER
The main event of UFC on FOX 15 is a five-round middleweight bout between Luke Rockhold and Lyoto Machida.
Rockhold (13-2) is one of the best middleweights in MMA. The 30-year-old American is 3-1 in the UFC with submission wins over Michael Bisping and Tim Boetsch and a knockout win over Costas Philippou, with his lone loss coming to Vitor Belfort by KO. Prior to entering the UFC, Rockhold was the Strikeforce champion, having defeated top-ranked Ronaldo Souza by decision in a big upset back in 2011. He also holds a notable win over Tim Kennedy.
A finisher, Rockhold has 11 stoppage wins in his career, with only Souza and Kennedy surviving the 25 minutes. Rockhold is good everywhere. He has a really effective, active kickboxing attack with knockout power in his hands and legs, he has excellent wrestling, and his submission game is out of this world. He uses his reach really well and is one of the biggest middleweights out there, making him a nightmare matchup for most in the 185lb division. He also has fantastic cardio and can easily go 25 minutes without even breaking a sweat.
The only flaws he’s shown in his career have been in his striking defence and chin, as he’s been tagged in the past and knocked out in both of his career losses, to Belfort and to a journeyman earlier in his career. Still, the early-career loss can be written off and there is really no shame in getting knocked out by Belfort, so overall Rockhold is a guy who just hasn’t shown many holes in his game. He is a pleasure to watch fight, and if he beats Machida, he should finally get his crack at the UFC middleweight championship.
Machida (22-5) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion. The 36-year-old Brazilian is 14-5 in the UFC, including a 3-1 record since moving down to 185lbs with middleweight victories over Mark Munoz, Gegard Mousasi and CB Dollaway, with his lone loss at the weight coming to the champ Weidman.
Machida is a karate-based fighter and no one in MMA history has been more effective with his karate than Machida has been. His ability to thrown one accurate, devastating, and explosive strike is perhaps unparalleled. He has one-strike knockouts over the likes of Dollaway, Munoz, Randy Couture, Thiago Silva, Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans, which is a really, really impressive resume. In addition to his amazing striking, he is also an underrated wrestler and underrated on the ground.
The biggest problem with Machida over the years has been his activity level. In some fights, like his fights with Phil Davis and Ramapge Jackson, Machida was the more effective striker but his lack of activity made the judges go the other way. Of course, those were bigger opponents, but still, sometimes he will just stand there looking for an opening for that one big shot and the judges will go against him. His style has worked in close fights against guys like Dan Henderson and Shogun Rua, but it didn’t work against Davis and Rampage and he was inactive in the first few rounds against Weidman, which cost him.
No doubt he’s an amazing fighter, but going up against a longer, younger and more active fighter like Rockhold, Machida will have to be more active if he wants to win this fight, or at least land that one big strike to put his opponent away, and while it’s possible, it won’t be easy to do against a guy of Rockhold’s caliber, which is why he’s the dog heading into this fight despite all of his accolades in the UFC.
This is an amazing fight, and could very well be a Fight of the Year candidate when it’s all said and done. Rockhold and Machida are two of the most talented, complete mixed martial artists on the planet at any weight class and so it’s a real treat that us fans get to watch them thrown down this weekend. This is not an easy fight to pick, but I have to lean Rockhold, for a few reasons.
First off is the age advantage. We know that younger fighters usually beat older opponents, and while Machida has taken great care of his body, he’s still in his late 30’s while Rockhold is in his early 30’s. Next up is the size. Machida did fight at 205lbs for a long time, but Rockhold is still the bigger fighter here and he has the longer reach. I also think Rockhold has the wrestling advantage here. I think Machida is an underrated wrestler with solid takedown defense, but if Rockhold really tries to implement his wrestling in this fight, he can be successful with it.
I also think that while Machida is a devastating striker and holds the power edge, I think that Rockhold is a much more active fighter and we all know the judges love when guys throw strikes, something Machida doesn’t do at times. I also give Rockhold the edge in submissions. To me, everything is adding up to Rockhold winning a decision here by outpointing Machida on the feet and winning a decision, but it’s very difficult to bet against Machida, who is a proven winner.
Laying juice against Machida is typically a bad idea, but I can’t ignore all the advantages Rockhold has in this fight. If the line gets back to a Pick ‘em price near fight time — and I expect it to as I see late money coming in on Machida — I’m gong to have to pull the trigger on the American to get the job done and pick up the biggest win of his career against the former light heavyweight champion.
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
UFC MATCHUPS – OTHER SPORTS
7 Unit Play. Take Luke Rockhold -165 over Lyoto Machida (9:30p.m., Saturday April 18 UFC on FOX) Luke Rockhold comes into this fight on a 3 fight winning streak and I’m hoping to see the same Rockhold fighter like I saw when he fought Michael Bisping. Rockhold has outstanding striking and I’m shocked that his last two victories have been by submission. The Dragon Machida is a crafty veteran but all I think about is when Chris Weidman manhandled the Dragon and I believe we could see another butt kicking Saturday night. No disrespect to the Dragon but I’m taking the better, younger, and winner Luke Rockhold.
3 Unit Play. Take Paige Van Zant -125 over Felice Herrig (8:00p.m., Saturday April 18 UFC on FOX) UFC – Bonus Fight: Paige Van Zant is only 21 but when Saturday we will remember this young lady and I believe she will be too quick for Felice Herrig.
HBO BOXING MATCHUPS – OTHER SPORTS
4 Unit Play. Take Lucas Martin Matthysse -140 over Ruslan Provodnikov (10:00p.m., Saturday April 18 HBO)
Lucas Martin Matthysse comes into this fight on a two fight winning streak and in his last fight he easily took care of Roberto Ortiz in the 2nd round (KO). Saturday night Matthysse has a big Russian in his path but I believe Matthyssee will get to Provodnikov early in this fight and I see this fight ending in the mid-rounds. Matthysse wins this fight between the rounds of 6 thru 9 and we cash another Boxing ticket.
DON ANTHONY (NBA Playoffs)
Chicago Bulls-7.5
Cleveland Cavaliers-11
San Antonio vs LA Clippers – Over 205
SLEEPY J (NBA Playoffs)
3* Chicago Bulls-7.5
SPORTS INSIGHTS – (NBA Playoffs)
Golden St. Warriors-11
STEVE FEZZIK (NBA Playoffs)
Dime Play – UNDER – Milwaukee vs Chicago
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Small ball producing big results for A’s
Not a single Oakland Athletic has left the yard more than once through 10 games. Billy Butler and a handful of others are leading the team with all of one home run. But a whopping five regulars—including Butler at .359—are batting .300 or better. As such, the A’s have scored 56 runs and are 7-3 O/U. Next up is a three-game slate with the Kansas City Royals (5-3 O/U).
Here come the Dodgers
Since starting the 2015 campaign 2-3 (3-2 O/U), the Los Angeles Dodgers have won four in a row (3-1 O/U). Adrian Gonzalez is batting a ridiculous .528 with five homers and nine RBIs. With Gonzalez on fire and a weekend series against the Colorado Rockies upcoming, L.A. has to be feeling good. In the most recent series between the two NL West rivals last September (also in L.A.), the Dodgers swept by a combined score of 23-14 (3-0 O/U).
They’ve got his number
Something will have to give when Ubaldo Jimenez pays a visit to Fenway Park for a date with the Boston Red Sox on Friday. Jimenez gave up only one hit and no runs while striking out eight during his first start of the season, a 7-1 blowout of the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday. But in three outings vs. Boston in 2014 he went 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three starts, including a 7.00 ERA in two appearances at Fenway.
Pitching Notes
* David Price is getting the start on Friday afternoon. That is great news for the Detroit Tigers and terrible news for the Chicago White Sox. That’s because Price has not given up a single run in 14.1 innings this season and boasts 0.84 WHIP to go along with his perfect ERA. The Tigers are 8-1 so far (5-4 O/U) and 2-0 (1-1 O/U) when Price starts. The southpaw is 1-4 O/U in his last five outings dating back to last year.
* It has been open season on Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Kyle Lohse in 2015. The 36-year-old is 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA after allowing 18 hits and 12 runs in 9.2 innings. Not surprisingly, Milwaukee is 2-0 O/U when Lohse takes the bump and 5-3 O/U in Lohse’s last eight dating back to 2014. The veteran’s next outing is Saturday at the Pittsburgh Pirates, against whom he went 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts last season.
Hitting Notes
* The Boston Red Sox are tied for the major-league lead in runs scored (56) and they are first in runs per game. Thank you, Hanley Ramirez. The left fielder is batting .278 with four home runs and nine RBIs. No team has gone over the total with more consistency than Boston (8-1 O/U). It has an upcoming weekend series against AL East rival Baltimore (6-2-1 O/U).
* Is it Panik time for the San Francisco Giants? The defending World Series champions are 3-7 (4-6 O/U) and have crossed the plate only 26 times, third fewest in the National League. Second baseman Joe Panik is hitting .176 and shortstop Brandon Crawford has a .152 average. They have combined for four RBIs in 67 at-bats.
Totals Streak
Houston Astros (2-7 O/U): The under is no better than 5-3 with any other team in Major League Baseball as of Thursday afternoon, but it is 7-2 in games involving the Astros. They have scored only 23 runs, tied for third fewest in the entire league. Dallas Keuchel (1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), who is scheduled to take the mound on Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels, is 2-9 O/U in his last 11 starts dating back to last season.
Injury Notes
* New York Mets’ third baseman David Wright suffered a strained right hamstring while stealing a base on Tuesday and went on the disabled list the next day. Eric Campbell was called up from Triple-A Las Vegas and is expected to be the Mets’ everyday third baseman while Wright is out. In eight games with the veteran all-star, New York was 5-3 O/U.
* The Kansas City Royals are 7-0 (5-2 O/U) with Alex Rios (.321, 1 HR, 8 RBI) in the lineup and 0-1 (0-1 O/U) without him. They will have to get used to Rios being absent, because the right fielder sustained a fracture in his left hand on Monday and will miss three to six weeks.
Umpire State of the Day
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