by WINNERS_ONLY
Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday August 7, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I, like most Americans, prefer offense. I think that’s why hockey and soccer struggle a bit in this country. There just isn’t much scoring; even though I’m a big fan of both sports. But sometimes, a pitchers’ duel is baseball beauty. And we get one on Friday (actually a few) in the clear marquee game of the night in Pittsburgh as the Los Angeles Dodgers make their only visit of the season. It will be televised by ESPN and thus have live betting at sportsbooks. It also could be a preview of a Game 1 of a playoff series as the Pirates are atop the NL wild-card standings, and the Dodgers are going to win the NL West even though the Giants are hanging around. It’s the first time Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have played this season.
♦ Dodgers at Pirates (+127, 6)
It’s All-Stars and Cy Young candidates Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Gerrit Cole of the Pirates. The lefty Kershaw (9-6, 2.37) extended his scoreless streak to 37 innings Saturday against the Angels, throwing eight shutout innings and allowing only two hits. Kershaw hasn’t given up a run since Wilmer Flores’ RBI single for the Mets on July 3 at Dodger Stadium. He is the first pitcher since Luis Tiant in 1972 to produce multiple single-season scoreless streaks of at least 37 innings as he had a 41-inning streak last season. Kershaw is also the first pitcher since Orel Hershiser in 1988 to have four consecutive starts of at least eight scoreless innings. Finally, he can tie a franchise record of six 200-strikeout seasons in this one, currently held by Hall of Famers Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Kershaw has 192. Cole (14-5, 2.29) for some reason struggles against the Reds with a 6.09 ERA against them this season (three losses) but it’s 1.91 against everyone else. Cole hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a game since June 24, when he allowed five earned runs, of course, to the Reds.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 8-3 in Kershaw’s past 11 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 7-0 in Cole’s past seven at home vs. teams with a winning record. The “over/under” has gone under in seven straight Kershaw starts. The under is 5-2-1 in Cole’s past eight at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Umm, under! Take the Dodgers.
♦ Astros at A’s (-120, 6.5)
If Kershaw and Cole weren’t facing off, this pitching matchup would be the marquee one of the night as it’s All-Stars and AL Cy Young candidates. The leader for the latter is likely Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (13-5, 2.35). He had a shaky outing on July 26 in Kansas City but was back to normal last time out against Arizona, allowing two runs over six innings. The guy has gone at least six innings in a pretty incredible 33 straight starts, the longest in Astros history and currently in MLB. Keuchel is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts against Oakland this season. Coco Crisp (if he plays as he was scratched Wednesday with neck stiffness) is 7-for-19 with three doubles off him. Brett Lawrie is just 2-for-15. It’s Sonny Gray (11-4, 2.12) for Oakland. The A’s have won his past three, and he has allowed only three runs over his past 23 innings. He has faced Houston once in 2015, allowing three runs over five innings on May 19. Jose Altuve is 5-for-14 off him. Colby Rasmus is 2-for-6 with a double and RBI.
Key trends: The Astros are 8-0 in Keuchel’s past eight on five days of rest. They are 1-5 in his past six on the road. The A’s are 2-5 in Gray’s past seven at home vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Keuchel’s past six vs. teams with a losing record. The Astros are 6-0 in his past six against Oakland.
Early lean: Under! Take Oakland.
♦ Mets at Rays (+107, 6.5)
New York can do no wrong right now and brings an MLB-best six-game winning streak into this one. And it’s another fine pitching matchup. With all due respect to Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ ace right now is Jacob deGrom and he goes here. DeGrom (10-6, 2.09) hasn’t lost since July 2. He has allowed only four earned runs over his past four starts. He’s No. 2 in the majors in ERA and third in opponents’ batting average at .199. DeGrom has never faced the Rays. It’s Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 2.86) for Tampa. He has given up six earned over his past three starts and is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA at home this season. Odorizzi has never faced the Mets. Reminder that New York will add the DH in this interleague game.
Key trends: The Mets are 5-1 in deGrom’s past six on the road. The Rays are 5-2 in Odorizzi’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Mets’ past six following an off day. The under is 5-1 in Odorizzi’s past six at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Under again! Go Mets.
♦ Marlins at Braves (+132, 6)
Miami’s season is lost, but I look for a bounce back next season for the Marlins because ace Jose Fernandez (4-0, 2.13) looks back to pre-Tommy John surgery form. And, of course, if Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy, which he can’t seem to do; he remains on the DL. Fernandez blanked the Padres on four hits over six innings last time out, but then again he’s unbeatable at home. Literally. In two road starts this year he is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA. First look at Braves in 2015. Atlanta’s Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.59) has been inconsistent this season but is still only 24. Last time out he was good, allowing two runs over seven innings at the Phillies. Teheran is 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts this year against Miami. Dee Gordon is 5-for-14 off him. Christian Yelich is 6-for-20 with an RBI.
Key trends: The Marlins are 10-3 in Fernandez’s past 13 vs. teams with a losing record. The Braves are 11-1 in Teheran’s past 12 on Friday. The over is 4-1 in Fernandez’s past five on the road. The over is 6-1-1 in Teheran’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Trend here … under. Take Atlanta.
♦ Phillies at Padres (-169, 6.5)
Philadelphia could activate second baseman Chase Utley off the DL on Friday, assuming it didn’t on Thursday (unlikely with a day game). He has been out since June 22 with an ankle injury. Utley has lost his starting job at second base so I could see him being an August trade possibility if he shows at least a little something and agrees to waive his no-trade clause. But Utley may want to finish his career as a Phillie. It’s rookie Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.38) for the Phillies here. He remains on a bit of a pitch count as the Phillies are handling their future ace with kid gloves. This will be his first look at San Diego. The Padres’ James Shields (8-4, 3.74) hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his past four, but San Diego has lost three of them. He hasn’t faced the Phillies this season. Utley, if he plays, is 2-for-6 with an RBI career off him.
Key trends: The Phillies have won six straight series openers. The Padres are 2-9 in Shields’ past 11. The over is 4-0 in his past four series openers.
Early lean: Have to go under again. Take the Padres.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Giants @ Cubs
Vogelsong is making first start since July 11; he is 1-1, 3.74 in his last four starts (over 2-2).
Lester is 2-0, 1.61 in his last three starts; under is 9-0-1 in his last ten.
Giants won four of last six games with Chicago; seven of last ten in series stayed under the total. SF is 6-5 in its last 11 games; over is 4-1-1 in its last six. Cubs won seven of their last eight games (under 5-2-1).
Dodgers @ Pirates
Kershaw is 4-0, 0.00 in his last four starts (34 IP); his last seven stayed under.
Cole is 3-2, 3.05 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
Dodgers lost six of last eight games with Pittsburgh; over is 6-3 in last nine series games. LA won six of its last seven games (over 4-2-1). Pirates won six of last nine games; three of last four stayed under.
Rockies @ Nationals
de la Rosa is 1-1, 6.26 in his last five starts; last three went over.
Zimmerman is 0-2, 5.09 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Colorado lost five of its last six games with Washington; Rockies lost six of last eight games; four of their last five went over. Nationals lost five of last six games, with last four going over the total.
Marlins @ Braves
Fernandez is 4-0, 2.13 in his last six starts; seven of his last nine went over.
Teheran is 1-2, 4.55 in his last five starts; his last four at home stayed under.
Braves lost eight of last 11 games (over 5-0-2 in last seven). Marlins lost 11 of last 13 games (over 5-1 in last six). Atlanta won eight of last ten games with Miami; five of last six went over the total.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Lynn is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten.
Cravy is 0-2, 2.77 in his two starts (under 2-0); Brewers scored total of three runs in the two games.
Cardinals won six of last eight games with Milwaukee (under 5-3); they won three of last four games overall (under 4-0). Brewers won last three games, scoring 22 runs (under 3-1 in last four).
Reds @ Diamondbacks
Iglesias is 1-2, 5.72 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.
Anderson was 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts before going on DL; five of his last eight starts stayed under the total.
Cincinnati won six of last nine games with Arizona (under 6-2 in last eight); Reds lost three of last four games; under is 8-1-1 in their last ten. Arizona won seven of last eleven games; eight of its last nine went over.
Phillies @ Padres
Nola is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts (over 2-1).
Shields is 1-1, 2.35 in his last four starts; under is 2-1-1 in his last four home outings.
Philly lost three of last four games with San Diego (over 4-1 in last five); they lost three of last four games overall– over is 3-1-2 in their last six. Padres lost last three games, allowing 22 runs; eight of their last nine went over.
American League
Red Sox @ Tigers
Kelly is 1-2, 9.87 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Norris is 1-0, 1.04 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under.
Red Sox won three of last four games with Detroit; under is 5-3-1 in last nine series games. Boston lost three of last four games overall (under 3-1). Tigers won three of last four games- three of their last four stayed under.
Blue Jays @ Bronx
Dickey is 3-0, 1.54 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Eovaldi is 6-0, 3.06 in his last eight starts; three of his last four went over.
Blue Jays won five in row, eight of last nine games; they scored 18 runs in last two games, but three of their last five went under. Toronto won three of last four games with Bronx, which won four of its last six (under 5-2 in last 7).
Twins @ Indians
Pelfrey is 0-0, 2.03 in his last two starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Anderson is 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts (under 4-3 in his starts).
Minnesota won three of last four games with Cleveland; seven of last nine in series went over total. Twins lost last five games, outscored 30-13; five of their last seven games stayed under. Indians lost four of their last five games; six of their last seven stayed under.
White Sox @ Royals
Danks is 2-0, 3.18 in his last four starts; his last three on road went over.
Volquez is 2-2, 2.77 in his last four starts (under 3-1).
Chicago lost three of last four games with Kansas City; under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. White Sox lost five of last seven games overall; their last ten all went over the total. Royals lost six of last eight games; three of their last four stayed under.
Orioles @ Angels
Gausman is 1-0, 1.23 in his last two starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Heaney is 5-1, 2.04 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over.
Orioles lost three of last four games with the Angels; eight of last nine went under the total. Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten games; over is 4-2-1 in its last seven. Halos lost seven of last nine games (over 6-4 in last ten).
Astros @ A’s
Keuchel is 5-2, 2.36 in his last seven starts (under 4-3).
Gray is 1-0, 2.17 in his last three starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.
Houston won seven of last eight games with Oakland; five of last seven went over the total. Astros lost three of last four games overall; they’re 3-13 in last 16 road games. A’s lost ten of last 14 games, losing last two days in extra innings; nine of those 14 games stayed under.
Rangers @ Mariners
Hamels is 1-1, 7.43 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Iwakuma is 0-1, 3.80 in his last three starts; four of his last five went under.
Seattle won its last five games with Texas; seven of last eight stayed under. Mariners won three of last four games; their last three went over. Rangers are 7-1 in last eight games; three of their last four stayed under.
Interleague
Mets @ Rays
deGrom is 2-0, 1.44 in his last four starts; five of his last seven went under.
Odorizzi is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; six of his last nine stayed under.
Mets won five of last seven games with Tampa Bay; last four games in series went over total. New York won its last six games, allowing 13 runs; three of last four went over. Tampa Bay won three of its last fourl five of their last six went over the total.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
SF-Chi– Vogelsong 9-7; Lester 11-10
LA-Pitt– Kershaw 12-9; Cole 15-6
Col-Wash– de la Rosa 9-9; Zimmerman 13-9
Mia-Atl– Fernandez 5-1; Teheran 12-10
StL-Mil– Lynn 12-8; Cravy 0-2
Cin-Az– Ig1esias 3-5; Anderson 7-11
Phil-SD– Nola 2-1; Shields 11-12 (2-9 last 11)
Bos-Det– Kelly 6-11; Norris 3-3, 1-0
Tor-NY– Dickey Eovaldi 14-7
Min-Clev– Pelfrey 10-10 (1-6 last 7); Anderson 4-3
Chi-KC– Danks 10-10; Volquez 15-7
Balt-LAA– Gausman 3-3; Heaney 6-1
Tex-Sea– Hamels 10-11, 0-1; Iwakuma 4-5
Hst-A’s– Keuchel 15-7; Gray 14-8
NY-TB– deGrom 13-7; Odorizzi 9-8
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
SF-Chi– Vogelsong 3-16; Lester 7-22
LA-Pitt– Kershaw 4-21; Cole 7-21
Col-Wash– de la Rosa 6-18; Zimmerman 7-22
Mia-Atl– Fernandez 1-6; Teheran 8-22
StL-Mil– Lynn 7-20; Cravy 0-2
Cin-Az– Ig1esias 1-8; Anderson 7-18
Phil-SD– Nola 2-3; Shields 6-22
Bos-Det– Kelly 8-17; Norris 3-6
Tor-NY– Dickey Eovaldi 7-21
Min-Clev– Pelfrey 3-20; Anderson 2-7
Chi-KC– Danks 7-20; Volquez 4-22
Balt-LAA– Gausman 2-6; Heaney 0-7
Tex-Sea– Hamels 6-21; Iwakuma 4-9
Hst-A’s– Keuchel 4-22; Gray 7-22
NY-TB– deGrom 6-20; Odorizzi 5-17
Lester is red-hot on the ‘Under’
Stephen Campbell
Chicago Cubs left-hander Jon Lester has been a fantastic play for bettors banking on low totals this season.
The Under has gone 9-1 in Lester’s 10 outings. Ryan Vogelsong is the probable starter for San Francisco against Lester’s Cubs in MLB action friday.
As of this writing, the total was off the board.
Nationals, Zimmermann have owned Rockies
Stephen Campbell
Washington Nationals backers have enjoyed seeing Jordan Zimmermann on the bump versus the Colorado Rockies lately, as the Nats have won six out of the righty’s last seven starts against the Rox.
Zimmermann is scheduled to get the nod Friday in a matchup with Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies.
Washington is presently -158 on the moneyline for the clash.
Braves glad Teheran’s Friday start is at home
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE
ATLANTA — Right-hander Julio Teheran has been almost unbeatable at Turner Field this year.
The Atlanta Braves right-hander, who will start Friday against the Miami Marlins, is 7-6 with a 4.59 ERA overall. However, his results are quite different depending on whether he is pitching at home or on the road.
At Turner Field, Teheran is 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 10 starts. He has 60 strikeouts and 21 walks in 64 2/3 innings at home. In his most recent home start, July 22 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Teheran allowed three runs and struck out 11 in seven innings.
In 12 road starts, Teheran is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA. He has 53 strikeouts and 28 walks in 66 2/32 innings. In his last start on Aug. 2, Teheran pitched seven innings and allowed only two runs while striking out seven at Philadelphia. It was his first road win since Opening Day.
“He looked the old Julio,” Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “I know that he and Roger (McDowell, Atlanta’s pitching coach) had worked on some stuff in his side session, and he was really happy with himself.”
If Teheran is to make more progress toward becoming the sort of consistent starter the Braves expect, it couldn’t come against a more favorable opponent. Teheran has made 10 starts against the Marlins, going 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 63 2/3 innings.
DAVE ESSLER
MLB FRIDAY
Dodgers-Pirates: Dodgers had a tougher series with the Phillies and their bullpen just is terrible lately, so it’s all on Kershaw. I do realize that he’s got this streak going, but – it has been against the Angels (who don’t see him), the Mets (twice), Philadelphia, and Washington. The Pirates are obviously a far better offensive team. So, getting Cole at home at that price is the only bet I could make, although the Dodgers (in a limited sample) have some knocks against him. If the totals’ going to stay at 6 then backing the Pirates and the better pen is simply the “+EV” thing to do.
Nationals-Rockies: Another situation that tempts me to take Colorado for no other reason than they’re rested, and Arizona has given the Nationals all they wanted. DeLaRosa can be very good in a larger park (like Washington’s, for example) and his numbers bear that out. The Nats have hit him a bit, but if they Nats aren’t hitting – it’s about “now” for me. Zimmerman just hasn’t been that dominant this season, but no trusting the Rockies bullpen and trying not to back teams that just have no reason to be there, if we took Colorodo the F5 +.5 might be the play.
Miami-Atlanta: I guess getting Fernandez at only -135 is the right thing to do, or is it. He’s obviously fresh given his time off, but also threw 112 pitches last game and that’s just not a good thing very often, unless your David Price who does that every outing. Teheran is the Braves best option and at home a very good one. It’s not like the Fish have the probability of superior run support behind Jose, so I could make a great argument for the Braves RL.
Brewers-Cardinals: Milwaukee’s bats woke up on Thursday and there’s probably no other team in the league that’d rather beat them than the Brewers. Travel day/night for the Cardinals after the Red game, and although they won they had all of five hits. Lance Lynn or not, I can’t take the Cardinals as tough as it might be to bet ON Lohse. The Cardinals bullpen ha been used a fair bit in Cincinnati, too.
Reds-DBacks: Arizona in a tough travel spot, flying back from Washington, and a long trip – from Seattle to Houston to Washington. That would probably preclude me from taking them, even against Iglesias. Pollock and Goldschmidt were rested in the last game in DC – but that’s probably not enough. Iglesias looked good against the Pirates, but threw 108 pitches. Ray – you just never know. The Reds – you just never know. We’ve been far more profitable waiting to see how the first game of a certain series plays out and then firing.
Padres-Phillies: With the way the Phillies have been hitting, yet losing, I am surprised to even see Shields at -160 here, given that the Padres are getting their ass kicked in Milwaukee and flying back home, and they appear to be one of the teams that’s mentally on the way out. I don’t care who is pitching for the Phillies (yes, I do know who is pitching) but it would be the Phillies, and if they want to leave -160 out there then the RL ought to be affordable.
Boston-Detroit: Can we really think about betting on Boston and Joe Kelly? I doubt I can, but also doubt I could lay the price for the Tigers, because let’s not forget if this game comes down to a bullpen issue. Any decision would be based of of how Boston plays in the Bronx and what mindset they leave with. As the season winds down, the mindset will be more important to me than it was in the first half, because in theory you’re getting 100% every night til the break. Now, you just don’t know if a team falls behind early if they give a sh*t.
Yankees-Jays: The Yankees are becoming a very public team of late now that they’re winning and somewhat healthy, while the Jays have fallen out of favor a bit since last week and of course are now on the road. Eovaldi’s claim to fame has been is performances at home this season, but I’d be really concerned about him throwing 117 pitches last game. For him, that’s a ton. But, seeing how Jose and Edwin have never seen him, perhaps a F5 under here. Dickey has looked good, but against the Royals who don’t see him and the Phillies, as well as at Oakland where his flyballs are more likely to stay in the park. Best bullpen probably wins, and we’ll see how they fare Thursday.
Cleveland-Minnesota: Indeed the Indians are rested, but does it matter and do they care? No Kipnis and no real heart from day one with this team. Yes, they’ll likely fare better against a RHP but Pelfrey is sneaky at times. The Twins play late in Toronto and travel, so they’ll have that disadvantage, but they’ll try and that’s all I want my money behind at this point, if we’re playing teams that are out of contention.
White Sox-Royals: Well, another rested team against a team that lost on Thursday in tough fashion and is flying home. It;s be tough to back Danks, but he IS a lefty and that’s been, as we know, the Kansas City vulnerability. The Royals’ pen has been imploding of late, so IMO it’s all up to Volquez, who the White Sox beat a few weeks back. Danks, however, has been terrible on the road. Real terrible. But, Danks has been REAL good against the Royals. I could easily see firing the White Sox RL here, and no chance of laying -160 or more with the Royals – not in this spot.
Orioles-Angels: Normally we’d (I’d) look to back the Orioles against a LHP, but the O’s have been very inconsistent lately. All season, actually, and they may be coming to the conclusion that with the Jays between them and the Yankees in the AL East, and the Rays right there with them, that’s it likely a futile effort from here on out. Gausman has been awful in three road starts (NYY, MIN, TOR) so I doubt I could go Baltimore here. The Angels struggled to beat Cleveland and it’s getting close to make or break time for them, and getting swept at Houston may have done something to their psyche, at least in the short term. Under.
Oakland-Houston: Keuchel has had his vulnerabilities lately, especially on the road. It almost doesn’t matter how well the Astros have or have not hit Gray, getting him at home at that number is just a done deal, unless something happens in Thursday’s game that changes my thinking.
Mets-Rays: Mets are going to get a DH, obviously, but the downside there is DeGrom doesn’t get to pitch around a pitcher. Not overly sure it matters and since I cannot see a ton of runs being scored here – lineups will be the key for me. Cuddyer is supposed to be back – we shall see.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS
Play On – Road teams (BALTIMORE) terrible speed team – averaging 0.35 or less SB’s/game on the season, in August games
98-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.3% | 43.8 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% | -2.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX are 10-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in Road games in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was: CHI WHITE SOX (5.8) , OPPONENT (2.7)
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | NEW YORK at CHICAGO
Play Under – Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
112-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )
6-7 this year. ( 46.2% | -1.7 units )
WNBA | NEW YORK at CHICAGO
Play Against – Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights
44-31 since 1997. ( 58.7% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | MINNESOTA at PHOENIX
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good foul drawing team – attempting >=20 free throws/game
402-258 since 1997. ( 60.9% | 118.2 units )
4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | -2.6 units )
Game of the Day: Alouettes at Redblacks
♠ Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks (+2, 46.5)
The Ottawa Redblacks look to take sole possession of first place in the East Division when they host the Montreal Alouettes on Friday. The Redblacks have already surpassed their win total from a year ago following an impressive 29-26 overtime victory over the Calgary Stampeders on July 24.
Ottawa has won two home games after dropping five of its seven contests at TD Place last season and hopes to beat the Alouettes in back-to-back meetings for the first time in franchise history, and earn the tiebreaker over its division rival in the process. Montreal is left to pick up the pieces after letting a 17-point lead slip away in a 25-22 loss to the Stampeders in Week 6. The last-placed Alouettes are 1-3 in games decided by four points or fewer this season and their three losses have come by a combined nine points, but can create a four-team logjam at the top of the division by beating the Redblacks for the fourth time in the last five meetings. “We have to learn how to win,” Montreal wide receiver S.J. Green told reporters. “We have to execute in critical moments.”
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS, ESPN2
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened as a pick’em, but has since shifted to OTT +2. The total has not changed since opening at 46.5.
INJURY REPORT: Alouettes – SB Justin Caliste (Out-Suspension), WR Chad Johnson (Out-Suspension), QB Kyle Quinlan (Out-Suspension) Redblacks – QB Brock Jensen (Ques-Undisclosed), WR Khalil Paden (Ques-Undisclosed), WR Chris Williams (Out-Undisclosed)
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS, 0-5 O/U): Slotback Fred Stamps should return to the lineup Friday after missing the loss to Calgary to attend to an urgent personal matter at home in Louisiana. Rakeem Cato continues to impress after being thrust into a starting role as he completed 20-of-32 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown against the defending Grey Cup champions. Montreal coach Tom Higgins said defensive end Michael Sam will make his season debut at some point in August but it’s not known whether he will be activated for Friday’s contest.
ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Ottawa released Delbert Alvarado, who missed two field goals against the Stampeders and brought in Canadian kicker Chris Milo as his replacement. “We just felt we needed to be better and we hope Chris can be that guy,” Redblacks GM Marcel Desjardins told reporters. “What happened in the last game just wasn’t good enough.” Kick returner/wide receiver Chris Williams has lived up to the hype after returning to Canada from a two-year stint in the NFL as he’s ranked third in the CFL with 432 receiving yards, and has 14 receptions for 252 yards in his last two games.
TRENDS:
*Alouettes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
*RedBlacks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
*Under is 11-5-1 in RedBlacks last 17 games overall.
CONSENSUS: 50/50 on the spread with 57.3 percent on the under.
See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
Lookahead spot
Things are heating up north of the border. Since making the biggest splash in the majors during the trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays have played like World Series contenders and ride a 7-1 winning clip into Thursday’s series finale with the Minnesota Twins.
However, Toronto could get caught looking past this matchup with Minnesota and to Friday’s series opener with the New York Yankees. A series win over the Bronx Bombers would solidify the Jays’ place as the team to beat in the AL East, with Toronto 5.5 games back of New York in the standings as of Wednesday. That eagerness to test this revamped roster against the Yankees could open up Toronto for a letdown spot against the Twins Thursday.
Schedule spot
Keeping things in Toronto, the CFL’s Argonauts make their Rogers Centre debut this weekend hosting Saskatchewan in their first official home game of the 2015 season. Thanks to the Pan Am Games taking over the Big Smoke, the Argos were on the road for their first five games, including a season-opening “home game” against Edmonton in Fort McMurray, Alberta.
Toronto has done well for facing sure a tough and quirky challenge to start the season, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Argos got caught looking ahead to the comforts of home last week in Hamilton, losing 34-18 as 3.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers have pegged Toronto as a 9.5-point favorite at home to the winless Rough Riders Saturday.
Letdown spot
The Texas Longhorns are a program in flux as the 2015 college football campaign gets closer. The Horns enter Year 2 under Charlie Strong and while they are still a very capable and talented program, Texas is a far cry from its national title days.
For Strong, showing the Longhorns can compete against the Big 12 elite is imperative to the growth of this program – even if that means just one marquee win. And that entails taking down the likes of TCU or hated rival Oklahoma, who highlight Weeks 5 and 6 for Texas. go to askthebookie. That back-to-back gauntlet is followed by a bye week then a home game against Kansas State. If Texas can’t stand its ground against the Horned Frogs or Sooners, Strong may lose his grip on this program and it’s players, lining up a letdown in Week 8.
Coach Fletcher’s
Friday Scouting Edge
4:05 pm Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
Zimmerman Hopes to Continue Mastery Over Colorado
The Washington Nationals finally won a big game yesterday beating the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-3. For the moment they didn’t fall any farther behind the Mets in the chase for the NL East crown. Jordan Zimmerman goes Friday. Zimmerman is 8-7 with a 3.54 era on the season. His problem has been the long ball. He has allowed 7 round trippers in his last 6 games. The Mets roughed him up for 3 bombs in a single game. The arrival of the Rockies was great news for Zimmerman. In 8 starts against Colorado Zimmerman is 5-0 with a 2.20 era. Five Rockies are hitting .300 or more versus Zimmerman with DJ LeMahieu leading the way at .625. Nolan Arenado is the only Rockie to take Zimmerman deep.
4:05 pm Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Plusses and Minuses for Both Sides in AL East Showdown
The Toronto Blue Jays have not made the playoffs for 22 years. They have players younger than that. With their offense in beast mode, Toronto hopes to make up some ground in this series. That may not be easy to do. With 13 games left between the 2 clubs this season, time is getting short and the NYY have dominated the series between these 2 teams. The Yanks have won 4 consecutive series since 2011 and 12 of 14 series since 2001. Toronto has one plus going for them in the starting pitcher R.A. Dickey. The veteran knuckleballer has plenty of experience with the Yankees, starting 12 times against them and pitching in relief 6 times. Dickey has been pretty good versus the Bombers going 7-3. Dickey is 6-10 for Toronto with a 4.06 era. Only 2 Yankees, Jacoby Ellsbury and Garrett Jones, are hitting above .300 against Dickey. The Yankees go with Nathan Eovaldi, 11-2 with a 4.30 era. However, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitziki are the only Jays that have hit better than .300 against Eovaldi.
4:08 pm Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Red Sox Stick with Kelly in Rotation Despite Problems
The Red Sox started 3 consecutive rookie pitchers this week. A solid starting rotation isn’t one of their strengths. Right hander Joe Kelly goes to the bump Friday. Kelly is 3-6 with a bulging 6.11 era. Kelly hasn’t made it through 6 innings in 5 consecutive starts. In his last 4 starts Kelly has a horrific 9.35 era. He’s lasted 5 innings or less in 8 starts. In his last start against Tampa Bay, Kelly made it through 5 innings giving up 5 runs and 9 hits. In his previous start the White Sox touched him up for 4 runs and 7 hits in 3 1/3 innings. Kelly has not faced the Tigers yet in his career. The Tigers counter with recently acquired Daniel Morris whose Tiger debut was a 7 1/3 inning success where he gave up only 4 hits and 1 run.
6:40 pm Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Is Chase Anderson Ready to Return?
This will be Anderson’s first start since he went to the disabled list on July 19. He was taken out of the rotation due to inflammation in his right triceps. Anderson and the team hope he’s cured his problem. Prior to his time on the disabled list, Anderson was hit hard. In his last 5 starts before being shelved, Anderson’s era was a hefty 9.12. Anderson’s career mark is 13-11 with a 4.19 era and a 1.33 whip. This year Chase is 4-4 with a 4.37 era which was seriously affected by those last 5 starts. Anderson’s numbers are very consistent so we should get a good idea if he has recovered. He’s 1-2 this year with a 4.53 era in 8 starts. At night he is 3-4 with a 4.33 era. He was at his best in May when he was 1-0 in 6 starts with an era of just 2.65. In fact, after his June 17th start, before the 5 game implosion, Anderson was sitting at a 2.84 era in 79 1/3 innings. In an odd move, the D-backs opened up a spot for Anderson by dropping Zack Godley to Double-A. Godley was 3-0 with Arizona with a 1.50 era in 18 innings of work. Arizona also recalled Allen Webster who had been 1-1 with a 7.11 era in 19 innings.
7:05 pm Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Pitcher’s Duel Deluxe Tonight in Oakland
Two of MLB’s better pitchers face off in Oakland. Dallas Keuchel, 13-5 with a 2.35 era goes up against the A’s Sonny Gray, 11-4 with a 2.12 era. Keuchel has done something fairly incredible for the Astros. He’s pitched at least 6 innings in 33 consecutive starts. That’s a franchise record and the longest such streak in the MLB currently. Dallas has gone 5-2 with a 2.36 era in his last 7 starts and 9-5 with a 2.82 era in his last 15 starts. He is 9-2 with a 2.36 era at night. His only vulnerability, and it isn’t much, is his 3-5 record and 3.66 era on the road. Sonny Gray is 11-4 with a 2.12 era this year and 30-17 with a 2.69 era in his career. He is 3-1 with a 2.47 era in his last 7 and 7-4 with a 2.34 era in his last 15. He’s actually been least effective (for him) at home where he is 3-3 with a 2.69 era. He’s 6-3 with a 2.78 era at night. The total for this one opened at 6.5 but was quickly bet down to 6.
Free Play – Minnesota Twins +130
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Vernon Croy
Take Toronto over New York Yankees (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and R.A. Dickey (6-10, 4.06) has been lights out over his last few starts. The Blue Jays have the most potent lineup in MLB, so run support will not be a problem for Dickey here Friday night. The Yankees have hit just .152 as a team against Dickey the two times they have faced him this season, and Dickey has an ERA of just 1.26 over those 2 starts.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Jason Sharpe
Take #977 Texas (-115) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
I’m looking to bet against the Seattle Mariners starter Mike Montgomery in this one. Montgomery has some decent numbers in his first 12 starts, but I’m not sold on this rookie left-hander. He averages fewer than 7 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and has a FIP a full run higher than his ERA, which means regression is likely coming soon. His ERA is nearly 6.00 in his last 5 starts coming into this game as it appears most are starting to catch up to him. The Texas Rangers have quietly played some decent baseball this season. Most of their success has come from playing well away from home as they sport the best record in the American League on the road this season at 31-24. The Rangers showed their serious about winning this year with the big addition of tonight’s starter Cole Hamels at last weeks trade deadline. Hamels is a proven top-notch starter who carries the big edge here of facing a Mariners offense for the first time this season. This is a huge advantage for any left-handed pitcher and especially a veteran one as crafty as Hamels. Take Texas in this game.
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays + New York Yankees – OVER 9
(System Record: 57-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 57-56-1
Basketball Crusher
Connecticut Sun +2 over Washington Mystics
(System Record: 16-2, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-16-4
Soccer Crusher
Racing Club + Tigre – UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 797-26, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 797-648-123
Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
Baltimore Orioles + Los Angeles Angels – UNDER 7
Tampa Bay Rays +112 over New York Mets
Detroit Tigers + Boston Red Sox – OVER 9
Basketball
Phoenix Mercury PK over Minnesota Lynx
Chicago Sky -5 over New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream +8 over Indiana Fever
PAUL LEINER
100* MLB – Mets -120
100* MLB – Dodgers -140
RIVER CITY SHARPS – MLB
Toronto Blue Jays (+105) Major series in the Bronx this weekend and Dickey gets ball tonight vs. Eovaldi. Yanks have really struggled to score vs. Jays this season, tallying just 16 runs and Dickey has absolutely owned the Yankees. He has gone 4-0, 1.12 ERA in his last six with New York and overall, he is 3-2, 0.92 ERA over his last four starts. Also keep in mind that when the Yanks faced another knuckler this week, Steven Wright of the Bosox, they were held to four hits and struck out nine times. Eovaldi has certainly cooled off after sizzling start and we think the visitors are the right play here
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) Kershaw at the cheap price (by his standards) and coming off shaky start. Meanwhile, Cole sports 2-0 mark, but 4.50 ERA in his two starts vs. LA. While that’s good, won’t be enough tonight against the Dodgers
Tigers – TT Over 4.5 (N/A) Joe Kelly has basically been on auto-fade for the Sharps over the past couple months…hell, all season! 0-3, 6.88 ERA over last seven roadies and over his past five starts, he is sporting an 8.06 ERA and opponents are hitting .357 off him…’nuff said!
Mets/Rays – Under 6.5 (-115) While DeGrom has been awesome, some folks may not realize how dominant Odorizzi has been for the Rays. Consider this…In his seven home starts, he has given up none or one earned run six times! He also has a 1.41 home ERA…Maybe we’re stating the obvious here, but just think runs are going to be hard to come by tonight at the Trop
Royals – TT Over 4 (N/A) We know Danks has been better of late, but most of that recent form is at home. Really, he’s been terrible as ever on the road, where he is 0-2, 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. Royals bats alive tonight in KC
Oakland A’s (+105) Elite pitching matchup and took a look at the Under, but digging into the numbers, you will see that Keuchel has been far from dominant on the road. In fact, he has a 1-5 record with a 4.87 ERA over his last six roadies and winless against these A’s, going 0-1, 3.32 ERA in three career starts. We will side with Gray, who has allowed just one run in his last 16 innings of work.
Seattle Mariners (-110) This isn’t as much a fade of Hamels as support of Iwakuma, who has been very good lately for these Mariners. He also has enjoyed good success vs. the Rangers, posting a 4-0 mark with a sterling 2.62 ERA in his five career starts vs. the Rangers