Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday, April 10, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
Could be a long season in Tampa Bay. The Rays have some good young pitching, but a couple of them remain out with injuries. It’s the offense that looks to be a problem, and the team is going to struggle even more to score for the next two weeks or so. The Rays are expected to put their primary designated hitter John Jaso on the disabled list perhaps on Thursday. He injured his wrist on head-first slide into second base during Monday’s season opener, but it’s not overly serious. The team did put first baseman James Loney on the DL on Wednesday with an upper-body injury. Upper-body injury? Is this hockey? Here are five interesting games on Friday.
Tigers at Indians (-106, 8.5)
Most expect the Tigers and Indians to be the top two teams in the AL Central, although I still like the White Sox to make some noise. This is the home opener for the Tribe after finishing a series in Houston on Thursday. New Tiger Alfredo Simon gets his first start, and he was great in the first half last season with Cincinnati, named to the All-Star team, and terrible after. I’m pretty confident he’s more the second-half guy as Simon also was bombed in spring training. Simon did face the Tribe once in 2014, taking the loss in allowing five runs in five innings. If the Tigers are in a save situation, it will be Joakim Soria for a while as Joe Nathan was placed on the DL. Cleveland’s Zach McAllister (4-7, 5.23) regressed badly last season after a good 2013. He won the No. 5 job this spring. McAllister was 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in 16.2 innings vs. Detroit last year. Victor Martinez is 9-for-18 with a homer and seven RBIs off him.
Key trends: Cleveland is 1-7 in its past eight series openers. It is 2-9 in McAllister’s past 11 starts. Detroit is 6-1 in its past seven in Cleveland. The “over/under” has gone over in 10 of the past 12 meetings there.
Early lean: Take the Tribe (although monitor the status of injured star outfielder Michael Brantley) because I have no faith in Simon; go with any Martinez hitting props and lean over the total.
Cubs at Rockies (-128, 10.5)
Break up the Rockies! They were supposed to be pretty lousy again this season and maybe they still will be. But Colorado sits atop the NL West with a 3-0 mark after sweeping a series at Milwaukee to open the week, so this is the home opener. Nolan Arenado, Troy Tulowitzki and Corey Dickerson all had big series against the Brewers, and all three rake at home (all Rockies do). Originally ace Jorge De La Rosa was to start the home opener, but he’s dealing with groin tightness, so the start goes to lefty Tyler Matzek. Last year as a rookie he was a pretty solid 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA at Coors Field. He faced the Cubs once at Wrigley in relief and allowed a run, hit and a walk in two-thirds of an inning in taking the loss. Chicago goes with lefty Travis Wood, who beat out Edwin Jackson for the No. 5 spot. Wood was a disappointing 8-13 with 5.03 ERA last year after a very good 2013. Tulo is 0-for-5 career off Wood.
Key trends: The Cubs are 1-6 in their past seven against a lefty. They are 3-14 in Wood’s past 17 on the road against teams with a winning record. The Rockies are 2-5 in Matzek’s past seven series openers. The under is 5-1 in Matzek’s past six starts. The Cubs are 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
Early lean: Rockies and over even though Cubs struggled on offense in opening series vs. Cardinals.
Red Sox at Yankees (-114, 7.5)
I’m telling you right now that I won’t be previewing every Red Sox-Yankees game this season — I’m so tired of that ESPN-hyped rivalry and frankly it’s not what it used to be with New York looking mediocre at best again. Boston might be good. Of course this game is nationally televised, on the MLB Network. Both starting pitchers are new to their teams. It’s former Diamondbacks lefty Wade Miley for Boston. Miley, who already has signed a three-year extension with the Sox, was 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA on a bad team in 2014. He didn’t face the Yankees. New York goes with Nathan Eovaldi, who was acquired in trade from the Marlins. Eovaldi was not good last year, going 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA. He didn’t face Boston.
Key trends: New York is 6-0 in its past six against a lefty. Boston is 1-4 in the past five meetings. The over is 6-2 in the previous eight.
Early lean: Yankees and over.
Giants at Padres (+110, 7)
Obviously I would never try to predict a no-hitter, but I will remind you that Friday’s Giants starter, Tim Lincecum, has no-hit the Padres each of the previous two seasons. Those San Diego teams were among the worst offensive clubs in the league, and this year’s lineup is much, much different. Entering Thursday, the Padres have scored 14 runs in their first three games this season after not scoring their 14th run until their seventh game last year. The Giants need Lincecum to be at least solid with all the pitching injuries, but Lincecum has been largely lousy the past three seasons. However, he was 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings against the Padres in 2014. San Diego counters with Brandon Morrow in his Padres debut. The injury-plagued Morrow hasn’t thrown more than 54.1 innings since 2012. Morrow had a 4.76 ERA this spring in winning the No. 5 spot.
Key trends: The Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum’s past four in San Diego. They are 0-4 in his past four road starts overall. The over has hit in three of Lincecum’s past five vs. the Padres.
Early lean: Can’t ignore what Lincecum does to Padres, even if many of them are new. Go under.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks (+130, 8.5)
The hottest power hitter in baseball right now is Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has become the first player in league history with five homers in his team’s first three games. On Wednesday night, Gonzalez hit three solo home runs against his former team, the Padres. (go to askthebookie) He will face off against Diamondbacks starter Chase Anderson. He was 9-7 with a 4.01 ERA in 21 starts last year as a rookie. Anderson was 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. Gonzalez was 2-for-6 with a homer and two walks against him. It’s new Dodger Brett Anderson on the mound for L.A. Guy has great stuff but can’t stay healthy. He hasn’t pitched more than 84 innings since 2010 with Oakland. Anderson was 1-3 with a 2.91 ERA in eight starts last year with the Rockies. Only a few Diamondbacks have faced him. Mark Trumbo has a homer and four RBIs in 11 at-bats vs. Anderson.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 9-2 in their past 11 in Arizona. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.
Early lean: Dodgers and under.
2015 BASEBALL
National League
Cubs @ Rockies
Wood is 0-2, 9.35 in his last four starts, three of which went over total.
Matzek is 4-2, 1.55 in his last six starts, five of which stayed under.
Colorado swept Milwaukee in Miller Park to start season; they’ve lost three of last four games with Cubs, who scored two runs in splitting first two games this season.
Nationals @ Phillies
Gonzalez is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five
Williams is 1-2, 4.11 in his last five starts; four of his last six went over.
Washington lost five of last six games with Phillies; under is 4-2-1 in last seven meetings. Both teams lost two of three to start this season.
Cardinals @ Reds
Lackey is 2-1, 2.63 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Marquis is making first start since ’13; he was 0-3, 6.91 in his last five starts that year- seven of his last nine starts went over total.
Cincinnati won its first three games, allowing eight runs. Home side won eight of last ten St Louis-Cincy games; three of last four in this park stayed under.
Mets @ Braves
Niese is 1-1, 1.71 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.
Stults is 1-1, 2.55 in his last three starts; three of his last four home starts went over the total.
Atlanta swept Marlins in Miami to start season; Mets won two of three in Washington. Mets won seven of last ten with Atlanta; under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games.
Pirates @ Brewers
Locke is 1-3, 5.81 in his last five starts, four of which went over.
Fiers is 0-3, 4.00 in his last three starts; Brewers scored three runs in those three games. Seven of his last eight starts stayed under.
Pirates got swept three games in Cincinnati; Brewers lost three in row at home to Colorado to open season. Pittsburgh won four of last six games against the Brewers, with last four staying under.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Oft-injured BAnderson is making first Dodger start; he was 1-0, 1.16 in his last four starts for the Rockies.
CAnderson is 3-1, 3.21 in his last five home starts; over is 8-0-1 in his last nine starts overall.
Dodgers won seven of last eight games with Arizona; six of those eight tilts went over the total. All three LA games this week went over total
Giants @ Padres
Lincecum was 1-2, 11.45 in his last three starts LY.
Morrow is making first start since last May; he was 0-1, 6.39 in his last three starts for Toronto.
San Francisco won three of first four games; Padres lost three of last four; San Diego bullpen threw 10 innings last night. Home side won six of last eight Giant-Padre games, with Giants winning four of last five- three of last four stayed under the total.
American League
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Buehrle is 2-1, 2.83 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Norris is 5-0, 2.41 in his last seven starts; seven of his last ten went over.
Toronto played in Bronx last night, has day game here; they’ve lost five of last seven games with Orioles. Under is 7-1 in last eight series games. both teams won two of first three games this season.
Tigers @ Indians
Simon is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts; six of his last nine starts went over.
McAllister was 0-2, 7.42 in his last three starts LY.
Detroit swept Minnesota three games to start season; they won seven of last eight games with Cleveland– last four went over the total. Indians won two of three in Houston, allowing total of three runs.
Astros @ Rangers
McHugh is 7-0, 1.88 in his last eight starts; five of his last six stayed under.
Holland is 3-0, 2.00 in his last eight starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Home side won eight of last ten Houston-Texas games; seven of last eight in series stayed under the total.
Twins @ White Sox
Milone is 0-1, 11.66 in his last four starts, all of which went over total.
Noesi is 0-3, 5.30 in his last three starts.
Minnesota was outscored 22-1 in losing three straight at Detroit; White Sox were outscored 21-7 in losing three in row at KC. Twins split last ten games with Chicago- over is 7-1 in last eight series meetings.
Red Sox @ Bronx
Miley was 1-4, 3.60 in his last eight starts for Arizona; seven of his last nine starts stayed under the total.
Eovaldi was 0-8, 6.10 in his last nine starts for Miami; under is 4-1-1 in his last six outings (Marlins scored 10 runs in his last seven starts).
Boston lost six of last eight games with Bronx; six of those eight games went over the total.
Royals @ Angels
Vargas is 1-0, 3.52 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over.
Santiago is 1-2, 12.96 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Kansas City won five of last six games against Angels, sweeping LA 3-0 in playoffs last fall. Royals won first three games this season. Angels won two of three in Seattle.
Mariners @ A’s
Walker is 1-3, 2.38 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Pomeranz is 0-2, 3.86 in his last five starts.
Road team won five of last seven Seattle-Oakland games, with six of seven staying under total.
Interleague
Rays @ Marlins
Geltz has pitched in 15 big league games, all in relief (0-1, 2.84); he’s pitched in 241 minor league games but never started one.
Haren was 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts for the Dodgers.
Miami lost three in row to Atlanta to open season; Rays lost two of three at home to Baltimore. Marlins won last four games with Tampa Bay; four of last six series games stayed under the total.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
Play Against – All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) National League team with a poor starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.650 or worse last season
38-18 since 1997. ( 67.9% | 24.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | TAMPA BAY at MIAMI
MIAMI is 15-5 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: MIAMI (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.9)
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: ‘Over’ cashing in National League West
By Doc Sports
Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend’s major-league schedule:
Wild West
The Over was the way to go in the National League West throughout the first three days of the season. As of Thursday afternoon, the five representatives were 12-3 O/U. None had scored fewer than 13 total runs and the Colorado Rockies had crossed the plate 20 times.
Braves’ New World
After cleaning house in the offseason, all the depleted Atlanta Braves did was go out and sweep the Miami Marlins in their opening series. Atlanta has given up only three runs (1-2 O/U) heading into a weekend series with the Mets. The two NL East rivals are 1-6-1 O/U in their last eight head-to-head meetings.
Something’s Gotta Give
In his first Opening Day start with the Boston Red Sox, Clay Buchholz pitched seven scoreless innings at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies while surrendering just three hits and striking out nine. But his next start is coming on Sunday night against the New York Yankees, against whom he went 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA in three starts last season (2-1 O/U).
Pitching Notes
* Look for David Price of the Detroit Tigers to go Under the total again when he takes the mound on Saturday against the Cleveland Indians. The Tigers won each of their first two games this season with shutouts—including one started by Price. The southpaw, who went 8.2 innings and allowed five hits on Monday against the Minnesota Twins, also ended 2014 with three consecutive Unders. Detroit scored 15 runs in its first two games, but the team is facing Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (7.1 innings, two runs at the Houston Astros in his first start) on Saturday.
* Seattle Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez appears to have picked up where he left off in 2014. King Felix gave up only two hits and one run while striking out 10 batters in seven innings during a 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Opening Day. He wrapped up last season with three scoreless outings in his last five. Hernandez is 1-6 O/U in his last seven starts heading into Sunday at the Oakland Athletics.
Hitting Notes
* Los Angeles Dodgers’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez went a ridiculous 10-for-13 with five home runs (three on Wednesday) and seven RBIs in his first three games of the season (all Overs for the Dodgers). This weekend he is going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-1 O/U), who allowed a total of 16 runs in their first three contests.
* Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers went 0-for-11 in his first three games of 2015. He is not alone, either. The Rangers scored a grand total of three runs in their first three games versus Oakland. This weekend’s opponent, Houston, allowed only two runs in its first two games (0-2 O/U).
Totals Streak
San Diego Padres (3-0 O/U): San Diego outdid all of its competition in terms of an offseason spending spree and the offense acted accordingly with 14 runs in its first three games against the Dodgers. Of course, the Padres also gave up 16 total runs. Next up for SD are the San Francisco Giants (2-1 O/U).
Injury Notes
* Detroit traded Max Scherzer to the Washington Nationals this offseason and now the pitching staff is not getting any help. Both starter Justin Verlander (triceps) and closer Joe Nathan (flexor strain) were placed on the disabled list earlier this week.
* Jayson Werth (shoulder) and Denard Span (core surgery) of the Washington Nationals will be on rehab assignments this weekend. Washington (0-2 O/U) scored a total of three runs in its first two games.
Weather Watch
* There are a handful of games that could be affected by thundershowers Thursday. Below are a list of games and percent chance of thundershowers.
Blue Jays at Orioles – 60 percent
Red Sox at Yankees – 75 percent
Nationals at Phillies – 71 percent
Mets at Braves – 70 percent
Umpire Note: N/A
NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, April 10 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
Here’s a statistic for Oklahoma City going into its game on Friday night: the team doesn’t control its playoff destiny for the first time this late in the year since moving from Seattle. When it secured the eighth seed during the 2009-10 season, OKC clinched the postseason berth on April 3. OKC hasn’t finished lower than fourth since. Of the Thunder’s entire 15-man roster, only center Enes Kanter has still been in a playoff race this late into a season (with Utah in 2011-12). Obviously the Thunder want to make the playoffs, but are they really going to beat Golden State in the first round? No chance. So perhaps getting into the draft lottery and having a shot to win it is better for the franchise. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs and have to give their 2015 first-round pick to Houston (protected if 1-3 or 20-30). Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule.
Raptors at Magic (+6, 204.5)
Toronto still has something to play for: potentially the No. 3 seed in the East. It can’t finish lower than fourth as a division champion. The Raptors ended a two-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 92-74 win in Charlotte. Amir Johnson (right ankle sprain) and Kyle Lowry (back spasms) sat out. Johnson was close to playing. I would think the team would get Lowry back soon to get him ready for the playoffs. Orlando upset the Bulls 105-103 on Wednesday for its third straight win, rallying from a 15-point deficit. Victor Oladipo had 23 points and the game-winning layup with 1.5 seconds left. Toronto leads the season series 3-0 and has won 10 straight overall against Orlando.
Key trends: Toronto is 6-1-1 against the spread in the past eight meetings. The “over/under” has gone over in eight of Orlando’s past 10 at home.
Early lean: Like the way the Magic are playing. They end the losing streak vs. Toronto.
Hornets at Hawks (-10.5, 194.5)
Atlanta won a third straight Wednesday, 114-111 in Brooklyn. The Hawks’ Pero Antic and Thabo Sefolosha were arrested early Wednesday morning at a New York club and didn’t play. Not clear if they will here. All-Star Paul Millsap missed a third straight game and is questionable. Charlotte’s season is essentially over as the Hornets likely will be eliminated in this game. The Hornets lost a second straight Wednesday, 92-74 at home to Toronto in a game that wasn’t that close. Al Jefferson (sore right new), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (left ankle sprain), Cody Zeller (sore right shoulder) and Lance Stephenson (right toe sprain) all sat out. You may not see any of them the rest of the way. Charlotte holds a surprising 2-1 series lead. The Hornets defeated the Hawks 122-119 in double overtime on Nov. 7 at Time Warner Cable Arena and 105-100 on Mar. 28 in Charlotte. The Hawks beat the Hornets 105-75 on Nov. 29 in Atlanta.
Key trends: The home team has covered the past four meetings. The over is 9-2 in Atlanta’s past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Hornets have essentially given up, so go Atlanta even with nothing to play for. Over.
Wizards at Nets (TBA)
Washington won 119-90 in Philadelphia on Wednesday for its fourth straight win, holding all foes to 93 points or fewer. The Wizards rested John Wall against the 76ers — he had played 208 straight games — yet still set a franchise record by shooting 65.3 percent. Nene missed a third straight game, but Paul Pierce returned after missing three straight. The Nets enter tied with Boston for the No. 7 and 8 spots in the East. Brooklyn lost a tough one at home to the Hawks on Wednesday, 114-111. That ended the Nets’ five-game home winning streak. Washington leads the season series 2-1 and has won two straight in Brooklyn.
Key trends: Washington is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Assuming the TBA for Wall and to a lesser extent Nene. Don’t think it matters if they play or not. Nets have to have this one.
Celtics at Cavaliers (TBA)
Don’t look for LeBron James in this game or maybe the next. He already has said he’s going to get some rest down the stretch, the Cavs have clinched the No. 2 seed and have nothing to play for. That’s obviously a huge break for Boston as it fights for a playoff spot — these two could meet up in the first round. Cleveland brings a four-game winning streak into this one. Boston won in Detroit 113-103 on Wednesday behind a season-high 34 points from Isaiah Thomas. Cleveland leads the season series, blowing out the Celtics in Ohio and winning a 122-121 thriller in Boston. The teams play again Sunday in Boston.
Key trends: Boston has covered 12 of its past 15 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-2 in Cleveland’s past eight at home.
Early lean: Wait and see who the Cavs play, but I’d take Boston getting anything over probably six points because the Celtics have all the motivation.
Pacers at Pistons (+4.5, 195)
Indiana’s Chris Copeland was stabbed early Wednesday morning at a New York club and obviously won’t play for a while, but he didn’t get many minutes as it was. Indiana won a third straight Wednesday, 102-86 at the Knicks. In his second game of the season, Paul George had 10 points in 15:31 of playing time. Detroit was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 113-103 home loss to Boston on Wednesday. It’s the first time as a head coach Stan Van Gundy will miss the postseason. Greg Monroe did return after missing 11 games and had 19 points and 10 rebounds. Detroit leads the season series 2-1 but has still lost seven of the past 10 vs. Indiana.
Key trends: The road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over has hit in six of those.
Early lean: Pacers and under.
Bucks at Knicks (+9.5, 187.5)
Milwaukee lost 104-99 to Cleveland on Wednesday, and for some reason Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t play a second due to coach’s decision. Coach Jason Kidd hasn’t said why. (go to askthebookie) The “Greek Freak” is a big part of this team’s future, so that’s interesting. Kidd said before the game that Antetokounmpo wouldn’t start, saying only, “Just making a change.” I assume he plays in this one. New York lost by 16 at home to Indiana on Wednesday and needs to keep losing to stay ahead of Minnesota for the worst record in the NBA. Milwaukee leads the season series 3-0 and goes for its first sweep since the 2009-10 season.
Key trends: The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven in New York.
Early lean: Bucks will win but won’t cover. Big on under.
Spurs at Rockets (+3, 206.5)
Second of a home-and-home as on Wednesday in San Antonio the Spurs won their ninth straight (all by double digits) 110-98 over Houston, which had won three in a row. Tony Parker had 27 points — despite being listed as questionable — as the Spurs moved within a half-game of the Southwest Division lead shared by Houston and Memphis. James Harden was held to 16 points and only three after the first quarter. However, Houston has won four in a row at home this series, including beating the Spurs by 17 very early in the season.
Key trends: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four in Houston.
Early lean: Rockets and over.
Suns at Pelicans (-7.5, 195)
Phoenix lost 107-104 in Dallas on Wednesday to be officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Suns can finish no better than a tie with New Orleans and Oklahoma City for the final spot in the Western Conference, and the Pelicans would win that tiebreaker. The Suns were going for their first season sweep of Dallas since 1997-98, the year before Dirk Nowitzki arrived. I worried about a letdown game for New Orleans on Wednesday after beating Golden State on Tuesday, and that indeed happened. The Pelicans were crushed 110-74 by the Grizzlies, their biggest loss of the year. New Orleans still gets the No. 8 seed if it wins out. These teams have split two meetings. In the last one March 19, the Suns tied a franchise record for fewest points in a win, beating the visiting Pelicans 74-72.
Key trends: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in New Orleans’ past four.
Early lean: Probably my favorite line of night — Pelicans and under.
Kings at Thunder (-14.5, 216.5)
Sacramento lost 103-91 in Utah on Wednesday. Rudy Gay sat out again with a concussion, and DeMarcus Cousins missed a second straight. You hear talk he might just be shut down. Gay could play here. The big news from that loss was the two points scored by 7-foot-5 Kings center Sim Bhullar. That was the first bucket of his career. Bhullar is the first player from India to play in the NBA. The injury-ravaged Thunder appear to be running out of gas, having dropped four straight. They were bombed by the Spurs on Tuesday. About the only positive from that was guard Andre Roberson returned after missing seven games with a sprained left ankle. The Thunder probably have to win out to get into the playoffs. OKC had won 12 straight vs. the Kings before a 104-83 loss in Sacramento on Jan. 7.
Key trends: The Kings have covered just one of the past six meetings. The under is 8-1 in the past nine.
Early lean: If Cousins plays, take the points. Don’t if he doesn’t. Over regardless.
Mavericks at Nuggets (TBA)
Dallas ended a two-game losing streak with a 107-104 win over Phoenix on Wednesday. Tyson Chandler had 12 points and 23 rebounds, two off his season high. Rajon Rondo had 12 points and seven assists for Dallas after leaving the last game against Golden State early with a hyperextended left knee. (go to askthebookie) The Mavericks were without Chandler Parsons for the second straight game because of right knee soreness. Rondo might be rested for a few games, while Parsons isn’t a sure thing to return by the end of the regular season. Dallas is locked into the No. 7 seed, so don’t be surprised if Dirk Nowitzki gets this game off. The Nuggets ended a three-game skid with Wednesday’s rout of the Lakers. These teams have split two meetings. Denver has won four straight at home vs. the Mavs.
Key trends: The Mavs are 6-2 ATS in the past eight in Denver. The over is also 6-2 in those eight.
Early lean: Denver wins because the Mavs simply don’t care.
Grizzlies at Jazz (+2.5, 178.5)
Memphis beat the visiting Pelicans by 36 on Wednesday. Forward Jeff Green did play after leaving Saturday’s loss with back issues. He had 15 points and four rebounds. The 40-point lead in the fourth marked the second time in team history the Grizzlies led by at least 40 points. Utah won for the fifth time in six games, 103-91 against the Kings on Wednesday. Derrick Favors scored 18 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and blocked three shots. Gordon Hayward had just four points and will play limited minutes the rest of the way. Utah leads the season series 2-1 after getting swept last year.
Key trends: The road team is 4-1 in the past five meetings and the under is 4-1 in those.
Early lean: That’s the lowest total I’ve seen in a while. Still go under with two fantastic defensive teams.
Timberwolves at Lakers (+6.5, 202.5)
Minnesota lost an eighth straight on Wednesday, 116-91 in Portland and it needs to lose out to have any shot at the most ping-pong balls in the lottery (it probably won’t happen). Half the Wolves roster sat out against the Blazers due to injury, but Kevin Garnett did return after missing 15 games. Andrew Wiggins had 29 points, his fourth straight with at least 20. The Lakers lost a fifth straight Wednesday, 119-101 in Denver. L.A. leads the season series 2-1, winning the last on March 25 in Minnesota on two Jordan Clarkson free throws with 0.3 seconds left in overtime.
Key trends: The Wolves are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 vs. the West. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
Early lean: Lakers and over between two horrific defenses.
NBA
Hot Teams
— Orlando won/covered its last three games (0-4 last four HU). Raptors won four of last six games (2-4 last six AF).
— Indiana won/covered its last three games (4-5 AF).
— Hawks won/covered four of last five games (4-1 last five HF).
— Cavaliers won eight of last nine games (8-2 last ten AF). Boston won four of its last five games (18-4 last 22 AU).
— Nets won seven of last nine games (3-0 last three HF). Wizards won five of last six games (4-7 last 11 AU).
— Pelicans won five of their last seven games (2-8 last ten HF).
— Spurs won/covered their last nine games (5-0-1 last six AF). Houston won seven of its last nine games (3-1 HU).
— Jazz won five of last six games (5-1 last six HU).
Cold Teams
— Pistons lost three of last four games (7-1 last eight HU).
— Bucks lost 10 of last 13 games (5-2 AF). Knicks lost 10 of their last 11 games (9-6 last 15 HU).
— Hornets lost seven of last ten games (11-6 last 17 AU).
— Suns lost seven of their last eight games (6-2 last eight AU).
— Kings lost six of last seven games (5-11 last 16 AU). Thunder lost six of last seven games (3-6 last nine HF).
— Mavericks lost five of last eight games. Denver lost four of its last five games.
— Memphis lost five of last seven games (3-6 last nine AF).
— Minnesota lost its last eight games (2-6 vs spread). Lakers lost seven of last eight games (2-4-1 HF).
Series Records
— Raptors won last 10 games with Orlando (6-1-1 vs spread last 8).
— Pacers won seven of last ten games with Detroit.
— Knicks lost four of last five games with Milwaukee.
— Hornets won three of last four games with Arlanta.
— Cavaliers won both games with Boston this year by 31-1.
— Wizards won five of last six games with Brooklyn.
— Suns won five of last six games with New Orleans.
— Thunder won nine of last ten games with Sacramento (4-1-1 vs spread in last six).
— Spurs lost last four visits to Houston (0-4 vs spread).
— Mavericks lost their last four visits to Denver.
— Grizzlies won five of last seven games with Utah.
— Lakers are 6-4 in last ten games with Minnesota; road team won last three meetings.
Totals
— Three of last four Toronto games went over the total; three of last four Orlando games stayed under.
— Six of last seven Indiana-Detroit games went over total.
— Under is 9-2 in Knicks’ last eleven games.
— Four of last five Charlotte games stayed under; five of last six Atlanta games went over.
— Five of last six Boston games went over the total.
— Last four Washington-Brooklyn games stayed under.
— 13 of last 16 Phoenix games stayed under the total.
— Four of last five Sacramento games went over total; eight of last nine King-Thunder games stayed under.
— Six of last eight San Antonio games stayed under.
— Last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Five of last six Memphis games stayed under total.
— Six of last seven Minnesota games went over total.
Back-to-Backs
— None
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NBA | SAN ANTONIO at HOUSTON
Play Under – Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after a game where they covered the spread, tired team – playing 6 or more games in 10 days
209-125 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.6% | 71.5 units )
50-31 this year. ( 61.7% | 15.9 units )
NBA | MINNESOTA at LA LAKERS
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival
99-51 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.0% | 42.4 units )
13-7 this year. ( 65.0% | -2.8 units )
NBA | SAN ANTONIO at HOUSTON
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games
136-76 since 1997. ( 64.2% | 52.4 units )
13-7 this year. ( 65.0% | 5.3 units )
Game of the Day: Spurs at Rockets
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (+2.5, 205)
The red-hot San Antonio Spurs are looking to rise up the Western Conference as they attempt to complete a back-to-back sweep of the host Houston Rockets on Friday. San Antonio has posted nine straight victories – including a 110-98 win over Houston on Wednesday – and suddenly sits a half-game behind the Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies for second place in the West.
The Spurs are currently tied for fifth with the Los Angeles Clippers after winning 19 of their past 22 games. Point guard Tony Parker starred with 27 points and forward Kawhi Leonard added 20 as San Antonio controlled Wednesday’s game. Leonard has scored 20 or more points in six of the past seven games, while Houston star James Harden was held to 22 points after topping 30 in three of the previous four games as the Rockets took a hurtful loss. “We’ve just got to play our basketball,” Harden told reporters. “Not worry about what’s going on in the standings and things like that. Just focus on ourselves and we’ll be all right.”
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, KENS (San Antonio), ROOT (Houston)
LINE HISTORY: Books offshore and in Vegas opened at Houston +2.5 with a total of 205.
INJURY REPORT: Spurs – G Marco Belinelli (Ques-Grion), C Tiago Splitter (Ques-Calf) Rockets – F Kostas Papanikolaou (Ques-Ankle)
POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-11.2) + Rockets (-8.3) + Homecourt (-3) = Rockets -0.1
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: Of course, you have the defending champs making their case for #2 as the Spurs are 12-1 their last 13 – both straight up and against the spread. Very quietly, the Rockets have covered nearly 60% of their games (3rd best ATS record in the league) as they are 6-1 ATS their last seven as a single-digit fave.” – Covers Expert Bryan Power
ABOUT THE SPURS (53-24 SU, 41-36-3 ATS, 37-42 O/U): Parker didn’t appear limited in the least while making 13-of-18 shots one night after playing just 16 minutes after injuring his right Achilles’ tendon against Oklahoma City. Parker said he had a lot of energy after not playing a lot and he was determined to aggressively carry the team and it showed. “He played a really great floor game,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. “He showed really good patience in distributing the ball, looking for his shots, going to the bucket. He was tough for them to guard.”
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (52-26 SU, 45-33 ATS, 37-41 O/U): Center Dwight Howard (knee) is still on a minutes limit and power forward Donatas Motiejunas has been ruled out for the season due to lower back pain. Motiejunas has missed the last seven games but Houston was holding out hope he might return for the playoffs before it was determined during Wednesday’s re-evaluation that his condition wasn’t improving. Howard is averaging 19 points and 9.5 rebounds and shooting 17-of-25 from the field over the last two games.
TRENDS:
*Spurs are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
*Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games.
*Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
CONSENSUS: 55.56 percent are backing the Spurs -2.5
CRUSHER
Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers -134 over Arizona Dbacks
(System Record: 1-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 1-2
Hockey Crusher
Buffalo Sabres +1.5 over Columbus
(System Record: 90-4, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 90-72-7
Basketball Crusher
Sacramento Kings +14 over OKC
(System Record: 77-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 77-77-4
Soccer Crusher
Crucero Del Norte + Atletico Rafaela – UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 738-25, won last 7 games)
Overall Record: 738-606-110
Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today…
Baseball
Seattle Mariners -101 over Oakland As
Chicago Cubs +110 over Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals -148 over Philadelphia Phillies
Hockey
none
Basketball
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 over LA Lakers
Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Detroit
Utah Jazz +2.5 over Memphis
2014-15 NHL
Hot teams
— Columbus won 10 of their last 11 games. Sabres won three of their last five.
Cold teams
— Islanders lost nine of their last 12 games. Pittsburgh lost six of its last eight.
Series records
— Islanders won their last three games with Pittsburgh.
— Road team won last five Buffalo-Columbus games.
Totals
— Six of last nine Islander-Penguin games went over.
— Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Buffalo-Columbus games.
Back-to-back
— None
EZWINNERS
MLB – (ACTION)
2* (902) Rockies -$120
2* (909) Pirates +$108
2* (914) Padres -$128
2* (927) Mariners +$104
(Lines from Askthebookie.com)
Baseball33
USA: MLB
Cincinnati Reds – St.Louis Cardinals
St.Louis Cardinals -1 @ 1,93
Bet-My-Ticket
AC Ajaccio – Dijon , X2 @ 1,35
Chateauroux – GFC Ajaccio , 2 (+0) @ 1,50
Kerber – Begu , 1 @ 1,53
Total odds: 3.09
Vip-Picks
Sochaux – Creteil
Tip: Sochaux -0.5, 1
Greensoccertips
Karlsruhe x Sty Pauli
Total Goals 2/3
Odd 1,95
Arsenalpick1x2
Vicenza – Avellino
tip: Draw
CHASE DIAMOND
10* MLB ROAD WARRIOR
St. Louis vs. Cincinnati, 04/10/2015 19:10
Money Line: -133 St. Louis
This game features the 1-1 Cardinals at the 3-0 Reds. The Reds are riding high off a 3 game sweep of bitter rival the Pirates. I think the Cards catch the Reds in a little let down spot here add to that the big pitching advantage for the Cardinals as John Lackey who was 14-10 with a 3.82 ERA faces off with Jason Marquis. Marquis was let go by the Phillies if that tells you something. Huge public side taking the Cardinals here but they are the clear cut easy winner. Reds are 6-20 last 26 game 1 of a series. Take the Cardinals here for a easy 10* winner.
See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
Letdown spot
We’re tabbing this NHL regular season finale as our letdown spot, but it could really be dubbed a “motivational” spot, with the Pittsburgh Penguins still playing for postseason positioning and the Buffalo Sabres in full-on tank mode hoping to score projected No. 1 overall pick Connor McDavid in the upcoming NHL Draft.
The Pens visit the Sabres Saturday night and head into Thursday’s action sitting seventh in the Eastern Conference. Pittsburgh isn’t out of the woods when it comes to even making the playoff cut so there’s a lot on the line. Buffalo is at the bottom of the league with 54 points, two less than Arizona. The Sabres, who have actually won three of their last five, could be counting down the seconds to the offseason and laying down for the Pens in order to secure the No. 1 pick.
Lookahead spot
The Toronto Raptors have the Atlantic Division title in the bag but are still trying to secure the third spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They’re currently tied with the Chicago Bulls but hold the tie-breaker heading toward the weekend. Toronto has a huge matchup with the Bulls Saturday night – one that could decide the No. 3 seed – but could get caught looking ahead when it takes the court in Orlando Friday.
The Raptors visit the Magic ahead of that showdown in Chicago. Toronto has won all three meetings with Orlando this season, with an average margin of victory of 10 points in those contests. The Magic did the Raps a favor Wednesday, edging the Bulls by two points and have a taste for the spoiler role now. They’ve won three in a row heading into Thursday, going 3-0 ATS in that span.
Schedule spot
Coors Field is always a tricky stadium to deal with, but it has especially draining effects this early into the season. Fresh off spring training, teams aren’t yet in tip-top shape and the thin air in Denver can quickly leave players lethargic. The Chicago Cubs head up the mountain for the Rockies’ home opening series, starting Friday.
No team in the big leagues smashes more home runs in front of their faithful than Colorado. The Rockies launched a MLB-high 119 balls over the fences at Coors Field and have already done some damage with the long ball, recording five home runs in their season-opening set against the Brewers this week. Colorado won all three road games and scored a combined 20 runs in those three contests. The Cubs and Rockies have gone Over the number in 13 of their last 18 meetings in Coors Field.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Jason Sharpe
Take #918 Cleveland (-145) over Detroit (7 p.m., Friday, April 10)
I love it that baseball is back, and I have posted four of five winning years. Even though it’s only the first week of the MLB season, this is a big game and series for the Cleveland Indians. This should be a good measuring stick for Cleveland as the Indians know that they will most likely have to go through Detroit this year to win the American League Central division. Cleveland sends right-hander Zach McAllister to the mound here in the opener. McAllister was overpowering for the Indians during spring training this year as he struck out more than a batter per inning and had an outstanding 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while posting an ERA below 3.00 overall. The Detroit Tigers come into the season overvalued as the veteran group is another year older. They will send newly-acquired veteran right-hander Alfredo Simon to the hill here on Friday night as the soon-to-be 34 year old comes over to the Tigers from the National League’s Cincinnati Reds. Look for Simon to struggle this year for Detroit as NL pitchers usually do now having to face the much tougher hitting American League and the DH. Add in the fact that a contact pitcher like Simon is going from one of the best defensive teams to one of the worst defensive teams in MLB last year. Look for a fired up Indians team and fans here in this big game for them. Play on Cleveland.
NEWSLETTER NBA Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take Brooklyn over Washington (7:30 p.m., Friday, April 10)
This here is a huge game for the Nets and they continue their push towards the postseason. Brooklyn is getting outstanding play from not only Brook Lopez, but also Deron Williams. I for one was ready to write off D-Will a few years ago and I have been quoted as saying that I think he is terribly overrated, but his play as of late is a proverbial slap in my face. Williams is controlling the tempo of games and playing extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. This is an interesting matchup as the Nets guard play should be able to keep pace with Washington, and I think Lopez will be just too much in the post for Washington. Look for Joe Johnson to also have a big game tonight as the Nets win an extremely important game. Take the home team here.
NEWSLETTER MLB Baseball Prediction From Robert Ferringo
Take Houston (+115) over Texas (8 p.m., Friday, April 10)
I started my MLB season with a bang thanks to Monday’s Opening Day 7-Unit winner. I have another big play on tap for Saturday, and I am going to continue my aggressive approach to these early-season lines. This is going to be a situation where the moneyline is out of whack with what is going on with these teams. The Rangers are still one of the worst teams in the American League. They are not good at all but will likely be favored in their home opener against a team that they have traditionally dominated. But Houston looks like a team that might be better than people think. I feel like this game will mean more to them than to the Rangers, and I think that the Astros are going to have a huge pitching mismatch in their favor. /go to askthebookie. Texas is going with lefty Derek Holland. He’s battled a shoulder issue this spring and only threw eight innings in spring training. The Astros are going with Collin McHugh, who had a breakout 2014 with a 2.79 ERA and 4-to-1 K-to-BB ratio. He was sharp this spring, again posting a 4-to-1 ratio while allowing opponents to hit just .216. I think he’s better than Holland, and I think the Astros lineup is better than Texas’. But because the Rangers are at home they will likely be favored. That makes this a nice value play, and I see the Astros jumping all over their in-state rivals. Take Houston.