NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, March 6 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
Honestly, if I’m the Atlanta Hawks then I’m happy to lose Friday’s home showdown with Cleveland in the game of the night in the NBA (sadly not on national TV). The Hawks are the first team to clinch a playoff spot and are going to be the East’s top seed without question. What they need is to have Cleveland finish with either the No. 2 or 3 seed as opposed to the No. 4 to avoid the Cavaliers until potentially the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs remain the -180 East favorites at Sportsbook with the Hawks next at +280. I think Cleveland will get to No. 2.
Raptors at Hornets (TBA)
Toronto lost 120-112 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday. Raptors All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry was rested for the third straight game. He’s probably not playing here, thus the TBA. Also, Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas was called for a flagrant-1 foul on LeBron James. So that in itself won’t mean a suspension unless the NBA upgrades it. The Hornets won their third straight Wednesday, 115-91 in Brooklyn to move into sole possession of eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte won the only meeting with Toronto, 103-95 on the road Jan. 8. Gerald Henderson had 31 points and Kemba Walker (out still these days but perhaps back next week) 29 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. Lowry had 24 points, seven assists and seven rebounds in the loss. The Hornets’ Lance Stephenson and Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan were out.
Key trends: The home team is 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings. The “over/under” has gone over in four of the past five.
Early lean: If Lowry sits, go Charlotte.
Bulls at Pacers (-6.5, 186.5)
Second of a back-to-back for Chicago, which hosted Oklahoma City on Thursday. Indiana won its third straight Wednesday, blasting the visiting Knicks 105-82. George Hill had a season-high 21 points. The Pacers are now 11-3 with Hill in the starting lineup (he was out injured much of the year) and have the NBA’s best winning percentage (.818) since the start of February. Roy Hibbert got Wednesday off but will return here. Chicago and Indiana have split two low-scoring games (total in 180s for both), each winning on the road.
Key trends: The home team has covered six of the past seven meetings. The under has hit five of the past seven.
Early lean: Pacers and under.
Kings at Magic (+2, 203)
Sacramento lost 112-85 in San Antonio on Wednesday. DeMarcus Cousins had one of his worst games with 14 points and only three rebounds while being in foul trouble. Orlando lost its fourth straight Wednesday, 105-100 against Phoenix despite a career-high 38 points from Victor Oladipo. Rookie forward Aaron Gordon was back after missing the past two games with a sprained right ankle. Orlando won in Sacramento 105-96 on Dec. 6 behind 27 points from Tobias Harris. The Magic were without center Nikola Vucevic and the Kings without All-Star big man Cousins.
Key trends: The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a loss. Orlando has covered three of its past 11 vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-2 in the Magic’s past 10 games.
Early lean: Magic and under.
Jazz at 76ers (+7.5, 185.5)
Utah lost 85-84 in Boston on Wednesday on a buzzer-beater to end the Jazz’s three-game losing streak. The Jazz led by eight with under three minutes left. They were only 3-for-19 from long range. Philly lost its third straight Wednesday, 123-118 in OT in Oklahoma City. Isaiah Canaan had career highs of 31 points and eight 3-pointers for the Sixers. Guard Robert Covington, a pleasant surprise this season, sat out with a right elbow contusion. Utah beat the visiting Sixers 88-71 on Dec. 27. Derrick Favors had 17 points, 15 rebounds and five blocked shots to lead Utah. Former 76er Michael Carter-Williams had a game to forget, going 2-for-20.
Key trends: Philly is 4-0 ATS in its past four vs. the West. The under is 4-0 in Utah’s past four on the road. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Sixers and under.
Heat at Wizards (TBA)
Miami won its second straight Wednesday, 100-94 against the Lakers. Hassan Whiteside went off with 18 points and a career-high 25 rebounds. Interesting stat: Miami’s Goran Dragic became the first player since 1993-94 to play against the Lakers five times in a regular season and win them all. Of course, he’s formerly of Phoenix. Call Luol Deng questionable for this game with a deep thigh bruise. Washington lost 97-92 in Chicago on Tuesday. Forward Kris Humphries missed his third consecutive game with a strained left groin. This is the teams’ final meeting of the regular season, with Washington winning the last two after falling in the season opener to Miami.
Key trends: Washington is 0-5 ATS in its past five vs. the East. The over is 5-1 in Miami’s past six vs. teams with a winning record. The home team has covered the past six meetings.
Early lean: Wizards will win whether Deng plays or not.
Cavaliers at Hawks (pick’em, 200)
Cleveland won its second straight Wednesday, 120-112 in Toronto. LeBron James had 29 points and a season-high 14 assists. He scored or assisted on 21 of the Cavs’ final 25 points. Cleveland’s 15 3-pointers were the most by a Toronto opponent this season. Atlanta won its fifth straight Tuesday, 104-96 over Houston. The Hawks were down 18 at one point. Atlanta was destroyed 127-94 in Cleveland on Nov. 15 but won the next two, both in December (including a 29-point shocker in Cleveland).
Key trends: Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. the East. The Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Cavs as a pick’em? I’ll take that every day.
Suns at Nets (-3, 208)
Phoenix ended a two-game skid with a 105-100 win in Orlando on Wednesday. Brandon Knight had 28 points and seven assists in his best game since joining the Suns, and they overcame a 15-point deficit. Brooklyn’s two-game winning streak ended with a 115-91 home loss to Charlotte on Wednesday. Brooklyn had won 10 in a row at home in March dating to last season. Brooklyn lost in Phoenix 112-104 on Nov. 12 as the Suns rallied from a 19-point deficit. Phoenix snapped a five-game losing streak vs. the Nets..
Key trends: Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in its past nine following an ATS win. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their past eight against the West. The home team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Early lean: Nets and over.
Pistons at Rockets (-7.5, 205)
Detroit lost its fourth straight Wednesday, 88-85 in New Orleans. That Reggie Jackson trade doesn’t seem to be working out all that well. He had only 14 in that game. Houston got James Harden back from a one-game suspension Wednesday but lost its second straight, 102-100 at home to Memphis. With the game tied, Marc Gasol blocked Harden’s layup with 6.4 seconds left to give the Grizzlies the ball back and Gasol hit the winner. Of course, Houston’s Josh Smith was cut by the Pistons in December. Detroit beat Smith and the visiting Rockets 114-101 on Jan. 31. Smith was 3-for-11 for seven points in that one. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored a season-high 28 points for the Pistons.
Key trends: The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their past seven after a loss. Houston is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. the East. The over is 8-1 in Detroit’s past nine against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Rockets and over.
Lakers at Grizzlies (-12.5, 194)
Los Angeles lost its third straight Wednesday, 100-94 in Miami. Lakers leading scorer Nick Young (sore left knee) sat out his fifth straight game. Memphis beat Houston 102-100 on Wednesday. Marc Gasol made a jumper with 0.1 seconds left. Starting power forward Zach Randolph returned after missing Tuesday’s loss to Utah with an illness. As one might expect, Memphis is 3-0 against Los Angeles this year but all three have been close. The biggest margin of victory was six.
Key trends: Memphis hasn’t covered in the past eight meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six in Memphis.
Early lean: Lakers and under.
Celtics at Pelicans (-6.5, 201)
Boston ended a two-game skid with an 85-84 win over Utah on Wednesday. Tyler Zeller banked in a close-range shot at the buzzer for the win off an inbounds play. Kelly Olynyk returned after missing 18 games with a sprained right ankle. New Orleans welcomed back Anthony Davis on Wednesday and beat Detroit 88-85. All Davis did was put up 39 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks. Boston beat visiting New Orleans 108-100 on Jan. 12 behind 27 points and 10 rebounds from Jared Sullinger, who’s now done for the year. Davis had 34 points for the Pelicans.
Key trends: Boston is 8-1 ATS in its past nine vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in New Orleans’ past six at home. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Pelicans and over.
Nuggets at Spurs (-13, 204)
Denver won its second straight under interim coach Melvin Hunt on Wednesday, 100-85 in Minnesota. The Nuggets, who clearly had quit on former coach Brian Shaw, have won back-to-back games for the first time since Jan. 14. San Antonio won its third straight Wednesday with a blowout of Sacramento in the Spurs’ first home game since Feb. 6. They shot 53 percent from the field and were 10-for-23 on 3-pointers. San Antonio had five players in double figures and everyone scored. The Spurs are 2-0 vs. Denver this season, winning by a combined 18 points and holding the Nuggets under 100 points in both.
Key trends: The under is 7-1 in San Antonio’s past eight after a win. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Nuggets and under.
Mavericks at Warriors (-9, 215)
Killer second of a back-to-back for Dallas as it was in Portland on Thursday. Dallas center Tyson Chandler was probable to return from a three-game injury absence for that one, but Chandler Parsons was ruled out again. Golden State played its first home game in a few weeks on Wednesday and beat the Bucks 102-93. Draymond Green had 23 points and 12 rebounds as the Warriors improved to an NBA-best 25-2 at home. Golden State leads the season series 2-0, winning the most recent game 128-114 at home Feb. 4. You may remember that one as the game in which Steph Curry scored a season-high 51 points. The Warriors rallied from an early 22-point hole.
Key trends: The road team is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The under is 6-2 in the past eight.
Early lean: Warriors and over.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
FRIDAY, MARCH 6 SCORE
(7:05) Toronto Raptors 100 – CHARLOTTE HORNETS 94 _____ _____
(7:05) Chicago Bulls 103 – INDIANA PACERS 99 _____ _____
(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 97 – Sacramento Kings 93 _____ _____
(7:05) Utah Jazz 104 – PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 90 _____ _____
(7:35) BROOKLYN NETS 106 – Phoenix Suns 105 _____ _____
(7:35) Cleveland Cavaliers 109 – ATLANTA HAWKS 100 _____ _____
(8:05) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 106 – LA Lakers 92 _____ _____
(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 111 – Detroit Pistons 98 _____ _____
(8:05) WASHINGTON 98 – Miami Heat 97 (ESPN) _____ _____
(8:05) NEW ORLEANS 105 – Boston Celtics 104 _____ _____
(8:35) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 100 – Denver Nuggets 98 _____ _____
(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 115 – Dallas Nuggets 101 (ESPN) _____ _____
BEST BETS: CLEVELAND, HOUSTON (4), BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE (2)
NBA
Hot Teams
— Hornets won four of their last five games (1-4 last five HF).
— Indiana won nine of its last 11 games (4-0 last four HF). Bulls won nine of last twelve games (3-1 last four AU).
— Utah won five of its last six games (8-2 last ten vs spread).
— Nets won four of last seven games (0-4 last four HF).
— Cavaliers won six of last eight games (9-3 last 12 AF). Hawks won last five games (1-0 HU).
— Miami won four of its last six games (1-3 last four AU)
— New Orleans won six of its last seven games (0-4 last four HF). Celtics are 8-5 in last thirteen games (11-3 last 14 AU).
— Nuggets are 2-0 since changing coaches (3-1 last four AU). Spurs won, covered last three games (2-4 last six HF).
— Warriors won three of last four games (3-1 last four HF).
Cold Teams
— Raptors lost six of their last seven games (3-6 last nine AU).
— Sacramento lost three of last four games (2-3 AF). Orlando lost its last four games (3-7 last ten HU).
— 76ers lost seven of their last eight games (7-2 last nine HU).
— Suns lost ten of last fourteen games (2-4 last six AU).
— Lakers lost last three games but covered five of last six. Grizzlies lost three of last five games (0-3 last three HF).
— Detroit lost its last four games (11-4 last 15 HF). Houston last its last two games, after winning previous six (4-2 last six HF).
— Wizards lost seven of their last eight games (6-3 last nine HF).
— Dallas lost three of last four games (1-9 last ten AU).
Series Records
— Hornets won their last five games withh Toronto.
— Pacers are 6-4 in last ten games with Chicago.
— Kings won four of last five games with Orlando.
— 76ers lost their last four games with Utah.
— Nets won five of last six games with Phoenix.
— Hawks won six of last seven games with Cleveland.
— Lakers lost their last five games with Memphis.
— Rockets won seven of last eight games with Detroit.
— Wizards won four of last six games with Miami.
— Pelicans won five of last six games with Boston.
— Spurs won their last five games with Denver.
— Warriors won their last five games with Dallas.
Totals
— Six of last nine Toronto road games went over total.
— Last five Indiana home games stayed under total.
— Seven of last nine Orlando home games stayed under.
— Five of last six Utah road games stayed under total.
— Four of last five Phoenix road games went over.
— Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under total.
— Last nine Memphis home games stayed under.
— Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Houston home games.
— Five of last seven Miami road games went over.
— Eight of last ten New Orleans home games went over.
— Six of last eight San Antonio home games stayed under.
— Nine of last eleven Golden State games stayed under.
Back-to-Backs
— Chicago is 5-1 vs spread on road if it played at home night before.
— Dallas is 5-3 vs spread playing second night in row on road.
Today’s NBA Picks
Cleveland at Atlanta
The Cavaliers head to Atlanta tonight where they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings against the Hawks. Atlanta is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by 3.
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2)
FRIDAY, MARCH 6
Game 801-802: Toronto at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 116.120; Charlotte 125.167
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 9; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2 1/2); Under
Game 803-804: Chicago at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.873; Indiana 123.341
Dunkel Line & Total; Indiana by 3 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Under
Game 805-806: Sacramento at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 116.017; Orlando 113.212
Dunkel Line & Total; Sacramento by 3; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 202
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1); Over
Game 807-808: Utah at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.914; Philadelphia 113.289
Dunkel Line & Total; Utah by 8 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Phoenix at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.554; Brooklyn 115.651
Dunkel Line & Total; Phoenix by 1; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Over
Game 811-812: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.217; Atlanta 127.352
Dunkel Line & Total; Atlanta by 3; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); Under
Game 813-814: LA Lakers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.449; Memphis 126.655
Dunkel Line & Total; Memphis by 14; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-11 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: Detroit at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.171; Houston 126.523
Dunkel Line & Total; Houston by 11 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Miami at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 114.920; Washington 121.423
Dunkel Line & Total; Washington by 6 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 194
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over
Game 818-820: Boston at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.207; New Orleans 124.269
Dunkel Line & Total; New Orleans by 9; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 7; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Under
Game 821-822: Denver at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 113.089; San Antonio 121.395
Dunkel Line & Total; San Antonio by 8 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 12; 205
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+12); Under
Game 823-824: Dallas at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.139; Golden State 126.893
Dunkel Line & Total; Golden State by 7 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 10; 211
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+10); Over
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NBA | DETROIT at HOUSTON
Play Over – Any team off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off a close road loss of 3 points or less
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
NBA | DETROIT at HOUSTON
Play On – Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) poor ball handling team – committing >=16 turnovers/game, in March games
115-27 since 1997. ( 81.0% | 53.3 units )
NBA | CLEVELAND at ATLANTA
Play Against – Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (CLEVELAND) after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Hawks
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (+1, 200)
A preview of a potential Eastern Conference playoff showdown is on tap Friday when the Atlanta Hawks host the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Hawks have won five straight and are running away with the East, but the Cavaliers are one of the contenders they might have to go through in the playoffs. Cleveland, which has won two straight and six of eight, is one of three teams battling for second place, far behind Atlanta.
The Hawks keep rolling along even when the odds are stacked against them — they erased an 18-point deficit in a 104-96 home win over Houston on Tuesday. “It’s a credit to our guys,” center Al Horford told reporters. “Guys were relentless, kept fighting.” The Hawks have won two of three meetings this season and four straight at home against the Cavaliers.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), SportSouth (Atlanta)
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the line at ATL +1, but some had moved it to +1.5 soon after. The total opened at 200 across the books.
INJURY REPORT: Cavs – F Shawn Marion (Early March, hip), C Anderson Varejao (Out for season, Achilles). Hawks – G Thaba Sefolosha (Mid March, calf).
POWER RANKINGS: Cavs (-9.4) + Hawks (-11.4) + home court (-3.0) = Hawks -5.0
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Missed free throws aside, no one is moving up the board faster right now than LeBron and company, and truth be told, this has been the best team in the league over the last month and a half. The Hawks became the first team to clinch a playoff spot thanks to Tuesday’s come from behind win over Houston. They also continue to maintain the league’s best SU and ATS record, yet aren’t even considered the favorite to win their own conference!” Bryan Power.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (39-24 SU, 31-32 ATS, 23-39-1 O/U): Cleveland is an NBA-best 20-4 since Jan. 15 and is coming off an impressive 120-112 win at Toronto on Wednesday. LeBron James (26.3 points, 7.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds) continues to lead the charge, but Kyrie Irving (21.7 points, 5.3 assists) and Kevin Love (17 points, 10.2 rebounds) combined for 48 points against the Raptors. It marked only the sixth time this season all three stars topped 20 points in the same game.
ABOUT THE HAWKS (48-12 SU, 39-20-1 ATS, 30-30 O/U): Atlanta is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has held all five opponents under 100 points during its winning streak. The Hawks also are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring. Forward Paul Millsap (16.9 points, eight rebounds) and point guard Jeff Teague (16.8 points, 7.3 assists) lead the way, but Horford has averaged 17.5 points and 10.5 points over the past two games and Dennis Schroder has averaged 16 points and nine assists over those two contests.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.
* Hawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central.
* Under is 5-0 in Hawks last five vs. Eastern Conference.
CONSENSUS: 55.05 percent are backing the Cavaliers -1.
POINTWISE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
FRIDAY, MARCH 6 SCORE
(7:00) Miami-Ohio 79 – OHIO U 72 _____ _____
(7:00) DARTMOUTH 66 – Brown 61 _____ _____
(7:00) Toledo 75 – EASTERN MICHIGAN 74 _____ _____
(7:00) BUFFALO 73 – Bowling Green 72 _____ _____
(7:00) KENT STATE 64 – Akron 57 _____ _____
(7:00) BALL STATE 69 – Northern Illinois 65 _____ _____
(7:00) Central Michigan 79 – WESTERN MICHIGAN 69 _____ _____
(7:00) Columbia 74 – PENNSYLVANIA 66 _____ _____
(7:00) PRINCETON 70 – Cornell 60 _____ _____
(8:00) Yale 76 – HARVARD 71 _____ _____
(9:00) BAYLOR 82 – Texas Tech 55 (ESPN2) _____ _____
BEST BETS: COLUMBIA, YALE, BAYLOR
College Basketball
Harvard/Yale are tied for first in Ivy League; Crimson won first meeting 52-50 (+1.5) in New Haven Feb 7– Yale shot 28.1% inside arc in ugly game that was 16-11 Harvard at halftime. Bulldogs won five of last six games, are 5-0 on Ivy road- both their Ivy losses are at home. Harvard won nine of last ten games since losing at home to Dartmouth- they’re 2-3 as home favorites. Ivy League home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-6-1 vs spread. Both teams play Saturday; there is no conference tourney in Ivy League, so this is pretty much the conference championship game.
MVC tournament, St Louis
Wichita State won this tourney LY after being 11-11 in this event the 11 years before that; Shockers swept Southern Illinois this year, winning at home 67-55 (-18) Jan 14, then 84-62 (-11) in Carbondale Feb 17- they shot 60%+ inside arc in both games. Salukis played three guys 35:00+ in last night’s win, their second win in row after a 1-9 skid- they covered in two of last seven games as an underdog. Wichita covered seven of its last eight games. Keep in mind winner has to play Saturday/Sunday too.
Evansville got swept by Illinois State this year, 77-51 in Normal Feb 3 (Aces were 0-10 on arc), then 69-67 in OT at home six days ago, a game Redbirds tied in last 0:13, after blowing 8-point lead. ISU won last four games, is 3-2 in last five games as a favorite. Aces lost last four games, wound up disappointing 9-9 in Valley after upsettig Northern Iowa in MVC opener. Illinois State won first game in this event five of last seven years, Aces only two of last eight years.
Loyola won a game LY in its first MVC tourney, ending 5-year winless skid in conference tourneys; Ramblers lost twice to Indiana State, 72-61 in Terre Haute (+2.5) Jan 24, then 79-65 (-2.5) two weeks later. Loyola won its last three games, covered six of last seven; they’re 5-1-1 in last seven games as an underdog. Sycamores went 6-7 in their last 13 games; they’ve won at least one game in Arch Madness nine of last ten years. Doyle played 9 minutes for Loyola last game, after missing 11 games.
Bradley snapped 7-game skid last night, beating Drake in OT after they lost twice to Bulldogs during season; Braves played three guys 38:00+ in last night’s win- they were down 3 with 1:40 left. Northern Iowa lost its first and last Valley game, went 16-0 in between; they won 63-52 (-8.5) at Bradley Jan 13, then beat Braves 56-39 (-17) at home Feb 21- they led by 20+ in both games. Bradley is 2-4-2 vs spread in last eight games.
CAA tournament, Baltimore
Elon won its last three games after starting 3-12 in its first CAA season; Phoenix lost 57-53 (+3) at Towson Jan 5, then lost 53-51 (-5) to Tigers in rematch Jan 22. Towson lost four in row, seven of last eight games after being 26-8 in CAA last two years. Elon won its first game in nine of last 11 SoCon tournaments, but this is step up from there. Tigers are 5-2 in last seven first round games. Towson State is basically home team as this event moves to Baltimore from Richmond.
Charleston changed coaches just before practice started and had terrible season, going 3-15 in CAA; Cougars lost 53-51 (-1) at Drexel Jan 24, as Dragons scored last six points of game and 59-45 (-4) at home two weeks later (Charleston was 0-11 on arc, Drexel 9-15). Dragons started out 4-14 this season, then won next six games, then lost four of last five- they are 3-8 in first CAA tourney game last 11 years. Cougars lost by 11 last year to Wm&Mary in their first CAA tourney game.
Horizon tournament, Valparaiso IN
Oakland played #13 non-conference schedule to get ready for this- they are 11-3 in last 14 games, after starting season 5-12. Oakland is 12-6 in conference tournaments last eight years, winning two Summit titles; they beat Ill-Chicago twice this year, 91-77 (-4.5) in Chicago Feb 4, then 81-56 (-10.5) at home 18 days later. Flames are 1-5 in this tournament last five years, with three of last four losses by 10+ points. UIC beat Wright St. in first round game after trailing by 19 at the half.
Cleveland State lost last two games to finish 11-5 in Horizon; their last five games were all decided by 8 or less points. Home side won both its games with Detroit this year. State (-7.5) won 70-66 at home Jan 23, but lost 66-65 (-2.5) in Motor City Feb 13 (led by 3 with 0:22 left). Vikings are 0-3 in this tourney last three years; Detroit is 0-2 last two years after winning it in ’12 with coach McCallum’s son (now in NBA) leading way. These two games are at neutral Valpo site, with semifinals Saturday.
WCC tournament, Las Vegas
Pacific won Big West tourney in ’06/’13 but is otherwise is 1-7 in league tourney games, losing by 17 LY in first WCC tourney game. Tigers lost twice to San Francisco this year, losing 77-71 (+4) at home to Dons Dec 27, then 65-55 at USF six days ago. Pacific lost nine of its last 11 games overall, covering three of last four as a dog. USF won its first tourney tilt three of last four years; they’ve won four of last five games overall, with only loss by 31 to St Mary’s.
Santa Clara beat LMU twice this season, 65-62 (-5) at home Jan 22, and 70-63 (-3.5) in LA Feb 21, making 20-46 from arc in two games; Broncos lost seven of last nine games, but upset St Mary’s 71-70 on Senior Night six days ago- they’re 1-2 as WCC favorites. LMU has former NBA coach who doesn’t have enough of his players yet. Lions lost last six games, all but one by 7+ points- they’ve won first tourney game five of the last six years. Santa Clara is 2-3 in first tourney game last five years.
Ohio Valley tournament, Nashville
Over last nine years, Murray State is 112-37 in OVC but won conference tourney only three times; Racers are 16-0 in OVC this year- they won at Morehead State 66-57 (-3) Jan 3 in only series meeting– game was just 31-26 at half. Morehead won games last two nights, while Murray State hasn’t played since Saturday. Eagles played three guys 30+ minutes but did use three subs 17+ minutes. Immense pressure on Murray- they are not getting into NCAAs unless they win their next two games.
Over last nine years, Belmont is 20-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins pounded on Eastern Illinois last night by 33, only one guy played 30+ minutes. Home side won both series games this year; EKU (-3.5) won 81-69 at home Feb 5, then lost 66-61 (+2) here in Nashville two weeks later. Eastern Kentucky won eight of last nine games; they won this event LY as basically #3 seed in OVC. Belmont won its last five games, covered last four.
NCAA Basketball Picks
Texas Tech at Baylor
The Red Raiders head to Baylor tonight where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Bears. Baylor is the pick (-16) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 23.
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-16)
FRIDAY, MARCH 6
Game 825-826: Miami (OH) at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 56.731; Ohio 49.715
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 7
Vegas Line: Ohio by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+2 1/2)
Game 827-828: Brown at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.662; Dartmouth 55.360
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+8 1/2)
Game 829-830: Toledo at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 60.420; Eastern Michigan 56.934
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Toledo by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-1 1/2)
Game 831-832: Bowling Green at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 54.335; Buffalo 66.465
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 12
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-7)
Game 833-834: Akron at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.242; Kent State 60.136
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5
Vegas Line: Kent State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent Sate (-2 1/2)
Game 835-836: Northern Illinois at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 57.411; Ball State 51.087
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-1 1/2)
Game 837-838: Central Michigan at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 60.757; Western Michigan 57.960
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 3
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+1 1/2)
Game 839-840: Columbia at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 51.074; Pennsylvania 49.603
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 4
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+4)
Game 841-842: Cornell at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 53.829; Princeton 56.590
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 3
Vegas Line: Princeton by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+6 1/2)
Game 843-844: Yale at Harvard (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 59.843; Harvard 62.262
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+4 1/2)
Game 845-846: Texas Tech at Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 55.429; Baylor 78.188
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 23
Vegas Line: Baylor by 16
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-16)
Game 847-848: Southern Illinois vs. Wichita State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 849-850: Evansville vs. Illinois State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 53.576; Illinois State 59.703
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 6
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-4 1/2)
Game 851-852: Bradley vs. Northern Iowa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:
Game853-854: Loyola-Chicago vs. Indiana State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 54.388; Indiana State 55.292
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 1
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+2 1/2)
Game 855-856: Towson vs. Elon (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 48.107; Elon 51.651
Dunkel Line: Elon by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Towson by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+1 1/2)
Game 857-858: College of Charleston vs. Drexel (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 44.490; Drexel 50.370
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 6
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Drexel
Game 859-860: Illinois-Chicago vs. Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 46.132; Oakland 56.375
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 10
Vegas Line: Oakland by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-7 1/2)
Game 861-862: Detroit vs. Cleveland State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 52.517; Cleveland State 56.372
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 4
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2)
Game 863-864: Pacific vs. San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 53.085; San Francisco 54.737
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+4 1/2)
Game 865-866: Loyola Marymount vs. Santa Clara (11:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 48.825; Santa Clara 54.371
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (-3 1/2)
Game 867-868: Samford vs. NC-Greensboro (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.697; NC-Greensboro 50.804
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 5
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 1
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (-1)
Game 869-870: Furman vs. The Citadel (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 36.240; The Citadel 40.814
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Furman by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+1 1/2)
Game 871-872: Morehead State vs. Murray State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 873-874: Belmont vs. Eastern Kentucky (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 875-876: Longwood vs. Charleston Southern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Longwood 39.842; Charleston Southern 53.936
Dunkel Line: Charleston Southern by 14
Vegas Line: Charleston Southern by 10
Dunkel Pick: Charleston Southern (-10)
Game 877-878: Winthrop vs. Radford (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 50.208; Radford 51.370
Dunkel Line: Radford by 1
Vegas Line: Winthrop by 1
Dunkel Pick: Radford (+1)
Game 879-880: Gardner-Webb vs. High Point (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 49.930; High Point 51.336
Dunkel Line: High Point by 1 1`/2
Vegas Line: High Point by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gardner-Webb (+3 1/2)
Game 881-882: NC-Asheville vs. Coastal Carolina (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 45.810; Coastal Carolina 49.744
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 4
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina by 9
Dunkel Pick: NC-Asheville (+9)
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | COLUMBIA at PENNSYLVANIA
Play Against – A home team (PENNSYLVANIA) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, with just two starters returning from last season
357-229 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.9% | 105.1 units )
46-23 this year. ( 66.7% | 20.7 units )
CBB | YALE at HARVARD
Play On – A road team vs. the money line (YALE) average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games
290-172 since 1997. ( 62.8% | 90.4 units )
41-21 this year. ( 66.1% | 17.1 units )
CBB | BRADLEY at N IOWA
Play On – Underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (BRADLEY) a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
CRUSHER
Hockey Crusher
Calgary Flames + Detroit Red Wings OVER 5
(System Record: 77-3, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 77-56-2
Basketball Crusher
Evansville +4 over Illinois State
(System Record: 64-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 64-58-2
Soccer Crusher
Atletico Rafaela + Racing Club UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 715-25, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 715-598-108
Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today…
Hockey
Chicago Blackhawks + Edmonton Oilers – UNDER 5.5
Buffalo Sabres + Ottawa Senators – OVER 5
Pittsburgh Penguins +116 over Anaheim Ducks
Basketball
Illinois-Chicago +7.5 over Oakland
Loyola Marymount +3.5 over Santa Clara
Gardner-Webb +3.5 over High Point
H&H Sports
CBB
5* Ivy League Game of the Year — Yale +5
Triple Dime — Buffalo -7
Colonial Conference Tournament
Double Dime —- Drexel pk
Horizon League Conference Tournament
Double Dime —- Oakland -7 (-120)
Big South Conference Tournament
Triple Dime —- Radford +1
NHL
Double Dime — Pittsburgh ML+125
NEWSLETTER NBA Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take ‘Under’ – Utah at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Friday, March 6)
Love the under in this matchup and expect it will be released too high. The Sixers have been giving up some points on certain nights but they have also played decent defense on other nights and we think they can stop this Utah team from reaching the century mark here tonight. Utah is just a bad offensive team, and they have been getting the job done with their strong defense lately. But this is a team that is rarely going to surpass the century mark, and we don’t think they will do it here on the road. Utah has really stepped up their defense lately and this team is trending heavily towards the under with eight of their last 10 games entering Wednesday’s action going under the posted number. Philly is a really bad offensive team as well and they should wind up in the mid-80s here with the way the Utah defense has been playing, and we just don’t see them having any success on the offensive end here and think that the high-70s would not be a huge surprise. We think that the Jazz can get their points here and still have this one go under the posted number, but we don’t see either team doing anything outstanding offensively.
NEWSLETTER NHL Hockey Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take ‘Over’ 5.5 – Winnipeg at Nashville (7 p.m., Friday, March 6)
Since coming back from a knee injury a few weeks ago, goaltender Pekka Rinne hasn’t been the same for Nashville. Rinne was dominating in the net for the first three months of the season and looked to be on his way to winning the Vezina Trophy with less than two goals allowed per contest. But since coming back he’s allowing 2.83 goals per game, including four goals in each of his last three starts. He’ll eventually get it turned around, but now’s the time to take advantage of his struggles. On Saturday he’ll face a Winnipeg Jets team that has really gotten aggressive offensively over the last couple of months. Part of it was due to a bevy of injuries to its defensemen, which led to a different style of play. It worked for the Jets, and the Over has went 21-7-3 in their last 31 games as a result. We should see more of the same on Saturday as the Predators don’t mind getting up and down the ice, either.