by WINNERS_ONLY
Spartan
Triple Dime bet — Baylor -3
Free selection: Take Oklahoma State -2
LV Sportsline
Mercer +13
Stanford +3.5
Tulsa +9
Ok State -3
TEDDY COVERS
20* Pittsburgh/Colorado – Under 128.5
Right Angle Sports
NCAA Friday: 829 Stanford +3.5
NCAA Friday: 831 Eastern Ky/Kansas – Over 148.5
Dr Bob
3* Duke -14
2* VCU -7
Maddux Sports
VCU -6
Anthony Michael
Kentucky -6
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: East region Day 2
(9) George Washington Colonials vs. (8) Memphis Tigers (-3, 142.5)
The Colonials finished behind only Massachusetts and VCU among the American Athletic Conference’s scoring leaders, averaging 73.4 points. George Washington boasts a balanced offensive attack that features four players among the Atlantic 10′s top 30 scorers. Maurice Creek’s 14.3 points per game are a team best.
Memphis has lost three of its last five games overall and has yielded an average of 82 points in its last three losses. The Tigers’ 53 points against Connecticut last time out matched their lowest output of the season and leading scorer Joe Jackson was held to 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting.
TRENDS:
* George Washington is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Under is 7-1 in Memphis’ last eight non-conference games.
(11) Providence Friars vs. (6) North Carolina Tar Heels (-4, 143.5)
The Friars are making their first NCAA tournament appearance in 10 years and Bryce Cotton seems intent on capping his four-year career at Providence with a tournament victory. The 6-1 point guard is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 assists and has scored at least 22 in eight of the last 10 games.
There may be some concern that Tar Heels’ forward James Michael McAdoo is slipping back into a rough patch after the 6-9 forward went without a rebound in 24 minutes of the regular-season finale against Duke, then shot 4-for-13 in the loss to Pittsburgh. In the last eight games, he’s shooting 37.7 percent while averaging 8.6 points, dropping his season average to 14.2.
TRENDS:
* Providence is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games versus the ACC.
* North Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 in Providence’s last 11 non-conference games.
(16) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. (1) Virginia Cavaliers (-21.5, 122.5)
While Coastal Carolina will be playing 2 1/2 hours from its campus in Conway, S.C., it enters NCAA play knowing that a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1. The Chanticleers earned their first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1993 by rolling over Winthrop 76-61 in the Big South championship game, their fifth consecutive victory.
Malcolm Brogdon scored 23 points and the Cavaliers played their usual stingy defense in Sunday’s win over Duke to become the 15th team to win both the ACC regular-season and postseason titles. Joe Harris, who was second to Brogdon in scoring at 11.6 per game, had 15 points against Duke to earn tournament MVP honors for Virginia, which entered Sunday’s game leading the nation in points allowed at 55.1 per game.
TRENDS:
* Coastal Carolina is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-2 in Virginia’s last seven neutral site games.
(14) North Carolina Central Eagles vs. (3) Iowa State Cyclones (-8, 145)
The 14th-seeded Eagles are making their tournament debut in just their fourth season as a full-fledged Division I program after dominating the MEAC, winning 15 straight conference games and 17 in a row overall to finish the regular season before claiming three conference tourney games by an average of 26 points.
Iowa State owns the nation’s sixth-ranked offense – led by Big 12 Player of the Year Melvin Ejim (18.1 points) – and has won 11 of its last 14 overall, including seven victories over tournament teams. With four double-digit scorers and an unselfish style that yielded the most assists per game in the nation, the Cyclones have many ways to hurt you, as evidenced by the Big 12 tournament title game in which Ejim was limited to just three baskets in 32 minutes.
TRENDS:
* North Carolina Central is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.
* Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 8-3 in Iowa State’s last 11 games following a SU win.
Round 2 betting cheat sheet: South Region Day 2
(5) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+6.5, 137)
Virginia Commonwealth will enter the NCAA tournament as the South Region’s fifth seed, taking on a 12 seed in Stephen F. Austin on a 28-game winning streak Friday in San Diego. VCU was unable to capture an Atlantic 10 championship Sunday, losing to Saint Joseph’s 65-61 to snap a streak of six straight wins. The Rams shot 5-of-19 from behind the arc against the Hawks, and coach Shaka Smart saw that as a key factor, telling reporters, “We didn’t put enough of them away and we had good looks.”
The Lumberjacks have plenty of momentum as they get set for their second appearance in the Big Dance, having captured the Southland Conference tournament title with a win over Sam Houston State on Saturday to match the single-season school record for wins with their 31st of the season. Coach Brad Underwood led Stephen F. Austin to the Southland’s first 30-plus win season and the first-year coach was left beaming with pride after capturing the conference crown. “For us to be on the national stage,” Underwood said, “that means the world. We take great, great pride in being able to play for Stephen F. Austin University.”
TRENDS:
*Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games
*Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
*Under is 19-7 in the Rams last 26 non-conference games
(4) UCLA Bruins vs. (13) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+8.5, 146)
Two playing legends of NCAA tournaments past, Steve Alford and Danny Manning, will look to make more memories when the teams they coach, No. 4 seed UCLA and No. 13 seed Tulsa, respectively, match up in a South Regional second-round contest in San Diego on Friday. Both teams like to put points on the board, with the Bruins averaging 81.8 points and the Golden Hurricane at 73.1. The duo of Jordan Adams (17.2 ppg) and Kyle Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg) powers UCLA, while Tulsa relies on the scoring of James Woodard (15.7 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.1).
Both teams are coming off conference tournament championships, and both have had to fight back from rough stretches. The Bruins, in their first year under Alford, entered the Pac-12 tournament having lost three of six, including a humiliating 18-point setback to Washington State in the regular-season finale. The Golden Hurricane, meanwhile, started the season 0-4 and 1-6 before righting the ship in Manning’s second season at the helm.
TRENDS:
*Golden Hurricane are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win
*Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games
*Under is 12-4 in Golden Hurricane last 16 games
(10) Stanford Cardinal vs. (7) New Mexico Lobos (-3, 137)
Stanford returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008 when the 10th-seeded Cardinal face No. 7 seed New Mexico in Friday’s South Regional in St. Louis. The Lobos enter the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country after capturing their third consecutive Mountain West tournament title with a 64-58 win over San Diego State on Saturday. New Mexico has won nine of its last 10 games while Stanford dropped four of its final seven, including an 84-59 loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals.
While Stanford is playing in the NCAA tournament for the first time in six years under coach Johnny Dawkins, New Mexico is making its fourth appearance in the last five years. The Lobos are hoping to improve on last year’s showing, when they were upset as a No. 3 seed in the second round 68-62 by No. 14 seed Harvard. The Lobos are known for their strong frontcourt, but forward Cameron Bairstow and 7-foot center Alex Kirk should receive a solid test from Stanford forwards Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis.
TRENDS:
*Cardinal are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
*Lobos are 38-17-3 ATS in their last 58 games following a ATS win
*Under is 8-1 in Lobos last 9 overall
(15) Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. (2) Kansas Jayhawks (-14, 150.5)
No. 2 Kansas might not need freshman Joel Embiid during its NCAA tournament second-round game against No. 15 Eastern Kentucky on Friday in St. Louis. The Jayhawks’ top rebounder hasn’t played since March 1 because of lingering back issues but their first opponent – a Colonels team making its first tournament appearance since 2007 – is ranked at the bottom nationally in rebounding. The winner between these high-scoring teams – both average nearly 80 points – plays No. 7 New Mexico or No. 10 Stanford.
Glenn Cosey leads the Colonels, who beat defending champion Belmont to win the Ohio Valley tournament title, with his 3-point shooting. The Jayhawks, who were knocked out in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament and have lost three of five, are making their 25th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance – the nation’s longest active streak. Andrew Wiggins leads the Jayhawks with 17.4 points and needs 16 to break Ben McLemore’s Kansas freshman scoring record.
TRENDS:
*Colonels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
*Jayhawks are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games folloing a S.U. loss
*Over is 10-4 in Colonels last 14 games following a ATS win
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: Midwest region Day 2
(14) Mercer Bears vs. (3) Duke Blue Devils (-12.5, 140.5)
Mercer, located in Macon, Ga., makes its third tournament appearance and first since 1985 after a 68-60 victory at Florida Gulf Coast – last year’s Sweet 16 Cinderella team – in the Atlantic Sun final March 9. The Bears split four games against major conference teams this season, losing to Texas and Oklahoma while defeating Seton Hall and Mississippi.
With a player the caliber of freshman Jabari Parker (19.2 points, 8.8 rebounds), the Blue Devils are capable of outperforming their seed. Sophomore forward Rodney Hood (16.5 points) did not play in last season’s tournament after transferring from Mississippi State and sitting out the sesaon, so he is also without NCAA experience.
TRENDS:
* Mercer is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.
* Duke is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Duke’s last seven non-conference games.
(11) Tennessee Volunteers vs. (6) Massachusetts Minutemen (+4, 136)
Jarnell Stokes keyed the Volunteers’ victory over Iowa with 18 points and 13 boards, notching his 20th double-double, and scores 14.8 while grabbing 10.4 rebounds per game overall. First team All-SEC pick Jordan McRae leads the team in scoring (18.6) and has recorded at least 20 points 16 times, including Wednesday.
Senior guard Chaz Williams, the team’s all-time assist leader, stirs the drink for a deep Minutemen squad that includes seven players averaging at least 8.8 points. Williams registers 15.8 points and hands out seven assists per contest – third in the nation – while junior Cady Lalanne is second in scoring (11.4) and leads the team in rebounding (eight).
TRENDS:
* Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Massachusetts is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. the SEC.
* Under is 6-0 in Tennessee’s last six games overall.
(16) Cal Poly SLO Mustangs vs. (1) Wichita State Shockers (-16, 125.5)
The Mustangs lost nine of their last 11 games in the regular season, but with a healthier lineup they swept through three games in the conference tournament and scored almost 18 more than their average coming in against Texas Southern. Senior Chris Eversley has recorded 17 points per game the in last three and sophomore Dave Nwaba 14.8 over the previous four contests.
The Shockers are the first team since UNLV in 1991 to enter the tournament unbeaten and look to make their 11th appearance overall a special one, starting in the difficult Midwest Regional. The Shockers showed their balance in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament as their top four scorers each totaled between 40 and 47 points combined in three games.
TRENDS:
* Cal Poly is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Wichita State is 5-0 AS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-2 in Wichita State’s last nine games overall.
(9) Kansas State Wildcats vs. (8) Kentucky Wildcats (-6, 132.5)
Kansas State, who is 0-8 all-time against Kentucky, are led by freshman guard Marcus Foster, who averages 15.6 points and 3.2 rebounds while shooting better than 40 percent from the field and on 3-pointers. He is complemented by junior Thomas Gibson, who is first in rebounding (6.5 per game) and second in points (11.8) and senior Shane Southwell, who averages 9.8 points.
Kentucky, who enter the tournament unranked, opened the season as the No. 1 team in the nation and stayed there for one week before falling down the rankings. Julius Randle leads a group of five freshmen starters with 15.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, but after posting six straight double-doubles, he struggled in the SEC final, going 1-of-7 and scoring four points and grabbing seven rebounds.
TRENDS:
* Kansas State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Kentucky is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1 in Kentucky’s last five neutral site games.
NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: West region Day 2
(11) Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. (6) Baylor Bears (-3.5, 131)
The Cornhuskers had won eight of their last nine games before falling to Ohio State. Terran Petteway, who led the Big Ten in scoring during the regular season with 18.1 points, tallied double figures in all but two games and will look to continue that run in his first tournament appearance. Before leaving the Big 12, Nebraska suffered three straight losses to the Bears.
The Bears rolled off six straight wins and were in a prime position to win their second straight over the Iowa State with a five-point halftime lead on the Cyclones, who they beat 74-61 on March 4. The second half featured a completely different Iowa State team, however, and Baylor’s zone defense was no match for a squad that shot 63.8 percent after the break. Fatigue may have played a part in the loss as Baylor was playing its fourth game in four days.
TRENDS:
*Cornhuskers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall
*Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games
*Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings
(16) Weber State Wildcats vs. (1) Arizona Wildcats (-20, 127.5)
Arizona bobbled a bit after a school-record 21-0 start, going 7-3 down the stretch before losing to UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament final. Those speed bumps coincided with a season-ending foot injury to starting forward and third-leading scorer Brandon Ashley, leaving freshman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson to try and fill his shoes. The Wildcats’ last run as a No. 1 seed ended with a loss to second-seeded Kansas in the Elite Eight.
The Weber State Wildcats won their first conference tournament title in seven years with a 21-point victory Saturday night against North Dakota. The player to watch for Weber State is conference tournament MVP Davion Berry, a 6-4 wing who averages 19.1 points with 21 straight games of 12 or more.
TRENDS:
* Weber State Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Friday games.
* Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 4-1 in Arizona’s last 5 vs. Big Sky.
(14) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. (3) Creighton Bluejays (-14, 154.5)
The Ragin’ Cajuns like to get up and down the floor, averaging 81.4 points and allowing 75.1 per contest. They don’t defend the perimeter especially well (33.2 percent), which could be a disaster against McDermott and the sharp-shooting Bluejays.
The Bluejays are making their third straight NCAA tournament appearance and have gone 1-1 each of the past two years. That run has coincided with what likely will soon become three consecutive All-America campaigns from McDermott, who has reached double-digit points an NCAA-record 133 times and has scored 20 or more points in 13 straight games.
TRENDS:
* Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.
* Bluejays are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 19-7-1 in Bluejays last 27 non-conference games.
(9) Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. (8) Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2.5, 139)
The ninth-seeded Cowboys watched star guard Marcus Smart go from potential top-five NBA draftee to perceived head case in a matter of months, and the controversy aided in the team’s slide out of contention. The Cowboys haven’t won a tournament game since 2009, when it beat Tennessee 77-75 in the opening round.
The Bulldogs will make their 16th consecutive tournament appearance, but under far different circumstances than their previous one. Armed with a 31-2 record and the top seed in the West Region a year ago, Gonzaga saw its title hopes dashed with a stunning loss to No. 9 Wichita State in the third round. The Bulldogs sputtered their way to an unimpressive 2-4 record versus teams in the top 50 of the RPI rankings this season, but they still prevailed in the WCC tournament with dominant victories over Saint Mary’s and Brigham Young.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 21-6 in Cowboys last 27 Friday games.
NCAA South Regional betting news and notes: Colonels’ not-so-secret receipe
Friday marks the second day of South Regional action at the NCAA tournament. Check out our news and notes on the eight teams in action:
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Eastern Kentucky Colonels (+14, 150.5)
The Colonels have an obvious game plan entering their encounter with the heavily-favored Jayhawks: Make their two-point shots. Eastern Kentucky finished second in the nation in two-point shooting percentage (56.2), which is good because its offensive rebound rate of 23 percent is sixth-worst in all of Division I.
No. 5 Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+6.5, 137)
The Rams’ outside shooting takes a serious hit with the absence of Melvin Johnson, who will sit out the tournament opener with a knee sprain. The sophomore made better than 39 percent of his 3-point attempts, pacing a VCU team that led the Atlantic-10 conference with 252 3-pointers. In Johnson’s absence, head coach Shaka Smart leaned on backup JeQuan Lewis for 24 minutes in the A-10 title game, getting five points and five assists from the reserve.
No. 4 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 13 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+8.5, 146)
Tulsa head coach Danny Manning emphasized an uptempo offense last season – his first at the helm – but it didn’t bear frui. His freshman-dominated lineup struggled through fatigue and leg injuries to average just 67.9 points. This year, with the same core a season older and in better shape, Tulsa put up 73.1 points per game – good for second in C-USA. Despite that pace, the Golden Hurricane are just 6-10 O/U away from the Donald Reynolds Center this season.
No. 7 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 10 Stanford Cardinal (+3, 137)
No team in the South Regional is as starter-driven as the Cardinal, whose lineup of Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, Josh Huestis, Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic started every game this season. Stanford’s bench scored 10 or fewer points 18 times, while the starting five accounted for more than 87 percent of the team’s scoring. The Lobos are great at drawing fouls and forced an average of 23.7 whistles in their three MWC tournament games – 14th most in the country in a three-game span. New Mexico could test the Cardinal’s depth if they can get Stanford in foul trouble.
NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: Zona’s Miller sterling in tourney
The Round of 64 continues in the West Regional Friday. Here’s some betting news and notes from that quadrant of the bracket.
No. 16 Weber State Wildcats vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-20, 127.5)
Arizona, the No. 1 seed in the West Region, shouldn’t have any problem winning against No. 16 seed Weber State. No. 1 seeds are a spotless 116-0 SU against No. 16 seeds. Another stat that favors the Wildcats (30-4 SU, 20-13 ATS) well beyond Friday’s game: In 10 years as a head coach (previously at Xavier, currently at Arizona), Sean Miller has never lost SU to a worse-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. This will be Miller’s seventh trip to the Big Dance.
No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 6 Baylor Bears (-3.5, 131)
Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, going 0-6 SU. So picking the 11th-seeded Huskers to pull the outright upset of No. 6 Baylor might not be the best move. On the flip side, the Huskers (19-12 SU) have a 20-10 ATS mark this year, eighth nationally.
No. 14 UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns vs. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays (-14, 154.5)
Experience can count for a lot this time of year, and Creighton has plenty of it. This is the Bluejays’ third straight NCAA tournament and they have four seniors, including likely National Player of the Year Doug McDermott. Those four seniors are all starters (guard Austin Chatman is a junior) and of Creighton’s top eight players, seven have NCAA tournament experience. The Ragin’ Cajuns, meanwhile, are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2005 and have just two seniors among their starters and top reserves.
No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (+2.5, 139)
Cowboys star Marcus Smart (18.7 points. 6.0 assists, 5.7 rebounds in his last seven games) has been all the rage in getting his squad to the NCAA tournament. But the key for Oklahoma State could be less-heralded Phil Forte, according to the Daily Oklahoman’s John Helsley.
The 5-foot-11 guard was named co-Sixth Man of the Year in the Big 12, but he’s been a starter the past 10 games. His sharpshooting from 3-point range – hitting 44.5 percent (98 of 220) and is 24th nationally in made 3-pointers per game (2.97) – has stretched defenses, opening up things for Smart and standout teammates Markel Brown and Le’Bryan Nash.
68 betting stats for 68 NCAA tournament teams
by Brian Covert
It’s tough to track all the teams vying for the national title when the NCAA tournaments gets underway this week. If you need a quick crash course in college hoops, here’s one defining stat for all 68 teams doing the Big Dance this March.
MIDWEST REGIONAL
1. Wichita State – The Shockers had the NCAA’s best ATS record going 24-6-1 ATS.
2. Michigan – The Wolverines enter the tournament as the team who commits the least amount of fouls, averaging only 14.5 per game.
3. Duke – The Blue Devils were the country’s second-most efficient offensive team averaging 1.179 points per possession.
4. Louisville – The Cardinals’ average victory margin of plus-21.1 points led the country.
5. Saint Louis – The Billikens’ were the second-best team at defending the three, allowing only 12.4 points off the long ball.
6. UMass – The Minutemen were 13-1 SU in non-conference games having played the nation’s seventh toughest non-conference schedule based on the RPI index.
7. Texas – The Longhorns were the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country with 13.2 per contest.
8. Kentucky – The Wildcats were second in the country in rebounding margin at plus-10.5 per game.
9. Kansas State – Wildcats head coach Bruce Weber is only 9-11 all time in the NCAA tourney with five of those wins coming in final run with Illinois.
10. Arizona State – The Sun Devils’ 26.2 rebounds per game was the nation’s third-best mark.
11. Iowa – The Hawkeyes were second in the nation in first-half scoring, averaging 40.9 points in the opening 20 minutes.
Tennessee – The Volunteers are the 20th-best rebounding team and 15th-best defensive rebounding team in the NCAA.
12. North Carolina State – The Wolfpack were 21-13 SU and 18-12-1 ATS.
Xavier – The Musketeers are the 32nd-best shooting team in the country with a FG percentage of 47.1.
13. Manhattan – The Jaspers return to the tournament for the first time since 2004 when, as a No. 12 seed, they upset No. 5 Florida.
14. Mercer – The Bears have seven players who average over 10 minutes per game but only one player, Langston Hall, who averages in double figures.
15. Wofford – The Terriers have the 265th-best offense in the country averaging 67.7 points per game but the 23rd-best defense allowing only 62.4.
16. Cal Poly – The Mustangs were just 13-19 overall and their 62 points per game is amongst the worst of teams still playing.
Texas Southern – The Tigers go into the tourney having won nine in a row including three straight at neutral sites.
SOUTH REGIONAL
1. Florida – The Gators have 13 players – four seniors and nine underclassmen – who average at least 10 minutes per game.
2. Kansas – The Jayhawks were 5-2 SU in neutral-site games but just 3-4 ATS and were just 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS in true road games – a total ATS mark of 7-11 away from Lawrence.
3. Syracuse – The Orange won only two games SU and covered one after losing their undefeated season in a loss to Boston College on Feb. 19.
4. UCLA – The Bruins had the NCAA’s ninth-best offense in D-1, averaging 81.8 points per game.
5. Virginia Commonwealth – The Rams led the nation in steals per game with 11.3 per contest.
6. Ohio State – In 14 years as a D-1 head coach, Thad Matta has been to the tournament 11 times only losing in the first round once.
7. New Mexico – The Lobos are 14-3 in its last 16 conference road/neutral games, with all three losses coming by a combined five points.
8. Colorado – The Buffaloes were just 7-7 SU after losing guard Spencer Dinwiddie in January.
9. Pittsburgh – As head coach of the Panthers, Jamie Dixon has only lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament once.
10. Stanford – This is the first NCAA tournament berth for the Cardinal under current head coach Johnny Dawkins.
11. Dayton – Flyers leading scorer Jordan Sibert, an Ohio native, is a transfer from OSU having played his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Buckeyes.
12. Stephen F. Austin – The Lumberjacks enter the tournament having won 26 in a row SU.
13. Tulsa – The Golden Hurricane had D-1’s second-best ATS record, going 22-8 ATS.
14. Western Michigan – The only major statistical team category in which the Broncos rank in the Top 100 is rebounding, where they are 84th with 25.1 boards per game.
15. Eastern Kentucky – The Colonels are in the Top 30 in the country in 2-point (No. 2) and 3-point field percentage (No. 28) as well as in free throws (No. 19).
16. Albany – For the second year in row, the Great Danes went 9-7 during the American East Conference but won the outright title in the conference tourney.
Mt. Saint Mary’s – As a team, Mt. St. Mary’s shoots 44.1 percent from the field, 74.1 percent from the free throw line and averages 76.2 points.
WEST REGIONAL
1. Arizona – The Wildcats were the NCAA’s most defensively efficient squad, allowing just 0.865 points per possession.
2. Wisconsin – The Badgers are the best team in D-1 at protecting the basketball, averaging only 8.1 turnovers per game.
3. Creighton – The Bluejays led the NCAA in both 3-point shooting attempts and 3-point percentage, hitting 42 percent from behind the arc on over 24 attempts per game.
4. San Diego State – The Aztecs allowed teams to shoot just 42 percent from the floor and just 0.879 points per possession, both the third best marks in D-1 hoops.
5. Oklahoma – The Sooners’ 82.2 points per game was good for seventh in the country while their 75.9 points against was 308th.
6. Baylor – The Bears are the nation’s 24th-best rebounding team with 38.7 per game and seventh-best offensive rebounding team with 12.5 per game.
7. Oregon – The Ducks averaged 43.2 points per second half – the second-best mark in the country.
8. Gonzaga – The Zags had the NCAA’s second-best first-half scoring margin with 8.9 points per game.
9. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys finished the regular season 4-1 SU and ATS after losing seven in a row (1-6 ATS).
10. BYU – The Cougars were the nation’s third-best offensive team with 83.2 points per game but the Over only cashed in 13 of their 30 games.
11. Nebraska – The Cornhuskers had the nation’s 50th-best defense and played Under the total in 18 of 30 games during the regular season.
12. North Dakota State – North Dakota State’s Taylor Braun was the Summit League’s Player of the Year and scored 30 or more points on four different occasions this season.
13. New Mexico State – The Aggies won nine of 10 to end the regular season and have lost only twice since February.
14. UL Lafayette – The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost just once since February and their top two scorers, Elfrid Payton and Shawn Long, account for half the team’s 81.9 points per game.
15. American – The Eagles had the NCAA’s seventh-best defense, allowing only 53.6 points per game and won the Patriot League by holding BU to just 36 points in a 55-36 win.
16. Weber State – The Wildcats allowed opponents to score just 18.6 percent of their points off 3-pointers, the third lowest percentage in the country.
EAST REGIONAL
1. Virginia – The Cavaliers allowed 55.1 points per game, the lowest mark in the NCAA.
2. Villanova – The Wildcats’ 21-9 ATS mark was the sixth-best record in the nation.
3. Iowa State – The Cyclones are the most unselfish team in the nation averaging 18.5 assists per game.
4. Michigan State – If the Spartans don’t make the national semifinals, it will be the first senior class Tom Izzo has failed to take to a Final Four.
5. Cincinnati – The Bearcats’ record is the best in Mick Cronin’s tenure and he has not lost in the first round in their last three trips to the NCAA tournament.
6. North Carolina – The Tar Heels were third in the country, averaging 47.1 points per game off of 2-point buckets.
7. Connecticut – The Huskies finished 26-8 overall playing the nation’s 22nd-toughest schedule based on RPI rankings.
8. Memphis – The Tigers played the 19th most difficult non-conference schedule going 10-2 and 3-1 in neutral site games.
9. George Washington – The Colonials’ have only made it out of the first round only three times in their history and not once in the last 20 years.
10. Saint Joseph’s – The Hawks were 5-1 SU in neutral-site games this season.
11. Providence – The Friars’ hit free throws at a 78.1 percent clip, the second-best mark in the country.
12. Harvard – The Crimson led the Ivy League with a 26-4 record SU and had the league’s best ATS record at 16-8.
13. Delaware – The Blue Hens’ 36.6 points per game in the first half ranks 36th in the country while their 42.6 points in the second 20 minutes ranks seventh.
14. N.C. Central – The Eagles finished the season on a 20-game win streak.
15. UW Milwaukee – The Panthers’ 21.6 3-point attempts is 47th in the country but their 7.1 attempts made is only 85th.
16. Coastal Carolina – The Chanticleers finished the year 18-12 SU and played only the nation’s 196th-toughest schedule based on RPI rankings.
College Basketball Trend Report
TENNESSEE (22 – 12) vs. MASSACHUSETTS (24 – 8) – 3/21/2014, 2:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MERCER (26 – 8) vs. DUKE (26 – 8) – 3/21/2014, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
DUKE is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
COASTAL CAROLINA (21 – 12) vs. VIRGINIA (28 – 6) – 3/21/2014, 9:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VIRGINIA is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GEORGE WASHINGTON (24 – 8) vs. MEMPHIS (23 – 9) – 3/21/2014, 6:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 210-162 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 139-89 ATS (+41.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
STANFORD (21 – 12) vs. NEW MEXICO (27 – 6) – 3/21/2014, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
E KENTUCKY (24 – 9) vs. KANSAS (24 – 9) – 3/21/2014, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
E KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams – scoring 77+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CAL POLY-SLO (14 – 19) vs. WICHITA ST (34 – 0) – 3/21/2014, 7:10 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KANSAS ST (20 – 12) vs. KENTUCKY (24 – 10) – 3/21/2014, 9:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEBRASKA (19 – 12) vs. BAYLOR (24 – 11) – 3/21/2014, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEBRASKA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
NEBRASKA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEBRASKA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEBRASKA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LA-LAFAYETTE (23 – 11) vs. CREIGHTON (26 – 7) – 3/21/2014, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams – scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PROVIDENCE (23 – 11) vs. N CAROLINA (23 – 9) – 3/21/2014, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PROVIDENCE is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 139-106 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NC CENTRAL (28 – 5) vs. IOWA ST (26 – 7) – 3/21/2014, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SF AUSTIN ST (31 – 2) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 – 8) – 3/21/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TULSA (21 – 12) vs. UCLA (26 – 8) – 3/21/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UCLA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
UCLA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
TULSA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
TULSA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
TULSA is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
TULSA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TULSA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams – scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TULSA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams – scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WEBER ST (19 – 11) vs. ARIZONA (30 – 4) – 3/21/2014, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OKLAHOMA ST (21 – 12) vs. GONZAGA (28 – 6) – 3/21/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ROBERT MORRIS (22 – 13) at BELMONT (25 – 9) – 3/21/2014, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Dr Bob
Duke (-12½) over Mercer
Mercer is a pretty good team but the Bears are not in the same class with Duke and the Blue Devils have a tendency to beat up on lesser teams. These teams actually rate about the same defensively in compensated points per possession allowed but Duke’s offense is ranked #2 in compensated points per possession while Mercer ranks 114th offensively and depends too much on the 3-point shot, which isn’t good when facing a Blue Devils’ defense that defends the 3-point arc very well (30.5% allowed). Duke is once again relatively better against worse teams while Mercer’s mediocre defense was relatively much worse against better offensive teams, so Duke should be able to score very easily in this game. My ratings favor Duke by 16.3 points and a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation favors the Blue Devils. Playing in nearby Raleigh also helps, as teams playing in their home state are 144-92-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament games over the years. I’ll take Duke in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
Virginia Commonwealth (-6) over Stephen F. Austin
S.F. Austin has won 28 consecutive games but all of those wins were against teams rated 140th or worse in my ratings and their only game against a good team was at Texas back in November and the Lumberjacks lost that game by 10 points despite making 11 of 24 3-point shots to just 2 for 9 for Texas. In other words, they were lucky to only lose by 10 points. S.F Austin is actually a pretty good offensive team (46th in compensated points per possession) because they get a lot of layups off turnovers (#3 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage). However, their defense is terrible when not forcing turnovers so any good team that can handle their pressure is going to be a problem. This game against VCU is interesting because VCU is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and they did that against much better competition than SF Austin faced. The Rams should win the turnover battle and they’ll have an easier time scoring in the half court set than they normally do, as SF Austin is horrible defensively when they’re not forcing turnovers. My ratings favor VCU by 7 ½ points and the Rams apply to a 101-36-2 ATS first round situation. I’ll take VCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (I get 136 points).
Virginia (-21½) vs Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is pretty good defensively but they rank near the bottom of the nation in compensated offensive points per possession, which is the case due to a combination of bad shooting and sloppy play (297th in offensive turnover percentage). Coastal Carolina played two borderline NCAA Tournament caliber teams with mixed results – a respectable 10 point loss at Minnesota and a 29 point loss at Clemson. While I don’t expect much scoring from the Chanticleers their defense is good enough to stay within a big number in what should be a very low scoring game. My ratings favor Virginia by just 20½ points (with a total of 117 ½ points) but #1 seeds favored by 24 points or less are 16-5 ATS, so I’ll pass on this game.
George Washington (+3) over Memphis
These teams are very similar in their overall rating and very similar in their statistical characteristics with Memphis being a little better offensively and George Washington being a little better defensively. Both teams prefer to attack the rim and both teams are relatively worse defending the interior than they are defending the 3-point line. So, I expect both teams to have pretty good success offensively. My ratings favor Memphis by just 1 point and GW could get a boost if #2 scorer and top defender Kethan Savage can play some quality minutes. Savage missed 13 games and came back to play just 1 minute in their Atlantic 10 conference loss to VCU. But, Savage may be ready to contribute more, which would be a bonus considering his efficient shooting (52% FG) and great defense (1.9 steals per game). My ratings like the Colonials even if Savage doesn’t play at all (I get Memphis by 1 ½ points in that case) and if Savage is 100% and playing his normal 27 minutes per game then I’d favor GW by ½ a point. I’ll lean with George Washington plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I get 143.5 points but that number would be lower if Savage and his good defense return to the rotation).
Stanford (+3) over New Mexico
New Lobos’ coach Craig Neal was an assistant under former head coach Steve Alford and this year’s New Mexico team is very similar to last year’s #3 seeded squad that got ousted in the first round by Harvard. I picked Harvard to win that game because the Crimson could take advantage of New Mexico’s bad 3-point shooting defense and wouldn’t be stupid enough to try to challenge the Lobos inside (they were 9th in 2-point defense last year). This year’s team is 4th in the nation is 2-point defense (41.4% allowed) but they are just average defending the 3-point arc (34.4%) and don’t force turnovers (341st in defensive turnover percentage). New Mexico was able to beat #4 seed San Diego State twice because the Aztecs are a bad shooting team that couldn’t take advantage of the Lobos’ defensive weakness, which is also the reason they were able to beat Cincinnati, who ranks 207th in 3-point shooting. However, Stanford can shoot the ball (37.1% 3-pointers) but the Cardinal actually don’t take that many 3-point shots (260th in 3-point shots as a percentage of overall shots). If Johnny Dawkins is smart enough to realize he needs to shoot more 3-pointers then the Cardinal should win this game and my ratings only favor New Mexico by 1 point (with a total of 138½ points) without taking the match up into account. I’ll consider Stanford a Strong Opinion at +3 or more and I’d still lean with the Cardinal at less than +3.
Over (148) – Kansas (-14½) vs Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky is a highly efficient offensive team that makes 39% of their 3-point shots and ranks 3rd in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage at 56.2%. However, the Colonels are a horrible defensive team that has given up 56.1% on 2-point shots and 36.3% on 3-pointers while also sending opponents to the line a lot. Eastern Kentucky depends on creating turnovers, and they do rank 5th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, but when the Colonels are not creating turnovers then they’ll give up points readily to any offense with a pulse. Teams that can handle the ball and play good defense will destroy the Colonels, as was the case when they visited Wisconsin in mid-December (a 61-86 loss). The Colonels did play well in an overtime loss at VCU, but the Rams are a bad shooting team that can get a bit sloppy with the ball at times (16 turnovers against Eastern Kentucky). Other than those two tournament teams, the next best team the Colonels faced was NC State, a team that takes care of the ball and runs an efficient offense. The result was a 21 point loss for Eastern Kentucky. On the plus side, Eastern Kentucky is 12th in 3-point shots taken percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and Kansas ranks 256th in the nation defending the 3-point arc (35.9% allowed). The Jayhawks are also turnover prone, ranking 232nd in offensive turnover percentage. Without injured shot blocker Joel Embiid (2.6 blocks per game) the Jayhawks are now more vulnerable inside and Eastern Kentucky’s efficient offense should have success. The Jayhawks will score at will though but relatively the matchup works for the Colonels and my ratings favor Kansas by 14.3 points with Embiid out. Unfortunately, Kansas applies to a 90-37-4 ATS first round situation that will force me to stay away from the side in this game. However, my math projects 154 total points with Embiid out and the Jayhawks have gone Over the total in 4 of the 5 games their defensive star has missed this season. I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 150 or lower and I’ll lean with Kansas at -15 or less based on the favorable situation.
Kansas State (+5) over Kentucky
Kentucky’s good play in the SEC Tournament (3 spread wins), combined with the poor recent play of Kansas State (0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS) has skewed this line some, as my ratings favor Kentucky by just 3 ½ points. While it’s certainly possible that Kentucky is suddenly a better and more consistent team, we shouldn’t forget that the Wildcats had lost 5 straight to the spread before the SEC Tournament and that two of their good performances were against teams that didn’t make the NCAA Tournament field. The other, a 1 point loss to Florida, was close because Florida couldn’t make their free throws (7 for 17) to close out a game that they led comfortably most of way. Kentucky will no doubt dominate on the boards in this game but that is already factored in to the line. Kentucky is still just 3-8 against teams in my top-50 while Kansas State is 7-8 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams. I’ll lean with Kansas State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I project 132½ points).
Nebraska (+3½) over Baylor
The Huskers won 10 of their last 13 games and beat Ohio State, Michigan State (on the road), and Wisconsin and the reason for the sudden turnaround after a mediocre start to the season was an injury to ineffective point guard Deverll Biggs. Biggs only shot 43% from the floor and averaged 2.3 turnovers against just 1.5 assists per game. Biggs’ injury had resulted in fewer mistakes, as the Cornhuskers had a turnover margin of -1.4 per game before Biggs’ injury and they’re +1.3 in turnovers without Biggs. The defense has also improved, as Nebraska has allowed just 39.4% shooting without Biggs compared to 43.8% FG allowed with him. It might be tough to get past Baylor because the Huskers aren’t likely to take advantage of Baylor’s bad 3-point defense (280th in the nation) or keep the Bears off the offensive glass but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game straight up and Baylor’s overall defense is not that good (114th in compensated points per possession). The value is certainly with the underrated Cornhuskers and I’ll lean with Nebraska plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (my math projects 130 total points).
Creighton (-13½) over Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Lafayette has a really good player in Elfrid Payton, who averages 19.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game while making 51% of his shots, which is incredibly good for a point guard. Payton team with 6’9 forward Shawn Long (18.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game) to give the Ragin’ Cajuns two really good and diverse players to deal with. UL Lafayette was able to beat marginally good teams Louisiana Tech and Georgia State but they were beaten soundly by better teams – losing to Arkansas by 13 points, to Baylor by 19 points and to Louisville by 39 points. Lafayette will be able to score against Creighton but they won’t be able to stop the Bluejays #1 ranked offense from outscoring them – most likely by a comfortable margin. My ratings favor Creighton by 13 points, so the line is about right, and the Blue Jays apply to a 64-19-2 ATS first round situation while Lafayette applies to a negative 13-38-6 ATS first round letdown situation based on their upset win in their conference tournament final. I don’t want to give up any line value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll consider Creighton a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less. I’ll also lean with the Over (154½), as my predicted total is 160 points.
North Carolina (-4) over Providence
Providence made a surprising run to win the Big East Tournament and take themselves off the bubble. The Friars actually beat Creighton twice this season as the nation’s #1 3-point shooting team (42.2%) made only 24.5% (12 for 49) from beyond the arc in the two losses to the Friars. Providence is going to need more good fortune to advance in this tournament, as they simply aren’t good enough to beat a good team without some 3-point shooting variance going their way (they were 1-5 against the other NCAA caliber teams that they faced). North Carolina struggled through the first half of the season at 11-7 and then got red hot starting in late January and ran off 12 consecutive wins before losing their final two games to Duke and Pitt. The Heels’ hot streak was largely a case of 3-point shooting variance, as UNC made 38% of their 3-point shots during their 12 game winning streak while making only 33.5% from beyond the arc for the season. North Carolina is actually a relatively bad shooting team, as they rank 208th in 3-point shooting and 122nd in 2-point shooting percentage. However, the Heels rebound a lot of their misses (18th in offensive rebound percentage) and they were actually relatively much better offensively against the better defensive teams that they faced. North Carolina’s victories against high seeded teams were against teams that aren’t particularly good defensive rebounding teams, as they were able to beat Louisville (246nd in defensive rebound percentage), Kentucky (105th), and split two games with Duke (191st) while getting crushed by Virginia, who ranks 8th in the nation in defensive rebounding. Providence is a decent defensive rebounding team, ranking 99th in the nation, and my ratings suggest that the line is fair (I get UNC by 4.2 points) but the Friars apply to a negative 13-38 ATS first round situation and I’ll lean with North Carolina at -4 points or less. I have no opinion on the total (the math projects 142 total points).
NC Central (+8½) over Iowa State
Iowa State started the season beating the crap out of bad teams then struggled against better competition at the beginning of the Big 12 season. However, the Cyclones certainly have played better recently and just won the Big 12 Tournament with wins over NCAA Tournament teams Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor. However, those wins set up Iowa State in a negative 17-52-2 ATS first round situation that has me looking at NC Central. NC Central has won 20 consecutive games and did win at NC State early in the season but they also lost to Cincinnati, Wichita State, and Maryland by an average of 13 points. The Eagles actually are a pretty good team that I rank as the 80th best team in the nation and they can beat a team that doesn’t defend particularly well because their good defense should enable them to compete if they can score near the rim (NC Central is a horrible 3-point shooting team). NC Central also depends on turnovers to win (#5 in the nation in opponent’s turnover percentage) but 1st round opponent Iowa State is #9 in the nation in lowest offensive turnover percentage and is pretty good defending the paint, which is a bad match up for the Eagles. My ratings favor Iowa State by 8½ points, so the line is fair, and the situation certainly favors the dog here. I’m not going to play this as a Best Bet but I’ll lean with NC Central at +8 points or more. My math projects 145 total points, which isn’t much of an edge.
Tulsa (+8½) over UCLA
Tulsa won their final 11 games and the Golden Hurricane really picked up their defensive intensity during their late season run and ended the season 14th in the nation in 2-point defense at 42.9% allowed on shots inside the arc. That could be trouble for a UCLA team that takes most of their shots inside the 3-point arc and the Bruins aren’t defensively good enough to completely shut down a mediocre Tulsa offense. If UCLA spends too much time basking in the glow of their Pac 12 Championship win over Arizona the Bruins could find themselves subject to a rude awakening, as my ratings based on current personnel favor UCLA by just 5½ points against at UTEP team that is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games (and 17-3 ATS in their last 20). I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at +8 points or more. My math projects 146 total points.
Arizona (-20) over Weber State
Weber State was the best team in a really down year for the Big Sky Conference and the Wildcats did not beat a team this season that was ranked inside my top 200. Their 4 games against teams ranked in my top 150 were not very good collectively, losing by an average of 15 points to BYU, Colorado State, Utah State and UCLA (by 23 points) and their average game rating in those 4 games was 4 points lower than their overall game rating which is not