NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, February 27 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
This late in the season, I figured every NBA coach was safe from being fired until the offseason. I mean, what’s the point of dumping a guy with only 25 games left or so? Now I’m not so sure, mostly about Washington’s Randy Wittman, a guy who has had only one good season there. His Wizards are in a complete tailspin and I might start getting my references ready if I’m Wittman. Especially is his team loses at Phillyon Friday. Here’s a look at every game on the schedule.
Wizards at 76ers (+10, 192.5)
Washington lost its fifth straight and 10th in 12 on Wednesday, 97-77 at Minnesota. The Wolves are better, but losing by 20!? And after leading by 15 at one point? Paul Pierce sat with a bruised knee and Bradley Beal was out again with his foot injury, but Beal says he hopes to play Friday. I’m skeptical. Philly lost its fifth straight Wednesday, 104-88 at Milwaukee. The Sixers had just 12 first-quarter points, shooting 5-for-20 with nine turnovers, and the game was already over. Washington won the only meeting this season, 117-76 at home on Jan. 19. The Wizards, who had seven players in double figures, went on a 20-3 run for a 27-11 lead late in the first quarter and the Sixers pretty much laid down.
Key trends: The Wizards are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 after an ATS loss. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The “over/under” is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.
Early lean: Sixers and under.
Cavaliers at Pacers (+6, 199.5)
Certainly major letdown possibilities here for Cleveland after hosting Golden State on Thursday. Indiana certainly will have fresh legs as it has been off since a 105-92 loss in Oklahoma City on Tuesday ended the Pacers’ three-game winning streak. Rodney Stuckey, who had been averaging 25.3 points off the bench during the winning streak, finished with only five points. The Pacers and Cavs have split two meetings, each winning at home. Indiana upset Cleveland 103-99 on Feb. 6 to end Cleveland’s season-high 12-game winning streak.
Key trends: Indiana is 4-0 ATS in its past four at home. The over is 4-0 in the Pacers’ past four vs. the East.
Early lean: I’ll take the points here. Go over.
Knicks at Pistons (-12.5, 195.5)
New York dropped its eighth straight on Wednesday, 115-94 at Boston. You know things are bad when Andrea Bargnani is your leading scorer, and he was for New York with 17 points. Detroit last played Tuesday, losing 102-93 at home to Cleveland despite leading by 14 in the third quarter. Reggie Jackson had 22 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in his second game with Detroit. Tayshaun Prince started at small forward in his first game as a Piston since he was traded to Memphis in January 2013. The Pistons are 2-0 vs. the Knicks, holding New York to an average of 88 points.
Key trends: The Pistons are 8-0 ATS in their past eight following an ATS loss. The under is 9-3 in New York’s past 12 on the road.
Early lean: Pistons and under.
Magic at Hawks (-12.5, 199)
Orlando lost a crusher at home on Wednesday, 93-90 in OT to Miami. The Magic were up eight points with less than a minute to play. Now rookie forward Aaron Gordon is hurt again. He left late in the first half with a sprained right ankle and did not return. Atlanta won its second straight Wednesday, 104-87 over Dallas, which was missing three starters. The Hawks have the best record against the West in the NBA at 16-4. These two played a home-and-home in mid-December and the Hawks won 87-81 at home but lost the next night 100-99 in Orlando. Tobias Harris hit a 13-foot buzzer-beater to end Atlanta’s nine-game winning streak at the time.
Key trends: The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta’s past four overall.
Early lean: Hawks and under.
Warriors at Raptors (pick’em, 214)
Tough second of a back-to-back for the Warriors as they were in Cleveland in one of the games of the year on Thursday. Toronto brings a three-game skid into this one, all on the road and not topping 92 points in any of them. Toronto is 12-10 against the Western Conference this season. The Raptors are one of six Eastern Conference teams with a .500-plus record against the West (Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, Cleveland and Milwaukee). However, the Raptors were pounded 126-109 in Golden State on Jan. 2. Steph Curry had 32 points and 12 assists, while Draymond Green finished with 16 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career triple-double. DeMar DeRozan was out for Toronto.
Key trends: Toronto is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The under is 10-1 in the Raptors’ last 11 home games vs. teams with a winning road record.
Early lean: Raptors and under.
Hornets at Celtics (-4, 194.5)
Charlotte ended a five-game losing streak Wednesday, 98-86 in Chicago against a Bulls team clearly flat from the Derrick Rose injury. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had 18 points and 12 rebounds. The plodding Hornets had 17 fast-break points, a season high. Boston won its second straight Wednesday by blasting the Knicks. New additions Jonas Jerebko (20 points) and Isaiah Thomas (19) led the C’s in scoring. The Celtics outscored the Knicks 77-45 in the second half. Boston improved to 6-4 in February, guaranteeing the team’s first winning record in a month since going 1-0 in October. If that even counts. Charlotte is 2-0 vs. Boston this season, winning each by nine points. The most recent (Jan. 5) was when the Hornets didn’t have Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson due to injury.
Key trends: Boston is 5-0 ATS in its past five vs. the East. The under is 6-0 in Charlotte’s past six on the road.
Early lean: Hornets and under.
Clippers at Grizzlies (-4, 197)
L.A. lost its second straight Wednesday, 110-105 in Houston, which has won just two of the past 13 meetings. DeAndre Jordan continued putting up huge numbers with 22 points and 19 rebounds. Memphis was surprised at Sacramento on Wednesday, 102-90. Vince Carter missed his 10th consecutive game with a left foot tendon injury, and he won’t play here. Memphis is 2-0 vs. the Clippers this season and has totally shut L.A.’s offense down. The Grizz beat the visiting Clips 90-87 on Monday. Memphis led by eight before L.A. went on a 7-0 run to close to 88-87. After Mike Conley stripped Chris Paul, he got fouled and made both. The game ended with Matt Barnes throwing the ball into the hands of Courtney Lee. Paul was great otherwise with 30 points and 10 assists.
Key trends: The Clippers are 1-9 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The under is 8-0 in Memphis’ past eight at home.
Early lean: Grizzlies and under.
Nets at Rockets (TBA)
Brooklyn’s two-game winning streak ended with a 102-96 loss in New Orleans on Wednesday. Jarrett Jack returned after missing two games with a hamstring injury and had 15 points. Houston won its third in a row Wednesday, 110-105 at home against the Clippers, ending a six-game skid against L.A. The Rockets opened the fourth quarter with a 15-1 run to take a 99-86 lead. James Harden had a bit of an off night, going 4-for-13, but did finish with 21 points and 10 assists. Houston starting point guard Pat Beverley missed his second straight game with flu-like symptoms. Harden was seen limping afterward (thus the TBA). Brooklyn lost at home to Houston 113-99 on Jan. 12 in a game that Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett (who was ejected) had a little skirmish. There will be no replay with Howard hurt and KG in Minnesota. Harden had 30 for the Rockets.
Key trends: The Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 10-4 in Brooklyn’s past 14 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Early lean: Wait on Harden, who didn’t seem to be concerned.
Heat at Pelicans (+1.5, 195.5)
Miami staged a near-miracle rally to win 93-90 in OT in Orlando on Wednesday. The Heat were down eight with less than a minute left but then the Magic started missing free throws and giving the ball away. Hassan Whiteside had 15 points and 13 rebounds. New Orleans, again without three of its best players, beat Brooklyn 102-96 on Wednesday for its third straight win. Quincy Pondexter had a career-high 25 points. The Heat lost at home to New Orleans 105-91 last Saturday. Both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson left that game with injuries, and they remain out. Eric Gordon had 24 points. That was Miami’s first game with Goran Dragic and first since learning Chris Bosh was out for the season.
Key trends: Miami is 0-4 ATS in its past four vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ past six.
Early lean: Heat and over.
Timberwolves at Bulls (-5.5, 196.5)
Chicago played its first game without Derrick Rose on Wednesday, and clearly the players weren’t into it, losing 98-86 at home to a struggling Charlotte team. Aaron Brooks moved into the starting lineup and had 12 points and four assists in 28 minutes. “We all were affected by it,” Pau Gasol admitted of the Rose injury. Minnesota clearly was fired up by Kevin Garnett’s debut back in a Wolves uniform as they pounded visiting Washington 97-77 on Wednesday. KG had five points and eight rebounds in 19 minutes. The 77 points allowed were a season-low for the Wolves. Chicago visited Minnesota way back on Nov. 1 and won 106-105. Jimmy Butler taught rookie Andrew Wiggins a lesson, drawing a foul on a jumper with 0.2 seconds left and then hitting the winning two free throws. No Rose in that game or Taj Gibson.
Key trends: The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their past nine at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over is 7-0 in Minnesota’s past seven following an ATS win.
Early lean: Bulls and over.
Jazz at Nuggets (TBA)
Utah’s two-game winning streak ended Wednesday, 100-97 at home to the putrid Lakers. The Jazz still haven’t won three in a row this season. Rudy Gobert tied a career high with 16 points to go along with 14 rebounds and three blocks. Denver lost its fourth straight Wednesday, 110-96 at home to Phoenix. It was loss No. 8 in a row at home. The team record is 11. Denver was without Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur and promising rookie Jusuf Nurkic both left the game with injuries. Denver won the lone meeting so far, 103-101 in Utah on Dec. 1. The Jazz rallied from a 22-point deficit to tie in the final minutes, but Ty Lawson hit the key jumper with just under 30 seconds left. Utah big man Derrick Favors was out with an illness. That was back when Denver was playing well.
Key trends: The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.
Early lean: Wait on all those Denver injuries.
Spurs at Kings (+5, 200.5)
San Antonio lost its fourth straight on Wednesday, and if the Spurs aren’t careful they might slip to the No. 8 seed. They were beaten 111-95 in Portland. Tony Parker had another lousy game with just two points. He might be hurt. Sacramento improved to 2-1 under George Karl with Wednesday’s 102-90 upset of Memphis. The Kings outscored the Grizzlies 26-13 in the fourth quarter. The Spurs and Kings have split two meetings, each winning at home. San Antonio had won nine straight and 21 of 22 in this series entering the season.
Key trends: The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The under has hit in the past four in Sacramento.
Early lean: Spurs and under.
Bucks at Lakers (+4, 194)
Milwaukee ended a two-game losing streak with a 104-88 home win against Philly on Wednesday. Michael Carter-Williams made his Bucks debut, against his former team, and had seven points and eight assists in 17 minutes. L.A. has won two straight, winning 100-97 in Utah on Wednesday despite using a laughable starting five of Ryan Kelly, Carlos Boozer, Robert Sacre, Wayne Ellington and Jordan Clarkson, who had a career-high 25 points. L.A. lost in Milwaukee 113-105 in overtime on Feb. 4. O.J. Mayo hit the tying 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds left to send it into OT. Former Buck Brandon Knight had 12 of the Bucks’ 19 points in OT. The Lakers didn’t have big man Jordan Hill then.
Key trends: Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its past six after a win. The over is 5-0 in L.A.’s last five vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Bucks and under.
Thunder at Trail Blazers (-4, 206)
Oklahoma City was in Phoenix on Thursday. Portland beat visiting San Antonio 111-95 on Wednesday to end a two-game slide. LaMarcus Aldridge returned after missing a game and had 11 points and 13 rebounds. Portland improved to 25-4 when leading after three quarters. Portland leads the season series with the Thunder 2-0, winning easily on opening night at home and then in late December 115-111 in OKC in overtime. In that one, both Damian Lillard, who hit the tying 3-pointer with three seconds left in regulation, and Russell Westbrook each had 40 points. Westbrook missed a potential winner at the regulation buzzer. Kevin Durant didn’t play in either game. The Blazers haven’t won three straight in this series since 2008-09.
Key trends: Portland is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 Friday games. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Early lean: Blazers and over.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27 SCORE
(7:05) Washington Wizards 103 – PHILADELPHIA 100 _____ _____
(7:05) Cleveland Cavaliers 106 – INDIANA PACERS 94 _____ _____
(7:35) DETROIT PISTONS 107 – New York Knicks 86 _____ _____
(7:35) ATLANTA HAWKS 98 – Orlando Magic 91 _____ _____
(7:35) Golden State Warriors 113 – TORONTO 109 _____ _____
(7:35) BOSTON CELTICS 98 – Charlotte Hornets 89 _____ _____
(8:05) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 105 – LA Clippers 104 _____ _____
(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 113 – Brooklyn Nets 98 _____ _____
(8:05) NEW ORLEANS 106 – Miami Heat 94 (ESPN) _____ _____
(8:05) CHICAGO BULLS 108 – Minnesota Wolves 98 _____ _____
(9:05) DENVER NUGGETS 95 – Utah Jazz 94 _____ _____
(10:05) San Antonio Spurs 102 – SACRAMENTO 96 _____ _____
(10:35) Milwaukee Bucks 100 – LA LAKERS 94 _____ _____
(10:35) PORTLAND 117 – Oklahoma City 107 (ESPN) _____ _____
BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT (2), NEW ORLEANS, PORTLAND.
NBA
Hot Teams
— Cavaliers won four in row, 18 of last 20 games (8-3 last 11 AF). Pacers won six of their last eight games (5-1 last six HU).
— Pistons are 6-4 in their last ten games (4-1 last five HF).
— Orlando won three of last four games, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Atlanta won 24 of its last 28 games (2-5 last seven HF).
— Warriors won five of their last seven games (4-2 AU).
— Celtics won seven of last nine games (3-0 last three HF).
— Memphis won 12 of its last 15 games (8-3 last 11 HF).
— Rockets won/covered their last three games (6-1-1 last eight HF).
— Miami won three of its last four games (5-1 AF). Pelicans won their last three games (8-2 HU).
— Minnesota is 5-3 in its last eight games (10-3 last 13 AU). Chicago is 6-2 in its last eight games (2-5 last seven HF).
— Jazz won four of their last six games (0-0 AF).
— Kings are 2-1 with Karl as coach, 2-0 at home (5-2 last seven HU).
— Bucks won ten of their last thirteen games (5-0 AF).
— Thunder won seven of their last eight games (2-9 last 11 AU). Blazers won five of their last six games (3-1 last four HF).
Cold Teams
— 76ers lost last five games (6-1 last seven HU). Washington lost five in row, 10 of last 12 games (2-7 last nine AF).
— Knicks lost their last eight games (0-5 vs spread in last five).
— Toronto lost its last three games (4-10 last 14 HF).
— Hornets lost five of last six games (7-1 last eight AU).
— Clippers are 5-7 in their last 12 games (4-8 AU).
— Nets lost four of their last six games (3-4 last seven AU).
— Denver lost ten of its last eleven games (2-6 last eight HU).
— Spurs are 0-4 since All-Star break (1-5 last six AF).
— Lakers lost nine of their last eleven games, but won last two (3-1 last four HU).
Series Records
— 76ers lost their last four games with Washington.
— Pacers won 15 of last 18 games with Cleveland.
— Knicks lost four of last five games with Detroit.
— Hawks won 13 of last 16 games with Orlando.
— Warriors won four of last five games with Toronto.
— Hornets are 5-3 in last eight games with Boston.
— Clippers lost eight of last nine games with Memphis.
— Rockets won 11 of last 12 games with Brooklyn.
— Heat lost last two games with New Orleans, after winning previous five series games.
— Bulls won nine of last ten games with Minnesota.
— Nuggets won five of last seven games with Utah.
— Spurs won 20 of last 22 games with Sacramento.
— Lakers lost six of last seven games with Milwaukee.
— Thunder lost four of last six games with Portland.
Totals
— Six of last seven Washington road games stayed under six of last eight Philly games went over.
— Last three Cleveland games stayed under the total.
— Five of last seven New York road games stayed under.
— 10 of last 13 Orlando games stayed under the total.
— Five of last six Golden State road games stayed under.
— Last five Charlotte road games stayed under total; seven of last nine Boston games went over.
— Last seven Memphis home games stayed under.
— Over is 3-1-1 in last five Houston home games.
— Seven of last eight New Orleans home games went over.
— Five of last seven Chicago home games stayed under.
— Five of last seven Utah games stayed under total.
— 13 of last 16 San Antonio road games stayed under.
— Last four Laker home games went over the total.
— Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Portland home games.
Back-to-Backs
— Cleveland is 6-9 if they played night before, 5-5 on road.
— Golden State is 5-5 if they played night before, 2-1 if they lost.
— Thunder is 8-3-1 vs spread if they played night before.
Today’s NBA Picks
Minnesota at Chicago
The Timberwolves (13-43 SU) head to Chicago tonight to face a Bulls team that is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Minnesota is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by only 4.
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2)
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27
Game 801-802: Washington at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.711; Philadelphia 114.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+8 1/2); Over
Game 803-804: Cleveland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 125.180; Indiana 126.129
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: New York at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 106.096; Detroit 124.272
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 18; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 13; 196
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-13); Under
Game 807-808: Orlando at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.533; Atlanta 127.093
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 15 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 11; 197
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); Under
Game 809-810: Golden State at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 126.122; Toronto 122.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 221
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 215
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1); Over
Game 811-812: Charlotte at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.728; Boston 115.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2 1/2); Under
Game 813-814: LA Clippers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.516; Memphis 129.453
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 199
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Under
Game 815-816: Brooklyn at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 113.954; Houston 126.160
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 12; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8 1/2); N/A
Game 817-818: Miami at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.854; New Orleans 114.414
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); Under
Game 819-820: Minnesota at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.233; Chicago 122.040
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: Utah at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.521; Denver 111.190
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4 1/2); N/A
Game 823-824: San Antonio at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 117.395; Sacramento 118.203
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 205
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 100 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+4 1/2); Over
Game 825-826: Milwaukee at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 117.941; LA Lakers 116.580
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+5 1/2); Under
Game 827-828: Oklahoma City at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.221; Portland 126.335
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4 1/2); Over
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NBA | CHARLOTTE at BOSTON
Play Against – Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NBA | MIAMI at NEW ORLEANS
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, on Friday nights
24-7 since 1997. ( 77.4% | 18.3 units )
NBA | WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points off a road loss, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )
Game of the Day: Warriors at Raptors
Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors (-1, 215)
The Toronto Raptors finished out a four-game road trip with three straight losses and have the misfortune to host the NBA-best Golden State Warriors on Friday before heading back out on the road. The Raptors get a bit of a break as the Warriors come in on the second night of a back-to-back after battling to a 110-99 loss at Cleveland on Thursday. Golden State is playing its third game in four nights and is slumping on the defensive end.
Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry had an especially tough trip and had some harsh words for himself after practice Thursday. “I’m trash,” Lowry told reporters. “I’m trying to figure it out right now. … We’re just trying to get back to our winning ways.” Lowry scored 22 points at Golden State on Jan. 2, but Stephen Curry countered with 32 and Draymond Green posted a triple-double as the Warriors cruised to a 126-105 victory.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), SportsNet (Toronto)
LINE HISTORY: After the Warriors game Thursday night, the line opened at a pick’em with a total of 214. By the morning on Friday the lines had shifted to Toronto -1 and 215.
INJURY REPORT: Warriors – N/A Raptors – N/A
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Toronto is not in good current form; the Raptors are just 1-3 SU and ATS since the All-Star break. In fairness, Toronto played all four of those games on the road. They return home where they are 21-9 SU this season, and they’ll have two full days of rest to get ready for this game. Golden State played on Thursday night in Cleveland, and this will be their third straight road game, so the Warriors are not in the best of spots for this game.” – Steve Merril
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened Golden State versus Toronto at a pick ‘em with a total of 215. About 30 minutes after we opened, we got sharp bet on the Raptors, so we moved to current number of Toronto -1. Much better spot for the Raptors, as they will be well rested, while Golden State will have deal with traveling from Cleveland.” – Mike Jerome of TopBet.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (44-11 SU, 33-21-1 ATS, 26-29 O/U): Golden State had no answer on Thursday for LeBron James, who scored a season-high 42 points to lead the Cavaliers. The Warriors came into the trip tops in the NBA in field-goal percentage defense but have allowed each of the last three opponents to shoot 46.8 percent or better from the floor. Curry missed the opener of the trip with a foot injury and had a streak of 12 straight games scoring 20 or more points come to an end when he was limited to 18 on 5-of-17 shooting Thursday.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (37-20 SU, 27-29-1 ATS, 30-27 O/U): Toronto is holding down the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference but is just one game up on hard-charging Cleveland and needs to figure out some things on offense after failing to reach 100 points in any of the last three games and five of six. Lowry is 14-of-47 from the floor over the last three games, including 3-of-22 from beyond the arc. The All-Star guard is not getting much help from backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan, who is 17-of-50 from the field in the last three games with more turnovers (nine) than assists (eight).
TRENDS:
*Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.
*Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
*Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 overall.
*Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 vs. NBA Pacific.
CONSENSUS: 62.68 percent are behind the Warriors with 56.9 percent on the over.
POINTWISE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
KEY RELEASES
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27 SCORE
(6:30) Harvard 69 – CORNELL 54 _____ _____
(7:00) BROWN 57 – Pennsylvania 52 _____ _____
(7:00) YALE 73 – Princeton 68 _____ _____
(7:00) COLUMBIA 76 – Dartmouth 60 _____ _____
(10:00) CLEVELAND STATE 67 – Valparaiso 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____
BEST BETS: PRINCETON, COLUMBIA.
College basketball
Akron lost its last four games, all by 5 or less points; Ohio (+2.5) upset the Zips 83-82 at home Feb 4, making 11-18 from arc in game they were down 11 in with 12:30 left. Zips made 18-36 from arc, were 0-6 on foul line. Ohio lost its last five games, is 2-5 as road underdog, losing last four on foreign soil, three by 11+ points. Akron is 5-2-1 as a home favorite, but lost last two home games, to Toledo/Miami. MAC single digit home favorites are 15-13-1 vs spread.
Harvard has one-game lead in Ivy with four games left they beat Cornell 61-40 (-11) at home 13 nights ago, after trailing 24-21 at half- Big Red hit dismal 23.9% from floor. Crimson won its last eight games, four by 8 or less points they’re 3-1 as road favorites, winning all five away games, by 11-3-25-2-2 points. Cornell lost its last three games by 21-1-11 points they’re 2-3 at home, with losses by 2-3-8 points. Ivy League home dogs are 5-8 against spread.
Brown (+2) made 9-17 on arc, won 71-55 at Penn Feb 14, after trailing at half by a hoop; Bruins are 2-3 at home, beating Dartmouth by 2, Cornell by 1- they lost to Harvard in OT at home. Quakers lost last five games (1-4 vs spread) with four losses by 16+ points; they’re 3-2 as underdogs on road, with losses by 4-27-23-5 points and win at Cornell. Ivy League home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-5-1 vs spread.
Yale trails Harvard by game with four to play; they play Crimson a week from now, so need to keep pace. Bulldogs (-2.5) won 81-73 at Princeton Feb 14, game they trailed by 8 with 10:35 left- both teams made 62%+ of 2-point shots. Yale is 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 4-15-11, with losses to Harvard/Columbia. Tigers are 3-0 as road underdogs, with road losses by 8-8 points, wins at Columbia/Dartmouth. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 5-7 vs spread.
Dartmouth (-3) made 7-12 from arc, beat Columbia 61-49 at home Feb 14 in game they led by hoop at half, but they’re just 2-6 in last eight games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing all four road games by 7-11-15-3 points. Lions won last two games, covered four of last five, upsetting Yale in last game but they’re 2-3 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-27 points. Ivy League home teams are 9-12-1 against the spread.
Valparaiso leads three other teams by game in Horizon, one of which is Cleveland State, who Crusaders (-5) beat 58-56 at home Jan 10, surviving 19 turnovers (-9). Valpo won its last seven games, 4-2 on Horizon road, with losses by 1 and in OT. Cleveland State lost three of last four games, is 2-4 as home favorite, even though they won all seven home games in conference. Underdogs are 10-5 vs spread in Horizon games with spread of 3 or less points.
St Peter’s (1-3) beat Marist 79-67 at home Jan 4, making 10-20 from arc with +7 (14-7) turnover ratio. Peacocks lost last three games, scoring an average of 51.3 ppg they’re 3-5 in last eight road games, 1-1 as favorites on road- they’re 3-8 overall as MAAC favorites. Marist lost its last five games, is 2-4 as home underdog- four of their last six games were decided by 4 or less points. MAAC home teams are 11-17-1 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Iona (-1.5) won 70-67 at Manhattan two weeks ago, in rivalry game that saw Iona turn ball over 21 times (-10) but make 11-18 from arc. Iona won its last ten games but last four were by 4 or less- they’re 4-5 as favorite at home, despite winning all nine home games. Jaspers are 3-0 since losing to Gaels; they’ve won five of last seven road games, are 3-2 as underdogs on MAAC road. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.
Siena lost seven of last nine games, losing last three, all at home. Saints are 3-3 as road underdogs, with only two road losses by more than eight points- they (-3.5) pounded Quinnipiac 88-67 at home Dec 5, making 58% of its 2-pointers, with +8 (16-8) turnover ratio and only -3 ratio on boards in game that was 40-38 at half. Bobcats lost their last three also, losing two home games by total of five points- they’re 3-5 as favorites at home. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.
Canisius (-4) won 64-50 at Fairfield Jan 22, in brickfest where teams hit a combined 20-44 on foul line. Griffins won three of their last four games, are 3-4 as a home favorite, also losing three of last four at home. Fairfield snapped losing streak at 10 in last game Saturday; they’re 4-3-1 as road underdogs, losing last six away games, four by 9 or less points. Stags are turning ball over 20.7% of time, despite playing third-slowest tempo in league. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.
NCAA Basketball Picks
Siena at Quinnipiac
The Saints head to Quinnipiac tonight to face a Bobcats team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall. Siena is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by only 6 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+9)
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27
Game 829-830: Harvard at Cornell (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 60.749; Cornell 51.342
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-6 1/2)
Game 831-832: Pennsylvania at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 45.565; Brown 48.982
Dunkel Line: Brown by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Brown by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+5 1/2)
Game 833-834: Princeton at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 53.948; Yale 63.843
Dunkel Line: Yale by 10
Vegas Line: Yale by 7
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-7)
Game 835-836: Dartmouth at Columbia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 52.419; Columbia 56.007
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+5 1/2)
Game 837-838: Valparaiso at Cleveland State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.518; Cleveland State 62.133
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-2 1/2)
Game 839-840: St. Peter’s at Marist (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter’s 53.466; Marist 49.878
Dunkel Line: St. Peter’s by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Peter’s by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter’s (-1 1/2)
Game 841-842: Manhattan at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.709; Iona 60.172
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 8
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+8)
Game 843-844: Siena at Quinnipiac (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 47.602; Quinnipiac 54.191
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 9
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+9)
Game 845-846: Fairfield at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 45.729; Canisius 57.227
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-8 1/2)
Game 847-848: Ohio at Akron (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 49.141; Akron 57.012
Dunkel Line: Akron by 8
Vegas Line: Akron by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+10 1/2)
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | SIENA at QUINNIPIAC
Play Against – Home teams as a favorite or pick (QUINNIPIAC) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, playing with 5 or 6 days rest
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
CBB | ST PETERS at MARIST
Play Against – A home team vs. the money line (MARIST) after 4 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (<=20%) playing a team with a losing record
85-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.9% | 31.5 units )
7-7 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.5 units )
CBB | OHIO U at AKRON
Play Against – A home team vs. the 1rst half line (AKRON) after 4 or more consecutive losses, on Friday nights
126-70 since 1997. ( 64.3% | 49.0 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 2.6 units )
Today’s NHL Picks
Chicago at Tampa Bay
The Blackhawks head to Tampa Bay tonight to face a Lightning team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games versus Central Division opponents. Chicago is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1.
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+120)
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27
Game 1-2: Washington at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.297; Washington 10.792
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington -140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+120); Over
Game 3-4: Boston at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.430; New Jersey 10.772
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Over
Game 5-6: Calgary at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.373; NY Islanders 12.529
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-175); Under
Game 7-8: Chicago at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.696; Tampa Bay 10.600
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+120); Under
Game 9-10: Colorado at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.184; Dallas 11.410
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-125); Over
Game 11-12: Los Angeles at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.017; Anaheim 12.134
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-110); Under
2014-15 NHL
Hot teams
— Devils won four of their last five games.
— Islanders won eight of their last twelve games.
— Blackhawks won last three road games, allowing three goals. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in game following its last seven losses.
— Avalanche won four of its last six games.
— Los Angeles won eight of its last nine games. Ducks won three of last four.
Cold teams
— Bruins lost seven of their last eight games.
— Calgary lost three of its last four games.
— Washington lost last two games, after winning eight of previous ten. Carolina is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
— Dallas Stars lost last four games, allowing 22 goals.
Series records
— Bruins won 10 of last 12 games with New Jersey.
— Islanders won six of last nine games with Calgary.
— Hurricanes lost four of last five games with Washington.
— Lightning won five of last six games with Chicago.
— Dallas Stars lost seven of last eight games with Colorado.
— Ducks won five of last eight games with the Kings.
Totals
— Last five Boston road games went over total.
— Four of last five Islander home games went over.
— Six of last seven Carolina home games stayed under.
— Four of last five Lightning home games went over.
— Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Colorado road games.
— Eight of last eleven LA road games stayed under.
Back-to-back
— Chicago is 4-2 on road if it played night before.
— Kings are 2-4 if they played the night before.
NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take #837 Valparaiso over Cleveland State (10 p.m., Friday, Feb. 27)
Doc’s Sports has nailed seven straight top play winners in college basketball, and more of the same is coming this Saturday with a full card you do not want to miss highlighted by a 6-unit play (26-13 run in college basketball the last 8 Saturdays). By tip time on Friday night the Crusaders will likely have the Horizon League Regular-Season Championship clinched and will not want to give away much in this game since they will likely see the Vikings again in the winner take all conference tournament. Cleveland State is coming off an embarrassing performance against Milwaukee last Sunday and will need to win this game to clinch the No. 2 seed and a bye through the semi-finals. This game just means more to CSU, and they will get it in a big way as Valpo shifts their focus to the conference tournament.