NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, February 6 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
You know how when the NBA releases its schedule in the summer that sites like ESPN or SI.com or NBA.com come out with a list of Top 10 games? Those are usually dead on because there are so few surprise teams in the Association. You pretty much know who will be a title contender. Well, I guarantee you that Friday’s Golden State at Atlanta matchup wasn’t on any Top 10 list, but it’s the clear game of the season thus far — and sadly not on national television. A Hawks-Warriors NBA Finals matchup is priced at +700 at, second to Cavs-Warriors (+500). Here’s a look at every game on a busy Friday night.
Knicks at Nets (-6, 191)
New York last played Tuesday and lost by 11 at home to Boston. Carmelo Anthony had 21 points, but the Knicks played without forward Amare Stoudemire and guard Pablo Prigioni. Both could return here. Stoudemire will be on a minutes limit of about 20 the rest of the season when he does get back. Brooklyn followed a surprising home win over the Clippers on Monday with perhaps an even more surprising 109-93 win in Toronto on Wednesday. It’s the team’s first back-to-back wins since a three-game run from Dec. 29 to Jan. 2. The Nets also have scored at least 100 points in a season-high four straight games. The Nets are 2-0 this season vs. the Knicks, holding New York under 100 points in each. The Knicks haven’t lost a season series to their neighbors since the 2006-07 season. Brook Lopez has averaged 21.5 points and 8.5 rebounds for the Nets in the two games. Anthony has averaged 19.5 points.
Key trends: The favorite is 5-1 in the past six meetings. The “over/under” has gone over in the past four in Brooklyn.
Early lean: Nets and over.
Cavaliers at Pacers (+6.5, 196)
Potential letdown game here for Cleveland as it hosted the Clippers on Thursday. If the Cavs won that, they could tie the franchise record of 13 straight wins here. Indiana will try for its first two-game winning streak since right before Christmas as the Pacers beat visiting Detroit 114-109 on Wednesday. Point guard George Hill returned to the starting lineup and had 20 points. The Pacers shot a season-high 59.7 percent. Indiana lost the only meeting with the Cavs, 109-97 in Cleveland on Nov. 29. Kevin Love had a season-high 28 points, while Kyrie Irving had 24 and LeBron James 19. The Cavs jumped out to a 22-6 lead. Roy Hibbert missed that one for the Pacers.
Key trends: The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Cleveland’s past six in the second of a back-to-back. The home team has covered the past five meetings.
Early lean: It really depends on what Cleveland does Thursday.
Lakers at Magic (-4.5, 203)
L.A. has lost two straight. It was beaten 113-105 in overtime at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Carlos Boozer had a season-high 28 points for the Lakers, who lost for the 11th time in 12 games — eight in a row on the road. Nick Young was back in the lineup after missing Sunday’s loss to the Knicks and had 16 points. Starting forward Jordan Hill sat again, and don’t look for him until after the All-Star Break. Orlando lost its 10th straight on Wednesday, 110-103 in San Antonio. All five Magic starters scored in double figures, but the Orlando bench was outscored 41-17. Rookie forward Aaron Gordon was a late scratch after experiencing pain in his left foot during the morning shootaround. He missed 31 games early this season because of a broken bone in that foot. Also, Orlando coach Jacque Vaughn was fired Thursday just as I was sending this story in. Los Angeles beat the visiting Magic 101-84 on Jan. 9 when Kobe Bryant was out resting. Jeremy Lin had 18 points and Boozer 12 points and 14 rebounds. Nikola Vucevic had 14 points and 11 rebounds for Orlando.
Key trends: The Lakers have covered one of their past seven road games. Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its past five at home. The over is 7-1 in Orlando’s past eight at home.
Early lean: Coach firings usually get a team’s attention. Take Orlando and the over.
Clippers at Raptors (-2, 210)
L.A. could be in the same boat as Cleveland here, especially if the Clippers upset the Cavaliers on Thursday. Then I’d bet big on Toronto here. However, the Raptors have lost two straight at home in rather ugly fashion. They were beaten by 16 by the Nets on Wednesday. Also, DeMar DeRozan was ejected late in the fourth quarter for a Flagrant 2 foul, and that could mean a one-game suspension unless the NBA changes the call, which it can. The Clippers lost at home to Toronto 110-98 on Dec. 27. Kyle Lowry outplayed Chris Paul as Lowry had 25 points, seven assists and three steals. Paul was just 3-for-12 from the field for 10 points and was minus-20. The win ended L.A.’s eight-game home winning streak.
Key trends: The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven in the second of a back-to-back. Toronto has failed to cover seven straight at home vs. teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-0 in the Raptors’ past eight home games vs. teams with a winning road record.
Early lean: Raptors if DeRozan plays.
Warriors at Hawks (+1, 214)
How can ESPN or NBA TV not pick this game up? The Warriors won their third straight in blowout fashion on Wednesday, 128-114 against Dallas, rallying from a 22-point deficit. Stephen Curry had a season-high 51 points (26 in third quarter), making him and Klay Thompson the first teammates since 1993-94 with 50-point games in the same season. Curry also had his second career game with 10 3-pointers. Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak, the longest in the NBA this season (Golden State had a 16-game run), ended on Monday, but the Hawks bounced back with a 105-96 win over Washington on Wednesday. So much for Atlanta going into a minor funk. It was Atlanta’s 11th straight home win, and the Hawks are 19-0 this season at home when leading at halftime. This is the first meeting of the season with Atlanta going to Oakland on March 18. Will both be leading the conference then as well? The Hawks have such a big lead over Cleveland that they probably will. The Warriors are the better team but have a lot better teams chasing them.
Key trends: The Warriors have covered six of their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. Atlanta has covered its past seven at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The over is 5-1 in Atlanta’s past six.
Early lean: No respect for Hawks as a home dog. I’ll take the points. Go under.
76ers at Celtics (-8.5, 191.5)
Boston won its second straight Wednesday, 104-100 at home vs. Denver. For the second time in three games Jared Sullinger was benched for being late, this time for a shootaround. But Sullinger hit two free throws with 22.8 seconds left to break a 100-all tie. The 76ers also come off a win over Denver, 105-98 on Tuesday. Michael Carter-Williams had 15 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Philadelphia dropped the first two meetings this season with Boston at home, both by double digits. The 76ers were 2-0 in Boston last year, however.
Key trends: The road team has covered six of the past seven meetings. The under is 9-0 in Philly’s past nine games vs. Atlantic Division foes.
Early lean: Sixers are playing much better. Take the points and go under.
Nuggets at Pistons (-5.5, 202.5)
Denver has lost four straight and frankly hasn’t looked good in any of them. Ty Lawson led the Nuggets with 23 points and eight assists in Wednesday’s four-point loss in Boston. Backup guard Jameer Nelson missed that game because of a strained Achilles’ tendon. Detroit’s two-game winning streak ended with a 114-109 loss in Indiana on Wednesday despite 18 points and 16 rebounds from Andre Drummond and the team hitting 12 of 24 3-pointers. The Pistons opened the season with an 89-79 loss in Denver.
Key trends: The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their past six vs. the East. Detroit has covered five straight at home. The over is 8-1 in Denver’s past nine vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Pistons and over.
Bucks at Rockets (-6, 199.5)
Houston beat visiting Chicago 101-90 on Wednesday again without Dwight Howard. James Harden scored 27 points, including 13 straight at one point. Despite no Howard, Houston outscored Chicago 50-28 in the paint and had eight blocks. Milwaukee won its fifth straight Wednesday, 113-105 in OT against the Lakers. O.J. Mayo hit a tough 3-pointer from the corner to send it to OT. Brandon Knight returned from missing a game and had 24 points, including 12 in overtime. The Bucks had four guys with at least 20 points for the first time in five years. Milwaukee lost at home to Houston 117-103 on Nov. 29. Howard missed that too, but Harden had 34.
Key trends: The Bucks have covered six of their past seven games. Houston has covered seven of its past eight at home. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings.
Early lean: Bucks and under.
Grizzlies at Timberwolves (+7.5, 193)
Memphis won its eighth in a row on Wednesday, 100-90 in Utah. Zach Randolph had yet another double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Top reserve Vince Carter did not play due to a left foot tendon injury. He’s questionable for this game. I doubt he plays since the Grizzlies don’t need him to beat Minnesota. The Wolves do come off a 102-101 home win over Miami on Wednesday. Minnesota’s not going to be that bad the rest of the way now that some guys are healthy. Forward Shabazz Muhammad (oblique) sat out again, but Coach Flip. Saunders estimated Muhammad could be back as soon as Friday.
Key trends: The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 7-0 in the past seven in Minnesota.
Early lean: Grizzlies and under.
Pelicans at Thunder (TBA)
No line here again because of Kevin Durant (sprained toe). He missed his second straight game on Wednesday, a 102-91 win at these Pelicans. Russell Westbrook dominated with 45 points (tied career high), six rebounds and six assists as OKC got back over .500. Westbrook is averaging 35.8 points per 36 minutes this season when Durant isn’t on the floor with him. That number drops to 20.2 per 36 when Durant is. Westbrook, Klay Thompson and James Harden are the only guys with at least three 40-point games this year. Anthony Davis had 23 points and eight rebounds for the Pelicans.
Key trends: The underdog has covered four straight in this series. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 in OKC.
Early lean: Wait on Durant.
Jazz at Suns (-7.5, 204.5)
Let’s see how much Phoenix has in the tank for this game after playing in Portland on Thursday. Utah has lost two straight, falling 100-90 at home to Memphis on Wednesday. Trey Burke led the Jazz with 21 points while Enes Kanter had 16 points and 10 rebounds. Utah handed Phoenix one of its worst losses of the season, 118-91 in Salt Lake City on Nov. 1. Derrick Favors dominated with 32 points and nine rebounds.
Key trends: Utah has covered five of the past seven meetings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven in Phoenix.
Early lean: Jazz and over.
Heat at Spurs (-11, 186.5)
The previous four NBA seasons this would have been one of those games you wouldn’t miss. Amazing what a difference one player — i.e. LeBron James — can make. Miami lost its second straight on Wednesday, 102-102 in Minnesota. The Heat again played without Dwayne Wade and you won’t see him here. Hassan Whiteside went off again with 24 points and 20 rebounds. He was the first Heat player with a 20-20 game since Shaq in 2004. San Antonio concludes a six-game homestand here and off a seven-point win over Orlando on Wednesday. The Spurs are now fully healthy for the first time all season as Marco Belinelli returned for that game after missing the previous 18.
Key trends: Miami is 6-2 ATS in its past eight after a loss. The Spurs haven’t covered their past six. The under is 11-2 in Miami’s past 13 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.
Early lean: Heat and over.
POINTWISE
NBA BASKETBALL
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6 SCORE
(7:05) New York Knicks 98 – BROOKLYN NETS 97 (ESPN) _____ _____
(7:05) Cleveland Cavaliers 109 – INDIANA PACERS 100 _____ _____
(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 96 – Los Angeles Lakers 89 _____ _____
(7:35) Los Angeles Clippers 113 – TORONTO 110 _____ _____
(7:35) Golden State Warriors 109 – ATLANTA HAWKS 108 _____ _____
(7:35) DETROIT PISTONS 111 – Denver Nuggets 96 _____ _____
(7:35) BOSTON CELTICS 104 – Philadelphia 76ers 101 _____ _____
(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 113 – Milwaukee Bucks 102 _____ _____
(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 101 – New Orleans Pelicans 95 _____ _____
(8:05) Memphis Grizzlies 112 – MINNESOTA 96 _____ _____
(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 116 – Utah Jazz 94 _____ _____
(9:35) SAN ANTONIO 102 – Miami Heat 91 (ESPN) _____ _____
BEST BETS: NEW YORK, DETROIT (4), MEMPHIS (2), PHOENIX
NBA
Hot Teams
— Knicks won five of their last eight games (2-4 last six AU). Brooklyn won last two games, covered last four (1-3 last four HF).
— Cavaliers won last 12 games, covering 11 of them (5-1 last six AF).
— Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 games (2-4 last six AF). Hawks won 20 of their last 21 games (0-0 HU, 9-0 last nine U).
— 76ers are 3-2 in last five games (5-0 vs spread, 4-9 last 13 AU). Celtics won last two games, covered eight of last ten (1-3 last four HF).
— Milwaukee won its last five games (8-1 last nine AU). Rockets won five of their last six games (6-1 last seven HF).
— Memphis won its last eight games, covering six of them (3-1 last four AF).
— Pelicans won six of their last eight games (6-0 last six AU). Thunder won last two games, after losing four of previous five (1-6-1 last 8 HF).
— Spurs won eight of last ten games, are 0-5-1 vs spread in last six.
Cold Teams
— Pacers lost nine of last twelve games (2-6 HU).
— Orlando lost its last ten games, changed coaches this week (2-4 HF). Lakers lost 11 of their last 12 games (1-4-1 last six AU).
— Clippers lost three of last four games (2-5 AU). Toronto lost last two games, by 7-16 points (0-0 HU; 1-7 last eight H)
— Detroit lost five of its last seven games (3-0 last three HF). Nuggets lost 11 of their last 12 games (4-9-1 last 14 AU).
— Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games (1-4 last five HU).
— Jazz lost four of their last five games (11-4 last 15 AU). Suns lost last three games, by 19-1-21 points (7-3 last ten HF).
— Miami lost four of its last five games (6-1 last seven AU).
Series Records
— Nets are 4-3 in their last seven games with New York.
— Cavaliers lost their last four visits to Indiana.
— Lakers won three of last four games with Orlando.
— Clippers won five of last seven games with Toronto.
— Warriors won their last five games with Atlanta.
— Visitor won six of last seven Philly-Boston games.
— Nuggets won eight of last nine games with Detroit.
— Rockets won their last three games with Milwaukee.
— Grizzlies won 14 of last 16 games with Minnesota.
— Pelicans won three of last four games with Oklahoma City.
— Jazz won six of last nine games with Phoenix.
— Spurs won five of last six games with Miami; they beat Heat in five games in Finals last year.
Totals
— Under is 5-1-1 in New York’s last seven road games.
— Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 Cleveland road games.
— Seven of last nine Orlando home games went over.
— Five of last six Clipper road games stayed under.
— Four of last five Atlanta home games went over.
— Seven of 76ers’ last eight road games stayed under.
— Four of last five Detroit home games went over.
— Three of last four Milwaukee road games went over.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six Memphis road games.
— Seven of last eight New Orleans road games stayed under.
— Last five Phoenix home games stayed under total.
— Nine of last eleven Miami road games stayed under.
Back-to-Backs
— Cleveland is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Clippers are 4-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
— Phoenix is 3-6 vs spread if it played the night before.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NBA | MEMPHIS at MINNESOTA
Play Against – Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a close home win by 3 points or less
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NBA | LA CLIPPERS at TORONTO
Play Against – Road underdogs vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a home loss
107-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 82.3% | 52.1 units )
6-1 this year. ( 85.7% | 0.5 units )
NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against – Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (SAN ANTONIO) hot team – having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, well rested team – playing 6 or less games in 14 days
115-62 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% | 46.8 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% | 5.6 units )
Today’s NBA Picks
Milwaukee at Houston
The Bucks head to Houston tonight where they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Rockets. Milwaukee is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even.
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2).
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6
Game 801-802: New York at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.590; Brooklyn 114.988
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 194
Dunkel Pick: New York (+7); Under
Game 803-804: Cleveland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 125.361; Indiana 117.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Over
Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 110.363; Orlando 115.772
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 5 1/2; 207;
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-3 1/2); Over
Game 807-808: LA Clippers at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.019; Toronto 119.616
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+2 1/2); Under
Game 809-810: Golden State at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 128.724; Atlanta 123.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-2); Under
Game 811-812: Denver at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 114.317; Detroit 118.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: Philadelphia at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 110.583; Boston 119.317
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 194
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7); Under
Game 815-816: Milwaukee at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 122.471; Houston 122.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2); Over
Game 817-818: New Orleans at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.034; Oklahoma City 124.617
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4); N/A
Game 819-820: Memphis at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 125.991; Minnesota 115.509
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 10 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 8; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-8); Over
Game 821-822: Utah at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.883; Phoenix 120.811
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6); Over
Game 823-824: Miami at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.399; San Antonio 123.496
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 182
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+10); Under
Game of the Day: Warriors at Hawks
Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks (+1.5, 214.5)
The Atlanta Hawks and the Golden State Warriors both have comfortable leads on the rest of their respective conferences. The two juggernauts will try to decide which team in the best in the NBA when the Warriors visit the Hawks on Friday. Golden State owns the best winning percentage in the league at .830 but is two behind Atlanta in total wins as it embarks on a stretch of 10 of the next 11 games on the road.
The Warriors appeared to be looking ahead to Friday in the first quarter of Wednesday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks, falling behind 24-4 early in the first quarter before turning things around on both ends. The Hawks had their own bounce-back performance on Wednesday with an easy victory over the Washington Wizards two nights after their franchise-record 19-game winning streak came to an end. Golden State and Atlanta both rely on rapid ball movement while ranking first and second, respectively, in the NBA in assists.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), SportSouth (Atlanta)
LINE HISTORY: The line opened as ATL +1.5 with a total of 214.5.
INJURY REPORT: Warriors – N/A Hawks – G Shelvin Mack (Ques-Calf)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened Golden State -1 and heavy action so far has been on the Warriors, who are now -1.5. 84 percent of the bets and 81 percent of cash has come in on the Warriors.” – Mike Jerome of Top Bet.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Golden State (39-8) has been the best team in the NBA this season. The Warriors own the #1 defense and the #2 offense in efficiency metrics. To compare, Atlanta is 41-9 on the season, but the Hawks rank #5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s of no surprise that Golden State is a road favorite in this game as they are the better team. However, the Warriors are off back to back games in which they scored 121 and 128 points, and teams normally would regress in their next game. But Golden State has already scored 126 points in two consecutive games and 126 points or more in four straight games last month. Atlanta has not been as dominant lately as their last three wins have all come by 9 points or less while going just 2-4 ATS over their last six games.” – Steve Merril
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (39-8, 31-15-1 ATS, 24-23 O/U): Stephen Curry went for a season-high 51 points while burying 10 3-pointers in the 128-114 win over the Mavericks on Wednesday and has gone for 21 or more points in six straight games. The All-Star guard averages 24.9 points on the road this season and Golden State is 14-1 against the East, including 6-0 against the Southeast Division. “Everyone feels good right now. We’re in good shape and ready to roll,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “There shouldn’t be any excuses.”
ABOUT THE HAWKS (41-9, 35-15 ATS, 27-23 O/U): Atlanta’s 24-3 home record is bested only by Golden State’s 23-2 mark, and the Hawks picked up their 11th straight home victory in Wednesday’s 105-96 triumph over the Wizards. Atlanta doesn’t have anyone like Curry but is instead exceptional due to its balance, which was highlighted when the NBA named all five starters as co-Players of the Month for January. “It’s something that is reflective of how the group is playing and that our team, hopefully, can be a challenge for our opponent every night on both ends of the court and that we are doing things together collectively,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. “That is what we are talking about every day whether anybody else recognizes it or not.”
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
* Hawks are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors last four games playing on one days rest.
* Over is 5-1 in Hawks last six games overall.
CONSENSUS: 58.82 percent are backing GSW -1.5.
POINTWISE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6 SCORE
(7:00) GEORGE WASHINGTON 73 – Dayton 66 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(7:00) YALE 68 – Dartmouth 54 _____ _____
(7:00) Harvard 81 – BROWN 77 _____ _____
(7:00) CORNELL 72 – Pennsylvania 65 _____ _____
(7:00) COLUMBIA 64 – Princeton 63 _____ _____
BEST BETS: CORNELL
College basketball
Dayton won six of last eight games with George Washington; home side won last five regular season meetings- Flyers beat GW twice in last four A-14 tourneys. Dayton split its last four road games, losing last two on foreign soil by 17-2 points, scoring 62 ppg. A-14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-2 vs spread. Colonials lost last two games, are 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-3-10-15 points- they’re 2-5 against spread as an A-14 favorite this year.
Yale is 4-0, has one-game lead over Harvard team they play tomorrow in huge game, since Ivy has no postseason tourney. Yale won four of its last six games with Dartmouth, but can’t look ahead, since Big Green beat the Bulldogs on Senior Night here LY. Big Green is 1-3 in Ivy, with losses by 11-7-11 points; they’ve forced turnovers on 26.9% of possesssions, tops in Ivy so far. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 0-4 vs spread.
Brown is 0-4 in Ivy, 1-3 vs spread, losing by 18-4-8-21 points; they’ve lost their best player (transfer), are shooting just 24.1% from arc in four league games. Harvard has big game at Yale tomorrow; they’re 3-1 so far in Ivy, winning by 11-3-25 points, with all three of those wins on road. Crimson won its last ten games with Brown, but two of last four went to OT, including LY’s visit here. Ivy League home underdogs are 2-5.
Cornell split its first four Ivy games, allowing 49 or less points in three of four games; losing two of three at home. Big Red lost its last three games with Penn by 4-7-8 points; they’re forcing turnovers 25.4% of time, and holding foes to 26.7% from arc. Quakers are turning ball over 24.4% of time in league games; they lost two of first three Ivy games, scoring 48.0 ppg in last two games, losing only road game by four. Ivy League home favorites of less than 7 points are 3-0 vs spread.
Princeton won two of first three Ivy games but they were all home tilts; Tigers are 0-6 in true road games, with four of six losses by 10+ points. Columbia split its first four games, losing two of three at home; Lions are making 40.2% from arc in league, but turning ball over 22.9% of the time. Princeton won nine of last ten series games, winning last visits here. Ivy League home teams are 4-3 in games with spread of less than 5 points.
Iona (-5) won 86-72 at Siena Jan 4, making 11-25 on arc, 62.1% inside arc in game they led by 10 at half. Gaels won their last three games, are 3-3 as MAAC home favorite, winning home games by 13-8-3-16-23-7- they won their last game in OT. Saints are 3-2 in last five games, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 12-34-8 points, with wins at Fairfield, Niagara. Three of Siena’s six MAAC losses are by 14+. MAAC double digit home favorites are 3-6 vs spread.
Manhattan (+4) won 63-60 at Canisius Jan 4, despite having -7 turnover ratio (15-8); Griffins made just 3-21 from arc, but shot 54.5% inside arc. Jaspers won/covered last three games, are 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by four of five home wins by 7+- they lost to Rider at home. Canisius is 4-2 SU on road, 5-1 vs spread, 2-1 as dog, losing at Iona by 3, at Rider by 13. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-13.
Marist won/covered last three games after starting 0-9 in MAAC; they’re 6-1 vs spread in last seven games, and won 65-61 (+4.5) at Niagara week ago tonight, outscoring Eagles 7-2 in last 1:18. Foxes shot 57% inside arc that night. Marist is 1-0 as MAAC favorite, Niagara 2-3 as underdog on road, losing road games by 10-9-11-23 points, with win at St Peter’s back on Nov 20th. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-13.
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | PENNSYLVANIA at CORNELL
Play On – A road team (PENNSYLVANIA) a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 5 straight games
80-40 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 36.0 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
CBB | NIAGARA at MARIST
Play On – A road team vs. the money line (NIAGARA) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more against opponent off a road win
79-115 since 1997. ( 40.7% | 59.8 units )
1-6 this year. ( 14.3% | -6.0 units )
CBB | CANISIUS at MANHATTAN
Play On – Any team (CANISIUS) terrible shooting team (<=40%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%), cold shooting team – 3 straight games making <=40% of their shots
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 2.6 units )
Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -146 over Winnipeg Jets
(System Record: 62-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 62-45-1
Basketball Crusher
Denver Nuggets +6.5 over Detroit Pistons
(System Record: 47-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 47-47-2
Soccer Crusher
Jong PSV + Emmen UNDER 3.5
This match is happening in Netherlands
(System Record: 701-25, won last game)
Overall Record: 701-586-106
Here are the rest of his hockey and basketball plays for today…
Hockey
Toronto Maple Leafs +118 over NJ Devils
Calgary Flames +104 over Pittsburgh Penguins
St Louis Blues + Columbus Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5
Basketball
Milwaukee Bucks +6 over Houston Rockets
Los Angeles Lakers + Orlando Magic OVER 201.5
Pennsylvania +6 over Cornell
EZWINNERS
NBA
1* (819) Memphis -8
Newsletter College Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports
Take #826 George Washington Pk over Dayton (7 p.m., Friday, Feb. 6)
I just believe that Dayton is one of the most overrated teams in the country, and they have trouble matching up against good teams. The Colonials have struggled of late, losing two straight games, and this is a must-win to keep their at-large hopes alive for the NCAA Tournament. Dayton does not have much size in the paint, and that will be their undoing in this affair.
PAUL LEINER
100* CBB – Over 124 – Dayton/George Washington
50* CBB – Marist -4