Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Preview: Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Illinois Fightin Illini vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-6, 58)
Game to be played at Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
1. One of the many setbacks during Illinois coach Tim Beckman’s first year on the job was a blowout loss to Louisiana Tech. With an eye on their first winning season under his watch, the Illini look to avenge that defeat versus the Bulldogs in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. Little went right for Beckman’s 2-10 squad in 2012, but perhaps no game encapsulated the season more than when Illinois committed six turnovers in a 52-24 home loss to the Bulldogs, which began a season-ending nine-game skid.
2. Few players in the country can match the production of Louisiana Tech running back Kenneth Dixon, who has scored in a FBS-high 12 consecutive games and posted a Conference USA-best 26 total touchdowns this season. The junior running back is the only player in the country with an 80-plus yard TD run and catch in 2014 and has 59 career scores from scrimmage (tied for 19th-best in FBS history). Dixon, who has run for 3,347 yards in his career, is also six yards shy of becoming the program’s all-time leading rusher.
3. The Illini’s Mike Dudek, who leads all FBS freshman in receiving yards (80.4), was the Big Ten’s top receiver in conference play, posting 50 catches for 716 yards. The second-team all-conference selection set Illinois’ freshman records for receptions (69) and receiving yards (965) while tying the touchdown mark (six) set by College Football Hall of Famer David Williams. Dudek is trying to become the eighth player in school history with 1,000 receiving yards in a season.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: After opening at LT-5, action quickly had book adjusting the line a full point to -6. The total has been falling since it opened at 63 and currently sits at 58.
INJURY REPORT: Illinois – LB Mike Svetina (Ques-Foot) Louisiana Tech – DL Malcom Pichon (Ques-Suspension), DL Aaron Brown (Ques-Suspension), OL Mitchell Bell (Ques-Suspension), LB Terrell Pinson (Ques-Suspension)
WEATHER REPORT: Weather is expected to be overcast with a low 16 percent chance of rain. Wins will be gusting upwards of 12 mph towards the south.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): While the Illini ranked 112th in scoring defense (33.9 points per game) and 105th in total defense among the 125 FBS teams, they proved to be opportunistic in their three league wins, recording 10 of their 18 takeaways and two of their four defensive scores. “If you look at the three wins, we played very good defense. Honestly, those three games were won because of our defense,” Beckman told The Daily Illini. Junior cornerback V’Angelo Bentley, who sealed a 28-24 victory over Minnesota with a fumble return for a touchdown, is the only player in school history to return a kickoff, punt, interception and fumble for a score in his career.
ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U): Although the Bulldogs committed the second-most giveaways in their conference (25), they made up for it by forcing the most takeaways in the country (40), which led to a FBS-high 164 points off turnovers. Louisiana Tech recorded at least three takeaways in each of its final five regular-seasons contests and has collected multiple turnovers in all but one of its last 15 games dating back to last season. Some of the chaos the Bulldogs created on defense can be attributed to former Illini defensive end Houston Bates, who led the team with 12 quarterback hurries and earned a second-team all-conference nod.
TRENDS:
*Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
*Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-1 in Fighting Illini last 6 vs. CUSA.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games on fieldturf.
CONSENSUS: 58.67 percent are backing LT -6, with 52.64 percent on the over.
Rutgers and UNC clash in Friday’s Quick Lane Bowl
By Brian Graham
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (7-5) vs. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-6)
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 67
North Carolina tries to finish its season with a winning record when it collides with Rutgers on Friday in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.
These two teams have built up nice momentum with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland in its regular-season finale, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don’t have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo has given opponents fits all year with 10 TD grabs and a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, but he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games. Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG and 496 total YPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG on 525 total YPG. While the Knights are 31-15 ATS in away non-conference games since 1992, the Tar Heels are 16-6 ATS in this same timeframe in non-home games off a conference home loss. While Rutgers will be without DB Kiy Hester (personal) and top RB Desmon Peoples (undisclosed) is doubtful, North Carolina may not have questionable DB Ryan Mangum (undisclosed), but RB Elijah Hood (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Friday.
Rutgers scores only 25.6 PPG on 379 total YPG this season, but has been better in non-home games (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) with 26.2 PPG on 391.5 total YPG. Defensively is where the school really struggles though, allowing 30.9 PPG on 440 total YPG (6.5 yards per play). The Knights gain 148 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 231 passing YPG (8.2 YPA), but they allow 213 rushing YPG (5.6 YPC) and 228 passing YPG (7.7 YPA). Senior QB Gary Nova (2,667 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 20 TD, 12 INT) is coming off a monster game at Maryland on Nov. 29 when he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That was quite a turnaround from the 3 TD and 5 INT that he amassed in his previous five games combined. His main target is WR Leonte Carroo (53 rec, 1,043 yards, 10 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving efforts and three multi-touchdown performances this season. He caught six passes for 104 yards and two scores in the last game at Maryland. Sophomore WR Janarion Grant (25 rec, 312 yards, 0 TD) also had a big day against the Terrapins with eight receptions for 105 yards. With top RB Desmon Peoples (447 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) unlikely to play, the bulk of the rushing workload will reside with freshman RB Robert Martin (334 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) who has rushed for 208 yards (5.2 YPC) and 4 TD in his past three games. The Knights need to be more careful with the football on Friday, as they have at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this season, including five giveaways in the past two contests. The defense has only three multi-takeaway efforts in the past 10 games.
North Carolina’s offense has scored a hefty 34.3 PPG (33rd in nation), thanks in large part to an air attack gaining 279.3 YPG (24th in FBS) and much smaller part to the ground game with 146.2 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense has really hurt this program though, as it allows 38.9 PPG overall (119th in nation) on 496 total YPG (6.4 yards per play). The Heels have been hurt in both facets, as they surrender 232 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 263 passing YPG (8.5 YPA). Junior QB Marquise Williams (2,870 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) is coming off his worst game of the season in the 35-7 defeat versus NC State (11-of-22, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but has thrown for more than 275 yards in five of his past nine games, while tossing multiple TD passes seven times during the 2014 season. Williams is also the team’s leading rusher with 737 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TD on the ground. The team will try to get RB T.J. Logan (472 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) back on track after he gained a mere 11 yards on six touches in the last game, which was a far cry from his 271 total yards and 2 TD in his previous two contests. UNC has a host of talented receivers with four players surpassing 400 yards through the air. Sophomore WRs Ryan Switzer (55 rec, 703 yards, 4 TD) and Mack Hollins (34 rec, 611 yards, 18.0 avg, 8 TD) are the top targets for Williams, but the duo combined for just 36 yards on six catches in the Nov. 29 loss. North Carolina has committed multiple turnovers in 6-of-12 games this year, but has also forced multiple turnovers five times during the 2014 season.
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Preview: North Carolina State vs. UCF
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. UCF Knights (-2, 49.5)
Game to be played at Tropicana Field, St. Petersberg, Florida
1. When we last saw UCF, the Knights were storming the field following a Hail Mary catch by Breshad Perriman to defeat East Carolina and claim a share of the American Athletic Conference title. The dramatic win helped UCF earn a berth in the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl against North Carolina State, which won three of its last four games. The teams have split their two previous meetings, with North Carolina State recording a 28-21 victory in 2010.
2. While UCF is seeking its fourth consecutive bowl victory, North Carolina State is returning to the postseason after going 3-9 in 2013. The Knights boast one of the nation’s top defenses, led by linebacker Terrance Plummer and cornerback Jacoby Glenn, who is tied for third in the country with seven interceptions. Plummer has a team-high 92 tackles for UCF, which allows 17.9 points per game – ninth in the nation.
3. UCF’s stout defense should be tested by a North Carolina State offense that outscored its final two opponents – Wake Forest and North Carolina – by a combined 77-20. The Knights boast the nation’s fifth-best rushing defense, but the Wolfpack rushed for 388 yards in a 35-7 victory over North Carolina to end the regular season. Shadrach Thornton led the way with 28 carries for 161 yards.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The spread has seen a slight move from opening, where UCF was favored by 1.5-points compared to the current -2. The total has dropped 0.5 points since opening from 50 to 49.5.
INJURY REPORT: North Carolina – N/A UCF – RB Dontravious Wilson (Ques-Shoulder)
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): After jumping to a 24-7 first-quarter lead over Florida State on Sept. 27, the Wolfpack ended up falling 56-41 and losing their next three games. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has run for 498 yards and three scores. Mike Rose has 14 tackles-for-loss to lead the defense, which allowed an average of 15.9 points in its seven victories.
ABOUT UCF (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Knights opened with losses to Penn State and Missouri before winning five in a row, including a 31-24 overtime victory over BYU. While the defense has been a strength all season, the offense struggled early before averaging 33 points during a four-game winning streak to close the regular season. Quarterback Justin Holman has thrown 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while Perriman has caught a TD pass in seven straight games.
TRENDS:
*Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
*Knights are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
*Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
*Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games following a S.U. win.
CONSENSUS: 62.23 percent are backing UCF -2, with the total slightly leaning towards the under (50.6).
NCAA Football Game Picks
“Best Pick when available”
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26
Game 221-222: Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 78.305; Louisiana Tech 92.314
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 14; 62
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 6; 58
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-6); Over
Game 223-224: Rutgers vs. North Carolina (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 85.508; North Carolina 82.929
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 2 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+3 1/2); Under
Game 225-226: NC State vs. Central Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 91.130; Central Florida 95.591
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 4 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-2); Over
2014 College Football
St Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida started year in Ireland, ends it 90 miles from home; they should have crowd edge here. O’Leary won/covered his last three bowls, beating Baylor in Fiesta Bowl LY; they’re 1-1 in this bowl. Knights won last four games by average score of 33-11; they’re 4-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. NC State won three of last four games after 0-4 skid in middle of year; they’re 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Pack is 3-2 in last five bowls, Doeren is 1-0 as bowl coach, back in ’11. Faves won/covered this bowl four of last five years; last three stayed under the total. NC State was 3-9 LY, so they’re happy to be in a bowl, any bowl.
Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit
North Carolina lost four straight games early in year, allowing average of 51 ppg; they rallied to win four of last six games, but still allowed 34+ in eight of last ten games- they’re 4-3 in tilts with a single digit pointspread. Rutgers covered seven of last ten games; they’re 6-0 in games if spread is single digits- they lost 13-10/29-16 in last two bowls, lost 17-13/24-22 in last two meetings with Tar Heels. North Carolina is 3-2 in its last five bowls, with average total in last three, 59.3. Underdogs won/covered this bowl four of last five years, with three of last four going over total- game is in a dome, so no weather worries. We have a selection on this below.
Heart of Dallas Bowl
7-5 Louisiana Tech lost three games by 3 points, losing to a I-AA team, but they’re 6-0 vs spread in games with single digit spread. C-USA teams are surprising 14-7 in last 21 bowls, 8-3 vs spread when favored. Illinois is 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Both teams are in their first bowl since ’11: Tech got hosed out of going to bowl in ’12- they figure to have crowd edge, playing Big 14 foe. Tech is 1-3-1 in last five bowls; Holtz is 2-3 as bowl coach. Illini won 38-14/20-14 in last two bowls; Beckman is 0-1 as bowl coach, losing 34-32 to FIU in Detroit in ’10. Favorites are 4-0 in this bowl, 3-1 vs spread; three of four went over total.
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl – Friday Dec. 26
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+6, 59)
* The Bulldogs were one of the best teams in the nation ATS going 10-3. They improved offensively as their ppg increased year-over-year by 18.3 ppg. The addition of Iowa transfer Cody Sokol was the biggest reason for their improvement and he was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year.
* The Fighting Illini have the worst defense in the Big Ten giving up 33.9 ppg. They’ve only held two FBS teams under 30 points this season.
Quick Lane Bowl – Friday Dec 26, 4:30 PM
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3, 66.5)
* Rutgers has beaten only two teams with winning records this season but did cover the spread in both wins.
* North Carolina has parted ways with defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. They gave up 44 ppg and 540 ypg against non-conference foes.
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl – Friday Dec. 26
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Central Florida Knights (-2, 49.5)
* The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as their running game has really started to blossom. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 230 ypg on the ground vs. 188 in their first seven games.
* The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. In the three games they were favorites, the defense allowed an average of 4.6 ppg.
Action Report: L.A. Tech the hot bet vs. Illinois
Stephen Campbell
Illinois and Louisiana Tech’s Dec. 26 matchup is seeing an outpour of support on the favorited Bulldogs at Sportsbook.
“We opened L.A. Tech at -6 and saw some decent two-way action at that number,” said oddsmaker Peter Childs. “But in the past few days we’ve seen some decent support for the fave in this game.”
“The Bulldogs have received over 70 percent of bets this week, which has moved our number from -6 to -6.5,” said Childs. “At -6.5 we’re starting to see more balanced action, and unless a sharp group places a wager on this one, we’ll be closing it at -6.5.”
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On – Any team (UCF) poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On – All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season
39-17 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
Six Teams that have the sportsbooks sweating this bowl season
By JASON LOGAN
You don’t always get everything you want for Christmas (still waiting on that Ninja Turtle blimp, Santa…) and if you check the bookmakers’ wish list, you’ll find losses for these six college football programs this bowl season.
Be it sharp money, public action or both, books are looking at a big stocking full of coal (if they’re lucky) if these high-liability teams come through. Here are the teams sportsbooks are cheering against the loudest this bowl season:
Miami Hurricanes
Independence Bowl: -3.5 vs. South Carolina
This bowl opened as low as a pick’em and sharps took the Hurricanes up to as high as -4 before buy back came on the Gamecocks for this Dec. 27 ACC-versus-SEC matchup.
“The wiseguys are looking for a motivated Miami team against a South Carolina squad that hasn’t shown much focus all season,” says John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker. “We’ve been forced to move the spread as much as four points, even though we are seeing some public money on the Gamecocks. Hopefully the Ol’ Ball Coach can work some magic for us.”
Auburn Tigers
Outback Bowl: -6.5 vs. Wisconsin
The betting market soured on the Badgers after they took an ass waxing at the hands of Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and this line has grown in favor of Auburn since opening as low as 5.5. Books are trying everything they can not to cross over the key number of a touchdown despite an overwhelming amount of action on Auburn.
“Auburn is shaping up like it’s going to be a very one-sided game,” Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook. “For every 10 bets we’re taking on Auburn, we’re getting only one bet on Wisconsin. Basically everyone remembers the last games these two teams played… plus, Auburn has been a public team the past two years.”
Oklahoma Sooners
Russell Athletic Bowl: -3.5 vs. Clemson
Books added an extra half point to the opening field goal spread with money piling on the Sooners in this Dec. 29 bowl game, from public and professional bettors.
“Oklahoma has been getting hammered by both betting parties,” says Lester. “More than 80 percent of our wagers for that game are on the Sooners so we’d like Clemson to come up with an upset.”
USC Trojans
Holiday Bowl: -7 vs. Nebraska
The Trojans take on a Huskers program in turmoil after cutting ties with head coach Bo Pelini. Southern Cal is a touchdown favorite after opening as low as -5.5 with zero interest in Nebraska. The Trojans should also have a strong home field edge with the game being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.
“Big site advantage for USC as this game is being played 90 minutes from their campus,” says Childs. “Expect a heavy partisan USC crowd there on Saturday night. This is a standalone primetime game and we will book a ton of action come game day, and with all that action being on USC I can only see us getting to 7.5 at some point.”
Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas Bowl: -6 vs. Texas
You know there’s some heavy action when the team not named “Texas” is a 6-point favorite in the Texas Bowl. Money on the Hogs has hit hot and heavy since opening this game at Arkansas -5.
“We’d love to see Texas get one for the Gipper,” says Childs. “Casual bettors are still caught up in the Longhorns’ frustrating year and some sharps aren’t ready to jump off Arkansas, which ended the season strong. For this renewed rivalry, a large portion of our handle is on the Hogs.”
Florida State Seminoles
Rose Bowl: -9 vs. Oregon
The defending national champs are getting no love. Books opening Jameis & Co. as low as 7.5-point underdogs to Oregon and that has been bet up as high as Ducks -10 – for just a second at select spots – before buyback showed on the Noles.
But while that drastic move sets the books up for a crap-ton of bad situations – middles and teasers – the biggest liability on the Rose Bowl is FSU’s moneyline. Big bets are taking a flyer on the Seminoles to win outright and it could be a bad start to 2015 for books if FSU can come through, as big as +290 moneyline dogs right now.
“The moneyline is a major concern and we’re still a good week away from that game going,” says Lester. “If we’re exposed now, by game time you can figure that the exposure will double or triple by then. No question, it’s our biggest bowl game liability.”
MADDUX SPORTS (Bowl Game)
10* Under 49 – NC St. vs Central Florida
NORM HITZGES
N. C. State +2 1/2 Central Florida———St. Petersburg Bowl
DR. BOB
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
(221-222) *UNDER (60.5) Illinois-LA Tech 1-Star UNDER 59 or higher
*UNDER (60 ½) – Louisiana Tech (-6) 27 Illinois 24
Fri Dec-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 221 Over/Under 60.5
Louisiana Tech’s games averaged 62.2 total points per game in regulation and Illinois’ games averaged 60.5 total points per game, which are both higher than the national average of 55 points per game. However, there is good value towards the Under in this game for a few different reasons, from Louisiana Tech’s variance in red zone scoring average to the significantly slower pace that Illinois is running their offense in the second half of the season with a run-oriented offensive approach replacing the pass-heavy attack of the first 6 games of the season. It all adds up to solid value on the Under.
The Illinois offense will be run by senior Reilly O’Toole, who was a backup for 3 ½ years before getting his chance to start when Wes Lunt went down with an injury in the middle of the season. Lunt is a better passer but he wasn’t nearly as effective when he came back from a month long absence in week 12 against Iowa and it was O’Toole that led the Illini to wins the following two weeks to secure a bowl bid and secure his spot as the starter for this game. O’Toole’s compensated passing numbers (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average QB) aren’t that much worse than Lunt’s compensated numbers (Lunt faced worst pass defenses) but O’Toole isn’t as careful with the football and has thrown 7 interceptions in just 167 pass attempts (4.2% compared to Lunt’s 3 interceptions on 233 passes, 1.3%). O’Toole has thrown 16 interceptions on 337 career pass attempts (4.7%), so his higher than normal interception rate this season (2.9% in the national average) is most likely not the result of variance and he’s certainly in danger of throwing multiple picks against a ball-hawking Louisiana Tech secondary that leads the nation in interceptions. O’Toole does add a running element to the position, as he ran for 355 yards on 62 runs this season (not including sacks, which I count as passing plays), including 147 yards on 21 runs in the win over Northwestern that earned the Illini a spot in a bowl game. O’Toole’s running should improve the overall rushing numbers despite injuries to two starting offensive linemen. The other affect of having O’Toole at quarterback is more runs and fewer passes, which has led to more average time of possession and fewer plays per minute for the Illini since week 7 due to the clock stopping less often. Illinois averaged 2.7 plays per minute of possession the first 6 games of the season when they were averaging 23.3 rushing plays and 44.0 passing plays per game and their games averaged a total of 148.6 plays from scrimmage (not including kneel downs and spikes). In 6 games from week 7 on, with mostly O’Toole at quarterback, the Illini averaged 2.4 plays per minute of possession while averaging 34.2 runs and 31.7 pass plays and those games totaled just 137.6 plays from scrimmage. The fewer number of plays expected in this game with O’Toole at quarterback is not factored into the total on this game, which is part of the reason we have line value on the Under. For the season the Illinois attack averaged 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and they rate the same with O’Toole at quarterback but with more projected turnovers.
The Louisiana Tech defense was consistently good this season, allowing 5.0 yards per play to a schedule of opposing offensive units that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs were particularly good defending the run (4.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp), which matches up well with an Illinois attack that runs it more often than they throw it with O’Toole behind center. Louisiana Tech will be without suspended starters DL Aaron Brown, LB Terrell Pinson, and LB Tony Johnson but those 3 also missed the Bulldogs’ game against an explosive Marshall attack and the defense played their best game of the season (relative to the strength of the opposing offense) in holding the Thundering Herd to just 5.4 yards per play and 26 points. I didn’t think Brown or Johnson would be missed since neither registered very many impact plays but I thought Pinson’s absence would hurt the pass defense since he’s proven to be very good in coverage (3 interceptions and 11 total passes defended). However, the coaching staff started a 5th defensive back against Marshall and the pass defense was even better and the Bulldogs gave up just 4.3 yards per rushing play to one of the best running teams in the nation. So, I certainly have no reason to think the absence of the 3 suspended defenders will hurt the defense given how well that unit performed in the CUSA Championship game and there is actually reason to think it might make the Bulldogs’ stop unit even better – although I made no adjustment either way. Louisiana Tech’s defense has a 0.7 yards per play advantage over the Illinois offense and the math projects the Illini to gain just 337 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with O’Toole projected to throw 1.45 interceptions against a Bulldogs’ defense that leads the nation with 25 interceptions in 13 games.
Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who transferred from Iowa and had a solid season throwing the football. Sokol averaged 7.1 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. The rushing attack features Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1236 yards at 5.2 ypr, but overall the Bulldogs were well below average running the ball this season, as they averaged only 4.8 yards per rushing play as a team despite facing opponents that would combine to allow 5.3 yprp to an average offensive team. Overall, Louisiana Tech’s 37.5 points per game is very misleading given that the offense averaged their 6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average FBS attack. The Bulldogs also inflated their scoring average with 76 points in one game against Rice and they had a red zone efficiency that is too high to maintain. The Bulldogs averaged 5.5 points per red zone opportunity, which is far outside the normal range. The best teams in the nation are usually around 5.2 points per RZ and the national average is about 4.8 points per RZ opportunity. Louisiana Tech projects to be at 4.9 points per RZ based on their overall offensive stats and the difference works out to 2.4 points per game of red zone variance. The Bulldogs also had 4 defensive touchdowns, which is more than average also, so their 37.5 points per game was randomly high, which is another reason we have some line value on the under. Louisiana Tech may not have been affected by the academic suspensions on their defense but the offense really struggled against Marshall (just 268 yards at 4.1 yards per play) without two suspended starting offensive linemen, Tre Carter and Mitchell Bell. Carter and Bell are two of the most experienced starters on the line (combined for 41 career starts) and Bell was named first team All-CUSA. An offensive line that had given up just 5 sacks on 282 pass plays (1.8%) in the final 8 regular season games allowed 2 sacks on just 22 pass plays (9.1%) in their CUSA Championship game against Marshall. The Herd also had 7 quarterback hurries in that game and Sokol was a horrible 7 for 20 passing for just 72 yards (59 yards with sacks included) while under constant duress. That’s 9 sacks and hurries in just 22 pass plays (41%) compared to 43 sacks and hurries in 431 pass plays (10%) in the other 12 games with Carter and Bell. The patchwork offensive line should be better than they were against Marshall with a few weeks to prepare for this game but I think it’s reasonable to assume that the offensive line will not be as good without their 1st team All-Conference tackle and their best guard.
The Illini don’t look too good defensively, as they allowed 33.9 points per game and 6.1 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 30.5 points and 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Illinois was actually pretty solid defensive early in the season and they were decent late in the season but they gave up an average of 8.4 yards per play in week 6 and 7 before playing better down the stretch. At 0.3 yppl worse than average the Illini defense matches up pretty evenly with a Louisiana Tech offense that is just average from a yards per play perspective this season and is likely to be a bit worse than average without their two best offensive linemen. The math model projects 379 yards at 5.7 yards per play for the Bulldogs, which is just barely better than the national average for yards per play and less than the national average of 396 total yards per game. It’s unlikely that Louisiana Tech will top 30 points even if they continue to average 5.5 yards per red zone possession.
Overall the math favors Louisiana Tech by 5 points, which is where this line opened, but the Illini apply to a very good 73-15-1 ATS bowl game situation that is more significant than a 50-23-2 ATS statistical match up indicator that applies to Louisiana Tech. I’ll lean with Illinois at +5 or more
The projected statistics in this game project just 49 total points but there should be a few more points than that given that Louisiana Tech is still likely to have a better red zone scoring efficiency than my model would project – although not as high of an average as they’ve had this season. The combination of 5 fewer projected plays than the season numbers would project and Louisiana Tech’s positive variance in points scored has supplied us with enough line value on the under to make a play. I should make this Under a 2-Star Best Bet but I’ve had bad luck with totals this season so I’ll play it conservatively and just make this a 1-Star play. I’ll go UNDER 59 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (2-Stars at 61 or higher) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion down to 58 points (and a lean under at less than that number).
DAVID GLISAN SPORTS (Bowl Games )
(222) Louisiana Tech -6 over Illinois
(221/222) Louisiana Tech/Illinois – UNDER
MARC LAWRENCE (phone plays)
South Carolina
NC State
INSIDE THE PRESSBOX / PHIL STEELE
NCAAF Opinions
ILLINOIS
UCF
THE SHEEP
$900 – UNDER 59 – Illinois vs Louisiana Tech
BEN BURNS
10* *BLOWOUT ALERT* Friday FEAST —- ILLINOIS
10* False Favorite —- NORTH CAROLINA ST.
NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, December 26 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
The Houston Rockets should send Detroit Pistons boss Stan Van Gundy a Christmas card. Van Gundy shockingly cut Josh Smith earlier this week. Yes, Smith is a maddening, overpaid player but he’s still talented if harnessed. No team claimed him on waivers, which is no shock as that club would be on the hook for the $40 million or so left on his contract. Smith thus became a free agent and chose to sign with Houston and play alongside good buddy Dwight Howard. That’s a huge free addition for Houston. The Western Conference gets more and more ridiculous every week it seems. Smith should make his Rockets debut Friday. Here’s a look at every game on the schedule.
Nets at Celtics (TBA)
The only matinee on the schedule with a 1 p.m. start. Brooklyn brings a two-game winning streak into Boston, winning both without starting point guard Deron Williams. He’s questionable for this one with a calf injury. The Nets won’t rush him back and risk serious injury because they want to trade him. Jarrett Jack would start again for the Nets, who are 11-2 against teams with a losing record. Boston has lost two straight, both on the road. The C’s were held to just 30 first-half point in Tuesday’s loss in Orlando. Boston opened its season with a 121-105 home win over the Nets behind 13 points, 12 assists and seven rebounds from Rajon Rondo, who of course is in Dallas now.
Key trends: The home team has covered four of the past five meetings. The “over/under” has gone under in nine of Brooklyn’s past 10 on the road.
Early lean: Williams or not, Nets should win outright.
Cavaliers at Magic (+6, 198)
This would seem to be a huge trap game for LeBron James in particular after his likely emotional return to Miami on Christmas. Orlando ended a four-game losing streak with Tuesday’s 100-95 home win over the Celtics. The Magic led by as many as 27 in that one and never trailed. Nikola Vucevic had 18 points and 12 rebounds. Orlando was slaughtered in Cleveland on Nov. 24, 106-74, easily the Magic’s worst loss of the year. The Cavs were on a season-high four-game skid entering that one. The Cavaliers have won eight consecutive games against Orlando.
Key trends: Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Orlando.
Early lean: I was hoping this line was a bit higher, and I was going to take Orlando. At 6 I have to lean Cleveland. If it climbs to 8, I’d go Magic.
Bucks at Hawks (-9, 206)
I really can’t take Atlanta as a serious Eastern Conference contender even though the Hawks have won five straight — all against very good teams — and 14 of 15. During the current winning streak, the Hawks have vanquished the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers, all title contenders. That’s impressive. Atlanta point guard Jeff Teague returned from a three-game injury absence in Tuesday’s win over L.A. Milwaukee has lost two straight and has allowed at least 104 points in four straight games. The Bucks host the Hawks on Saturday night.
Key trends: The road team has covered five straight in this series. The under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s past seven at home vs. teams with a losing road record.
Early lean: Hawks and over.
Pacers at Pistons (+3, 187.5)
Detroit will play its first game since Smith was waived. Fittingly, he missed two key late free throws the last time he had the ball in a Pistons uniform. Clearly Van Gundy had to do something as many thought this team would battle for a playoff spot but is 5-23 and on a four-game losing streak. The Pistons have allowed at least 110 points in each of those losses. Indiana has won back-to-back games for only the third time this season. In Tuesday’s 96-84 win over New Orleans, starting point guard George Hill made his season debut and had 15 points in 21 minutes.
Key trends: The Pacers have covered four straight in Detroit. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings.
Early lean: Smith’s release gets the Pistons’ attention. They win here and start playing better.
Rockets at Grizzlies (TBA)
I’m presuming Smith will be in the lineup here. He can only help a team that has played the last 23 games without starting power forward Terrence Jones. The Rockets promised Smith he would start so Jones will come off the bench whenever he returns. Smith is averaging 13.1 points and 7.2 rebounds in 28 games. Houston ended a two-game losing streak with Monday’s 110-95 win over Portland. James Harden had a season-high 44 points. He has to be in the MVP conversation. It was Harden’s NBA-leading third 40-point game this season, with all of them coming this month. Memphis is on a season-high three-game skid and was shocked at home by Utah on Monday, 97-91. It was the first time this season Memphis lost to a team that entered the game with a sub-.500 record. The Grizzlies are hoping to get back starters Tony Allen and Zach Randolph from injury for this game but both are questionable.
Key trends: Houston has covered just one of its past eight in Memphis. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall.
Early lean: Wait on Randolph and Allen. Rockets win if they are out.
Spurs at Pelicans (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for San Antonio as it hosted Oklahoma City on Thursday afternoon. There was some talk that Kawhi Leonard would return from a hand injury for that one, but that didn’t happen so I highly doubt it does here. Again, be wary of Gregg Popovich here. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are on sit alert. In their first meeting of the season, New Orleans erased a five-game losing streak against the Spurs and a seven-game losing streak in San Antonio with a 100-99 win. Anthony Davis hit the go-ahead shot, a driving layup with 6.6 seconds left.
Key trends: The Spurs have covered just one of their past seven in New Orleans. The over is 10-1 in the Pelicans’ past 11 on Friday.
Early lean: Pelicans win outright.
Hornets at Thunder (TBA)
Second of a back-to-back for OKC as it was in San Antonio on Thursday. Kevin Durant missed his fourth straight game with a sprained ankle, and thus he’s doubtful to play here. For sure out again for Charlotte is Lance Stephenson because of a hip injury. The Hornets are playing way better without Stephenson and are on a season-high four-game winning streak. None were against good teams, but it’s a start. Oklahoma City won both meetings last season; the Thunder have won six in a row at home in the series.
Key trends: Charlotte has covered four straight on the road. The under is 6-1 in OKC’s past seven vs. the East. The home team has covered five of the past six meetings.
Early lean: Wait on Durant.
Lakers at Mavericks (TBA)
Los Angeles played in Chicago on Thursday night. Kobe Bryant played in that one, but could he sit in the second of a back-to-back? The team already has said his minutes will be cut the rest of the way. The Lakers want to get Kobe down to 32 a night. He’s around 35.4 now and shooting a career-low 37.2 percent. Coach Byron Scott said he will run fewer plays for Kobe as well. Like that will matter. The Mavericks also were hoping to land Smith but now may have to settle for Jermaine O’Neal. Dallas has lost two straight to drop to 1-2 since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas scorched the visiting Lakers 140-106 on Nov. 21. It’s a season high in points for the Mavericks, who have won four straight vs. L.A.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven.
Early lean: Mavericks in a rout and over whatever the number.
Timberwolves at Nuggets (-10, 211)
Here are two teams decimated by injuries. The Nuggets have lost two straight, but those were both on the road. The club is hoping to get back Darrell Arthur from injury in this one but won’t have Randy Foye or JaVale McGee again. Minnesota, which is without three injured starters, has lost six straight, allowing at least 100 points in all of them as one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams. This is the first meeting of the season between these teams.
Key trends: Denver has covered four of the past five meetings. The over is 7-1 in Minnesota’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Like over more than the side.
76ers at Trail Blazers (-15, 197)
Portland begins a seven-game homestand off a thrilling 115-111 overtime win in Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Damian Lillard had a season-high 40 points and hit the tying 3-pointer with three seconds left in regulation. Then he had seven points in the OT. LaMarcus Aldridge played through an upper respiratory illness to score 25 points and grab nine rebounds. The Sixers, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games for the first time all season, and both were in Florida. They rallied from 23 down to stun Miami on Tuesday. All four of Philadelphia’s wins this season have come when Michael Carter-Williams scores at least 20 points (4-2 record). The 76ers are 0-21 in games this season when Carter-Williams either doesn’t play or fails to score 20.
Key trends: Philly has covered six straight against the West. The under is 6-2 in Portland’s past eight after scoring at least 100 points in its previous game.
Early lean: I’ll always take the points when above two touchdowns.
Suns at Kings (pick’em, 215)
Phoenix has won four straight, the last two impressively at Washington and home against Dallas on Tuesday. Eric Bledsoe had 16 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds against the Mavericks for his first triple-double of the season and second career. The Kings, who were also in on Smith, lost 128-108 in Golden State on Monday. Sacramento has lost 11 of 14 games, a skid that began when DeMarcus Cousins came down with viral meningitis and missed 10 games. The Kings won 114-112 in double overtime at Phoenix on Nov. 7. Cousins fouled out late in regulation.
Key trends: The over has hit in six of the past eight meetings. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in the past six in Sacramento.
Early lean: Kings and over.