IN all the noise of the Burmese elections over the weekend, another crucial vote being held in the Indian state of Bihar went largely unnoticed.
Not only did the elections in Bihar engage twice as many people (100 million to Burma’s 53 million) but it could herald just as potent a future for democracy in the Asian region. While India, unlike Burma, is already an established democracy, it faces equally challenging and confronting issues, amongst them rising intolerance, Hindu hardliners and corruption.
The defeat of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar over the weekend is considered a potentially devastating loss that could sound the gong on the party’s and Modi’s immediate future.
(READ MORE: India’s ruling party accepts defeat in crucial state poll)
The Associated Press went so far as to describe the election as “a referendum on Modi’s popularity”. In the end it wasn’t much of a contest. Three regional parties aligned together to defeat the BJP by 178 out of the 243 seats. The BJP won just 58.
What’s more the defeat came despite Modi’s appearance at 26 rallies ahead of the vote, not so long ago a guaranteed vote-getter and perhaps demonstrating his star power is on the wane at home, even though he is still royally welcomed by the diaspora abroad.
While Modi’s own impoverished background once struck a chord with voters in the country, even his promise of jobs and development in the one of India’s poorest states failed to win over the public.
From the BBC:
“Mr Modi was the indisputable face of his party’s campaign in Bihar. He led the campaign, addressing 26 public meetings across the length and breadth of the state. What’s more, his trusted aide Amit Shah, who is also the BJP president and chief poll strategiser, camped in the state and spoke himself at more than 70 meetings. Mr Modi came to Bihar promising jobs and development in a reprise of the campaign which helped him to sweep to power in federal elections last year.”
It’s not the first major defeat for Modi since he came to power in 2014. In February the BJP lost decisively in the Delhi state elections to an anti-corruption party. And since then concern has grown in India over a number of the policies and issues that have been raised under Modi’s government.
Rising intolerance
In October 40 Indian writers returned literary awards to the country’s top literary institution on what they called a “rising intolerance and growing assault on free speech”. The writers returned their awards to the Sahitya Academi for not condemning incidents of suppression and violence, the recent killings of atheist activists or Muslims rumoured to have killed cows.
Booker Prize-winning novelist Arundhati Roy was the last to join the growing number last week, saying minorities “are being forced to live in terror, unsure of when and from where the assault will come”.
Booker Prize-winning novelist Arundhati Roy. Pic: AP.
Hindu hardliners
The recent rise of more extreme Hindusim in India has also become a prickly issue, particularly in regards the treatment of cows. Cows are revered in Hinduism and their slaughter is banned by the state. While their protection has often had a polarising effect, last month a Muslim man in Uttar Pradesh was killed by a mob over a rumour his family had stored and consumed beef. Modi’s silence on the issue for two weeks was telling, even as critics demanded he condemn the killing. He finally released a statement saying Hindus and Muslims should fight poverty and not each other:
Hindus should decide whether to fight Muslims or poverty. Muslims have to decide whether to fight Hindus or poverty. Both need to fight poverty together…. The country has to stay united.
In contrast, writers were not silent. Nayantara Sahgal returned her Sahitya Akademi Award in October with the following statement titled “The Unmaking of India”:
“… India’s culture of diversity and debate is now under vicious assault. Rationalists who question superstition, anyone who questions any aspect of the ugly and dangerous distortion of Hinduism known as Hindutva – whether in the intellectual or artistic sphere, or whether in terms of food habits and lifestyle – are being marginalised, persecuted, or murdered… The Prime Minister remains silent about this reign of terror. We must assume he dare not alienate evil-doers who support his ideology.”
Quotas for minorities
In his election rallies for the Bihar election, the Prime Minister raised the issue of “quota conspiracy” in which he accused Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his RJD ally Lalu Prasad of removing quotas from the Dalits and other lower castes and giving them to “another community”. The inference may well have been to Muslims or terrorists, as he later stated if the BJP lost the election in Bihar, Pakistan would explode crackers.
In the lead up to the election, the Election Commission also banned two of the BJP’s advertisements that were much along the same lines for their potential to “create disharmony and mutual hatred between different communities” according to the Indian Express.
Whatever the long term outcome of the state election, critics believe Modi’s future may actually depend now on how he responds. Will he use the result as a wake-up call to clean up the ugly parts of his policies, understand the nation’s fundamental desire for the amity and democracy under which it was birthed, and concentrate on delivering the growth and development he promised?
If he doesn’t, it’s quite possible the enthusiasm already waning amongst the population at home, may come home to bite.
The post Bihar election may determine Modi’s political future appeared first on Asian Correspondent.