Many fantasy owners focus a bit too literally on expert rankings. Our rankings can definitely be used for “start or sit” decisions, especially as a tie breaker between two similar players. If we rank two players very closely together, however, we are not necessarily intending to make a bold call such as “Player A is a much better option than Player B this week.” We are making that call, though, if we project and rank the players quite far from each other. This is why we prefer to look at “tiers” – any two players within a tier are essentially coin tosses. Only If two players are ranked in different tiers, are you definitively better off (in theory) taking the higher ranked player.
Here are our Week 11 Tiered Rankings (standard scoring)
Quarterbacks
Tier 1
Cam Newton
Cam Newton gets his own Tier this week in a dream matchup vs. the Saints in a primetime game.
Tier 2
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
The Patriots will likely score 4-5 touchdowns this week. How many of those will be Blount’s will dictate how Brady fairs this week. I think after last week’s brutal loss he comes out firing this week and takes it out on the 49ers.
Tier 3
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Rodgers has bit of a tougher matchup against the Redskins this week but he is still a sure fire QB1 like usual. Big Ben has one of the best matchups on paper this week but historically disappoints on the road.
Tier 4
Matthew Stafford
Marcus Mariota
Kirk Cousins
Drew Brees
Eli Manning
A pretty good tier to wrap up QB1’s for the week. Can’t go wrong with either although I think people may be overrating Drew Brees this week. Yes, he has a great matchup against a burnable Panthers secondary but you can’t ignore his rather vanilla stats he puts up outdoors. Still a QB1 of course.
Tier 5
Russell Wilson
Dak Prescott
Blake Bortles
Derek Carr
Andy Dalton
Tyrod Taylor
Alex Smith
Colin Kaepernick
The tail end of the QB1 and top end QB2 this week all seem to be safe bets to rack up rushing stats. Any one of them have the upside to be this week’s top QB, the thing is – it’s hard to pinpoint which one that will be. With Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers on BYE this week you could do worse than having someone in this Tier filling in for this week.
Tier 6
Jameis Winston
Joe Flacco
Carson Palmer
Brock Osweiler
Pretty offensive to the other QBs in here to be grouped with Brock Osweiler here. Truth is, they all have fairly tough matchups while Osweiler is in a great spot and still can only make it to Tier 6. I’m likely avoiding these guys this week.
Tier 7
Cody Kessler
Ryan Tannehill
Jay Cutler
These 3 offer some upside but they all have very low floors and only deep 2 QB leagues or contrarian DFS stacks should use these. Cutler will be even worse now that Jeffery is out 4 games.
Tier 8
Carson Wentz
Sam Bradford
Jared Goff
Wentz flopped in a great matchup at home last week and gets to face the Legion of Boom this week. He sure looks good handing it off to Mathews near the goal line every time. Unfortunately, that doesn’t help anyone using him in Fantasy.
Running Backs
Tier 1
Le’Veon Bell
Last week David Johnson was a Hall-of-Fame fantasy play. The top RB facing one of the worst run D’s we’ve ever seen. He sort of disappointed in total yardage but his 2 TD’s were more than enough. This week I think Bell is in the same boat but people might not realize it. He is going to shred the Browns on the ground AND in the air. This might be one of the best plays I’ve seen in some time.
Tier 2
David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliott
You can’t even put a price tag on the value this year’s elite RB’s bring to the table. With most team’s using a RBBC there are very few workhorses anymore. DJ and Zeke have tough matchups on paper but they are completely matchup proof at this point.
Tier 3
Demarco Murray
LeGarrette Blount
Murray is battling some nagging injuries but hasn’t seen any dip in workload and has a great matchup this week. Blount is in the elite RB1 discussion this week with a 49ers matchup and just say his TD odds rise with Gronk out this week. May be the highest rush TD projection I have given in quite some time (0.92 at the moment).
Tier 4
Spencer Ware
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy
Ware may be a bit under the radar this week. The Bucs have an underrated run defense but I think this game sets up well for KC to pound it with Ware. His TD prospects would be even higher but since KC seems content setting up Santos FG’s over Ware goal-line TDs I’ve had to scale him back in that department.
Tier 5
Todd Gurley
Frank Gore
There are so many different tier levels at RB it’s going to take me 6 to get through the RB1’s, but its reality. You really can’t lump these 2 with any of the above but they make VERY solid plays still.
Tier 6
Jonathan Stewart
Theo Riddick
Isaiah Crowell
Rob Kelley
Latavius Murray
The first batch of RB2’s isn’t pretty. JStew is in as good of a spot you can get but he has 0 involvement in the passing game which makes him a bit of a TD dependent play.
Tier 7
Jordan Howard
Carlos Hyde
C.J. Prosise
Doug Martin
Lamar Miller
Jeremy Hill
Giovani Bernard
Terrance West
Rashad Jennings
It may be odd seeing Lamar Miller this far down. He may very well end up a tier higher by the end of the week but wanted to point out they are playing MNF in Mexico City which is over 7000 feet above sea level. It’s very tough seeing him getting 20+ touches in that situation not to mention they are slowly turning into a bit of a RBBC with Blue/Hunt spelling him a lot more.
Tier 8
Paul Perkins
Mark Ingram
Both are stuck in near even RBBCs at the moment but have the superior talent that may lead them to be a Tier or 2 higher come Fantasy playoff time. Still tough to trust either for now and Ingram has a brutal matchup this week against the defense that made DJ look more like Matt Asiata.
Tier 9
Darren Sproles
Thomas Rawls
Tim Hightower
Ryan Mathews
James Starks
Duke Johnson Jr.
Chris Ivory
Matt Asiata
It’s really hard to trust any of these RB3/Flex plays but they all have potential for a solid week. Rawls will complicate the Seattle RB some and I’m hesitant throwing him out there not expecting him to be limited some with how well Prosise is playing. The Eagles RB situation is hands down the more frustrating one in Fantasy this year.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1
Antonio Brown
Antonio Brown pretty much gets the first 3 tiers to himself since he is so far above the next guy this week (since Julio is on BYE). All signs point to a standard 8 rec 110 yds 1 TD game here.
Tier 4
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
Jordy Nelson
It’s very likely we see Norman shadow Nelson this week which will drop him down a tier if so. The usage rate of these WRs alone makes them matchup proof most weeks.
Tier 5
Amari Cooper
Kelvin Benjamin
Allen Robinson
Larry Fitzgerald
T.Y. Hilton
Michael Crabtree
Dez Bryant
Stefon Diggs
Brandin Cooks
Golden Tate
DeAndre Hopkins
Julian Edelman
Terrelle Pryor Sr.
Doug Baldwin
Jordan Matthews
Michael Thomas
Despite this massive WR1/WR2 tier, definitely take into account the order as it’s always done based on rank. There isn’t a big drop off within the tier itself but keep in mind that I have a 1.5 point difference between Cooper and Thomas.
Tier 6
Rishard Matthews
Cameron Meredith
Donte Moncrief
Davante Adams
Jarvis Landry
Mike Wallace
Marvin Jones Jr.
Willie Snead
Robert Woods
Eddie Royal
Kenny Britt
Jamison Crowder
Corey Coleman
DeVante Parker
Steve Smith Sr.
Eli Rogers
Similar to the tier above. This is a massive WR2/WR3 tier with no real big drop off. All of these WRs have a mixture of upside and some gray areas that cloud their projection some. Cameron Meredith is certainly the one with the biggest jump in value this week as Alshon Jeffery is set to miss the next 4 weeks. He is the favorite to lead the team in targets in the meantime.
Tier 7
Sterling Shepard
Tavon Austin
Pierre Garcon
Randall Cobb
Jeremy Maclin
Tyreek Hill
Allen Hurns
Cole Beasley
Chris Hogan
The last of the WRs even worth mentioning. Pay close attention to Jeremy Maclin’s status since if he misses Week 11 again I like Tyreek Hill in Tier 6. He is seeing some carries now making him a potential Tavon Austin 2.0…a version that seems to be just as talented but a more reliable fantasy play week to week.
Tight Ends
Tier 1
Martellus Bennett
As of right now I have Bennett as having the top Tier all to himself now that Gronk is out. This may change later in the week but I just don’t see how he doesn’t score a TD in this spot.
Tier 2
Greg Olsen
Jimmy Graham
Delanie Walker
Jordan Reed
Tyler Eifert
This is forming as the elite non-Gronk TE1 Tier for the rest of the season. They will interchange each week based on matchup. This week Olsen gets the nod at home verses the Saints.
Tier 3
Travis Kelce
Too good to fall to the tier below and too inconsistent (not a fault of his own) to be in the one above. If Maclin is out again this week he may sneak into Tier 2.
Tier 4
Eric Ebron
Zach Miller
Jason Witten
Kyle Rudolph
C.J. Fiedorowicz
The last of the TE1’s. I think you can worse than having to rely on any of these TEs this week. They are just inconsistent enough to not be slam dunks any given week. Miller should see an uptick in targets with Jeffery out.
Tier 5
Cameron Brate
Jack Doyle
Lance Kendricks
Zach Ertz
Dennis Pitta
This is the final tier of consideration at TE. Hopefully you are not needing to go outside of this. The volume is there for any of these guys to rack up enough yards to not be labeled as a “TD dependent TE”. As always though, you are looking to get a cheap TD from your TE to give your team that nice added boost.
The post Fantasy Football: Week 11 Tiers appeared first on STATS Insights.