The government shutdown is now a work week old. Both sides seem dug in; there’s no deal on the horizon that would allow a funding bill to advance. We don’t know how this will end, but we do know this: at some point, end it will.
Taking into account some things we’ve learned in the last few days, here are some thoughts on what the post-shutdown American political situation will look like.
OBAMACARE SURVIVES. This is a foregone conclusion that’s worth repeating. Nothing President Obama has said in recent days has hinted at any retreat from the position that he would never sign legislation defunding his signature domestic policy achievement.
RECOMMENDED: Government shutdown 101: 12 ways it could affect you
Yet House Republicans have already scaled back their Obamacare position. First they demanded defunding the Affordable Care Act as the cost of advancing a continuing resolution to fund the government. Then they moved to a one-year delay in implementation.
Given that on this issue Obama is obdurate and the House leadership is not, it’s not hard to see that defunding per se is off the table.
TEA PARTY CONSERVATIVES CONSIDER THAT A DEFEAT. Despite the fact that it looked pretty much impossible to derail Obamacare from the beginning, the hard core on the right who pushed House Speaker John Boehner to link the health law and continued government funding in the first place may well consider its continued existence a stinging loss.
They won’t be consoled by what they consider just tweaks to the law, such as a repeal of its tax on medical devices, or passage of the so-called “Vitter amendment,” which would bar Congress from contributing to the purchase of health insurance on Obamacare exchanges by lawmakers and staff.
“This fight needs to be about defunding Obamacare. We need to keep fighting on that ground,” tweeted conservative pundit Erick Erickson on Friday.
OBAMACARE FACES CONTINUED ATTACKS. What follows from the above points is that the Affordable Care Act, one of the biggest changes in the American social contract in a generation, will begin its implementation period while a significant percentage of Congress continues to attempt to undo it or scale the program back. Remember, the GOP establishment says it differs from the tea party on this issue only on tactics, not the end goal. Senate Republicans want to defund Obamacare too; they just don’t want to shut down the government or not raise the US debt ceiling as part of that effort.
SO DOES JOHN BOEHNER. If the tea party thinks they’ve lost, they’ll look for someone to blame, and Boehner will be at the top of the list. He may have won some personal loyalty from conservative House members who have seen that he’s willing to shut down the government on behalf of the defund-Obamacare effort. But outside activists and some conservative Senate Republicans (we won’t name names, but their initials are “Ted Cruz”) might still greatly complicate Boehner’s life by charging that he’s betrayed the movement.
He’s also under pressure from Democrats and moderates in his party to allow a vote on a clean continuing resolution and/or debt ceiling increase, both of which would almost surely pass. Why does he want that job, anyway? Of all the political leaders involved in this crisis, his position is the most precarious, and it will remain so.
And here's a bonus observation:
NONE OF THIS IS UNDEMOCRATIC. As Ezra Klein of Wonkblog notes, the White House sees the current crisis as about Republicans “trying to create a new, deeply undemocratic pathway through which a minority party that lost the last election can enact an agenda that would never pass the normal legislative process.”
Well, sorry White House, but it isn’t. Undemocratic, that is. As we wrote yesterday, a House-Senate-White House standoff such as we’re currently seeing is just the result of the Constitution at work. It’s our old friend from Politics 101 at work: checks and balances. Sometimes the “checks” piece predominates.
And what’s “normal legislative process?” Tying the defunding of Obamacare to a spending bill upon which most of the government is dependent may be novel and dramatic, even outside accepted practice, but it’s allowed under current legislative rules.
Look, tea party conservatives genuinely believe that the implementation of the Affordable Care Act will be ruinous for the country. (Blogger Andrew Sullivan has a great post Friday on this subject.) Given the way they see the stakes, why wouldn’t they use every legislative tool at their disposal?
President Obama and many Democrats, on the other hand, see Obamacare as the fulfillment of a long-delayed march toward social justice. Would they not go as far as John Boehner has if they felt it was necessary for the health law’s survival?
Both Democrats and the tea party are representing the deeply felt convictions of the voters they represent, not just their personal beliefs. Looked at that way, the current Washington situation may seem not an irrational dispute between politicians, but a reflection of a continued political division in the nation as a whole.
Extenze
Genf20 Plus
How to Enlarge Penis
Increase Penis
Male Extra
VigRX Plus
Vimax
Volume Pills
5 Htp
30 Days to Thin
Best Eye Wrinkle Cream
Skin Brightening Reviews
How to Get Rid of Stretch Marks
Dietrine
DigestIt
Eazol
Enlast
Urinary Incontinence Treatment
Goji Berry Health Benefits
Herpeset
HGH Energizer
Hoodia Balance
Hoodia Chaser
Hoodia Gordonii Plus
How to Get Bigger Butt
How to Make a Penis Bigger
Ways to Lower Blood Pressure
Ways to Lower Cholesterol
Omega 3 6 9 Benefits
Idol Tan
Best Teeth Whitening Product
Joint Advance
Lemonade Diet
How to Increase Female Libido
Lipo 6
Liver Active
Make Mine Grow
Maqui Berry Review
Melatrol
Miracet
Best Multi Vitamin For Women
Best Multi Vitamin For Men
Natural Gain Plus
Best Electronic Cigarettes Reviews
Diabetes Supplements
Oxy Sleep
OxyHives
Dog Joint Supplements
Dog Vitamins Reviews
Pro Testosterone
Prostate Health
QuickTrim Reviews
ReloraMax
Resveratrol
Butt Enhancement
Revitol Eye Cream
Pore Minimizer
Revitol Skin Brightener Cream
Skin Exfoliation Products
How to Remove Skin Tags
Stretch Mark Cream Reviews
Saffron Extract Reviews
How to Stop Snoring Naturally
Hypothyroidism Natural Treatment
Best Natural Thyroid Supplements
Xtreme Fat Loss Diet
Home Treatment For Yeast Infection
ZOX Pro
Revolutionary Sex
Sex God Blueprint
The Truth About Cellulite
Linden Method
Paleo Recipe Book
Paleo Burn
Pull Your Ex Back
Capture His Heart
Family Survival System
Make Him Desire You
Enchant Him
Make Women Want You
What Men Secretly Want
Meet Your Sweet
Secret Survey
How Do I Get Him Back
Melt Your Man's Heart
Save My Marriage Today
Girl Gets Ring
Make Small Talk Sexy
10 Second Attraction
Renegade Diet
Carb BackLoading
Muscle Gaining Secrets
The Truth About Abs
Visual Impact Muscle Building
Panic Away
Metabolic Cooking
The Magic of Making Up
Acne No More
Eat Stop Eat
Fat Burning Furnace
Heartburn No More
Lean Hybrid Muscle
Anabolic Cooking
Customized Fat Loss
No Nonsense Muscle Building
Gabriel Method
Grow Taller 4 Idiots
Eating For Energy
Six Pack Shortcuts
The Woman Men Adore and Never Want to Leave
The Truth About Six Pack Abs
37 Critical Food Items
Fibroids Miracle
Eye Floaters No More
Ovarian Cyst Miracle
21 Day Sugar Detox
Tinnitus Miracle
Jump Manual
H Miracle
Fit Yummy Mummy
Penis Enlargement Bible
Yeast Infection No More
Ex2 System
Penis Advantage
Old School New Body
Adonis Golden Ratio
Get Him Back Forever
VigRX Plus Review
GenF20 Plus
Volume Pills
Extenze Reviews
ProSolution Pills
Semenax
ProSolution Gel
Vigrx Oil
Erection Fitness
Vivaxa
Maxoderm
Provacyl
ProExtender System
Nexus Pheromones
GenFx
Virility Pills
Penis Advantage
Penis Enlargement Bible
Make Mine Grow
Boost Your Bust
Grow Taller 4 Idiots
Vimax Reviews
37 Critical Food Items
Ex Recovery System
Penis Enlargement Pill
Jes Extender
Male Edge
Penis Advantage
SizeGenetics
Volume Pills
How to Make Your Penis Bigger
VigRX Oil
Performer5
ProExtender
VigRX Plus
Instant Performer
Nexus Pheromones
Kamasutra Sex Positions
Total Curve
Pregnancy Miracle
Fat Burning Furnace
7 Day Belly Blast Diet
Phen375
Eating Healthy
Eat Stop Eat
Fit Yummy Mummy
Nuratrim
Eating Diets
Cheat Your Way Thin
Every Other Day Diet
Pregnancy Without Pounds
Best Weight Loss Pill
Full Fast
Full Body Licious
The Diet Solutions Program
Burn The Fat Feed The Muscle
Aquaponics For You
Binary Options Pro Signals
How to Declutter Your Home
Earth4Energy
Energy By Tesla
Fast Track Cash
Food For Wealth
How to Build a Boat
How to Build a Model Train
Backyard Landscape Design
How to Make Beauty Products
Green DIY Energy
Woodworking Projects Plans
TradeMiner
How to Make Dog Food
Solar Stirling Plant
Homemade Boat Plans
Nikola Tesla Secret
My Shed Plans
BTV Solo
Chicken Coop Plans Designs
Singorama
Jamorama
Violin Master Pro
Home Made Energy
Earth4Energy
DUB Turbo
Dr Drum
Teds Woodworking
Sonic Producer
Secrets to Dog Training
Rocket Piano
Piano For All
Har Vokse
How to Approach Women
How to Please Woman
How to Lose Man Boobs
How to Get Rid of Man Boobs
Male Breast Reduction
How to Cure Gynecomastia
Treatment For Gynecomastia
How to Last Longer
How to Talk to Women
Green Coffee Bean Extract
Colon Cleanse Reviews
Joint Pain Relief Natural
Best Hair Removal Products
How to Cure Acid Reflux
Chia Seeds Health Benefits
Irritable Bowel Syndrome Treatment
How to Reduce Breast Size
Natural Sleep Aids
Best Skin Care Products
How to Lose Man Breasts Fast
Natural Breast Enlargement
How to Get Rid of Wart
Best Cellulite Treatments
Gynexin
DigestIt
VitaliKoR
Penis Stretchers
Revitol
Performer5
Omega 3 Fish Oils
Jes Extender
Human Growth Hormone Reviews
HGH Energizer
Acai Berry Select
African Mango Reviews
Alteril
Breast Actives
Clear Pores
HerSolution
Idol Lash
Intivar
Male Edge
Male Enhancement Pills
Penis Pills
Penis Health
Phallosan
ProShape
Provestra
Revitol Scar Cream
Provillus
Raspberry Ketone Reviews
SizeGenetics
Best Way to Quit Smoking
Tinnitus Cure Treatment
Total Curve
Triactol
The Truth About Six Pack Abs
Venapro
Vigorelle
Virility EX
Wartrol
XtremeNo
ZetaClear
14 Day Rapid Fat Loss
Acne No More
Adonis Golden Ratio
Carb BackLoading
Challenge Workouts
Eating For Energy
Ejaculation By Command
Ejaculation Guru
Grow Taller 4 Idiots
Hypothyroidism Revolution
Muscle Gaining Secrets
Old School New Body
Panic Away
Primal Burn
The Magic of Making Up
Renegade Diet
Truth About Abs
Visual Impact Muscle Building
Workout Finishers
7 Day Belly Blast Diet
21 Day Sugar Detox
30 Days to Thin
37 Critical Food Items
Adonis Effect
Alteril
Anabolic Cooking
Moroccan Argan Oil
Best Muscle Gain Supplements
How to Get a Bigger Butt
How to Make a Bigger Penis
Capsiplex
Cellulite Factor
Clear Pores
Critical Bench
Customized Fat Loss
Dermefface FX7
Eat Stop Eat
Extreme Stamina
Eye Floaters No More
Fat Burning Furnace
Metabolic Cooking
Penis Advantage
Eat Stop Eat
Fat Burning Furnace
Heartburn No More
30 Days to Thin
Lean Hybrid Muscle
Anabolic Cooking
Customized Fat Loss
No Nonsense Muscle Building
31 Day Fat Loss Cure
ExtenZe
Vimax
VigRX Plus
Carb BackLoading
Male Extra
ProSolution Pills
VitaliKoR
Volume Pills
Semenax
Maxoderm
GenF20 Plus
How to Call Men
Mack Tactics
Guy Gets Girl
Guy Magnet
Green Coffee Bean Extract
Breast Enlargement Pills
Best Breast Reduction
Gynexol
How to Get a Boyfriend Back
How to Get Rid of Cellulite
Penis Enlargement Bible
Phallosan
How to Lose Man Boobs
Old School New Body
Total Wellness Cleanse
Yeast Infection No More
Text Your Ex Back
Friends Into Lovers
Text the Romance Back
Jump Manual
Penis Perfect
Vimax
Trick Photography and Special Effects
Miami Ink Tattoo