2013-03-27

Musharraf is back: Is Pakistan gearing up for a political war?

- By DR. ABDUL RUFF

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[Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal, Educationist, Chancellor-Founder of Centor for International Affairs(CIA); Specialist on State Terrorism ; Global columnist, Commentator on world affairs , Expert on Mideast Affairs, Analyst on sport fixings , Chronicler of Foreign occupations & Freedom movements (Palestine, Kashmir, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Xinjiang, Chechnya, etc.) Former university Teacher; Editor:INTERNATIONAL OPINION (http://abdulruff.wordpress.com) website: http://abdulruff.wordpress.com/ write to me: abdulruff_jnu@yahoo.com}

After exile

Former Pakistani President Pervez GEN Musharraf returned to Pakistan by ending more than four years in self-exile on 25th March with a flight to his homeland, seeking a possible political comeback in defiance of judicial probes and death threats from Taliban forces. The journey to Karachi from exile in Dubai is intended as the first step in his goal of rebuilding his image after years on the political margins. Musharraf plans to spend a few days at a hotel in Karachi, where he and his team would hash out their plan for the upcoming election. He will then travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, his legal team will meet to decide the best way to respond to the charges against him.

Musharraf is fondly remembered by many people in this city of 18 million people where he heavily backed the Muttahida Quami Movement — the city's dominant political party. Supporters threw rose petals and enthusiastically waved flags emblazoned with pictures of Musharraf and Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, but their energy did not mask their numbers. If he claims nationwide support, that would be a joke; a misplaced optimism about oneself. Musharraf's welcoming party, estimated at between 1,000 and 2,000, was small compared with the hundreds of thousands of people who thronged this same terminal when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan or the tens of thousands who turned out for a rally in Lahore for cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan.

As he arrived, Musharraf was whisked away by security forces in a convoy of about a dozen vehicles shortly after he touched down in the southern port city of Karachi and did not allow him to greet hundreds of supporters waiting at the airport, ready to shower him with rose petals. The move angered her supporters travelling with the former president. Musharraf was whisked out of the airport inside an armored vehicle, surrounded by a phalanx of police and paramilitary security forces. It was a reminder of the security threats Musharraf faces.

Once Pakistani strongman, Pervez had promised to return to his homeland many times before. Musharraf announced in early March that he would lead his party, the All Pakistan Muslim League, in May elections. He finally followed through, boarding a plane in Dubai with supporters and journalists and flying to the southern port metropolis of Karachi, the largest city in the nation.

The flight from Dubai, where he lived in exile, came after several failed promises to return in recent years. "I have come back for you. I want you to get back the Pakistan that I had left when we used to feel proud in ourselves," he said. Stepping out of the terminal, surrounded by police and supporters, he portrayed himself as a savior seeking to return the country to the prosperity and stability that supporters say marked his presidency.

Musharraf had been expected to address supporters at a gathering Sunday in Karachi near the mausoleum of Pakistan's founding father Mohammed Ali Jinnah. But police decided to cancel his permit because of a "very serious threat," said Tahir Naveed, the deputy inspector general of Karachi police. He said Musharraf would be provided with an armored vehicle to protect him due to the threats. Banners and billboards welcoming Musharraf back to Pakistan lined the street from the airport where he is expected to land.

Confusion prevailed early hours of his arrival about his status. It was not clear if the security forces had detained Musharraf, who faces legal charges, or acted out of concern for his safety. Many paramilitary Rangers and police had been stationed at the airport with their rifles at the ready awaiting his arrival. Musharraf's supporters, including elements of the military and members of Pakistan's influential expatriate communities, consider him a strong leader whose voice could help stabilize the country.

Musharraf- the multifaceted personality

Musharraf represents a polarizing force that could further complicate Pakistan's attempt to hold parliamentary elections in May and stage its first transition from one civilian government to another.Regardless of his political future, Musharraf appeared happy to be back on Pakistani soil. Soon after he landed, Musharraf tweeted: "Thrilled to be back home."

The return of Musharraf to Pakistan was made easier when a court in Sindh province where Karachi is located granted him pre-emptive bail, which essentially meant he could not be arrested immediately upon landing. But he must appear before a court within 10 days, and there is no guarantee that he won't be arrested in the future. Human Rights Watch has called on the Pakistani government to prosecute him for abuses he is alleged to have committed during his time in office.

Musharraf met briefly with reporters in Dubai before heading to the airport wearing a white shalwar kameez — the traditional loose-fitting outfit in Pakistan — and sandals from the country's Peshawar region near the Afghan border. He mingled with supporters aboard the plane on the way to Karachi, as some of them chanted slogans for his party. A serious security threat prompted the Pakistani police to cancel a rally that supporters had wanted to hold for Musharraf near Jinnah's mausoleum. And organizers at the airport repeatedly asked his boisterous supporters to move away from the front of the terminal so Musharraf could go outside to greet people.

Musharraf, a four-star general who was chief of the army, took power in a 1999 coup and his military-led regime steered the country for nearly a decade until he was forced to step down in 2008 as president. Confronted with mounting criticism and widespread protests after he tried to dismiss a popular chief justice, he left facing impeachment by the newly elected parliament. He later left the country and has been living between London and Dubai ever since.

Known earlier as a dictator, Musharraf too has a few supporters in Pakistan. Musharraf's supporters, including elements of the military and members of Pakistan's influential expatriate communities, consider him a strong leader whose voice — even just in parliament — could help stabilize the country. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Musharraf came under intense pressure from the U.S. to back the Americans in the coming war in Afghanistan and cut off ties with the Taliban, which he did. For that, militants as well as many other Pakistanis saw him as carrying out the American agenda in Pakistan.

Musharraf was forced to step down in 2008 amid growing discontent over his rule. He has since lived in Dubai and London. His decision to return was given a boost last week when a Pakistan court granted him pre-emptive bail — essentially preventing his immediate arrest — in three cases in which he's implicated, including Bhutto's death. He now has 10 days to appear in court. He has dismissed the various charges as baseless. His return comes as Pakistan seeks for the first time to hand power from one elected government to another.

Muslims in general dislike Musharraf Musharraf for his historic decision to side with America in the response to the great hoax called “Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks”. And then ever since Musharraf brutally killed the Islamic scholars and worshippers inside Red Mosque, he is being viewed as an enemy by many Islamic fighters and other Muslims. On 24th March the Pakistani Taliban vowed to mobilize death squads to send Musharraf "to hell" if he returns. The army said “militants” launched a suicide car bomb attack against a military check post in the country's northwest tribal region, killing 17 soldiers.

Musharraf faces legal charges, including some originating from the probe of the 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who also spent time in self-imposed exile in Dubai before returning. In addition to the Bhutto case, Musharraf also faces charges resulting from investigations into the killing of Akbar Bugti, a Baluch nationalist leader who died in August 2006 after a standoff with the Pakistani military. In another case, he's accused of illegally removing a number of judges including the chief justice of the Supreme Court. Musharraf has been implicated in the killing of Akbar Bugti, a Baluch nationalist leader who died in August 2006 after a standoff with the Pakistani military.

The former general angered many Pakistanis with his decision in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks to back the U.S. in its invasion of Afghanistan and cut off ties with the Taliban. Militants as well as many other Pakistanis saw him as carrying out the American agenda in Pakistan. Militants were further infuriated with Musharraf when he decided in 2007 to raid a mosque in Islamabad that had become a center for militants opposed to the U.S. Pakistani officials said 102 people, mostly supporters of the mosque, died in the week-long operation.

Musharraf is also vilified by strong Taliban fighters for ordering the 2007 raid against a mosque in downtown Islamabad that had become a sanctuary for militants opposed to Pakistan's support of the war in Afghanistan. At least 102 people were killed in the weeklong operation, most of them supporters of the mosque. Attempts had been made to kill Musharraf twice in December 2003 in Rawalpindi, where the Pakistani military is headquartered. First they placed a bomb intended to go off when his convoy passed by. When that didn't work, suicide attackers tried to ram his motorcade with explosives-laden vehicles. The president was unhurt but 16 others died. The Pakistan Taliban vowed to kill him in a video released on the eve of his return . One of the featured speakers in the video — former Pakistan Air Force officer Adnan Rashid — was convicted of helping plot an assassination attempt against Musharraf back in 2003 when a suicide bomber tried to ram his vehicle. Rashid was imprisoned, but he escaped during a jail break orchestrated by the Taliban. In the video, he said Musharraf should surrender himself to the Taliban or prepare to be hit again. One of the two people speaking in the video was Adnan Rashid, a former Pakistani air force officer convicted in an attack against Musharraf. The Taliban broke Rashid out of prison last year, along with nearly 400 other detainees. "The mujahedeen of Islam have prepared a death squad to send Pervez Musharraf to hell," said Rashid, who spoke in the video in front of a group of about 20 militants holding rifles. "We warn you to surrender yourself to us. Otherwise we will hit you from where you will never reckon."

Can former soldier Musharraf develop cold feet now? World must be curious about his moves.

Observations

Yes, Musharraf returned home hoping to make a political comeback despite Taliban death threats and looming arrest warrants. But judging by the lackluster crowd at the airport to greet him, his biggest challenge could be his waning popularity. Since the former general was forced from power, Pakistan's corrupt civilian leadership has struggled with a sinking economy, resilient Islamic factions and tensions with Washington over drone strikes and the secret raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

When former general Musharraf decided to set his foot on Pakistani soil again, there was disquiet in Pakistan as people are confused over cause and effect of the new development in Pakistani politics. His return comes as Pakistan is poised to transition from one democratically elected government to another — a first for a country that has experienced three coups since its 1947 inception. After years on the margins of Pakistani politics, Musharraf is seeking to rebuild his image, hoping to capitalize on an electorate frustrated with five years of rising inflation, rolling blackouts and security problems

President Zardari's dear son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari being promoted to take over power in Pakistan has hurriedly left Pakistan upon Musharraf's arrival and this cannot be a mere coincidence. Maybe Musharraf has comeback as per his secret agreement with Zardari mediated by Saudi Arabia, Dubai, UK and even USA,

The election comes as the country is struggling with rolling blackouts, rising inflation and widespread security problems.The country passed another milestone when the election commission appointed Mir Hazar Khan Khoso a former high court chief justiceas caretaker prime minister to run the government ahead of elections, a step that is designed to promote electoral independence. The commission chose Mir Hazar Khan Khoso out of four nominees, two submitted by the recently ruling Pakistan People's Party and two by the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-N. Khoso served as the chief justice to the high court in southwest Baluchistan province and also briefly served as the acting governor of the province.

Popular sentiments unleashed by activist leader Mohd Qadri’s arrival in public domain with a clear political message are still alive. Former cricketer Imran also tries his luck in the poll. But without a mass base what will poor Musharraf do now?

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د. عبد راف

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