Walaupun beberapa penganalisis politik meramalkan Hillary Clinton akan menjadi presiden AS ke-45, ternyata Donald Trump dari Republikan mengalahkan beliau hari ini. Selain memenangi jawatan presiden AS, Trump turut memeranjatkan banyak pihak setelah mencatat kemenangan mengejutkan di negeri-negeri sengit termasuk Florida, Ohio dan Carolina Utara.
Namun, selepas sudah terang lagi bersuluh Trump mendahului perlumbaan, nilai dolar AS menjunam manakala pasaran saham pula menunjukkan trend terkebelakang. Para pelabur pula, di sisi lain, berasa bimbang jika kemenangan Trump itu akan mencetuskan ketidak tentuan global.
Di sebalik semua, apa maknanya kemenangan Trump ini untuk Malaysia? Malaysiakini menemu bual beberapa penganalisis bagi mendapatkan petunjuk mengenai implikasi kemenangan jutawan AS kontroversi itu kepada Malaysia.
Felo kanan Sekolah Pengajian Antarabangsa S Rajaratnam di Singapura, Oh Ei Sun percaya Trump akan menggunakan pendekatan lebih pragmatik dalam berurusan dengan negara-negara asing.
"Sebagai ahli perniagaan, Trump akan berkata apa sahaja yang pelanggan (pengundi) mahu mendengar, beliau akan sekat apa jua urusniaga untuk kekal berkuasa," jelas Oh.
Pengarah Institut Asia di Universiti Tasmania, James Chin pula, di sisi lain berkata, Trump akan menumpukan seluruh perhatian kepada AS sebagai permulaannya.
"Kita akan melihat lebih banyak perlindungan perdagangan kepada Amerika dan tindakan ini akan menjejaskan negara-negara kecil seperti Malaysia."
Berkenaan Perjanjian Perkongsian Trans-Pasifik (TPPA) - yang dimeterai awal tahun ini - kedua-dua penganalisis percaya perjanjian perdagangan itu 'terbatal' setelah Trump telah menyatakan secara jelas bahawa beliau menentang perjanjian itu.
Jadi, apa yang bakal terjadi kepada pakatan perdagangan? Oh menegaskan bagaimana kerajaan AS telah, pada masa lalu, memeterai banyak perjanjian dengan tidak mendapat pengesahan Senat.
"Oleh itu, ia berlaku tanpa sebarang kesan undang-undang ke AS," ujar Oh lagi.
Pada masa yang sama, beliau turut percaya hubungan Malaysia dengan China akan terus kukuh sambil merujuk kepada trend pelaburan AS yang mendatar di Malaysia.
"Dan akan kekal mendatar selagi ekonomi AS masih berkeladak."
Chin, sementara itu, percaya Trump tidak mungkin akan mendepani China mengenai isu Laut China Selatan.
"China akan meraih manfaat jika AS tidak berminat tentang Laut China Selatan," katanya.
Mengenai tuntutan mahkamah Jabatan Keadilan (DOJ) AS, - yang mahu mendapatkan semula lebih AS$1 bilion nilai aset dikaitkan dengan 1MDB - Chin percaya saman itu akan diteruskan.
"DOJ bebas daripada Rumah Putih," tambahnya.
Nurul Izzah berharap dengan pemilihan Donald Trump sebagai Presiden Amerika Syarikat, saman Jabatan Kehakiman (DOJ)mengenai penyalahgunaan dana 1MDB tidak akan terjejas.
Naib Presiden PKR itu juga mendakwa Najib pandai mengelak dan memutar belit dalam banyak perkara kerana kedudukannya.
Untuk berlaku adil, Ahli Parlimen Lembah Pantai berkata DOJ sentiasa mengambil tindakan dengan cara yang agak bebas.
"Saya berharap dan percaya kes DOJ tidak akan terjejas oleh pemilihan Trump sebagai Presiden," katanya sebagai respons kepada keputusan pilihan raya presiden Amerika Syarikat.
Dokumen-dokumen DOJ tidak menamakan Najib, tetapi disebut individu sebagai "Rasmi Malaysia 1". - mk
Berkecuali Dan Ponteng, PAS Dikecam Kerana Khianati Pengundi
So what lies ahead for Malaysia
with Trump's victory...
Despite pundits favouring Hillary Clinton to win the US presidential race, Republican Donald Trump beat the odds and is set to become the 45th President of the United States. Trump even secured victory in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
But after it was apparent how Trump was leading the race, the US dollar sank and stock markets slammed into reverse. Investors, on the other hand, are worried that Trump’s victory would cause global uncertainties.
But what is really in it for Malaysia, then?
Malaysiakini spoke to several analysts regarding the implications of the controversial billionaire’s victory on Malaysia.
Senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore Oh Ei Sun believes that Trump will have a more pragmatic approach when it comes to dealing with foreign countries.
“As a businessman, Trump would say whatever customers (voters) want to hear to win, he will cut whatever deals to stay in power,” said Oh.
James Chin, director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania, on the other hand, said Trump will first concentrate on the US.
“We will see a more trade protectionist America and this will hurt small countries like Malaysia."
As for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) - which was inked earlier this year - both Oh and Chin believe that the trade pact is “doomed” as Trump had made it clear that he opposed the deal.
So what would come of the trade pact, then?
Oh pointed out how the US government had, in the past, signed many treaties in which the Senate did not ratify.
“So they just lie there without legal effect to the US,” said Oh.
Meanwhile, he also believes that Malaysia’s relation with China will remain strong, pointing to the stagnant US investment in Malaysia.
“And will remain so (stagnant) as long as US economy is still tanking.”
Chin, meanwhile, believes that Trump is less likely to confront China on the South China Sea issue.
“China will gain if the US is not interested in the South China Sea,” he said.
As for the US Department of Justice lawsuit - which seeks to recover more than US$1 billion worth of assets linked to Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s brainchild 1MDB - Chin believes that the suit will go ahead.
“The DOJ is independent of the White House,” he pointed out.
With Donald Trump elected as United States president, Nurul Izzah Anwar hopes the Department of Justice (DOJ) suit regarding the alleged abuse of 1MDB funds will not be affected.
Training her guns on Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, the PKR vice-president claimed the latter is able to dodge numerous things because of his position.
"This is thanks to his supreme control in the Malaysia government, and different branches of democracy in Malaysia," she added when met in Parliament.
To be fair, the Lembah Pantai MP said DOJ had always taken actions in a rather independent manner.
"I hope and believe the DOJ case won't be affected by Trump's presidency," she added in response to the US presidential election results.
The DOJ documents did not name Najib, but mentioned an individual as "Malaysian Official 1".
The Republicans today scored a clean sweep by also securing control of both the upper and lower houses of Congress. The latest presidential campaign had focused more on the character of the candidates than on policies.
Both Clinton and Trump had accused each other of being fundamentally unfit to lead the country. - mk
Here are some immediate
effects of Trump's victory...
1. The Mexican peso has fallen 5%. Trump has promised to build a wall between the US and Mexico. He also wishes to send back 12 million illegal Mexicans.
2. Google says searches for 'How to move to Canada' have spiked today. Obviously by Clinton supporters.
3. The Hippo's husband is trying drastically to make a congratulatory phone call to Trump. I am told the line is busy.
The vote has been quite close with Trump winning by a margin of about 2% of the popular vote. In my view Trump won because of some pull factors in his platform as well as push factors about Hillary Clinton.
There is one more point : gender. A few months back I met an official from the US Embassy here in KL. He seemed to agree with me that Hillary would not win. He also seemed to agree that the US electorate was not yet ready to vote for a woman president.
I lived in the US for almost five years during the 80s. I feel the general view prevailing at that time (that the US was not yet ready for a woman president) has not changed.
The US is not Europe or Australia. Women have been elected leaders in the UK, Germany, Australia, in South America and other countries like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Trump's victory is also a milestone event in that the West is waking up from their 'liberalist' views about post WW2 "non western" immigration and multi cultural tolerance. It is not working.
And Muslim immigrants especially are not fitting in easily in their adopted Western countries. Do you recall Pauline Hanson? The female leader of the right wing One-Nation Party in Australia? Pauline Hanson wants to kick out all the 'non whites' from Australia. Even before he crossed the winning line Pauline Hanson tweeted a congratulatory message to Trump. Trump's victory is a signal for a new right wing politics in the West.
Over in France another woman and anti immigration right winger Marine Le Pen, is poised to become France's first woman president in 2017. (Of course she has to win the elections first.)
In the Netherlands, another anti immigration, ultra right winger Gert Wilders is also leading the field to become Holland's Prime Minister next year.
Over in Germany, Angela Merkel's super liberal policies towards Muslim immigrants have perhaps wounded her party fatally. The right wing in Germany is also on the ascendant. Heil !
The point I am trying to make is that these countries are all democracies. Democracies capture the will of the people quite well. (Perhaps almost as good as modern 'communist' China !) At the end of the day, this is what their society wants.- ostb
Najib,US lain,Malaysia lain...
In his congratulatory message, Najib said Malaysia looked forward to continuing its partnership with the US under the president elect. He said Trump's "remarkable victory" proved opinion polls and media commentators wrong, and he did so by focusing on those who have been left behind.
"Mr Trump’s success shows that politicians should never take voters for granted. Opinion polls, and established political figures, all underestimated the strength of his support.
The entire US election process, not just the results, is a lesson for all of us and especially for you and UMNO, Najib.
Before 8th. November, there was no helpful organisation redrawing the electoral boundaries to ensure a particular candidate won.
In fact there was not a single squeak of cheating or rigging, not in a single one of the 50 states.
Candidates were free to travel anywhere they wanted to campaign, there were no helpful governors to prevent Republicans from entering their state.
There were no Jamals, the media was free, to take sides or be neutral, and journalists were not harrassed by helpful police chiefs under charges of sedition.
Speaking of which, one could say anything he wanted about Trump or Clinton without the FBI picking him up under more charges of sedition.
Now that Trump has won, he is not going to block funds to the blue states but he may be cautious about who he plays golf with. Gee whiz, these Americans sure take the fun out of parliamentary democracy. - Vijay47
cheers.