It’s time for our annual trip down to Vegas as we try not to lose our entire life savings in betting the first 2 days of the NCAA Tournament. I have done this for 3 years running now, and in general, I have been pretty terrible. My advice is to take what I have picked and then do the opposite. And then split the winnings with me. But I promise I have actually done the research on these games to come to an “educated” conclusion. So without further rambling, here are my picks AGAINST THE SPREAD for today’s games.
(These picks for entertainment purposes only)
3. Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. 14. Northeastern (12:15, Pittsburgh)
PICK: NOTRE DAME -12.5
Why: This was a tough one because we have seen plenty of examples where team’s get hot in their conference tournament and then flame out come NCAA Tournament. This pick is more geared against Northeastern, which lost 6 games in the Colonial. They did not close out the season hot, losing 3 of their last 7 games, again in the Colonial. They only played 1 tournament team in the non-conference, and lost to Harvard by 14. And they don’t turn over their opponent very often, ranking 283rd in the country in that category. I think we might be overvaluing Notre Dame overall, but this matchup is pretty good and I like the Irish.
3. Iowa State (-13.5) vs. 14. UAB (12:40, Louisville)
PICK: IOWA STATE -13.5
Why: UAB was just 16-15 when they entered the Conference USA Tournament. They needed a last second shot to beat WKU in the quarterfinals, overtime of their semifinal game, and then got another longshot in MTSU in the finals. And they got to do it all on their home floor. Why facing Top 20 opponents this year, they lost to Wisconsin by 29 and North Carolina by 31. I think Iowa State at their best is in the same league as the Tar Heels, so covering 14 points should be easy. Plus, they have a star in Georges Niang who was injured in last year’s tournament and is likely out for blood.
3. Baylor (-9) vs. 14. Georgia State (1:40, Jacksonville)
PICK: GEORGIA STATE +9
Why: I think the 1 and 2 seeds are safe. Baylor is the 3 seed I would be worried about winning, much less covering 9 points. Georgia State has 2 guys who played in high profile games in Kevin Ware and Ryan Harrow, so the moment will likely not overwhelm them. Plus their 38-36 ugly game in the Sun Belt Championship has some people shying away. But the fact is they were 65th in the country in PPG this year, so they can score. Baylor is just wildly inconsistent and I think GSU will be able to turn them over. Look for Harrow to become a first day star. Seriously.
2. Arizona (-23) vs. 15. Texas Southern (2:10, Portland)
PICK: ARIZONA -23
Why: This is not Lute Olsen’s Wildcats. Meaning they won’t flame out in the 1st round. Plus, I have a feeling Sean Miller’s team will play with a chip on their shoulder after coming so close to the Final Four last year. Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis, so that’s already a strike on them there. Plus they don’t rank in the top half of basketball in any of these categories: Points per game, Rebounds per game, Assists per game, Points Allowed per game, Field Goal % defense. There are some teams in the bracket that Texas Southern could scare, but they are getting a very hot, very motivated Arizona team.
6. Butler vs. 11. Texas (-1.5) (2:45, Pittsburgh)
PICK: TEXAS -1.5
Why: This game entirely depends on what Texas squad you get. Do you get the ultra-talented group that played UK tight in December? Or do you get the team that went 2-10 against ranked opponents and lost 4 straight as recently as February? My guess, and it’s a complete guess, is you get the good Texas here. Plus they match up well with undersized Butler. And the Bulldogs come in slumping, losers in 4 of 8. Call this an unsteady pick, but if good Texas shows up, I feel comfortable about this pick.
6. SMU (-3.5) vs. 11. UCLA (3:10, Louisville)
PICK: SMU -3.5
Why: The Mustangs have flown a little under the radar all year as a fringe Top 25 team but they have some serious Top 25 talent. Nic Moore is a high major talent and obviously Larry Brown can coach a little. UCLA, on the other hand, has flown right into the radar and crashed and burned all year. They probably don’t even deserve to be here. They beat Utah at home but away from Los Angeles, their best win is against Stanford, an NIT team. SMU defends the crap out of you, and UCLA struggles to score. Surprised the spread is that low. I see this game as a mismatch.
6. Xavier vs 11. Ole Miss (4:10, Jacksonville)
PICK: XAVIER -3
Why: IT’S A TRAP!!! People are looking at the Ole Miss performance against BYU and the 62 second half points and jumping all over the Rebels. SEC fans know better. Ole Miss is a big gigantic tease. BYU wasn’t tough enough to hold a 17-point halftime lead. Xavier will have no such problems. And let’s not forget Ole Miss gave up 90 points as well. This will be an up and down game, but Xavier is better than BYU and I like the Musketeers.
7. VCU vs. 10. Ohio State (-3.5) (4:40, Portland)
PICK: VCU +3.5
Why: Deangelo Russell is maybe the best player in the country. But the VCU “Havoc” defense has a way of disrupting good players. This is a tough game to pick because of Russell. I could see him having a Steph Curry like tournament, but his supporting cast is really average. I just imagine Shaka Smart’s team really harassing the freshman. Plus VCU winning their conference tournament against a good slate of teams points me to them peaking at the right time.
1. Villanova (-22) vs. 16. Lafayette (6:50, Pittsburgh)
PICK: VILLANOVA -22
Why: I won’t be picking the 1 seeds to all cover, but the one I am most confident about is Villanova. First off, they are highly undervalued. There are probably more people picking Michigan State out of the East Region than Villanova. Why? They are 32-2, have great guards and are playing their best right now. Secondarily, Lafayette gives up a TON of points. 316th in the country in points allowed. Look for Villanova to crack 90 points and win by a bunch more than 22.
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Purdue (-2) (7:10, Louisville)
PICK: CINCINNATI +2
Why: Call it a weird gut feeling, but I think Purdue wins this game by 1. These 2 teams are the utter definition of mediocrity so picking a winner is tough. Purdue definitely has an advantage in the post but UC’s defense is stout. Expect them to pack it in and take their chances. What is interesting is Cinci is near the bottom in the NCAA in points scored but in the Top 100 in field goal percentage. They are going to grind the game out. A complete guess on my part here.
4. North Carolina (-10.5) vs. 13. Harvard (7:20, Jacksonville)
PICK: HARVARD +10.5
Why: At first glance, UNC seems like the pick. They had a great ACC Tournament, they are healthy again, and they are seeing improved production from the whole team. But with that said, they still have lost 6 out of their last 14 games. They are not as hot as you think. Harvard is making it’s 4th straight tournament appearance and has won games in the last 2 tournaments. They are not as good as they have been in the past, but they are good enough to stay within 10 points of UNC. I think this game is real close and Marcus Paige closes it out with a big shot at the end.
5. Utah (-6.5) vs. 12. Stephen F. Austin (7:27, Portland)
PICK: UTAH -6.5
Why: SFA is a trendy upset pick, so I would imagine most people would jump all over them getting 6.5 points. I think Utah is a sleeper Final Four pick. And SFA played such a light schedule, even in the non-conference. They lost by 18 to Xavier and 16 to Baylor. I see how people are down on Utah, losers of 4 of 7. I just know what I saw from them most of the year and how tough they played Arizona late in the year. I think this will be a competitive game for 30 minutes before Utah pulls away for a 10-12 point victory.
8. NC State (-2.5) vs. 9. LSU (9:20, Pittsburgh)
PICK: NC STATE -2.5
Why: As long as Johnny Jones is the coach of LSU and doesn’t know how a shot clock works, I am picking against the Tigers. I’m not even sure Jones will get his team to arena on time. I am predicting a forfeit.
1. Kentucky (-32) vs. 16. Hampton (9:40, Louisville)
PICK: KENTUCKY -32
Why: I am actually not confident about this spread because UK has a tendency to coast in the 2nd half of games they are dominating. What will be interesting is seeing if Hampton reaches 40 points. Either way, can’t pick against the Cats.
5. Arkansas (-7.5) vs. 12. Wofford (9:50, Jacksonville)
PICK: WOFFORD +7.5
Why: Is this too easy? The Hogs seem like perfect bait to be upset. They are undisciplined on the offensive end and Wofford excels on defense. If they can take care of the ball, I see them beating Arkansas. Bobby Portis was a non-factor in Nashville and it will be interesting to see how Wofford defends him and Michael Qualls. There is no reason Arkansas shouldn’t win this game, but if they have taught us anything this year it’s that those are the types of games they will lose.
4. Georgetown (-7) vs. 13. Eastern Washington (9:57, Portland)
PICK: EASTERN WASHINGTON +7
Why: Waaaaaaayyyyyyy too many point for the Hoyas. They are travelling cross country to play a team from the west coast. EWU has the nation’s leading scorer. EWU has won 13 of their last 16 games and those 3 losses came by 4, 2, and 1 point respectively. I am not saying Georgetown can’t pull out a win but I am simply saying that 7 points is a lot for team that is 3rd in the country in scoring. By the way, the Hoyas are not as good on defense as normal, ranking 131st in scoring defense in the nation.