Head coach Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern have a tough test in high-scoring Pittsburgh. Will the 'Cats win their third bowl game ever?
Photo by Mia Zanzucchi / North by Northwestern
For Northwestern (6-6, 5-4 Big Ten) the Pinstripe Bowl is a chance to make history. The Wildcats are 2-10 all-time in bowls, with their last win coming in the 2013 Gator Bowl. If NU beats No. 22 Pittsburgh (8-4, 5-3 ACC) Wednesday, a few seniors can become the only Wildcats to ever win two bowl games in their NU careers. At 6-6, the 'Cats are also looking to put together consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 2009-10. The Pinstripe Bowl has historical implications for the Wildcats – will they be able to pull off a victory?
For an in-depth preview of the Pinstripe Bowl, click here.
Pittsburgh 44, Northwestern 38 – Will Fischer
Pitt has played this type of high-scoring shootout all year, and it knows how to win these games. The Panthers beat No. 2 Clemson 43-42 and No. 5 Penn State 42-39 – does NU even have a chance? Well, NU's offense is capable of high-scoring performances itself (54 points against Michigan State and 38 against Iowa), but it seems far-fetched to suggest that the Wildcats will beat the Panthers at their own game.
Both teams will have success through the air, but the key to this game might actually be on the ground. James Conner and Justin Jackson are two of the best running backs in the country, and both are indispensable to their respective offenses. The team that gains the edge on the ground will be able to control the game, and should be able to grab the victory.
NU's inconsistent offensive line doesn't exactly inspire confidence, but the 'Cats are capable of winning the battle in the trenches, and they will have to Wednesday. Still, Pitt's high-scoring offense and success in shootouts might be too much for the Wildcats, and I'm not convinced NU can outscore Pitt.
Northwestern 41, Pittsburgh 39 – Hayden King
The Pitt Panthers may play in the ACC, but they belong in the Pac 12. Their offense is carried by a reliable running back in James Conner, a steady passer in Nathan Peterman and a human Ferrari in Quadree Henderson. Pitt runs the ball nearly twice as much as it throws, but it still scores over 42 points per contest, which ranks 11th in the nation. The Panthers' defense, however, allows the 20th most points per game in the country. To put that in perspective: they rank just below UTEP and just above Kansas and Hawai’i in scoring defense.
NU has shown the ability to put up points this season, and Clayton Thorson should be able to take advantage of a Pitt defense that allows the second most passing yards per game in the country. The Wildcats' rushing defense has been solid throughout the year, but they haven’t seen rushes at this volume all year.
What looks to be a close game on paper could come down to the final play. I can see it now. The Panthers, down by 2, inch their way down the field. They set up a game winning field goal for their kicker, aptly named Chris Blewitt. He blows it. Roll ‘Cats.
Pittsburgh 34, Northwestern 30 – Trevor Lystad
Expect a shootout at Yankee Stadium. Pitt’s high-flying offense led by NFL-bound running back James Conner has led it to impressive wins over both Clemson and Penn State this year, and while the ‘Cats' defense isn’t awful, I wouldn’t expect them to perform much better than the Tigers or Nittany Lions at stopping the run.
However, Pitt’s defense is pretty bad as well. They consistently allowed teams over 300 yards passing, and NU tends to do well when quarterback Clayton Thorson is on. Look for a big game out of Thorson, as well as superstar receiver Austin Carr, to keep NU close.
That said, Pitt’s tough defensive front led by Ejuan Price will keep pressure on Thorson and could make it hard for running back Justin Jackson to get going behind an inconsistent NU offensive line. Thorson and Carr should keep NU in the game, but Pitt’s powerful offense will keep the ‘Cats from their first bowl victory since 2012.
Pittsburgh 24, Northwestern 23 – Evan Denton
In their six wins this season, the ‘Cats were clicking on all cylinders, averaging 37.8 points. However, in NU’s six losses, the offense only mustered 13.3 points, including just seven against FCS-foe Illinois State.
The good news for the ‘Cats is that Pittsburgh’s defense, specifically its pass coverage, is abysmal, allowing over 340 passing yards per game. Clayton Thorson and Biletnikoff Award finalist Austin Carr should have a field day dicing up Pitt’s secondary.
On defense, Anthony Walker Jr. and Co. will have their hands full against Pittsburgh’s physical, downhill running attack. Behind James Conner, Pittsburgh’s star junior running back, the Pittsburgh offense has been on fire during its current 3-game win streak, including a 43-42 road win against No. 2 Clemson.
This game will be won in the trenches. Pitt’s starting offensive linemen all weigh more than 300 pounds and have allowed just nine sacks all year. In contrast, NU’s undersized defensive line has totaled 26 sacks. Whichever unit wins this battle will most likely win the game.
Northwestern 38, Pittsburgh 31 – Megan Pisarczyk
This game isn’t going to be a blowout for either team, but the Wildcats can edge Pitt with a strong passing game. The Panthers were one of the worst teams in the country when it came to pass yards allowed per game: Pitt allowed 343 pass yards on average, and had two games where they allowed over 500 yards of passing offense from their opponents.
NU will have the best chance if Clayton Thorson has time to find Austin Carr and the dynamic duo can work harmoniously to move the Wildcats downfield. Carr has had six games this season with 100 yards, and the Pitt defense won’t attack the NU passing game hard enough to prevent him from getting to seven.
The ‘Cats will finish the 2016 season with a winning record if they beat Pitt, and if they channel play like we’ve seen at Michigan State and Iowa, it’s possible. The ‘Cats are 2-10 in all-time bowl appearances after last year’s blowout against Tennessee, but NU is overdue for a bowl win. It’s time for the Wildcats to end their season on a high note, and right now they have the offensive talent to make it happen.
Pittsburgh 24, Northwestern 17 – Tim Hackett
This game truly has the potential to be one of the better "lesser bowl" matchups, as both teams feature defenses that are capable of locking it down when needed and offenses that are capable of putting up points. I expect it to be fairly close and competitive throughout, but Pitt will just do enough to come out on top.
We all know that James Conner is an awesome and inspirational guy. I never get tired of hearing about him, but I’d like to limit the chat about him for just one day. That responsibility rests upon the large shoulders on NU’s defensive line.
Pitt leans heavily on its power run game to open the rest of its offense, so if CJ Robbins, Tyler Lancaster and Co. can limit the run, the rest of the defense should be able to slow Pitt's passing game. The D-Line has had some highs (see: under 60 rushing yards allowed to both Michigan State and Illinois) and some lows (see: over 200 rushing yards allowed to OSU and over 300 to Nebraska) this year. Which category will the Pinstripe Bowl fall under? The answer could determine the winner of this game.
Pittsburgh 42, Northwestern 33 – Andy Brown
I'm pretty much done trying to predict Northwestern football this year, because it's kind of a fool's errand. Luckily for me, I only have to do it one more time. It's easy to point to the handful of games this season when NU's offense has come alive as a reason why the 'Cats can hang with Pitt's high-flying offense. But it's equally easy to point to a handful of games that might suggest that NU doesn't have a prayer on that side of the ball, most recently its 12-point output at Minnesota. Mick McCall's offensive gameplans have varied so much from start to finish this year that NU has, at times, looked like an offense without an identity. So I can't hope to project what we'll see there.
What I can project is Pitt scoring a whole lot of points. NU's defense has played admirably at times this season, but is no stranger to allowing scoring in bunches, and the Panthers dropped a 43-spot on Clemson's 15th-ranked defense. Barring Pitt's offensive players simply not showing up to Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, these guys will score. If NU is able to strike a balance between its passing and rushing game (something it has often struggled to figure out), the 'Cats very well might keep up, and could win.
Here's how I see this going down, though: Pitt jumps out to a big lead (think 14-17 points) early, NU chips away and eventually cuts the deficit to one score or so late in the third quarter, but the Panthers let James Conner salt the game away in the fourth. I will probably be wrong, but based on the trajectory of this ridiculous season of NU football, this seems like the most likely outcome.