Well NBA fans, we thought with the NBA finals only a matter of hours away now, what better time to hear the Finals predictions of some of our team from Above The Rim (Adam Howes, Nick Dillon & Luke Wood) as well as special guests Nick Caro of NBA Nation Australia, Mark Bruty The Floor General himself as well as James McKern of @HoopsPodcast fame. Let’s get straight into it before Game 1 creeps up onto us!
We have seen both Manu Ginobli and Dwayne Wade destroy perceptions from last year that they were finished, just how important are these two players to their sides respectively, and what impact can the deep Spurs bench have against the big 3?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
They’ve both been revitalized this season, for sure. After two pretty underwhelming finals campaigns last season, both Ginobili and Wade have managed to shake off niggling injuries and age to prove that they are still just as important to their respective teams as they’ve ever been. Dwyane Wade has been giving us glimpses of his former self, spreading the floor, stretched defenses, getting to the rim and knocking down shots just as he was doing through the mid-2000′s. Manu, who was considered a good chance to take out the 6th Man of The Year award earlier in the season, has once again become a focal point of what the Spurs are trying to do in 2014. With Parker running the point, but needing sufficient rest to fend off injury, Manu’s role off the bench has become increasingly more vital in San Antonio’s offense and his effectiveness from three point land is imperative. The Spurs’ number one weapon against the Heat’s Big 3 is depth, and they have it in spades. If they can remain healthy, and the bench production is performing at the level it has all season, I believe the Heat are at a huge disadvantage.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
In a word, crucial. Both have turned the clocks back somewhat with their performances this season and gotten through the season relatively unscathed and here we are – `The Big Stage’. If either player suffers a calamity at this point, it spells certain trouble for their squad.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
I think both these guys have been managed throughout the season which shows you just how important they are. These aging but talented shooting guards are vital to the success of their respective teams and I think whoever performs at the highest level for the longest will ultimately win the championship. The Spurs are a very deep squad and they have shown that time and time again, the production from the bench can singlehandedly win them games. The Heat may have the better stars, but the Spurs have the better bench.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
Manu Ginobli for me is the barometer of the Spurs team, when he is up and firing they are as close to unstoppable as you can imagine. Personally I think he has the biggest point to prove in this series, as last year he was downright dreadful! Dwyane Wade has surprised me in these Playoffs and that is something I though would never happen because I’ve always known he steps up in key games. He has faded obviously since last year but he still plays a big part. Against these Spurs who love to clog the paint and not allow any drives his long 2 and even 3s become pivotal in this series The Spurs Bench aka The Foreign Legion is were the series will be won or lost for the Spurs. Best bench in the league and need to continue what they have done so far in these playoffs. Problems they cause for Miami is that there is no drop off in production when they check in, constant pressure!
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
Very, Manu is the go to guy in clutch moments because he is fearless and he thrives in the big moment, if he performs to the standards he has set so far these playoffs then not only is he going to be hard to stop but so are the Spurs. Dwayne Wade missed 28 regular season games and now we see why, his post season has been excellent to date, his jumpers are dropping, he is getting to the rim and the line consistently and seems injury free all while he is giving LeBron all the support that he desperately craves and he just looks so much healthier than this time last year which is great news for Miami fans.
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
Dwyane Wade’s ability to adapt his game to suit those elderly knees of his has been remarkable. For a 6’4” player, his ability in the post is superior to many of the big men in the league and he is currently putting up a career-best FG%. Despite all the focus being on LeBron for the Heat, Wade is just as important to any chances of them clinching the three-peat.
Much like the Spurs themselves, Manu Ginobili continues to fly under the radar but just gets the job done when it’s required of him. He had an average series agains the Blazers but killed it against the Thunder and proved how impoartant a cog he is in the Spurs machine.
As I’ll mention below, I believe the Spurs’ bench is the most important aspect of their Finals campaign. They have a depth that the Heat don’t and an ability to maintain constant pressure through rotations to force the errors.
What strengths do you see either team possessing that give them the edge over the other?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
As mentioned in question one, the Spurs possess depth which the Miami team can only dream of. Their starting 5 seems to change quite regularly depending on the current climate, but generally the production the Spurs get out of the bench unit is as good, and often better, than any other team in the NBA. Ginobili, Belinelli, Mills, Diaw, Bonner, Joseph… The list goes on, and this team gets great minutes out of every single one of them. The greatest thing about this bench, is that their coach trusts them in moments most wouldn’t. Popovich puts his faith in his backups in late game, high pressure situations when others simply wouldn’t. Because of this, they’ve been able to find a rhythm and the ability to effectively score at will, while holding opposition bench units to a total 32.5 points per game on average (even less in the playoffs). There’s a considerable edge here for San Antonio, and one that I believe will contribute to them stopping the Heat. The other is of course, stopping LeBron James. LeBron has been incredible so far these playoffs with 80% of his shots coming from within the restricted area, so if the Spurs can force LeBron into a midrange game, I think they’ll give themselves a huge advantage. Of course if he’s hitting his shots it’s much of a muchness, but if you can somehow force him out of his comfort zone you immediately give yourself an advantage.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
Strengths? Look no further than The Red Mamba. I dropped fifty, THAT’S RIGHT 50 POINTS with him on 2K a couple of weeks ago, so I’m taking that as a sign from the basketball gods.
Seriously though, I have to say the Spurs depth. Whether it’s Mills backing up Parker, Ginobli as the Sixth or Splitter/Diaw in the middle (depending on how Pop structures his rotation), they pose matchup problems for the Heat. And they have THE RED ROCKET!
As for Miami, well they of course have the LBJ-600, a programmable basketball assassin and key infiltration unit, a cybernetic offensive juggernaut also capable of decimating defenses.
And they have something else on their side – history.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
As I mentioned before, the Miami Heat have the best player in the game and 90% of the time, when a series is fairly evenly matched, the team that possesses the best player wins the series. The Heat have that advantage for sure. The Spurs have the edge in experience, depth and coaching – not to mention that they have home court advantage. They also have the failed attempt last year and a burning desire to rectify that. Miami, and LeBron specifically, wants the three-peat and this driving force could spell trouble for San Antonio.
In NBA Finals rematches, the team that won the first time wins the re-match over 70% of the time so this is a key factor in the series. The Spurs are older, they are more fragile and the Heat are more athletic and arguably healthier. The cloud hanging over Tony Parker sways the advantage to the Heat.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
As I said in my last answer, it all comes down to the Spurs bench for me. Through 18 games so far in the Playoffs they have averaged 42.6 points per game compared to the Heat bench of 26.5 points per game. That +16.1 advantage is the biggest advantage!
For the Heat as much as the Bench needs to step up its the production of one member of the Big 3 – Chris Bosh. After not knocking down a 3 ball last season in the Finals this is the time he needs to step up and if he gets it going that’ll be all she wrote for the Spurs.
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
The Spurs bench is pivotal, it’s deeper and consists of shooter after shooter it’s just a matter of getting these guys good open looks, Marco Bellinelli didn’t have a great series against the Pacers but can be a lights out shooter from deep, he needs to give Danny Green, Leonard, Ginobli and Patty Mills some help from outside.
Its cliche but it’s LeBron. how can you go past he best basketball player on this planet, he is the key to every game that the Heat play whether he is looking to facilitate, shoot or dominate. No team can keep him completely quiet but if they can minimise his trips to the line, minimise his fast break points and make him shoot from the outside then the Spurs might just be able to limit his impact. He is the key and will always be.
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
The Heat just have the ability to click into that extra gear when it’s required. We saw how the Pacers gained early leads but their inexperience allowed opposition teams back into the game, yet the Heat have that winning mindset where they never feel out of the game, regardless of the scoreline. Contrary to popular belief, I wouldn’t want the ball in the hands of any player other than Lebron James at the death.
As mentioned above, the depth of the Spurs’ bench is the best in the league. Every player from Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and co down to Aron Baynes understands their role and will get it done nine times out of 10. They are the epitome of a basketball TEAM.
Who’s your pick for Finals MVP?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
I got in trouble last night from my NBA Nation Oz/Hoops Podcast colleague Pumpa last night, but I’m picking Kawhi Leonard. Now I know it’s a little controversial but let me tell you why. He’s been a class above throughout the playoffs, and I honestly believe hes the future of this Spurs team. With Duncan, Parker and Ginobili all in their twilight years the spurs will be looking to re-tool, and with players like Leonard already well engrained in Popovich’s system, it should be easy. During the last two playoffs series he’s been involved in, Leonard has proved to be an X-Factor not only on the scoring side (averaging 13.5PPG in the playoffs), but his defense is where he really helps this Spurs team excel. (Tuesday he was selected in the NBA all defensive second team). His rebounding is also to be commended, averaging over 7 a game throughout series’ against some tough competition in Serge Ibaka, LeMarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki. While not as flashy, Leonard’s defensive prowess has become a staple in the Spurs’ overall success these past two seasons and that should continue throughout this year’s Finals series. If he’s able to continue scoring, and effectively shut out LeBron James, he should be a shoe in to take out the MVP award for this year’s finals.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
The obvious picks are LeBron and Duncan, with Parker if fully healthy rounding out the top three. I’m sticking with my dark horse pick in Manu Ginobli. If Parker hasn’t returned to full health, I’d expect to see the Argentinian log some serious minutes and I have a sneaking suspicion that he is out to make up for last year’s Playoff and Finals campaign.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
Tony Parker. If the Spurs are going to win it all and knock off the two time reigning champions, they are going to need a healthy Parker making an impact. For that reason, he is the most valuable player even before the Finals start. Tim Duncan would be a lovely choice and I think he has a big impact on the series but not more than the French point guard. Of course, if the Miami Heat win, there is only one guy who is taking home both trophies and that is LeBron. No-one is better and no-one is more valuable on the Heat roster no matter how you try to spin it.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
I really want to say Kawhi Leonard because I have such a man crush on the way that he plays the game of basketball, but I have to go with a man I’ve already talked about. Manu has a giant chip on his shoulder and a point to prove, he will euro step his way to the Finals MVP Trophy. MAAANNNNUUUUUU
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
If Miami win you can’t go past LeBron for reasons above! I would love Chris Bosh to stand up and be the star in a winning championship series but I just can’t go past LBJ.
On the Spurs side of things the two that jump to mind is Manu, who thrives on pressure and loves the chance to win games and the ultimate professional Tim Duncan who could quite possibly have won it last year if not for a rare errant hook shot and a piece of Ray Allen wizardry.
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
I’d have to go with LeBron. 27ppg @ 56% from the field, 7rpg, 5apg and 2spg. Other players have put in great performances here and there, but he has just been good on a consistent basis. Although the Finals can be a strange time in this league.
Will the Spurs aim to play Lebron the same way they did last finals, going under screens and daring him to shoot jumpshots, given it was Lebron’s jumpshots that iced game 7?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
Yep. As mentioned it’s one of the keys to beating them this year. LBJ has been a magician in the paint this season, and in the playoffs he’s been even better. His numbers in the restricted area replicate that of an elite center. If the Spurs can disrupt the Heat’s passing lanes, and force LeBron into midrange jumpers they’ll immediately have the upper hand. But as we all know LeBron has improved his outside game dramatically each year, so should those shots be falling, it’s really a matter of hoping you can score enough points to counteract it.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
I say yes. The defensive scheme worked well against him last year (keeping him to 44% from the field for the series) and on two occasions restricting him to under 40 percent. It’s really a lesser of two evils strategy and LeBron will be ready for it. You can’t underestimate Pop though, he may have devised some other trickery to throw at the former MVP.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
You still have to live with the jumper. Considering the guy basically shoots as close to perfection as possible in the paint and around the rim, the jump shot is a “safer” option. Considering how he has also worked on that and improved it, any way you go you are taking a huge risk – but you have to do it. If you force him to be a jump shooter, you can also limit his effectiveness as a playmaker which the Spurs would live with. Make someone else beat you would be my strategy.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
LeBron is way too good once he gets inside that this is the only way to play him. You give him jumpers all day long, chances are that he will probably catch fire in one game, maybe two. But that also means in the remaining games his percentages will dip and you’ll happily take that!
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
Yes, they will and should. You can never keep James completely quiet, you need to aim to limit his impact but don’t be naive and think you can shut him down. Let him beat you with jump shots, three pointers and assists, but limit his trips to the line, mi?imise his fastbreak points and the Spurs will be much better off. BUT easier said than done!
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
They have no choice but to. The option will have to be keeping him in that mid to long range spot but also quelling his ability to fire off the interior pass for the easy bucket. Far easier said than done, however, but Kahwi Leonard’s defensive ability is one of the best in the league in his position and it will be put to the test.
Which teams bench will have the biggest impact during the finals? Also which big name player can you see choke/go cold in the finals?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
I feel like I’m answering the questions too early! As above with this one. The Spurs bench will have a huge impact, and if they don’t, it’s series over in my book. Miami may not have the depth of San Antonio, but they do have guys who can light it up at a moments notice so really, if the Spurs want to win, they’ll need huge production out of guys like Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli and most of all Manu Ginobili. These guys are without a doubt the absolute x-factor in the Spurs’ ability overcome the Heat’s Big 3 throughout this finals series.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
Which Big name player can I see choking or experiencing a cold patch? Hmmm it’s too easy to pick on Chris Bosh, so I’d have to say Chalmers. Simply because I don’t like him as a player and I think he’s due for a Playoff gaffe. Can we have this guy on standby just in case of any unintentional comedic moments please? We didn’t get enough of him these Playoffs.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
The Spurs bench will likely have the bigger impact because they utilise it more and they are a deeper team. The Miami Heat have some key role players on the bench and they will be vital to keep the pressure on when Wade, Bosh and James rest but ultimately Ginobili, Diaw, Green, Belinelli, Splitter, Mills have them covered.
It’s the NBA Finals and both sides have been here before. I don’t see any of the big name stars going cold, but if anyone might it would likely be Wade or Bosh. Wade could falter depending on the health of his knees and if Bosh can’t work his way into an impacting role he tends to disappear. They younger guys from the Spurs are also a chance to go missing, but not the big name players.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
I am willing to bet with any man on this planet that the Spurs bench will do more damage than the Heats bench!
It’s so tough to predict a player choking or going cold but I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Chris Bosh will have a horrific shooting percentage in a critical game and continue to throw brick after brick (Westbrook style)
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
The Spurs, They run deep and are full of shooters who need looks. Ginobli is the A grader and Boris Diaw is the wild card, one of the most underrated post up players so far in this playoffs but can also step out and shoot the three especially from the corner, Bellinelli, Mills, Bonner are all 3 point specialists who are going to be crucial especially at home where they seem to thrive.
Chris Bosh can awfully cold and we might see that again against such a quality side, his tendency to shoot threes and deep jump shots might cost him the ability to be a real factor in this series, I personally hope he has a good series but he seems most likely to go cold in such a high pressure environment.
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
As mentioned before, the Spurs’. But not to write off the Heat’s bench either, Norris Cole is a very handy back-up PG and Rashard Lewis wound back the clock in the final two games against the Pacers to show that he’s not done just yet. But Ginobili, Belinelli, Mills and Diaw are a reasonable team in their own right.
I think the Spurs will be able to dampen Chris Bosh’s influence on the game. It’d be harsh to call it a choke because the Spurs are so great defensively, but the Heat will more than ever be reliant on James and Wade.
How will the new finals format and home court advantage affect the outcome of the NBA Finals?
Nick Caro (@NickoToGo)
It’s hard to say but I like it. I think having the Finals remain in the same format as the rest of the playoffs is not only fair, but also gives the team with home court a much bigger advantage, while also taking the pressure off the opposition to make the best of three straight games at home. But, this year we’ve seen that home court hasn’t necessarily meant a great deal with the majority of series’ ending 1-1 after the first two games so who knows. I also think it increases the possibility of a game 7 situation, which we’d all love to see.
Adam Howes (@Howsito)
The new format is huge for the Spurs. Not only do they get home cooking, but in the off chance they split the first two at home, they avoid elimination in three straight in Miami. Advantage Spurs.
Mark Bruty (@MarkBruty)
Going back to the “old” format favours the San Antonio Spurs. While travelling is never ideal, playing 3 games in a row at Miami could be devastating, especially if the Heat manage to grab one of the first two encounters. Reverting to the 2-2-1-1-1 format gives some advantage to the team with the best record and that is the Spurs. Playing at home is a huge advantage and we saw in the Western Conference Finals that the Spurs know how to hold sway in the Alamo. It is critical to Miami’s chances to grab one of those first two games. If they can’t and start the series in a 0-2 hole, it makes it extremely difficult to come back from.
So who wins it all? The San Antonio Spurs in 6. They know this is realistically their last chance at a title and they will want to grab it. Their adjustments have been very good so far this post season and they have just enough talent and just enough structure to squeeze past the Heat. It won’t be easy, but I feel this is the Spurs time. Three-peats are rare, and there is a reason for it. Credit to the Miami Heat for even getting to a fourth consecutive NBA Finals, but this one will fall the wrong way for them.
James McKern (@jLmcKern)
I’m so glad the format is the way it is, mainly because it will make it a lot more of an even spread. I do think though that home court advantage means more than ever with this style of format and seeing as though the Spurs hold that if it does go the distance then the 3-Peat could be in real trouble! (Go Spurs!!)
Nick Dillon (@ChickDill)
I like the new format and this should help the Spurs but only marginally, So far this post season the Spurs have been considerably better at home and the likes of Danny Green, Patty Mills and the other Shooter seem to thrive at home. We are at the stage where the two best sides are battling it out for the ultimate prize, realistically the coaches would be more worried about their match ups and getting their plays right rather than which venue they are at.
Luke Wood (@Luke_Woodsy)
I think both teams have the ability to rise above the challenge of playing on the road. Both teams had the same records at their respective homes during the regular season, however it was the Spurs that continued to get it done on the road (30-11 record). Whether this has any influence on the Finals, I’m not so sure. But, if anyone, I think it’ll be the Spurs who will break through for the road win.
We’d like to thank everyone for being involved and can’t wait for the next edition of Roundtable. Happy Finals Day!
Now get PUMPED for game 1!