by Justin Sweeney
750 the Game Staff Writer
Welcome to your 750 the Game NBA Jampacked Preview! Over the next few weeks as the NBA Season approaches, I will attempt to write way too many words breaking down the hopes and dreams of all 30 NBA teams while trying to predict their regular season finishes. We’ll travel the way of Lewis & Clark, heading east to west, finishing off with our compatriots in the Pacific. Heeding that route, we start off today with all five teams in the Atlantic Division. Popcorn popped and read on!
Boston Celtics
Last year (40-42, 7th seed. Lost to Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 in first round of playoffs)
Key Additions: Terry Rozier, RJ Hunter, Jordan Mickey, Marcus Thornton (all drafted), David Lee (trade with Golden State), Amir Johnson (Free Agent signing from Detroit)
Key Losses: Brandon Bass (FA to Lakers), Phil Pressey (FA to Blazers), Luigi Datome (Europe), Gerald Wallace (traded for Lee)
From my point of the view the Boston Celtics are one of the toughest teams in the league to forecast. The only thing you can pinpoint for certain is they’ll secure one of the eight playoff spots in the East.
The foundation of the Celtics is promising – they’re coming off a 7th seed finish in the East that culminated in a competitive sweep to the eastern conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers. Peering at the Celtics roster, you’ll find a swath of youth across the list that extends to their head coach, Brad Stevens, the babyfaced 38-year old entering his third year in the NBA.
The Celtics made alterations to their roster prior to February’s trade deadline, bringing aboard the 5-foot-9 Isaiah Thomas from Phoenix two months after casting off their final link to the 2008 Celtics championship squad, point guard Rajon Rondo. That sprung open opportunities for lottery pick Marcus Smart and Thomas, who spearheaded the Celtics to one of the hottest regular season finishes of any team in the league. The Celtics went 20-11 following the all-star break and have tantalized Boston fans with a future pointing to a next level jump in the east.
There could be a few factors holding back Boston from making the leap to upper-tier team in the east. The roster is full of solid players and nice pieces. Take any one of the 12 players from the Celtics and put them on your favorite team’s roster and you would view them as a “guy who instantly helps your team.” But what they lack is a couple of superstars, top-20 players which would make them a legitimate threat to become an annual east power as they were during the days of Allen, Garnett and Pierce.
The Celtics hoped to address that problem during the draft, but after making the playoffs in a weakened eastern conference, they were stuck with a mid-first round pick and were unsuccessful in trading up to find a potential foundational star.
Instead, Boston went to the old tried-and-true strategy general manager Danny Ainge has employed the past few years of asset accumulation and grabbed more good pieces!
In the draft Boston came away with guards Terry Rozier and RJ Hunter, along with the intriguing, yet raw wing in Jordan Mickey from Louisiana State. Those three rookies add depth to a roster seemingly full of it yet still lack that top-level performer. Ainge tried addressing that need by trading away salary cap monster Gerald Wallace for the relatively unused forward David Lee from the world champion Golden State Warriors.
Meanwhile the Celtics also signed Amir Johnson, a burly power forward who spent his entire career with the Toronto Raptors. While one of the more unsung players in the NBA, Johnson is regarded as an efficient player who improves a team with his presence on the floor. Johnson shot a sharp 57 percent from the field last season and sported a Player Efficiency rating of 15.4, further indicating he’ll be an impactful addition to the Celtics. With the team-oriented Johnson alongside David Lee, the Celtics instantly improved their frontcourt while adding some veteran guidance to a promising ship in search of a captain.
THE KEY QUESTIONS
1) Will David Lee arrive rejuvenated and take Boston to the next level?
Lee was the key piece of the Warriors’ nucleus when he arrived to Golden State in 2010 but his role grew more tertiary as the years went by. Once Draymond Green asserted himself as a premiere stretch four that fit the Warriors’ two-way scheme better, it made the high-scoring Lee expendable. Now, back on the east coast, the 32-year old Lee comes to the Celtics one year removed from averaging better than 18 points per game.
If Lee can stay healthy and tap into the scoring proclivities that helped Golden State ascend in the Western Conference, he’ll instantly become one of Boston’s best players while transforming the Celtics into a multi-dimensional team with an everyday scoring option. If Lee can’t stay healthy or recedes into a role player, he’ll still add an element of improvement to the Celtics but more will be needed from Amir Johnson and Marcus Smart, and the Celtics will have to rely more heavily on defense to carry them to wins.
2) Will Marcus Smart move above into the next tier of NBA point guards?
Smart was one of the few bright spots in an injury-ridden 2014 draft class, quickly attaining the starting spot for the Celtics by midseason following the Rondo trade. He made a quick transition from college to the pros, proving to be a fearsome lockdown defender while tallying 7.1 points a contest in 67 games.
Entering the 2015-2016 season, Smart is all of a sudden one of the best looking point guards in the eastern conference. Like many of his young teammates, Smart must take his game to the next level in order for the Celtics to hit the upper-tier of the east. Smart averaged 3.1 assists a game last year against 1.3 turnovers per game, and he must facilitate even better and carefully for his teammates this season. His defense makes him a valid starter in this league. If his offense follows, the sky is the limit for the Celtics.
Gritty, tough and smart, mirroring the fabric of their city, the Celtics enter the 2015-2016 season with promising momentum and a youthful roster. While the lack of a true star presence limits this team’s ceiling from becoming a championship contender in the East, this team should figure to have a “sum greater than its parts” makeup and provide endless quality lineups regardless of who’s on the floor. With depth across the board and Lee providing a nightly scoring punch, it should be fascinating to see where Smart drives this team this year. Given the wealth of talent, it should be enough to catapult the Celtics towards the top of the Atlantic Division.
Predicted finish: 48-34, Atlantic Division Champions, 5th place in eastern conference.
Brooklyn Nets
Last Year (38-44, 8th seed. Lost to Atlanta Hawks 4-2 in first round of playoffs)
Key Additions: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (draft day trade with Portland), Andrea Bargnani (Free Agency from Knicks), Quincy Miller, Thomas Robinson, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, Dahntay Jones
Key Losses: Deron Williams (buyout), Mason Plumlee (traded to Portland), Alan Anderson, Mirza Teletovic, Cory Jefferson
THE ONLY AWARD THEY’LL WIN IN 2016
Congratulations to the Brooklyn Nets for winning the “Most nondescript team in 2015-16” award! This is a tough team to get up for watching. Only a few years ago the Nets had the highest payroll in the league with a team full of superstars in name and talented veterans pursuing one last championship ring. The investment failed mightily and today’s remnants of that roster find the Nets as a team in transition and one without an identity. The Deron Williams project ended as a failure: over $100 million later, the former all-star point guard was rushed out of town with an eight figure buyout and sullen memories of dreams unfulfilled.
In Williams’ wake remains his backcourt mate, Joe Johnson who in his time in Brooklyn has regressed from being an all-NBA shooting guard to an overpaid, aging role player. Johnson can still put up 20 points on any given night, but those nights are becoming more select and unpredictable. He’s joined in the backcourt by another old fogey, Jarrett Jack. It feels almost improbable that Jack is two seasons removed from being the best backup point guard in the league for an upstart Warriors team but with Williams gone, Jack will have to perform like a starter.
Jack actually provided Brooklyn with more quality minutes than Williams over the full span of the season but it was still with the designation of him as a backup point guard. Performing as the full-time starter has never been Jack’s strong point- no team on which Jack has started over the season’s worth of games has finished with a winning record.
LOPEZ AND….
Brooklyn made a few good moves but none of them will significantly move the needle in a positive direction. They took the safe and sound approach to re-signing their franchise player, Brook Lopez to a long term deal which was really smart. Lopez is a winning player who can fill the stat sheet but he’s just a piece of a championship nucleus and his corresponding pieces are nowhere to be found on this roster.
The Nets also re-inked Thaddeus Young who came over from Minnesota at last season’s trade deadline, but Young seems better suited as a complementary player than part of a 1-2 punch as part of an upper echelon playoff team. Young languished with the perpetually rebuilding 76ers and coupled with a ho-hum half year stint in Minnesota, is still looking for a winning situation to reignite his career. Brooklyn won’t be the place to find that.
GOING BACKWARD, NOT FORWARD
Two names that might not make big waves nationally that should impact the Nets with their absences are Mason Plumlee and Mirza Teletovic, who moved on to Portland and Phoenix respectively. Their exits take a big bite out of a Brooklyn frontcourt that all of a sudden becomes very thin with their best stretch man and interior defender heading west.
Brooklyn addressed that void by adding Thomas Robinson and Andrea Bargnani, two one-dimensional players whose areas of expertise are slightly better than ok, while being dismal in every other aspect of their games. Bargnani is arguably the worst defensive forward in the league that commands significant minutes and when he does decide he loves the game of basketball, he can’t stay healthy. It’s tough to argue at this point in his career that the addition of the former number one overall pick will lead to an increase in wins for Brooklyn.
After gazing past the marquee names of Johnson, Young and Lopez, this Nets roster is an island of misfit toys. The franchise is swimming in a transition of philosophy, one that realizes it cannot win a title simply by spending $150 million per year but on the surface has no clear cut plan for mining or developing young and emerging talent. The result of that indecisive strategy is a roster with some former high-scorers, one-dimensional rebounders, veterans looking for final paydays, and journeymen hoping that Brooklyn is the oasis they’ve been searching for. And Brook Lopez. The Brooklyn Nets might not be a sinking ship, but worse, a rudderless ship heading in no direction other than the one the winds blow them towards this season.
Predicted finish: 23-59, 14th place in eastern conference
Philadelphia 76ers
Last Year: 18-64, 14th place in East
Key Additions: Jahlil Okafor (#3 pick in draft), Nik Stauskas (trade with Kings), Kendall Marshall (free agency)
Key Losses: three years of your life waiting for this team to make something of itself.
It’s hard to admit this, but the Philadelphia 76ers were actually one of the most shocking teams in the NBA last year in terms of achievement versus expectations. The caveat is that expectations were so historically low that any string of wins cleared those.
Still, Philly gave multiple championship contenders scares during the season, and more nights than not managed to look like they weren’t the worst team in the league. By the end of the season, they proved that was the case as they finished ahead of the hapless Knicks and Timberwolves. It was a tip of the cap to head coach Brett Brown who has for two years squeezed wins out of an intentionally limited roster.
FRONTCOURT OF THE FUTURE?
As they enter the third year of a blatant burn-and-rebuild blueprint, the Sixers remain in the first stage of their construction project. Philly has had five lottery picks in the past three summers and from that influx have produced just two of them on the floor: 2013 lottery acquisition Nerlens Noel and incoming rookie Jahlil Okafor.
Noel displayed a strong rookie year for the Sixers after missing 2013-2014 to finish rehabilitating a torn ACL sustained in his lone college season at Kentucky. While Noel appears to have a future as a strong interior defender, his offense remains a question mark, fueling doubts he’s suited to be a franchise cornerstone.
Okafor, on the other hand, is an impressive asset that carries potential unlike any player on this roster seen in at least three years. The former Duke center is coming off a national championship freshman campaign that saw him average better than 16 points and 9 rebounds a game while shooting 65 percent from the field. The 19-year old is a promising piece that the Sixers can use as a building block.
But mirroring Noel, there are questions about Okafor’s interior defense that plagued him at Duke. While Okafor is the one dependable piece on this team that can put up 15-20 points a night for starters, he’s a long way off from being a two-way player. The good news is the Sixers are a long way off from being a good team, and Okafor’s timeline for development should be gradual.
A BACKCOURT ONLY BEN FRANKLIN COULD LOVE
While the Sixers made a big splash with the #3 overall draft selection of Okafor, countless questions surround their backcourt. As general manager Sam Hinkie gutted this roster in hopes of reaching the basement to gain lottery picks, the backcourt has remained largely unchanged in terms of talent level. Conceivably the Sixers plan to start Isaiah Canaan at point guard, who finished the year in the team’s rotation. The former Murray State guard was a nice piece as a role player, but it remains unseen if the Sixers roll with him for the full year in a starting position.
One player who will give Murray a run for playing time and perhaps the starting job at point guard is free agent acquisition Kendall Marshall. The young journeyman made a nifty impact in his first two years in the league with the Lakers but Los Angeles elected not to retain him. Marshall moved ahead to Milwaukee where he posted metric-friendly numbers before tearing his ACL 23 games into his third season. Marshall might not be fresh right off the start for Philadelphia, but given their endless strategy to tank until further notice, the Sixers probably won’t mind.
Out of a busy summer where money flew around like a scene in a wall street movie, the Sixers made one of the more shrewd moves, acquiring second year guard Nik Stauskas in a trade with the Sacramento Kings. Stauskas had trouble finding consistent minutes in a drama-laden Kings team that switched coaches twice during the season, but when he did receiving playing time he showed off his shooting ability and potential to score in bunches.
The questionable move for Sacramento (who gave up on the 2014 #8 draft pick after just one year to clear salary cap space to sign Wesley Matthews, who’s only seven months removed from a serious achilles tendon injury, who anyway signed with Dallas instead days later) looks like a low-risk purchase for Philadelphia. The Sixers also received Carl Landry and Jason Thompson in the trade (Philly quickly turned around Thompson to Golden State for cash and draft considerations) with Stauskas as the jewel of the trade. Landry has been a useful role player everywhere he has played and is a strong rebounder and underrated forward who makes life difficult for opponents.
Given his potential and production thus far, Stauskas could instantly impact the Sixers positively at the shooting guard spot. Stauskas could immediately provide a constant presence at a position that last year had NBA viewers constantly participating in the “who he play for” game trying to guess who was out on the floor.
This backcourt still isn’t anything yet to write home to Mom about, but between Stauskas, Canaan, Marshall and Tony Wroten, this Sixers backcourt should be more talented than it was in 2015. Again, not a huge bar to clear!
SOBERING REALITY
This is a Sixers team that has the potential to be good someday and even win games this season. But heading into their third year of mediocrity, there still isn’t any light at the end of the tunnel to suggest they could eventually be great. Excuse me while I go into coach speak quickly but if you throw out the first 17 and last 10 games of the Sixers’ season (all losses), they went 18-37, which while terrible, is still a better clip than other teams in the league.
While the expectation that the Sixers would throw away a couple seasons was no secret, there was also an assumption that this roster would have a more promising collection of active talent by now. Outside of Okafor and possibly Stauskas, that hasn’t been the case. This Philadelphia team still looks like a fluid collection of assets that might be halfway cleared again by the time February rolls around. While Brett Brown will coach this team up as well as he can and provoke them to wins they wouldn’t normally win, it’s still a roster in disarray and one that looks ultimately temporary until further notice.
As long as the goal here is to collect assets and hope for another winning ticket in the draft lottery, this team is artificially built to finish towards the bottom of the league. With Okafor on board, this team will provide more inspiration than the last two years but it’s safe to say everyone watching this team has another sub-.500 finish in store. And at this point, that’s probably how the Sixers management would like it.
Predicted finish: 22-60, Last place in eastern conference
New York Knicks
Last Year: 17-65, 15th place in East
Key Additions: Kristaps Porzingis, Jerian Grant (both drafted), Arron Afflalo, Robin Lopez, Derrick Williams, Kyle O’Quinn, Kevin Seraphin, Sasha Vujacic, Thanasis Antetounkoumpo (free agency)
“Key” Losses: Tim Hardaway Jr. (draft day trade with Hawks), Alexey Shved (Europe), Andrea Bargnani (Free agency), Samuel Dalembert (Free agency), Quincy Acy (Free agency), Jason Smith
Year One of the Laker front office-transplant era was an abject disaster: with Phil Jackson manning the roster movement and Derek Fisher treading the sidelines, the Knicks crawled to a league-second worst 17 wins. The Knicks put forth a putrid product onto the newly remodeled Madison Square Garden arena floor. Their star forward, Carmelo Anthony was beset by a series of knee injuries and shut down after 40 games to undergo knee surgery. It might have been the highlight of a season that was quickly deemed a throwaway by upper management and quickly transitioned into an outlook towards the future.
While the opening stanza of the Knicks’ future plans were a joke to viewers, Jackson’s tenure has shed light on a lingering necessity on this dormant franchise: it’s time for the Knicks to rebuild and to do so with full commitment.
There’s a phenomenal yet poignant quote from the television show Parks and Recreation’s Ron Swanson, a no-nonsense pragmatist who doesn’t suffer fools gladly that applies to New York’s rebuilding strategy: “Never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing.”
To be blunt, the New York Knickerbockers have been half-assing two things for over a decade. They’ve aimed to furnish a seemingly competitive roster that can make the playoffs while looking towards the future. The end result has seen the Knicks make the playoffs just four times since 2001 while creating an annually overloaded cap with often sorry rosters. Jackson has coasted into the office of his former employers and at least executed the hints of a blueprint that point to building from the ground up.
After the drudge that was the 2015 season, Jackson made two key moves through the NBA Draft, landing europroject Kristaps Porzingis, a 7-foot-2 mold of potential and athletic wealth, and Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant, one of the better college guards to come out of the draft this year. While they were footprints upon the mandate that New York must employ to be a championship contender down the road, they also signal the changing of a guard in the Big Apple, one that hints at not only competency in the Knicks organization, but a real, believable plan.
TRIMMING THE FAT
On top of two stellar draft picks, the Knicks cast off a collection of players that were clogging up the roster with below-par performances. Gone are middling players like Andrea Bargnani and Samuel Dalembert up front, and in their place have come younger talent like Robin Lopez and Derrick Williams. Iman Shumpert and JR Smith played uninspired ball at the shooting guard position last season prior to their trade deadline migrations to Cleveland. In their place to start the year are Arron Afflalo, a journeyman guard who still possesses plenty of two-way firepower and Grant, who can be a versatile wingman at both guard positions.
The Knicks’ frontcourt will look almost completely new compared to last season when it takes the floor. Lopez and Porzingis figure to occupy the starting frontcourt positions, if not Carmelo Anthony at the four if the Knicks utilize a smallball lineup. They’ll be joined by Kyle O’Quinn off the bench, one of the more unheralded players in the league who contributed efficient production to the Orlando Magic the last three years. Tack on big man Kevin Seraphin who was a dependable big for the Washington Wizards and all of a sudden the Knicks have a decently cohesive frontcourt.
The Knicks may have not made the sexy splash some were anticipating this summer with a plethora of big name free agents available, but they have made upgrades across the board. An instantly improved frontcourt should vault the Knicks to being competitive in the eastern conference on most nights.
WHAT’S THE PLAN?
While Phil Jackson had a cumulatively transactional summer that deserves mostly postive comments, it still points to a roster whose identity isn’t yet fully known. There are some juicy young pieces like Porzingis who threatens to do it all, and Grant who can score in bunches. But the roster is also chock full of veterans and players who are making New York the third or fifth destinations of their careers.
Collating all these new pieces together will be a challenging task for Derek Fisher, who enters his second year as an NBA head coach and still must prove to pundits that he is capable of coaching a winning team.
Ultimately, the Knicks must determine if they’re good enough to contend for respect and playoff success in the east right now or play the long game for future excellence. If they elect for the latter, it remains to be seen how much of this organization’s gameplan revolves around Anthony. The former Syracuse guard remains a volume scorer who demands a wealth of touches every night.
Anthony has publicly displayed a willingness to involve all players old and young in his quest for a championship ring but if the Knicks hover around the .500 mark, will he change his tune and start chucking the ball?
If the Knicks are crafting a team for the future, it’s clear where the ball must go: to players like Porzingis, Grant, and whomever else might come along. Once that reality becomes clear, the task again falls upon Fisher to ensure all parties remain happy. It’s a job easier said than done.
FORECAST
Simply by free agent acquisitions, the Knicks are already vastly improved from last season. They’ll also offer compelling reasons to watch their team on a nightly basis. Porzingis enters his rookie season as one of the most enticing rookie prospects in the league, and while expectations for his development are fairly tempered, his ceiling may be off the charts.
While youth is a firm part of this roster, so is the influx of veteran players. The indication is that the Knicks, like in their past, wish to be competitive immediately. Therefore, the questions that arose in the aughts decade will surface once more: Are the Knicks playing for 2015, or can they also develop a roster that will win in years to come? Perhaps only Phil Jackson knows the answer to that.
Predicted finish: 34-48, 12th place in eastern conference.
Toronto Raptors
Last year: 49-33, 4th place in eastern conference. Lost to Washington Wizards 4-0 in first round of playoffs.
Key Additions: Demarre Carroll (Free agency, Hawks) Bismack Biyombo (Free agency, Hornets), Cory Joseph (Free agency, Spurs), Luis Scola (Free agency, Pacers), Anthony Bennett (Free agency, Timberwolves), Delon Wright (draft)
Key Losses: Amir Johnson (Celtics), Tyler Hansbrough (Hornets), Louis Williams (Lakers)
Following years of mediocrity, the neighbors to the north began the 2015 NBA Season with fire and momentum seldom seen before, emerging as one of the likely NBA powers by the end of December with a record of 24-7. The Raptors looked like an offensive juggernaut, a three dimensional team that could beat any team in either conference in a manner of ways.
But two months does not a season make and the Raptors fell back towards the pack as the year went along. Following their rapid start, Toronto went just 25-26 the rest of the way in the regular season, including a deep freeze after the all-star break, losing nine of ten games.
The season ended anticlimactically, a four game sweep at the hands of the emerging Washington Wizards in the first round. After a promising start, the year was eventually another same old Raptors campaign: a deceptively awesome regular season finished by an empty singular playoff run. While their cadre of guards composed one of the best set of wings in the league, there was not enough firepower for the Raptors to sustain a successful playoff run.
Outside of signing small forward Demarre Carroll to a monster four-year contract for $60 million, it was a relatively quiet summer for the Raptors. Starting four Amir Johnson defected to the Celtics and sixth man of the year Louis Williams left for the Los Angeles Lakers. While a couple of key pieces have shifted away from and towards Toronto, this nucleus remains largely unchanged from last season.
While the main pieces of last year’s lineup were good enough to capture the Atlantic Division, there’s uncertainty if the Raptors can make the leap with the roster as currently constructed. But in the eastern conference, anything is possible, at least until you run into Lebron James and the Cavaliers. The Raptors possess some interesting building blocks, but the big unknown is how it stacks up against the rest of the neighborhood in 2015-16.
CAN LOWRY LEAD THE RAPTORS TO THE PROMISED LAND?
As was the case the last few seasons, the spotlight with this team begins in its starting backcourt. Point guard Kyle Lowry is coming off his best year in the NBA, punctuated by an all-star appearance while serving as the heart and conscience of the team. Once a role player that bounced around the NBA, Lowry stepped up and turned into a versatile and primary option for the Raptors, someone who could put up 25 points a night, and lead his team in assists. Midway through the season when the Raptors were peaking, he was one of the most feared sharpshooters in the league and fueled the killer instinct of the Raptors.
But mirroring the tenor of the team, Lowry faded as the Raptors sputtered to a .500 finish over the final three months of the regular season. Lowry missed nine of his team’s final 14 regular season games, giving way to discussion that the wear and tear of the year had caught up with him. The fact that he shot just 31 percent in their first round sweep to Washington didn’t help matters.
Entering this year, the normally running back-shaped Lowry looks more sleek and svelte than ever. While the loss of some minor power is a possibility with his weight shift, the increased durability should serve him well during the dog days of the regular season when the Raptors need every win they can in order to attain a 50-win season.
Another question to ponder is with Lowry, the odds-on alpha dog and go-to-guy for Toronto, is if he in his prime good enough to take Toronto into the second round and beyond? The NBA is filled with excellence at the point guard position, but seldom beyond freaks of nature like Stephen Curry (who, while serving as the Warriors’ main ballhandler isn’t necessarily a pure point guard) does a team whose best player is a point guard win a title.
Lowry has proven he’s a premiere point guard in the NBA but it might be time to admit he could use some help.
ARE THEY KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES?
While Demarre Carroll should add toughness, defense, rebounding, and an ever-improving three point shot to the mix, the loss of Amir Johnson could be an issue. One of the more unsung players in the league, the Raptors will have to replace some efficient possessions that Johnson provided. Patrick Patterson figures to grab his minutes along with James Johnson, who each showed some nice moments along the way last year for Toronto.
The Raptors made an interesting pick up during the offseason, signing big man Luis Scola on the cheap to add offensive relief and second unit depth. Scola has impacted every team he has been a part of, but still is looking for that deep playoff run. He joined the Pacers two years ago at a time when Indiana appeared to be the next great team in the east, but their hopes fell short. Now in the twilight of his career, Scola could add a punch to a Toronto team that has been a constant state of needing more help at the forward positions since Chris Bosh’s exit in 2010. Between Johnson, Scola, Patterson, the purely defensive Bismack Biymobo, and young reclamation project Anthony Bennett, this frontcourt is full of pieces but not necessarily a difference-making player to balance the backcourt depth of Lowry and Demar Derozan. That is, except for one X-factor: Jonas Valanciunas. Which brings us to our next topic.
IS JONAS VALANCIUNAS ELITE?
Sorry, I couldn’t make it through this entire preview without taking a page from our NFL friends using an overdone interrogative. But fortunately this overtoasted cliche applies to the starting center for the Raptors, Jonas Valanciunas. The fifth pick of a relatively thin 2011 NBA Draft, Valanciunas has shown potential to be one of the better big men in the league and especially in the east. The seven-footer is a neat defender at times, and an efficient finisher in the middle, and a useful rebounder. But during big boy time in numerous fourth quarters, Valanciunas was seatward, watching the proceedings from the bench on a nearly nightly basis. There was much debate about reasons he couldn’t finish games, but the bottom line was he wasn’t a key option down the stretch.
This summer the stakes have been raised for the Lithuanian center. Toronto made a huge investment in Jonas, signing him to a $64 million extension. You would think an organization who throws that much money at one guy would want to utilize him on a full-time basis. For the last two seasons, Valanciunas has been a 12 and 9 guy, which is promising for a youngster, but not emblematic of a franchise center unless he’s amazing defensively. So far, Valanciunas is here and there on the defensive end but there is still time for him to develop. While Toronto has had a patient timetable for Valanciunas up to this point, they need him to make the next step in order for this team to be a realistic contender in the east.
FINALLY
This is a nice team. But I don’t know if I can use a deeper adjective than “nice” to describe what Toronto will be in 2015-16. Toronto has some laudable talent at point guard and center, and Demar Derozan is a talent that cannot be discounted. However, Derozan’s efficiency remains a question and many think he’s already hit his ceiling. While the league is shifting to a smallball-oriented set of lineups overall that would allow Toronto to employ a ton of wings where they’re most talented, I’m still not sure if they have enough.
As a Demarre Carroll fan, I think his addition is a nice (there’s that word again) pickup for Toronto and he’ll only provide more easy baskets that this team can use. His presence is going to give visiting scoring machines unpleasant stays during their international treks. But while the Raptors got a guy like Carroll, other teams upgraded with multiple stars. Milwaukee gets Jabari Parker back presumably for a full season and another frontcourt stud in Greg Monroe. Washington will stay ahead of Toronto simply because their two best players have higher ceilings than any player on Toronto. Miami has recharged with the return of Chris Bosh and the addition of Justise Winslow, and Hassan Whiteside will have a full season to show his stuff.
While Toronto has chosen to mostly stay the course, many of their conference rivals have made visible strides to fight for footing in the east. The Raptors will remain competitive this season, but my feeling is they will see other teams below them from last year pass them by in the next six months.
Predicted finish: 43-39, 8th place in the eastern conference.
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