(photo credit Oregonlive.com)
by Justin Sweeney
750 the Game Staff Writer
The NBA season is underway but our forecasts are still coming off the conveyor belt. To do our due diligence and ensure we’re not tabbing our season predictions on the coattails of early season signs, we’ll list our season predictions right here and then tell you in pending pieces how I arrived at those numbers. Posted below are my predicted season standings in their entirety and without revision!
Western Conference Regular Season Standings
Golden State 62-20
Oklahoma City 59-23
Houston 56-26
San Antonio 54-28
LA Clippers 53-29
Memphis 51-31
New Orleans 46-36
Utah 45-37
Sacramento 37-45
Phoenix 35-47
Portland 29-53
Dallas 28-54
Minnesota 24-58
Denver 22-60
LA Lakers 21-61
Eastern Conference Regular Season Standings
Cleveland 59-23
Chicago 51-31
Washington 50-32
Atlanta 49-33
Boston 48-34
Miami 47-35
Milwaukee 46-36
Toronto 43-39
Detroit 38-44
Orlando 37-45
Indiana 36-46
New York 34-48
Charlotte 25-57
Brooklyn 23-59
Philadelphia 22-60
Western Conference Finals
Golden State over Oklahoma City, 4-3
Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland over Washington, 4-1
NBA Finals
Cleveland over Golden State, 4-2
Regular Season MVP: Kevin Durant
Finals MVP: LeBron James
I don’t have to spend much time telling you why this particular Jampacked NBA forecast is going to be fun to dive into because this division includes LeBron. And Paul George. And a Bulls team with a brand new Head Coach whose outcome no one can really accurately pinpoint. And a Milwaukee team that could be the most fun in the league to watch, or a daedalian team that isn’t ready for prime time. And Stan Van Gundy up in Motown! Who doesn’t love an NBA season with plenty of Stan Van Gundy?! He’s baking a special treat up in Detroit for everyone to enjoy but we don’t yet know if it’s going to be a delicious apple pie or a fruitcake nobody wants.
In an Eastern Conference with a collection of hopefuls and teams who might be deluding themselves into thinking they could make the playoffs, this division contains five teams that could throw their hats into the playoff ring. The Cavaliers seemingly already have the entire conference sewn up but their roster is full of highly paid stars learning to play with one another. The Bulls could finish anywhere from second place in the conference to being on the fringes of a postseason berth. The other three teams in this division have fractured communities of smart people who think any combination of them could make or miss the playoffs.
Welcome to the Central Division, where anything is possible and the talent is certainly plentiful!
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Year: 53-29, 2nd in Eastern Conference, 1st in Central Division
Key Additions: Richard Jefferson (Free agent, Dallas), Mo Williams (Free agent, Charlotte), Sasha Kaun (Free agent, euroleague).
Key Losses: Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller (trade with Portland), Shawn Marion (retired), Kendrick Perkins (Free agent, New Orleans).
It’s almost as if the Cavaliers just hit the pause button on their season in May and are pressing the play button this week. Besides a couple of old reserves, this team returns for the 2015-2016 NBA season largely unchanged and ready to pick up from where they left off. LeBron James, after taking it easy in the preseason and receiving a cortisone shot for his back, has shaken off the rust of a return to Cleveland and literally looks at home.
Whether it was to take the pressure off himself or evaluate his impending situation with objective eyes, LeBron let everyone know last summer in his SI love letter that returning to Cleveland would not be a “mix-and-microwave” recipe for an instant championship. While he ended up being technically correct, the Cavaliers quickly asserted their winning ways despite the lack of chemistry that didn’t materialize until around March. That factor alone shows how powerful the Cavaliers were last year and could prove to be in coming seasons.
This season marks the first chance for Kyrie Irving, James, Kevin Love, Timofey Mosgov, Iman Shumpert, and Tristan Thompson to spend real time on the floor together. But already a wrench has been thrown into those plans as Irving still recovers from a serious foot injury suffered in Game 1 of last June’s Finals. One report earlier this year slated Irving not returning until January, while other rumors have portended his return in November. Either way, Cleveland will be without an all-star caliber guard in their lineup for a good chunk of time to start the season.
BLATT’S CHOICE
Immediately the Cavaliers start their season juggling around their pieces to find a lineup that works. Fortunately when you have the best player in the world on your roster, that task is less cumbersome. The more challenging aspect of Head Coach David Blatt figuring out his lineup combinations should pertain to the frontcourt, where Love is back healthy and ready to make plays.
Love enters a lineup where center Timofey Mosgov and multipositional big Tristan Thompson both figure to command significant minutes. Each filled in admirably after Love was knocked out of their playoff run in the first round, and Thompson in particular showed off tremendous rebounding ability, completing his journey to defensive stalwart in the Finals.
Thompson proved during his Finals run that he not only is a fine complement to James and has a unique skill set, but made his case for more minutes this upcoming season. Mosgov proved to be a missing ingredient for the Cavaliers in 2015. Upon Mosgov’s arrival to Cleveland, the Cavaliers were two games above .500, then went 34-12 the rest of the regular season. Mosgov makes the Cavaliers three-dimensional, providing an interior security blanket James hasn’t seen since the days of Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
Love, meanwhile, is a three-time all-star and magical passer whose talent can’t be denied. His first year in Cleveland was a busy one, filled with rumors of friction between him and James, multiple games where he spent fourth quarters on the bench, and constant chatter about his contract extension. Talk of the future was finally put to rest when he signed a five-year extension this summer, allowing him to finally concentrate on life in Cleveland for the long haul.
Another tough decision Blatt will have to make is integrating Love into this lineup both in the fourth quarter as well within the overall flow of the game. At times last season, the Cavaliers were better when Love was off the floor. In the long run, his long-range shooting, passing, and rebounding makes him too good of a talent to bench for stretches.
All three primary big men on this team present unique attributes that presents a luxurious problem for Blatt. Love and Thompson together make the Cavs a better running team, and Mosgov and Thompson form a defensive front that’s close to one of the best in the league. You can expect Blatt will adjust his frontcourt combinations based on his opposition’s lineups but divvying up the minutes between these three is about as good of an NBA first world problem a coach can have.
TREADING WATER AND STAYING INSPIRED
The Cavaliers’ playoff run and subsequent loss in the Finals is one of the most bizarre, if not inspiring performances I have ever seen by a Finals’ runner-up. The impact of having the best player in the league was blatantly illustrated during the Eastern Conference Semifinals when Cleveland swept an Atlanta team with Lebron and two games’ worth of Kyrie Irving.
The Finals were a shock to some who expected a fully stacked Golden State team to roll over a depleted Cavaliers roster that had to rely on Matthew Dellavedova for extended minutes at point guard. Instead, the Cavaliers offered five and a half games of major resistance to the eventual world champions with Lebron and a roster arguably more thin than his supporting cast from his final year in Miami.
The result left most viewers with two conclusions: the Warriors, no matter who Cleveland had, were the best team in the league in 2015. The other was Cleveland was just getting started and with a full returning roster, would be even better than they were in 2014.
The majority opinion entering this season is that the Eastern Conference one seed has become the Cavaliers’ birthright and barring major injury to multiple top-four players on their roster, should be right back in the Finals next June. It’s an eventuality that makes many on the outside wonder what, if anything, does Cleveland have to play for between now and then?
One of the largest obstacles to the Cavaliers this season will be the calendar. In its pages from November to June are dog days, fatiguing hurdles, and stretches without some of their best players (Kyrie right now, LeBron intermittently to give himself necessary rest). Some might say Cleveland’s biggest issue last season was health problems at inopportune times. The Cavaliers had to forge through the most important part of their season without Kevin Love and had to survive basically the entire Finals without Kyrie Irving.
This season, on the other hand, is necessary from a standpoint of establishing continuity. Mozgov, Love, James, and Irving have played just 33 games together since Mosgov was acquired from Denver in January. With those four plus Thompson composing the ongoing nucleus, it would be advantageous for all of them to play with another sometime before the month of June. Multiple occurrences would be nice, too.
The Cavaliers’ foray into the next six months will be a war of attrition, but it’s also a necessary window to develop familiarity with one another on the floor. Only then will they be able to maximize each other’s strengths and mount a challenge against the eventual Western Conference champions.
JUNE FLOWERS
This isn’t a very scientific way to describe why the Cavaliers will win the championship this year, but LeBron is due for one. I find it hard to believe that James can go to the Finals for six straight years and only win two of them, and I find it hard to believe that he wouldn’t will his hometown team to at least one finals win in three tries.
That being said, a reason of substance the Cavs will win the Finals is that they return this year with more firepower. With good health a fairly big assumption here, the next time Cleveland is in the Finals will be with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love aiding LeBron in the lineup, simultaneously strengthening their bench.
The Cavaliers have upgraded in the backcourt, ushering Dellavedova to third string in favor of Mo Williams. While the sometimes unpredictable gunner can shoot teams out of games, Williams is playing in a much more controlled system with plenty of options for him to dish to. His handle and penetration abilities are superior to Dellavedova’s and that’s where the Cavaliers will shine in the Finals.
Once Irving returns sometime between now and January, the most outstanding feature of the Cavaliers will be their depth, 1 through 10. Anderson Varejao is also back in the frontcourt, making a neat addition as a fourth big man. Richard Jefferson is a veteran with enough juice left along with the hunger for his first NBA championship. Jefferson remains a playmaker in his later age and his penchant to hit long-range jumpers will provide Cleveland with welcome support in times of need.
One of the reasons the Cavaliers lost in the Finals was not having enough bodies to outlast the Warriors. Now, with Anderson Varejao, Irving, and Love all back, they’ll have a top-nine roster that can matchup with any team in the league. The Cavaliers should be primed to win their first NBA Championship in franchise history because they have enough in the tank this time to carry them from November through June. They’ll be fresher and stronger when it matters most. The most powerful version of LeBron James is one with plentiful options, and that’s what he’ll have in June.
If not for running into one of the greatest generational teams in NBA history, there might have been nothing from stopping LeBron James from winning his third NBA Championship last year. With a full arsenal surrounding him, James should be seven months away from a reunion with the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Predicted finish: 59-23, 1st place in Eastern Conference, NBA Champions.
Chicago Bulls
Last Year: 50-32, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Key Additions: Bobby Portis (1st round draft pick- 22nd overall)
Key Losses: Nazr Mohammed (pseudo-retired)
For the last six years, the Chicago Bulls have been one of the best overall teams in the Eastern Conference. But over that same period of time they have yet to make it to the NBA Finals. There are two key reasons for those outcomes: Derrick Rose’s knee and LeBron James. LeBron’s teams ousted talented Chicago teams in 2011, 2013, and last year in the conference semifinals. In 2012 and 2014, the Bulls suffered early round exits because of depleted rosters, caused mostly in part by Rose being either at half power or completely unavailable because of his knee injuries.
Outside of their annually disappointing playoff finishes, this decade’s Bulls have been defined by hard-nosed 48-minute defense, a team-oriented offense, and annual regular season success unseen since the days of Michael Jordan. The rise of Derrick Rose coupled with Head Coach Tom Thibodeau’s instant implementation of his defensive system vaulted the Bulls to 62 wins in 2011, making Chicago an eastern power ever since. As time went on, the complexion of the Bulls changed, spurred on by annual adjustments made with long-term injuries to Rose and last year’s arrivals of Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic, two versatile big men who necessitate playing time.
As time also went on, friction increased between Chicago’s front office and their demanding coach. The unrealized results of May runs and personality clashes between Thibodeau and Chicago’s General Manager, Gar Forman, led to an increasingly dreary pall over the franchise the past two years. In addition to drama-based distractions, Thibodeau’s relentless defensive style and penchant for using his big men led to issues of overuse, suggesting symptoms relating to Chicago’s playoff exits.
The growing narrative by 2015 was as Thibodeau used his top 6-7 players every night for 30 minutes or more, they had no more gas by the time the exponentially more significant playoffs rolled around. The power struggle was eventually won by Chicago’s front office and Thibodeau was let go; his replacement was former Bull and Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg.
Hoiberg arrives to a Chicago team that’s well-stacked in talent, but contains a currently undefined identity going forward. The roster includes four very talented frontcourt players, all with varying skill sets. The best player on the team is their shooting guard Jimmy Butler, but quite often the conversation rarely begins with him. Rose still carries the perception of a former MVP but lacks the explosiveness or production that evokes memories of those days.
There’s also young, promising talent like last year’s draft pick Doug McDermott, third year guard Tony Snell, and 2015 first round selection Bobby Portis, all of whom need time on the floor to develop. Dividing the minutes and finding which pieces jive together best is a challenging equation that Hoiberg must solve.
The Bulls in 2015 may have very well had the deepest team in the Eastern Conference, but the Atlanta Hawks were younger and healthier, and the Cavaliers had LeBron James. This year, Cleveland has caught up to Chicago in the depth department and father time has moved one notch closer to multiple members of the Bulls. Still, Chicago possesses a wealth of talent from 1 through 12 that cannot be ignored.
While they haven’t found an answer for James and his counterparts in five years, the Bulls at least have a new maestro to try and devise a different strategy. The first step may be building a pace for this team that allows them to to thrive in May. The following are a couple of themes Hoiberg may encounter as he tries to sort out his lineups.
CHANGING OF THE GUARDS
With Rose’s unfortunate extended absences over the past four years, the Bulls have had to look to alternative options in their backcourt, one of which has been leaning towards their strength by default at the shooting guard position. Jimmy Butler came to this franchise in the nick of time, finding a place in the rotation just as Rose went down the first time in 2012.
With the dependable, yet unspectacular Kirk Hinrich manning extended minutes at point guard, the Bulls relied on Butler as he surged towards becoming one of the premier shooting guards in the league. Capped off with his Most Improved Player award, Butler has become not only one of the best players in the NBA, but an undeniable foundational piece of the Bulls. The latter was certified with a 5-year, $95 million extension in the offseason, establishing Butler as the present and future of the Bulls.
The signing has been regarded as a no-brainer for the Bulls as well as a transaction that should keep Chicago competitive in the east for years to come. Butler averaged better than 20 points per game last season and has evolved into an elite-level lockdown defender, making him one of the clear two-way stars in the NBA. He’s also developed a reputation as the kind of guy that shows up every night whether his team is feeling it or not.
Meanwhile, Rose remains a highly paid asset with the Bulls whose fall from the top has been subtly documented, but never truly verified in the mainstream. Rose remains the face of the Bulls despite his health struggles, yet somewhat ironically in part due to their success without him. The 2014-2015 season was Rose’s healthiest since tearing his ACL in the 2012 playoffs, giving way to the hope that he could return to being a long-term fixture in the Bulls lineup.
With Rose’s full return comes the juxtaposition of a quickly-aging guard next to a new franchise player in Butler. The new challenge Rose must overcome is rediscovering how to become an efficient player while co-existing with a guy who needs frequent touches in order for the Bulls to play at their best. Rose in the fourth year of a gaudy five-year contract that he hasn’t come close to fulfilling. Whether or not the Bulls see him as a part of the team beyond the summer of 2017, Rose feels the onus to maximize his value in anticipation of that free agency period.
We know this because he publicly said so in training camp prior to the season starting, a curious action for a player who again has not validated the lucrative contract he currently has. With Chicago’s window maybe closing, or re-opening without him, or stuck in an undetermined place, you would think there are greater matters on Rose’s mind (such as finding a way to overcome LeBron’s Cavaliers or working with his teammates to find a way to 50 wins under a brand new coach) than asking for money.
That leaves outsiders undecided on what the collective priorities of this Chicago backcourt are. The greatest tragedy would be for a talented backcourt to be on different pages, leaving out one potential true competitor to the emerging Cavaliers monolith. The NBA thrives when you have a narrative like a small-market team on the cusp of glory, but the league is twice as entertaining when the Cavaliers have real hurdles in their way. The Bulls on paper still present enough firepower to represent a team that could be more than just a “hurdle.”
Beyond the conversation of the Rose-Butler dynamic, there’s other talent to consider in Chicago’s backcourt reserves. Tony Snell enters his third year and looks to be another talented defender as well as a guy who has become a deadeye three point shooter, knocking down 40 percent of his attempts last season. He’s a valid option when Butler needs a breather or when Hoiberg wants to employ a wing-heavy lineup. Snell was a primetime shooter in college and seems like the kind of guy who could be a rotation fixture on a 50-win team.
We haven’t even taken time to talk about veteran Aaron Brooks, who returns to the team and can run the offense admirably in long stretches. In 2015, Brooks displayed a durability Rose has lacked, playing in all 82 games and posting an effective field goal percentage that was nearly five points better than Rose last year. While Brooks isn’t the total package like many hope Rose could still be, he brought an efficiency to this team that kept Chicago from missing a beat in the 31 games that Rose missed in 2015.
In Derrick Rose’s case, his game has shifted towards Forrest Gump mode: you don’t necessarily know what you’re going to get night to night. Jimmy Butler has proven he’s now capable of leading the Bulls to victory on a nightly basis; the better Hoiberg can mold his team towards that end while keeping Rose invested in team goals, the more success the Bulls will achieve.
R&R
Maybe the most fascinating development to observe in Chicago is how Hoiberg utilizes his lineups, especially during the dog days of the season. Thibodeau was notorious for pushing his guys in a mid-January contest as if it were a playoff game, adding to the argument that he was wearing out his players at a time it didn’t really matter. Six players (not including Rose who averaged 31 mpg in 10 total games) for Chicago averaged 28 minutes or more per game in 2014, and eventually flamed out to a lower-seeded Washington Wizards team in the first round of the playoffs in five games.
Thibodeau didn’t pull back last season either, as Butler led the league in minutes per game at 38.7 minutes per game. Gasol ranked 26th in the league in mpg at 34.4, and the top five players in the lineup all averaged 29 mpg or more. The Bulls summoned the energy to will themselves past an unseasoned Bucks team in six games, but eventually relented against the Cavaliers in the semifinals.
While gunning for 60 wins in a weaker east may be a temptation, Hoiberg must be constantly cognizant of player usage, both to pace a star like Butler and an older piece like Gasol, while also making time to develop his young talent. While the Bulls might end up giving back some wins during the season, the exchange is worth the cost of allowing Doug McDermott to find his three point stroke and Bobby Portis to become another frontcourt resource for a loaded group of fours and fives.
The mantra in Chicago has been to play for the moment. Once it gets slightly altered to “play for the moment which lies in May,” this Bulls team will then reach its full potential.
TOO MANY COOKS?
The greatest resource to Hoiberg may also be his greatest hurdle. With a plethora of talent comes a plethora of personalities and egos that need to be pacified. One of the big storylines this year in Chicago is unveiling a starting frontcourt of Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol, as opposed to longtime starting center Noah. While initial reports told of Noah personally advocating the request to come off the bench to Hoiberg, Noah later refused to confirm that report. Whether or not Noah welcomes the change, it’s a big sacrifice from a center who sacrificed so much over the past five years. Not only does Hoiberg have to sort out how to best utilize Noah in a lineup that lends itself to various stylistic options, he has to keep the impending free agent Noah happy as well.
We’ve spotlighted the potential for chemistry issues in Chicago’s starting backcourt, but there’s also the overall issue of minutes throughout the rotation. Last year’s first round draft pick McDermott played sparingly because of knee injuries and the Bulls still need to figure out what kind of player the former college player of the year will be as a pro. McDermott is a phenomenal shooter, who like Mirotic can stretch the floor, but defensively has little to offer at this point in his career.
McDermott will have to contend for minutes with the incumbent Mike Dunleavy, who will miss the first couple months of the season with after undergoing back surgery. Tony Snell also deserves his fair share of minutes and unlike McDermott, offers two-way skills as a shooter and a defender.
Then there’s Bobby Portis, one of the sleepers in this summer’s NBA draft. The Oklahoma product is another long, versatile forward who carries a spirit of physicality, defensive prowess and a willingness to eat up the boards. He sounds quite similar to another man in the rotation, Taj Gibson, who might be eventually expendable if Portis develops. Ironically, Portis’s development might require a guy like Gibson to abdicate his minutes! Tread softly, indeed for Coach Hoiberg!
The lineup combinations are infinite in Chicago, but on the flipside, the amount of headaches might be as well.
FINALLY
If we’re being honest, the most talented aspects of this team point toward Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol. They were the most consistent and healthy players on last year’s Bulls squad and are multidimensional players that change the game in the most ways. Noah is the heart and soul of this team but rest is a must for the center this year; while he’s been consistently selfless in the past, this season coupled with a new coach may be his greatest test yet.
Many prognosticators feel this Bulls team has a wide range for wins. Many perceive it as a team that can get to the mid-50s in total wins, while other feel it may flounder because of the growing pains which may occur.
I think Hoiberg will provide a breath of fresh air and the necessary foresight to plan for the long term. He may encounter rough footing for the Bulls in the first few months and the wins may not all come together at once, but the payoff should arrive in April in May. The best players on this team should expect significantly more vitality than they have in past springs.
I see too much talent on this roster for this team to struggle in the east. While the frontcourt might be overloaded, the best players will find their way on the floor and lead this team to victory more often than not. Few teams can put forth a player like Jimmy Butler, a game-changing two guard in a league that’s devoid of many quality players at that position. The biggest enemy for this team in the end will be chemistry and LeBron James. Teamwork and commitment to a common goal can overcome the former challenge, but I don’t know if any of the 29 teams in the NBA can defeat the latter.
Predicted finish: 51-31, 2nd place in Eastern Conference.
Detroit Pistons
Last Year: 32-50, 12th in Eastern Conference
Key Additions: Aron Baynes (Free agent, San Antonio), Ersan Ilyasova (trade with Milwaukee), Marcus Morris (trade with Phoenix), Steve Blake (trade with Brooklyn), Stanley Johnson (1st round pick-8th overall)
Key Losses: Greg Monroe (Free agent, Milwaukee), Tayshaun Prince (Free agent, Minnesota), Caron Butler (traded to Milwaukee for Ilyasova)
2014-2015 marked Head Coach Stan Van Gundy’s first campaign in Motown and it ran the gamut of all possible emotions. The first two months were a trainwreck as the Pistons sputtered to a 5-23 start. Then Van Gundy, the double coach/general manager, made a seismic transaction, waiving the highly-paid yet sleepwalking starting forward Josh Smith.
At the time Smith still had two years and $26 million remaining on his contract after the 2015 season. While it was a vigorous financial move that the Pistons used the stretch provision to pay off (meaning Smith will be on the books until 2020), the waiving immediately galvanized the team, unplugging major holes in the offense.
The release of Smith seemed to free up the Pistons, who were playing with a clogged frontcourt which still contained Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, two guys who are basically centers, while eliminating possessions from Smith who was a notoriously bad three point chucker. In the backcourt, it simultaneously activated starting point guard Brandon Jennings who tapped into his scoring proclivities and the Pistons immediately won seven straight games.
Immediately after the Smith waiving, Jennings began taking Detroit places; in the next 16 games the point guard averaged nearly 20 points and 7 assists per contest, capped off by a magnificent 24 points, 21 assist performance in Orlando in late January. But the following game in Milwaukee, Jennings tore his achilles, ending his season and delaying his start this year. With a record of 17-27, Detroit’s momentum was halted and they were unable to make it back to .500.
In the meantime, Detroit made changes shortly after Jennings’s injury. Needing a point guard, the Pistons acquired Reggie Jackson from Oklahoma City, a gifted scorer who was looking to escape from the shadows of Russell Westbrook. While Jackson brought his untimid shooting skills to Detroit, his didn’t necessarily bring offensive efficiency with him and the Pistons skidded the rest of the way, going 15-31 following Jennings’s last game of the season for a 32-50 finish.
With all the excitement and disappointment that occurred in Van Gundy’s first season, the year wasn’t a complete disaster. Detroit actually improved by three wins from the year before and while waiving Smith was costly, Van Gundy’s move quickly solidified the culture and style he wanted to establish in Detroit. The Pistons aggressively veered towards the classic Van Gundy blueprint by letting the offensively talented Greg Monroe walk in free agency to Milwaukee, then trading for longtime Bucks forward Ersan Ilyasova.
While the virtual exchange looked like a win for Milwaukee on paper, Ilyasova fits the needs of what Detroit hopes to be. While Monroe is a gifted passer and the clear-cut offensive talent between he and Drummond, it’s Drummond who is more physically gifted and the future foundation of a Pistons team based on interior defense and three point shooting.
As last season progressed, issues of spacing between Monroe and Drummond near the blocks became painfully clear. While Monroe added the allure of what a traditional post player can do, Van Gundy didn’t necessarily desire that skill set for what he wants to build in Detroit: a team that looks like newest iteration of the one he took to the 2009 NBA Finals.
ORLANDO MAGIC 2.0?
As the Pistons’ roster continued taking shape this summer, the roster elements began reminding analysts of Van Gundy’s most successful team, the Orlando Magic. Like the Magic who had at that time the best all-around center in the league in Dwight Howard, this Pistons roster features an athletic behemoth in Drummond.
If you put Drummond in front of Howard on one of those evolutionary charts, Drummond would looks like the 5:4 ratio scale human versus Howard. Drummond is a solid 7-foot-1 specimen who can leap, run, swat nearly every shot that comes his way, and consume the boards resminiscent of how Howard did in Orlando. While Drummond’s offense is currently limited and his putrid free throw shooting currently serves as a tribute to his Orlando predecessor, Drummond’s presence dictates everything on the defensive end and offensively he serves as a great finisher in the restricted area.
In addition to Ilyasova, a prototypical stretch four who lives on the perimeter but can penetrate when need be, Van Gundy made two other notable moves, signing San Antonio backup center Aron Baynes, an unglamorous yet effective post defender, and trading for Marcus Morris, one half of the rabble-rousing Morrii twin conglomerate from the Phoenix Suns.
With a mostly defensive resource in Baynes, who somewhat acts as a distant allusion to Marcin Gortat from Orlando, the Pistons became a stronger defensive team in the interior in hopes of warding off all would-be penetrators. While Baynes was posterized approximately 78 times in Game 1 of the Spurs’ series with the LA Clippers, he defends the post dependably enough and rounds out a strong 1-2 defensive punch with Drummond.
Morris and Ilyasova are compelling additions. When Van Gundy took the Magic to the Finals, he did it not with a traditional forward lineup, but rather two long stretch fours that in those days would have qualified as “long small forwards,” Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. The latter was an all-star and while the less talented of the Morris twins in Marcus and Ilyasova are more modest talents, their ability to stretch the floor and maneuver to the hoop in the snap of a finger makes life difficult for slow-footed bigs.
In the case that defenses do choose to throw extra bodies towards Ilyasova and Morris, Drummond is waiting underneath to punish the poor rotational defender on an easy jam. While the Pistons frontcourt isn’t a finished product, the blueprint is taking shape as Van Gundy trims the fat and signs “his kind of guys.”
POINT GUARD OF THE FUTURE
One of the major storylines in the NBA last season was the major expansion of the salary cap, allowing just about every team in the league major financial flexibility to throw big contracts at even average players. With everyone on a level lucrative playing field, there were relatively few free agent deals that had people scratching their heads. But one transaction that raised the collective eyebrows of the league was the five-year, $80 million contract extension the Pistons gave to their new point guard Reggie Jackson. While the apparent league mandate has become that every team needs a good point guard to keep up with the Jameses, Jackson has had little time to prove himself as a league-average starter. While he performed impressively as a starter in select games that Westbrook missed over the past three years, Jackson needed his fair share of shots to get to his desired point total.
With the welcome change of scenery, Jackson’s efficiency climbed in Detroit after a slow start to his final, unhappy half-season in Oklahoma City. His three point percentage climbed from 29.9% in OKC to 33.7% in Detroit. His PER also surged from 15.6 to 19.8 after arriving to Michigan. Maybe most encouraging from his 27 game sample size prior to the $80 million raise was his assist rate doubling after being traded.
If money means everything, the contract signifies Detroit is ready to hitch their wagon to Jackson for the long-term, and subsequently means Jennings’s future with the Pistons is completely uncertain. The achilles injury is the most devastating injury a basketball player can suffer, and while Jennings’s return is forecasted for midseason, it will be at least one full year before we see the new version of his maximum explosiveness return. Jennings is already entering the final year of an economical contract set to pay him $8 million and the injury has likely reduced his options.
An option Detroit has is to sign him as a discount, utilizing him as a backup which gives them the flexibility to let him rehab at a sensible rate, or let him walk. It could be tempting for Detroit to keep him with the organization and see if he can rediscover a hint of the chemistry that found the Pistons playing at a .750 win percentage prior to his injury. Jennings’s penetration and court vision made him an asset last year, and while the achilles injury will reduce his speed, the 7th year point guard was shooting one of his best clips from three point range last year at 36 percent.
If Jennings can shoot at that clip from the arc in his comeback, his skill set will remain a borderline commodity. In the short-term, this is a year of recovery for Jennings and maybe an opportunity for the Pistons to see if he’s worth investing in further. But in 2015, Jackson gets to drive the Pistons. His decision-making could shed light on how much this team will accomplish offensively.
DEFENSIVE STRIDES
The other hallmark of a Stan Van Gundy system is ferocious, spacious defense. With Drummond as the centerpiece, the infrastructure is taking shape. While Monroe was a literally big offensive talent, he was never mistaken for being a Ben Wallace clone. His space now gets occupied by Baynes, Morris, and Ilyasova. Van Gundy has always hung his hat on putting forth great defensive teams, and Orlando’s annual top-5 defensive ratings lifted them to Eastern Conference supremacy.
While the talent level surrounding Drummond hasn’t soared to the level that’s likely necessary for this team to be a playoff team and an eventual Eastern Conference champion contender, the shifting landscape around the NBA produces lineups that Van Gundy’s lineups can viably defend. While Drummond is the last and most imposing line of defense on the Pistons, this roster contains wings that can do the job as well. Rookie Stanley Johnson is a wide and powerful 6-foot-8 body that can bully outside wings while also possessing the speed to stay with them from the arc to Drummond.
In Van Gundy’s first year the Pistons made the jump from 26th in defensive rating to 19th. With Drummond developing into an even more imposing player this year, the Pistons should see another steady climb towards the middle of the league in terms of defensive effectiveness. Sooner than later, we can expect to see Detroit described as one of the toughest places to play in the league with Drummond and Co. shutting down visiting offenses.
DEEEE-TROIT BASKETBALL
The Pistons remain a work in progress but unlike their last few years, this is now a team with an identity. The recent draft picks of talented wings Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Stanley Johnson present two real young talents that can constitute pieces of a playoff team, and in a few years Drummond will be a force that most teams will envy and fear.
What’s holding Detroit back at the moment is their depth and youth. Van Gundy will go with a thin bench this year, and besides the three point threat and defensive presence of Drummond, the cumulative skill set his frontcourt presents is still relatively slim compared to the other powers in the east.
Detroit will be a fun team to watch with their frantic, equal-opportunity offensive style that caters to athleticism, three-point shooting, and a variety of players who can create a dribble-drive attack to the rim. Their swarming defense will keep them in a lot of games they weren’t able to compete in last season. The best part of this team is the future, and the 2016 playoffs will arrive before then. Still, the Pistons are worth keeping your eyes on this season. They will have great moments that point to excellence down the road.
Predicted finish: 38-44, 9th place in Eastern Conference.
Indiana Pacers
Last Year: 38-44, 9th in Eastern Conference
Key Additions: Jordan Hill (Free agent, Lakers), Monta Ellis (Free agent, Dallas), Chase Budinger (trade with Minnesota), Myles Turner (1st round pick- 11th overall)
Key Losses: David West (Free agent, San Antonio), Chris Copeland (Free agent, Milwaukee), Luis Scola (Free agent, Toronto), CJ Watson (Free agent, Orlando), Roy Hibbert (traded to Lakers)
The welcome sign this year in front of Bankers Life Fieldhouse should read “Welcome to Indiana: Where the guard play is plentiful and the frontcourt is bare!”
The Pacers defensive juggernaut that stood near the top of the east for the last four years is officially dead. From its ashes, a new creation with 2-guards aplenty is trying to emerge. A franchise beset with arguably more bad luck than any other club in the league over the past 15 years hit the disaster jackpot again two summers ago, when superstar forward Paul George broke his leg in a grotesque collision while playing in a scrimmage with Team USA.
Without George and the departed Lance Stephenson, two of the team’s top three scorers in 2014, the Pacers struggled to score on a nightly basis and got off to a slow start from which they could not recover. While expectations for the Pacers minus their two most prolific wings were greatly reduced, they still remained competitive, mainly because of a remaining personnel that could play staunch defense.
At year’s end, the Pacers ranked 7th in defensive rating but finished with an odious 24th in offensive rating. Though George rehabbed quickly enough to make a quick six game cameo, it was evident the Pacers didn’t have enough firepower and the championship window with their current roster was growing old. Pacers President Larry Bird made the swift decision to let talented veteran David West walk, and traded away center Roy Hibbert, eliminating 3/5ths of the Pacers starting lineup from 15 months earlier. Bird also elected not to re-sign Luis Scola, a talented but aging forward.
Bird tried to replenish the Pacers by drafting Myles Turner, a fascinating 7-foot talent out of Texas with Indiana’s #11 overall pick in the draft. He made one more rather subtle move, signing reserve forward Jordan Hill away from the Lakers. Externally satisfied with the pieces of his frontcourt, he then signed guard Monta Ellis from Dallas to complete the meat of his summertime asset accumulation.
The result was a lineup with a wealth of guards, a couple of role players in the frontcourt, and the 19-year old Turner in the post. At first glance, the Pacers look like a team that are trying to field a roster that aligns with the rest of the league’s overall smallball-oriented patrols.
The plan, at least right away, is to shuttle out the mainstays in point guard George Hill and guard CJ Miles, while also adding Monta Ellis, a ballhandling 2-guard to the lineup. Obviously George must play a large volume of minutes, so he has been thrust to the power forward position. Veteran center Ian Mahinmi completes the starting lineup until Turner’s long-term development can start making real strides. The strength of this team lies in its guards, therefore Head Coach Frank Vogel naturally has chosen to employ all of them at the same time.
While smallball appears to be the status quo style around the league right now, the formations in Indiana present us with an interesting experiment. George has been less than thrilled with the idea of playing in the power forward spot, a daunting task on days the 6-foot-7 sometimes guard has to matchup with opposing teams’ traditional brutes and taller guys. The juxtaposition of four veteran guards ostensibly running, gunning, jacking threes and pushing the ball with a long but limited big in Mahinmi or the potential-filled but raw Turner is also another majestic NBA creation to observe. Indiana should certainly be applauded for their no-turning-back commitment to one specific style. The exciting possibility from a viewers’ perspective is we currently have no idea if this idea will work.
SUPERSTAR STATUS?
Somewhat lost in the Pacers’ guard-oriented makeover project is the return of Paul George. His injury in summer 2014 was a shocking and disappointing event that docked the overall quality of the league with his absence, while accelerating the end of one of the better teams that have stood in the way of LeBron James during his prime. Even though George mustered a return to the floor in the final month of last season, he wasn’t yet the same player who looked like the second best player in the Eastern Conference in their prior two playoff runs.
While George was the unabashed star of the Pacers even before his injury, the expectations of this franchise’s future success hinge on his shoulders first, second, and third. Turner holds potential to someday be a franchise player but he’s an investment that remains years from fully generating major dividends.
The mission for George this year is to complete his comeback to being the player he was in 2013 and 2014 while creating the future identity of the Pacers with his mostly new teammates. While Indiana has a fair share of returnees from last year’s campaign, they weren’t on the team when George last played a full season. George has spent relatively few to no minutes with CJ Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Ellis, and most of the frontcourt rotation players. George Hill serves as the main link between the Pacers Eastern Conference Finals teams and the new era roster in terms of minutes played with both groups.
There’s a lot of pressure riding on George this season because of the variety of tasks he faces: He must take on and succeed in rebuilding his body into the physical form he had prior to his significant knee injury. He must also learn the nuances and feel of moving from the small forward position up to stretch four, while contending with the increased physicality of battling bigger players on defense. George also has to learn how to play alongside his mostly new teammates, and finally he has to lead them back to the playoffs, all while maintaining health and energy for a six month stretch.
George is being asked to do a lot in a season that might otherwise be reserved for self-improvement and finishing off recovery from a relatively recent major injury. One of the most fascinating subplots of this NBA season is if George can hold up from everything his organization demands of him, or if his body will break down at some point between now and April. On the other hand, perhaps he’ll find enough resources around him to take off some of his offensive pressure. Like his team overall, George is another interesting player in a smallball era experiment.
THE TURNER CEILING
While they picked towards the end of the lottery round, the Pacers number 11 selection of center Myles Turner was hailed as a relative steal (or at least I was hailing it as such- the choice was a home run hit for Indiana and you’ll see why in four to five years). With Indiana’s two most significant frontcourt players off to greener pastures this offseason, the Pacers had an immediate glaring need up front. The choice to replace West and Hibbert with Turner was an ingenious move and while it doesn’t solve an immediate issue with their lineup, it potentially puts this franchise to be right back in business within a season or two.
Turner is a captivating talent whose size is the first thing you’ll notice. One of the highest regarded players from his senior high school class, Turner developed slowly in his lone year at Texas but constantly showed glimpses through his body and in-game moments why he could a great professional someday. Some specific attributes about Turner worth spending your excitement on is his rebounding ability, a smooth-looking mid range shooting stroke, his general length, and his shot blocking rate.
Turner is built like a guy who can live on the block, but also drift to the elbow for spacing purposes. His skill set points to becoming the type of player who can affect a game two ways, while offering a frontcourt versatility that nobody on the Pacers had during their relative glory days of the first half of this decade.
Turner’s potential is enormous, but I also have to constantly keep in mind that he’s just 19 years old and another year of college could have served him well. Even with the nondescript Ian Mahinmi and much smaller Jordan Hill occupying his eventual starting spot, Turner is still far from filling out the NBA body he will eventually possess. Already, Turner will make one or two plays a game that turn your head along with flashes of dominance that elicit immediate envy from opposing teams’ fans.
With George locked down in Indiana for the long run, the eventual hope for the Pacers is that the two will constitute a unique 1-2 punch. The beauty of Turner is being shaped like a dominant big man of the old days, but also possessing the agility to function effectively within the scope of a purposely designed smallball lineup. An emerging Myles Turner plus four guards still looks imposing against most lineups in 2015-16, but if he becomes the player Bird envisions, the possibilities will go wide beyond that.
SETTING THE PACE
Only two years ago, the most remarkable features of the Indiana Pacers were their star power in Paul George and their depth. Their fearsome frontcourt could batter teams by going to work in the post, or handing the ball to George who could create an infinite amount of possibilities, or kicking it out to George Hill who is dependable from three point range. And their bench was loaded with an assortment of personalities who could at worst, give a starter a breather and at best, pick up where their counterparts left off.
But after team success peaked in early 2014, this team began growing older and the aging process was brought to light with George’s unfortunate summer injury. Bird has done an admirable job of improvising this roster after eradicating impending symptoms of an old man’s roster by infusing it with run-and-gun guards.
George is a promising starting piece for Indiana’s future, and Myles Turner was a no-brainer of an add. But beyond those two, this roster just does not look that imposing or deep, and there seems to be a good amount of overlap with what a lot of these players can do. Rodney Stuckey at this point is nothing more than a generic backup point guard, and CJ Miles, while being very good at his one dimension of three point shooting, is just a one dimensional player. Monta Ellis has enjoyed success in exactly one spot in the league before arriving to Indiana, and there is a healthy subtle fear that he could shoot the Pacers out of more games than he keeps them in.
Until Turner’s evolution is complete (a process that might take at least four to five years), this frontcourt is not ready to compete on a nightly basis. Mahinmi and Hill have been stellar role players on successful teams, but their impact will be hard to enforce with higher usages.
The Pacers have the ability to run and shoot, a far cry from their identity even two years ago. The question is, with West, Hibbert, and the old gang gone, can this team still defend? They may received the answer the hard way in 2015-16 while entertaining Hoosiers in the process.
Predicted finish: 36-46, 11th place in Eastern Conference
Milwaukee Bucks
Last Year; 41-41, 6th in Eastern Conference
Key Additions: Greg Monroe (Free agent, Detroit), Greivis Vasquez (trade with Toronto), Chris Copeland (Free agent, Indiana), Rashad Vaughn (1st round draft pick – 17th overall)
Key Losses: Zaza Pachulia (trade with Dallas), Jared Dudley (trade with Washington), Ersan Ilaysova (trade with Detroit)
The Bucks last season completed another stellar mini-resurgence, which I think is their 43rd instance since 1999. After finishing with the worst record in the league two years ago, Jason Kidd came to town and engineered a .500 finish. Even more exciting, he did it with a roster whose nucleus consists of mostly young players. The majority of last year’s hubbub surrounding the Bucks was due to the growth of the Greek Freak, 6-foot-11 Giannis Antetokounmpo.
A young, athletic, and impossibly lanky specimen whose position I still can’t properly define (which might be because he possibly plays all five positions) did it all last year for the Bucks. “The Alphabet” nearly doubled his ppg to a 12.7 average, increased his rebounds to nearly 7 per game, and showed off his passing ability in statistics and countless highlights. He’s emerged as a key component of Milwaukee’s future championship aspirations.
Beyond the Greek Freak, there were many other developments to take into account, some of which were thrilling, and some of which were achievements over adversity. Benefactors of the second overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Bucks spent it on Jabari Parker out of Duke, my favorite player in college basketball two years ago. Bias aside, Parker was a dynamic scorer who could score from inside and out, and possessed the possibility of becoming a guy who could take over games. In today’s shifting NBA landscape, Parker looks like a player who can play at least three positions and run an offense too.
Unfortunately, the Milwaukee and NBA general fanbases were deprived of discovering either when Parker tore his ACL before Christmas, ending his rookie campaign after 25 games. Early returns on Parker’s abilities were somewhat inconclusive. He generated better than 12 ppg and was a valid rebounder for a small forward, grabbing 6.7 boards per contest but didn’t do much damage from behind the arc, hitting just 4 of 16 attempts. Some grumbles about his defense continued from his college season, but it was tempting at the same time to give him a pass for a condensed sample size, let alone his rookie season in the NBA.
Parker returns this month and while hopes remain high that he’ll give Milwaukee an instant impactful lift, the Bucks and fans will need to respect his rehabilitation process. Players usually need a year to find their old ways once they return to the floor from an ACL injury and with Parker being so young, he concurrently is still developing his game at the pro level. Still, Bucks fans should be uplifted about the new dimension he’ll add back into the Bucks’ lineup.
The Bucks treaded water after losing Parker in their 25th game of the year, going 28-29 the rest of the way, good enough for a six seed in the Eastern Conference. While Parker’s absence took a chunk out of the lineup, his void offered room for others to bloom. Such was the case with small forward Khris Middleton, whose wondrous production earned him a five-year, $70 million deal this offseason.
Middleton led the team in points in 2015 while becoming one of the best three point shooters in the league. While Middleton’s journey is young, two consecutive seasons of 40-plus percent shooting from distance makes him both a hot commodity and a critical asset to the Bucks’ future.
There was also the midseason saga surrounding presumed big man Larry Sanders, which is far too complicated to detail here but left them with an empty spot at center after he was suspended for his second time in a calendar year for marijuana use, then quit the sport altogether to seek treatment for mental health.
Another interesting chapter of the 2015 Bucks was the midseason multi-team trade in which they dealt starting point guard Brandon Knight to Phoenix and acquired Michael Carter-Williams from Philadelphia. Knight, having arguably his finest season in the league, was exchanged for the slightly older Carter-Williams who has two fewer season of NBA experience on his belt. With all these changes and events, it might be a major achievement that Milwaukee not only went .500, but in doing so won 26 more games than they did the year before.
Naturally, after such a great leap, you’d figure Milwaukee will only do it again and continue to jet right up the Eastern Conference totem pole, correct? For me, the answer today is “maybe.”
The Bucks made some moves that would pave the way for upward movement, such as the big name free agent signing of Greg Monroe, the re-signing of Middleton, casting away some older players, a full year of Michael Carter-Williams on the roster, and the internal sequence of getting Jabari Parker back.
On one hand, this roster looks jampacked in a way it hasn’t since the days of Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Glenn Robinson. But this roster has seen so much movement, segmentation, and it’s just now where the musical chairs have finally stopped shifting. We know this much so far: the Milwaukee Bucks are the Apple Watch of NBA teams. They’re sleek, new, and everyone’s talking about it. What we don’t yet know is its long term functionality.
WHAT’S THEIR EVENTUAL STARTING LINEUP GOING TO BE?
With so many roster changes comes a plethora of ideas for who to use in the starting lineup. The incumbents are a nice place to start, which means you can count on Carter-Williams at point guard, Middleton at small forward or two guard, and Antetokounmpo somewhere. The Bucks just paid Monroe $50 million, so I’ll feel safe enough slotting him at the five. That leaves an opening for Parker in the lineup, and as he recovers, we’ve seen reserve big man Johnny O’Bryant and guard Jerryd Bayless split those starts.
With the return of Parker and arrival of Monroe, the immediate question that creeps up is how the Bucks will maintain their defensive results. The Bucks ranked third in the league last year in defensive rating as Antetokounmpo and Middleton made life miserable for opposing wings. Monroe and Parker are two players who were “limited at best” in their past defensive affairs. Antetokounmpo has an unreplicable body that will make a huge difference with his steals and chase down shot blocking, but there’s only one of him.
Finishing off with the backcourt, we come to maybe the best defender in this starting five in Middleton. His rise has been quick and his current transformation is one of a “3-and-D” guy (although that might be discounting a ton of other things he brings to the table). He’s a bothersome force against opposing wings and as you look around the floor, you’re inclined to certify him as the best defender. Carter-Williams brings a figure of two steals per game in 25 games for Milwaukee, a result of his notable length.
It’s imperative to the long-term goals of Milwaukee for Parker become a key fixture in their lineup. Almost as important Parker has to be able to reciprocate a satisfactory defensive effort. In cases opposing wings break past the perimeter, the final lines of defense will be Parker and Monroe. If that line leads to a drop in defensive prowess, they’ll have to exceed it in offensive efficiency. That could be a problem in the long-term with Carter-Williams steering the ship.
Following the surprising trade deadline acquisition which swapped out the budding Knight for a not-yet-developed Carter-Williams, the Bucks skidded out to finish their season. They were 12-20 after Carter-Williams’s arrival, leading to questions if the Bucks fixed something that didn’t need to be addressed. This will remain Carter-Williams’ team to run, and the long-term impact of his presence on the Bucks is yet to be determined.
The Bucks roster is packed with athletes, all with various offensive specialities. If Parker hits his ceiling, he’ll be versatile inside out and a number one go-to scorer. Monroe is a midrange specialist who can go inside when needed. Spacing between Monroe and Andre Drummond was an issue in Detroit, but in Milwaukee surrounded by diverse wings, he’ll have space to roam free from the blocks to the elbows.
The defensive drop off for the Bucks this year is to be expected; with an influx of two players who are primarily offensively gifted, there will be a reduction in defensive excellence. The hope is that these two can have a major part in raising Milwaukee’s putrid 27th best offensive rating to a range that’s at least middle of the league. It’s not an answer that will come about tomorrow, but in the Eastern Conference, there’s time for the Bucks to figure things out.
CALLING ALL POINT GUARDS
The point guard quandary in Milwaukee is maybe the most immediate source of angst for a fanbase that should have less of it than ever. Milwaukee seemed to be moving along nicely in February at 30-23 when they cast off Brandon Knight to Phoenix. While the move may have been financially prudent (Knight collected a $70 million contract from the Suns this summer and Carter-Williams is in Year 3 of a four-year rookie scale contract), the Bucks might have unknowingly created a big drop in point guard production.
Without peering at his advanced metrics,