Russell Wilson hopes to be the calming factor amidst a rocky start to 2014. {photo credit: USA Today}
What a turbulent week it has been for the defending Super Bowl Champions.
It all started by losing at home to the Dallas Cowboys, then was compounded by the shocking trade of the team’s most talented offensive weapon, and concluded with the stunning, frustrating, difficult road loss to the St. Louis Rams.
And the Seattle Seahawks are 3-3….
Could you have thought that in the offseason following a Super Bowl victory? How about after a preseason that saw the starting offense cruise to 11 scores in 13 possessions? Or after a dominating, impressive 20-point victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to start the season?
The Seahawks at 3-3 are just one of many surprises produced by the NFL through the first seven weeks. Unfortunately, seven weeks is no longer early in the year, and many are deciding it’s time to worry. We’re nearly halfway through the season, with a very difficult schedule lurking in the final seven weeks, no bye week, a significant amount of injuries, and a reverted offensive philosophy.
So what can we make of the Seahawks? Here are five reactions.
Reaction #1: No nails left to bite
No matter the opponent, the Seahawks have been and will always be in close games (save perhaps a handful of blowout victories). Only once in the Russell Wilson-era have they been defeated by more than one possession (Week 2 this year at San Diego), and that was only because of a gimme insurance field goal in the final seconds.
The consistency of these close games puts a premium on making the necessary clutch plays to win such contests. For the most part, the 2014 Seahawks haven’t done that. Even when they have — like Richard Sherman’s crucial 3rd-down pass break-up on Tavon Austin last Sunday — the efforts have been nullified; the most recent instance coming from the guts of a nothing-to-lose Jeff Fisher, who called a fake-punt from inside his team’s own 20, even though failing to convert would have meant losing the game. Not to mention a critical last-minute fumble that the Hawks thought to have recovered – but somehow didn’t.
As Doug Baldwin says: “You win some, you learn some.” There are always lessons to be learned in losses. However, one of the differences between ’13 and so far in ’14 is this: A year ago, the Hawks learned valuable lessons about themselves while eking out tough wins (e.g. Week 4 at Houston, Week 8 at St Louis, and Week 9 vs Tampa Bay). This year, they have not been so fortunate. The struggles and weaknesses of this year’s team have resulted in losses every time. That is completely understandable, and can be the easiest difference between a 13-win division-champion and one with 11 or 10 victories that finishes as a Wild Card.
And yet, those three losses have involved: 42 minutes of possession for the opponent in 110-degree weather (San Diego), a ridiculous 3rd-and-20 conversion in the waning moments of the 4th quarter (Dallas), two insane fake-punt executions on special teams (St Louis), and SIX fumbles by the opponent that Seattle has not been able to grab (9 forced, 3 recovered), including the unfortunate recovery-that-wasn’t at the end of the Rams game. In the other two losses, Russell Wilson had the football in the final moments with a drive to win the game.
If any number of those listed factors goes the way of the Seahawks instead of their opponent, we could very well be talking about a 4-2 team, possibly even 5-1, and the conversation would be significantly different.
Alas…
Reaction #2: Is the defense bad?
Well, it hasn’t been good!
Say what you want about the offensive inconsistency, the biggest disappointment this year has been on the other side of the ball. Of course it would be crazy to think the Seattle defense could replicate their dominating standard from a year ago, but how can one make sense of these statistical differences:
Category 2013 NFL Rank 2014 NFL Rank*
Def. Pass Efficiency (DVOA) 1ST 19th
3rd Down Defense 34.31% (6TH) 46.99% (28th)
Red Zone Defense 39.53% (1ST) 72.22% (31st)
Yards/Game 273.6 yds/game (1ST) 325 yds/game (8th)
Sacks T7th (44; 2.75/game) 30th (7; 1.17/game)
Sack % 6TH (7.51% of drop backs) 27th (3.2% of DBs)
Interceptions 9 INT through 6 games 2 INT (31st)
(28 Total — 1ST) (On Pace: 5 INT)
* Statistics through Week 7
{Statistics courtesy of: NFL.com, ESPN.com, footballoutsiders.com, profootballfocus.com, teamrankings.com}
Goodness. Where to start?
The stat-splits pretty much speak for themselves, but here’s couple of observations anyway.
It should be noted that the quality of quarterbacks through six games has been very good. There’s the ever-impressive Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers in an MVP-caliber season, Peyton Manning doing what he does, and Tony Romo in what has been a career-best season for him. I think this most significantly explains the lowered totals in both third-down defense and red-zone defense. Indeed, the Rivers to Gates connection in Week 2 was unstoppable in the red-area, while Manning is one of history’s best at picking up third downs and converting touchdowns, and that eerie Romo-magic produced one of most ridiculous 3rd-down conversions in recent memory. The famed L.O.B. has also allowed 12 touchdowns through the air, as opposed to just 3 on the ground. Though elite quarterbacks have not slowed down the Seahawks defense in the recent past, perhaps the numbers needed to regress toward the mean, and they’ve very much done so through six games.
The pass-rush has been bad. No way around it. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett have been playing much more in base packages than last year, and that was bound to happen following the departures of Chris Clemons, Red Bryant, and even Clinton McDonald. Acquiring Kevin Williams, keeping Tony McDaniel, resigning O’Brien Schofield, and drafting Cassius Marsh was meant to keep that invaluable pass-rushing depth, but it simply hasn’t been the case in 2014. Marsh is lost for the year, Williams and McDaniel are more effective vs the run, Schofield has had his moments, but Avril and Bennett just haven’t had the same luck sacking the quarterback as they did a year ago.
Pete Carroll has been asked countless times in recent weeks about the struggles in the individual areas of pass-rush, secondary, turnovers, 3rd-down defense, 3rd down offense, carries for Marshawn Lynch, etc. His answer is steadily the same, and is undeniably true: the areas are all connected.
And it makes sense: of course an effective pass-rush would allow for more tight coverage in the back end and more chances at the ball. And good plastering in coverage would allow for a few more split-seconds to get to the quarterback. And if the defense gets off the field on third down, the offense can get more chances to move the ball. And if the defense could keep the opponent out of the end zone, the offense wouldn’t feel the need to throw as much (e.g. San Diego, St Louis) and could feed Marshawn Lynch his due amount of touches.
It’s ridiculous to keep accusing the coaching staff and Darrell Bevell for not getting Marshawn Lynch the ball as much as they should. The truth is that the game flow has made it extremely difficult, and the Seahawks have not been able to dictate their offensive gameplan at all since Week 1. That isn’t to say there have been certain play calls that I personally think should have been runs for Lynch and were called otherwise, but it would be nice for the Hawks to get out in front early in a game and stay there, and see what Lynch can bring with 24-26 carries.
Reaction #3: ENOUGH with all the PENALTIES!!
For a fan, penalties are just the worst.
Penalties are the easiest and most straightforward point of reaction for any fan watching at any moment. Your team does something, sometimes good, and it gets taken away, and you move backward instead. It’s horrible.
The Seahawks are the 4th-most frequently penalized team in football through seven weeks, being whistled for 8.5 penalties for game. That includes a drastic average of 10.3 penalties per game on the road!
Another difference between 2013 and 2014 is that the penalties have almost exclusively come on the OFFENSIVE side of the ball this year instead of DEFENSE. In fact, the Seahawks defense is actually the least-penalized unit in football through seven weeks in penalties per game, committing fewer than 5 per game. All other defenses are averaging at least 5/game. Last year, the Seahawks defense averaged 6.13 penalties/game, so at least there’s improvement there, especially in a year where the alleged area of focus in officiating was because of the over-aggressive Seattle secondary. I guess that’s not the case after all.
The offense, though, just makes you shake your head.
Seattle is the 7th-most penalized offense in football through 7 weeks. And let’s be honest, it’s been the offensive line. The Hawks have been called for 10 holding penalties through six games, averaging the 2nd-most holds/game in football. Six of the ten calls have come from the left side of the O-Line (Okung, Carpenter, Bailey).
But far more frustrating than the occasional hold or run-of-play penalty are the sheer amount of Pre-Snap penalties committed by the Seattle this year.
Seattle has committed a drastic 4.17 PRE-SNAP Penalties per game! That’s the worst in football by a WIDE margin (Tampa Bay is next-worst, averaging almost a full pre-snap penalty less at 3.33/game). Here’s insult to injury: The Jaguars are the BEST team in football in avoiding pre-snap penalties, committing just 1.17 per game. The Jags! I guess our old friend Gus is doing something right over there. Congrats on win #1, Gus!
Seattle’s 12 false starts is the NFL’s worst total among teams that have played six games, including a league-worst 7 false starts on the road. Also – isn’t it weird that opponents have committed just ONE false start combined against Seattle this year? Damn silent count.
Here’s some consolation: Seattle was the most-penalized team in football last year (though averaging just 8.0 penalties/game), and of course won the Super Bowl. The increase in penalty averages across the league can be attributed to tighter-whistling refs, but for the Seahawks the penalties have come at crucial times. The pre-snap discipline must improve, as does all team discipline across the board, and especially in road games, in order for the Seahawks to maximize their already fragile offensive opportunities.
Reaction #4: Wait, who is that?
“The mark of a good team is when you declare a starter, six starters, or five starters out before the game, and then lose a couple more players, and bring people in off practice squads and play them and things, and play the way they did, that’s pretty impressive.” — Rams coach Jeff Fisher on the Seahawks following Sunday’s game
Penalties are the worst, but injuries are a close second.
The injury bug hit the Seahawks hard in the past week, losing key starters in Bobby Wagner, Byron Maxwell, and Luke Willson all in the week leading up to St. Louis. This is already after losing additional starters like Max Unger and Zach Miller to injury the week before. Then, as if it wasn’t enough, starting fullback Derrick Coleman broke a bone in his foot in pregame warm-ups before the Rams game.
Carroll is ever-the-optimist, echoing his “next-man-up” philosophy in the wake of all these injuries. But there comes a point where enough depleted personnel leads to a lesser on-field product. The Seahawks may be deep, but any time you play Marcus Burely on 60% of your defensive snaps and KJ Wright at inside-linebacker (though he’s played well there before), the defense just won’t function the same. Throw in Stephen Schilling at center and Cooper Helfet at tight end, plus the activation of Rashaun Allen for the first time from the practice squad, and Robert Turbin at fullback, and you get significant drop-off from the likes of Unger, Miller, even Willson and Coleman, no matter how well the backups perform.
On a fullback note: on Monday, Carroll was asked if he was looking into bringing any former Seahawks in to play fullback (referring to NFL Network analyst, Michael Robinson). Carroll’s response? “We’re looking into all our options.” Count me in for bringing Mike Rob back!
Coleman and Miller will be out for a while. Unger hopes to make it back this week, though 2 more weeks is more likely for him. Willson should also be good to go for this week at Carolina, as should a banged-up Tharold Simon, who played his first game action of 2014 last week and looked pretty good before leaving early. Byron Maxwell is also rumored to be coming back this week following his calf strain vs Dallas. Jeremy Lane will be a welcome addition to the secondary, and he is scheduled to resume practicing for the first time this week since suffering a groin injury, though he is not eligible to play until Week 10 vs the Giants.
Perhaps the most important injured starter is Bobby Wagner. Carroll’s diagnosis of “it’s going to be a while” doesn’t seem promising for him, either. This seems to be the time of year when the Hawks will need to stem the tide on the injury-front, rely on the shifted personnel to perform, and find all possible ways to win games until the regulars are back in the lineup.
Reaction #5: Life without Percy…
Perhaps having the Percy Harvin reaction lowest in this piece is telling by itself.
I am not concerned about the possible detriment that trading Percy Harvin will have on the offense.
Of course, the off-field distraction Harvin apparently became over time makes his trade an easier decision to make. Honestly, the more reports that have arisen about his locker room conduct makes it more of a relief that the Seahawks were able to get anyone to take on that contract at all. A conditional sixth-round pick seems like nothing, but the big win for Seattle is they don’t have to pay the man anymore. That’s huge.
On-the-field, there is no doubting Harvin’s ability. Explosive speed, threat after the catch, defensive nightmare in gameplanning – you name it, Harvin is that guy. But for whatever reason, Darrell Bevell and Carroll were not able to optimize his utility. Harvin’s six yards/catch average was lowest in football among receivers with 2 catches/game. Many Hawks fans, myself included, would have liked to see more downfield opportunities for Harvin rather than force-feeding him the ball on behind-the-line stuff that never fully materialized, and Harvin expressed that same sentiment in his recent presser with the Jets.
But, in moving on from Harvin, Seattle gets to re-discover an offensive identity that is not as sexy, not as flashy, but is definitely more productive. And that philosophy showed up in the second half of the Rams game. Seattle picked up 4 of 5 third downs, Doug Baldwin thrived back in his slot receiver role, Lynch was an instant factor, and Wilson used that to his advantage by making all types of incredible plays that only he can make.
That is who the Seahawks truly are on offense. They’re about giving Lynch the ball early and often, utilizing the play-fake for Wilson’s benefit to throw or run, allowing their “pedestrian” receivers to make plays, and put up points.
It sounds simple in theory. But I truly believe that by becoming more simple and more fundamental without Harvin, the Seattle offense will be able to breathe again, and experience more third-down and red-zone success in much the same way as they did in the second half at St Louis.
FINAL TAKEAWAY
Seattle has already matched their loss total from a year ago. And no, they probably won’t go 10-0 the rest of the way. But for being 3-3 and in third place in the NFC West, there is still reason for optimism. The pass rush will improve – it can’t get any worse! The turnovers will come, and games against the Panthers, Giants, and Raiders in the next three weeks could open the floodgates. Marshawn Lynch will be fed the rock, and Russell Wilson can make his trademark plays on a more regular basis. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse can prove the doubters wrong, and Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood can make their initial impressions felt.
The Hawks also have their division destiny in their own hands, with two games each against the Cardinals and Niners and one more vs the Rams.
As Russell Wilson says: “Adversity is opportunity…There’s no better place to be than when your back is against the wall.” That mindset will help the Seahawks moving on from a brutal first six games. The road to the playoffs will still be tough, but I wouldn’t be surprised to look back on Week 7 as a turnaround for a Seattle team that found a way to do something special in 2014-15.