Plenty of surprises throughout both conferences have headlined on-field play through four weeks in the National Football League.
Few conclusions can be deducted from the first four weeks of any NFL season, and the 2014 version is no different. How many can raise their hands for predicting the 3-1 start of the Dallas Cowboys, the 1-3 shortcomings of the New Orleans Saints, the suddenly bleak future of the New England Patriots, or the futility of the Jacksonville Jaguars? Ok, maybe not the last one, but the point stands: through Week Four, there are many more significant surprises than affirmed predictions. All this means is that there is another intriguing three quarters of an NFL regular season ahead of us. But before jumping ahead in the on-field narrative, let’s give a concise team-by-team recap from the opening quarter of 2014. Where are a team’s areas of concern? Of surprise? Of possible excellence? And what can be anticipated by the halftime break of Week 8? Let’s take a look at the teams in each division, starting with the most surprising.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC SOUTH
Standings:
Carolina (2-2) Atlanta (2-2) New Orleans (1-3) Tampa Bay (1-3)
Carolina Panthers (2-2)
W @ Tampa Bay, W vs Detroit, L vs Pittsburgh, L @ Baltimore
Next 4: vs Chicago, @ Cincinnati, @ Green Bay, vs Seattle
Where to start with the Panthers? Aside from running backs that have no capacity to sustain health and a dynamic quarterback whose playmaking capabilities are constantly hindered by aching ribs, a shaky offensive line, and zero running game, the biggest surprise (for me) has been the inconsistency of the defense. This is a team that shut down Tampa Bay in Week One, and followed that up with an impressive effort by holding the Detroit Lions to just 7 points in Week Two. But, just as soon as people started recanting their predictions of regression for Carolina, they go out in front of a National TV Audience, at home, and get shred by LeVeon Bell & Co., only to be followed up with the embarrassment to Steve Smith Sr. and the far-from-vaunted Ravens offense last week. Even with Greg Hardy, that run defense would be shaky. Currently ranking 27th in football in run defense (140.8 yds/game), the pass rush is still there (13th: 8 sacks), but the consistency is not. Again, this isn’t even dealing with the lackluster Carolina offense, whose biggest bright spot is rookie wide-receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin has displayed shaky hands on simple routes, but continues to impress with his jump-ball skills and physical prowess against one-on-one coverage. Carolina’s biggest concern going forward is their upcoming schedule, with the Bears, Bengals, Packers, and Seahawks all due up. Though just Cincy and Seattle can exploit the run D weakness, it is far from easy to stay up with the passing attacks in Chicago and Green Bay. Good luck, Carolina.
Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
W vs New Orleans, L @ Cincinnati, W vs Tampa Bay, L @ Minnesota
Next 4: @ New York Giants, vs Chicago, @ Baltimore, vs Detroit (London)
Speaking of inconsistent…
Matt Ryan at home: 52/67; 77.6 %; 6 TD, 0 INT, 2-0 Record
Matt Ryan on road: 49/85; 57.6 %; 4 TD, 5 INT, 0-2 Record
Disclaimer: The Cincy defense (road loss #1) is elite, and Minnesota’s (road loss #2) defense is better than people think. And this is an O-Line that has been so depleted by injury (starting LT Sam Baker, then RT-LT Jake Matthews, and three others have already gone down) that TE Levine Toilolo got snaps last week at Right Tackle! Keeping Matt Ryan upright is a MUST for the Atlanta offense to avoid the debacle that was 2013. That might be challenging enough, especially with an insignificant running game and porous defense that is now also down starting safety William Moore. What’s more? The Falcons offense, so vaunted in the Georgia Dome, gets only one home game between now and Week Eleven (Nov. 23). After hosting the Bears in Week 6, Atlanta’s next “home” game comes in London against Detroit in Week 8, followed by a bye week and two road games. For Matt Ryan enthusiasts, this stretch should be cause for alarm. If Atlanta can sustain their 440 yds/game offensive output – which tops the NFL ranks through Week Four – they’ll be in playoff contention. Chances are, though, they won’t.
New Orleans Saints (1-3)
L @ Atlanta, L @ Cleveland, W vs Minnesota, L @ Dallas
Next 4: vs Tampa Bay, Bye, @ Detroit, vs Green Bay
Um…
I’ll start here: The following list is the end-of-season rank (Yds/game) for defenses coordinated by Rob Ryan since he began as an NFL DC in 2004: 30th, 27th, 3rd, 22nd, 27th, 31st, 22nd, 14th, 19th, 4th (2013 Saints).
Conclusion: Rob Ryan is not as good as his hair suggests! Also, last year was an aberration, Jairus Byrd continues to play receivers instead of the ball, Keenan Lewis has no help on the edges, and there is no pass rush.
Also, for a team striving to achieve balance in the running and passing games, the loss of Mark Ingram was tough. Ingram showed renewed power and consistency on the ground in Weeks One and Two, averaging 71 yds/game and an NFL-best 6.0 yards/carry among RB’s with at least 24 total carries before suffering a thumb injury in Week Two at Cleveland. I expected the Saints to revert to their old pass-happy scheme in Week 3 at home vs Minnesota, but they didn’t, and snuck out a 20-9 win before getting run at Big D the following week. Ingram hopes to return within the next two weeks, and it will be interesting to see if Sean Payton stays faithful to a balance in play calls, or if desperate times call for a more aggressive Saints-style pass game. A home game vs the Bucs followed with a bye week is just what the doctor ordered for a Saints team reeling from the shock of 3 losses by Week 5, but still in the thick of an NFC South Division that won’t be hailing a division champ anytime soon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
L vs Carolina, L vs St Louis, L @ Atlanta, W @ Pittsburgh
Next 4: @ New Orleans, vs Baltimore, Bye, vs Minnesota
There are some teams in football that are more frustrating to watch than others, and the Bucs can fit right on the top of that list. Before the season, thinking that the Buccaneers had a shot to compete in the NFC South was quite rational. Gerald McCoy is an annual candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, LaVonte David is as steady as they come at MLB, and Michael Johnson might be the most underrated pass-rusher in football, not to mention the acquisition of playmaking cornerback Alterraun Verner from Tennessee. Add Lovie Smith, brain behind the tough Bears defense in the opening decade of the 21st Century, with a history in Tampa with Tony Dungy, and Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Logan Mankins on the offensive side of the ball.
And yet, the Bucs stink. The defense is incredibly disappointing, Josh McCown proved to be a simple Trestman product from 2013, Doug Martin is no longer a playmaker, and McCoy is already banged up. Now, that win in Pittsburgh last week is enough to be optimistic about the future. Mike Glennon looked as good as a 50-percent passer can, and despite his fumbling woes, Bobby Rainey looks quite nice in the backfield. It is unfortunate to be without a first-year offensive coordinator in Jeff Tedford, who was absent in September due to health issues, but the next few weeks are intriguing for the Bucs. Tampa plays their third straight road game this Sunday at New Orleans, but then get to stay close for a while with a pair of games in Tampa sandwiched around a bye week. It is no longer a 10-win sneaky playoff team, but they should show improvement moving forward.
NFC SOUTH PROJECTED Standings through Week 8:
New Orleans Saints: 3-4
Atlanta Falcons: 3-5
Carolina Panthers: 3-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-5
NFC EAST
Standings:
Philadelphia (3-1) Dallas (3-1) New York Giants (2-2) Washington (1-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
W vs Jacksonville, W @ Indianapolis, W vs Washington, L @ San Francisco
Next 4: vs St Louis, vs New York Giants, Bye, @ Arizona
After digging a 17-point-deficit to the Jags to open 2014, the Philadelphia Eagles broke out offensively in the 2nd half of Week One and carried that momentum through their Week 3 victory over Washington. Darren Sproles’ versatility and value in the Chip Kelly offense was on full-display in their Week 2 Monday Night win in Indy, and while LeSean McCoy got off to a good start, the entire running game has been held ineffective in recent weeks. This is not because McCoy and Sproles are suddenly, shall we say, bad, but because the key to the Kelly offense – the offensive line – is incredibly depleted. The Eagles had the injury gods smile upon them last season, keeping their starting five intact for every single game – the only NFL team to have that fortune. This year, though, they’ve had no such luck. Pro Bowl Center Jason Kelce went down early in the year, as did guard Evan Mathis, which sent veteran Todd Herremens from Right Guard to Right Tackle. Things are looking up in this department, as the Eagles get 2nd-year man Lane Johnson returning to Right Tackle after serving a four-game suspension, moving Herremens back to Guard and Jason Peters back to Left Tackle. Philly is hopeful that Kelce can return mid-season, and that the dominant running attack will return with it.
Nick Foles is the wild card to the Eagles’ season. Philly already has an iffy defense with no pass rush and shaky secondary, which puts added emphasis on offensive possession and – of course – scoring. Foles, though, has missed a ton of throws this year, but has hit on enough big plays to keep the scoring totals high. Jeremy Maclin is still healthy (for now), and though Riley Cooper fights off the football every chance he gets, rookie wideout Jordan Matthews has been quite the reliable slot man early in the season, as has Philly’s top pass-catching tight end, Zach Ertz. But Foles and the Philly offense was simply nowhere to be found against San Francisco last week, and must improve in coming weeks if they hope to stay atop the NFC East. Two home games and a bye week are in store for Kelly’s club, so Cary Williams and the rest of the 30-somethings can get plenty of rest before they travel to the desert to take on the Cardinals.
Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
L vs San Francisco, W @ Tennessee, W @ St Louis, W vs New Orleans
Next 4: vs Houston, @ Seattle, vs New York Giants, vs Washington
How bout them Cowboys? After one half of football agains the Niners in Week One, many people (myself included) wrote off the Cowboys and their no-name defense. Turns out, Rod Marinelli is a MUCH better defensive coordinator than I thought, and Scott Linehan is going against every natural bone in his body to go Run-heavy with DeMarco Murray. Linehan put together the passing attacks in Detroit and St Louis prior to coming to Dallas this year, but now he’s flipped the script, and it’s working beautifully. Though I don’t think the oft-injured Murray can continue at this pace (on-pace for 396 carries this year!) but the idea is right: with a below-average defense, the ‘Boys must control the game on the ground, let Romo throw 25-30 times a game, and make winning plays. Dallas has done all of that, including an impressive showing last Sunday Night against New Orleans. And that offensive line is easily top-3 in the league, and might be the best in all of football, which makes it that much easier to keep pounding the rock. With three out of the next four games at home and a road game in Seattle, I could see Dallas as high as 6-2 by Week 8, though 5-3 may be a better expectation. Regardless, that is right in the thick of the NFC East race halfway through the season.
New York Giants (2-2)
L @ Detroit, L vs Arizona, W vs Houston, W @ Washington
Next 4: vs Atlanta, @ Philadelphia, @ Dallas, Bye
Patience is a virtue. And between Eli Manning and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, there’s been plenty of it for Big Blue. After looking average at best in Week One at Detroit, Manning bounced back with a solid Week 2 showing vs Arizona, though dropped passes by receivers doomed the offense’s momentum. Between a Rashad Jennings breakout Week 3 and the receivers catching Manning’s quick throws, the Giants offense officially looks like it knows how to run its West-coast scheme. Their defense is still average, maybe slightly better, but just like the Cowboys, when they are at their best they can control the clock and convert 1st Downs at a high percentage. New York should feast on the meager Atlanta defense this week, then face their biggest challenge yet with a pair of divisional road games at Philly and at Dallas before they hit the bye. We are going to learn A LOT about the Giants by Week 8.
Washington Redskins (1-3)
L @ Houston, W vs Jacksonville, L @ Philadelphia, L @ New York Giants
Next 4: vs Seattle, @ Arizona, vs Tennessee, @ Dallas
The quarterback position has dominated D.C. sports talk for 3 years running now, and the topic-du-jour is – yet again – is Kirk Cousins better for the Jay Gruden offense than is Robert Griffin III? Differing styles aside, quarterbacks have to be able to make quick, smart decisions with the football, and then execute the throws. Cousins has shown the ability to make all sorts of throws (especially in his 400-yard performance at Philadelphia in Week 3), but more importantly, he has shown a bad tendency to turn the football over. His 5 turnovers last week at home against New York was a perfect heat-check from the week prior, but it doesn’t get any easier for Cousins, who goes up against the Seattle Seahawks next Monday night. Alfred Morris needs to take center stage for Washington, whose defense won’t be bailing them out of any low-scoring games anytime soon. This is make-or-break time for Washington, and I see them breaking before the halfway point.
NFC EAST PROJECTED Standings through Week 8:
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-2
Dallas Cowboys: 5-3
New York Giants: 4-3
Washington Redskins: 2-6
NFC NORTH
Standings:
Detroit (3-1) Minnesota (2-2) Green Bay (2-2) Chicago (2-2)
Detroit Lions (3-1)
W vs New York Giants, L @ Carolina, W vs Green Bay, W @ New York Jets
Next 4: vs Buffalo, @ Minnesota, vs New Orleans, @ Atlanta (London)
It’s hard not to like the Lions through 4 weeks. Their passing game looks dynamic (when Megatron is healthy), their defensive line is crushing the pocket on a regular basis, and their patchwork secondary held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 7 points in Week 3! Much has been made of Matthew Stafford’s slighter frame and increased agility to make plays outside the pocket, but it’s been his decision-making that has also improved early in 2014. Without captain (and former iron man) and linebacker Stephen Tulloch, there will be increased pressure on the Lions secondary, which currently ranks 2nd in the league in pass defense and 1st in overall defense. I’d be stunned if that ranking held up, even though they play the Bills and Vikes in their next two matchups, dealing with New Orleans and Atlanta across the pond will still challenge them to maintain that level of play. Regardless, the Lions are up a game on Green Bay and Chicago and have four winnable games coming up on their schedule.
Still To Come….
Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
W @ St Louis, L vs New England, L @ New Orleans, W vs Atlanta
Next 4: @ Green Bay, vs Detroit, @ Buffalo, @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay Packers (2-2)
L @ Seattle, W vs New York Jets, L @ Detroit, W @ Chicago
Next 4: vs Minnesota, @ Miami, vs Carolina, @ New Orleans
Chicago Bears (2-2)
L vs Buffalo, W @ San Francisco, W @ New York Jets, L vs Green Bay
Next 4: @ Carolina, @ Atlanta, vs Miami, @ New England
PROJECTED NFC NORTH Standings through Week 8:
Detroit Lions: 6-2
Green Bay Packers: 5-3
Chicago Bears: 5-3
Minnesota Vikings: 3-5
NFC WEST
Standings:
Arizona (3-0) Seattle (2-1) San Francisco (2-2) St Louis (1-3)
Arizona Cardinals (3-0)
W vs San Diego, W @ New York Giants, W vs San Francisco, Bye
Next 4: @ Denver, vs Washington, @ Oakland, vs Philadelphia
Seattle Seahawks (2-1)
W vs Green Bay, L @ San Diego, W vs Denver, Bye
Next 4: @ Washington, vs Dallas, @ St Louis, @ Carolina
San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
W @ Dallas, L vs Chicago, L @ Arizona, W vs Philadelphia
Next 4: vs Kansas City, @ St Louis, @ Denver, Bye
St Louis Rams (1-3)
L vs Minnesota, W @ Tampa Bay, L vs Dallas, Bye
Next 4: @ Philadelphia, vs San Francisco, vs Seattle, @ Kansas City
PROJECTED NFC WEST Standings Through Week 8:
Arizona Cardinals: 6-1
Seattle Seahawks: 6-1
San Francisco 49ers: 3-4
St Louis Rams: 2-6
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
AFC EAST
Standings:
Buffalo (2-2) Miami (2-2) New England (2-2) New York Jets (1-3)
Buffalo Bills (2-2)
W @ Chicago, W vs Miami, L vs San Diego, L @ Houston
Next 4: @ Detroit, vs New England, vs Minnesota, @ New York Jets
Miami Dolphins (2-2)
W vs New England, L @ Buffalo, L vs Kansas City, W @ Oakland (London)
Next 4: Bye, vs Green Bay, @ Chicago, @ Jacksonville
New England Patriots (2-2)
L @ Miami, W @ Minnesota, W vs Oakland, L @ Kansas City
Next 4: vs Cincinnati, @ Buffalo, vs New York Jets, vs Chicago
New York Jets (1-3)
W vs Oakland, L @ Green Bay, L vs Chicago, L vs Detroit
Next 4: @ San Diego, vs Denver, @ New England, vs Buffalo
PROJECTED AFC EAST Standings Through Week 8:
Buffalo Bills: 4-4
New England Patriots: 4-4
Miami Dolphins: 3-5
New York Jets: 2-6
AFC SOUTH
Standings:
Houston (3-1) Indianapolis (2-2) Tennessee (1-3) Jacksonville (0-4)
Houston Texans (3-1)
W vs Washington, W @ Oakland, L @ New York Giants, W vs Buffalo
Next 4: @ Dallas, vs Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh, @ Tennessee
Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
L @ Denver, L vs Philadelphia, W @ Jacksonville, W vs Tennessee
Next 4: vs Baltimore, @ Houston, vs Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee Titans (1-3)
W @ Kansas City, L vs Dallas, L @ Cincinnati, L @ Indianapolis
Next 4: vs Cleveland, vs Jacksonville, @ Washington, vs Houston
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
L @ Philadelphia, L @ Washington, L vs Indianapolis, L @ San Diego
Next 4: vs Pittsburgh, @ Tennessee, vs Cleveland, vs Miami
PROJECTED AFC SOUTH Standings Through Week 8:
Houston Texans: 5-3
Indianapolis Colts: 5-3
Tennessee Titans: 3-5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6
AFC NORTH
Standings:
Cincinnati (3-0) Baltimore (3-1) Pittsburgh (2-2) Cleveland (1-3)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)
W @ Baltimore, W vs Atlanta, W vs Tennessee, Bye
Next 4: @ New England, vs Carolina, @ Indianapolis, vs Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
L vs Cincinnati, W vs Pittsburgh, W @ Cleveland, W vs Carolina
Next 4: @ Indianapolis, @ Tampa Bay, vs Atlanta, @ Cincinnati
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
W vs Cleveland, L @ Baltimore, W @ Carolina, L vs Tampa Bay
Next 4: @ Jacksonville, @ Cleveland, vs Houston, vs Indianapolis
Cleveland Browns (1-2)
L @ Pittsburgh, W vs New Orleans, L vs Baltimore, Bye
Next 4: @ Tennessee, vs Pittsburgh, @ Jacksonville, vs Oakland
PROJECTED AFC NORTH Standings Through Week 8:
Cincinnati Bengals: 6-1
Baltimore Ravens: 5-3
Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-4
Cleveland Browns: 3-4
AFC WEST
Standings:
San Diego (3-1) Denver (2-1) Kansas City (2-2) Oakland (0-4)
San Diego Chargers (3-1)
L @ Arizona, W vs Seattle, W @ Buffalo, W vs Jacksonville
Next 4: vs New York Jets, @ Oakland, vs Kansas City, @ Denver
Denver Broncos (2-1)
W vs Indianapolis, W vs Kansas City, L @ Seattle, Bye
Next 4: vs Arizona, @ New York Jets, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
L vs Tennessee, L @ Denver, W @ Miami, W vs New England
Next 4: @ San Francisco, Bye, @ San Diego, vs St Louis
Oakland Raiders (0-4)
L @ New York Jets, L vs Houston, L @ New England, L vs Miami (London)
Next 4: Bye, vs San Diego, vs Arizona, @ Cleveland
PROJECTED AFC WEST Standings Through Week 8:
Denver Broncos: 6-1
San Diego Chargers: 6-2
Kansas City Chiefs: 4-3
Oakland Raiders: 1-6