Sam’s Safe Space For Soccer Stoolies – 2016-17 Season Preview & Pick’em
Hi haters!
You did it. Give yourself a hand, you deserve it. You have officially survived the summer break. The Euros and Copa America helped pass the time, and the Olympics have helped carry us down the home stretch. But bright and early Saturday morning the EPL season kicks off and, yep, we’re doing boners.
All due respect Feitelberg but this #SaturdayIsForTheBoners
In fact, I’m too damn excited to do anything but get right to the good stuff… but Mike Portnoy required me to include some words of warning about the picks and previews contained herein:
• Only an idiot would make predictions about how the season is going to play out before the transfer window closes on August 31
• Thankfully I am an idiot
• Do me a solid though and keep in mind that last minute transfers (in and/or out) could alter the balance of power
Now that that’s out of the way let’s get to it…
[NOTE: any n00bs interested in getting into the EPL this season but have yet to pick a team, don’t worry, here’s a minimally invasive guide to help assist you in settling on one: Barstool Guide to Picking an EPL Club]
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2015-16 RECAP
I was about to write a little summary of last season but then realised I already did just that, so for anybody looking to brush up on what happened just follow this handy dandy link.
In short, Leicester were unconscionably good, most of the normal title contenders were surprisingly bad (especially Chelsea), and after flirting with disaster here and there over the years Newcastle (again) and Aston Villa (for the first time ever) got dumped into the Championship.
For those who can’t quite recall, the final few weeks of last season were rather tame, making it two seasons in a row that most of the important stuff has been settled well before the final weekend, which means we are due for another finish like 2011-12 sometime soon.
[Note: this is also what we like to call “foreshadowing” in the “journalism” biz]
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STORYLINES
As always, there are a million interesting storylines that will be worth following going into the season. Here are just a few to keep your eye on:
1) Embarrassment of managing riches
I mean, that pic says it all, and it doesn’t even include Claudio Ranieri, who lead Leicester to the single most improbably spectacular season in sports history. Mourinho versus Pep will inevitably attract the most attention, but that is a godamn murderer’s row of managers if ever there was one.
2) Is Chelsea back?
Unfortunately the answer is probably yes, so do the world a favor and remind the hell out of any Chelsea fans you are dumb enough to be friends with about the double-digit position they finished in last season while you still can.
3) Who is the “new Leicester”?
Oh for fuck’s sake. Every know-nothing pundit is going to ask himself this question and blather on about this club or that and why they might be this season’s “Leicester” but here is the fact of the matter: NOBODY is going to be this season’s Leicester. Easy peasy.
5) Speaking of Leicester, what can we expect?
T’was a magical season. Can’t take that away from the Foxes. But that was then, this is now, and the EPL can be an incredible unforgiving league to play in. The sale of N’Golo Kante and possible departure of Riyad Mahrez will and would be huge losses. Plus the club will have a far more congested schedule thanks to Champions League. So a step back in inevitable………… right?
5) Will somebody have the balls to call for Klopp’s head in September?
Yoooooooooooooooo, that is a straight up BRUTAL opening stretch of games, especially considering that four of the five are AWAY from home.
6) Will any of the n00bs stick around?
No disrespect to the clubs that earned their way into this season’s top flight, but on paper this is one of the weaker newly promoted “classes” that I can remember. That said, one of the three appears to have a notably better shot at survival.
7) Will it be back to business as usual for “The Big Four”?
I’ll be honest, I included this question primarily because I find it amusing how pissed off Liverpool fans get about not being included. But it is also a legitimate query. Two of the four – United and Chelsea – had their “rightful” spots snagged by Leicester and Spurs last season, meaning no Champions League for them this time around. Missing out on the money and cache that are part and parcel to the continental competition for a second season in a row would be a massive, massive failure.
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PREDICTIONS
So as a quick reminder, here is how the clubs finished last season (I couldn’t find one from week 38 so I just grabbed the one from after week 37 – not much changed so anybody making a big deal about it is probably just angry about their micropenis):
And this is the order in which the oddmakers currently have them finishing:
One thing you almost can’t hope but notice: bookies aren’t offering 5000/1 odds on anybody… not even close this season, meaning that The Leicester Effect – whereby ever Tom, Dick and Harry is throwing some money on their crap team to win the league juuuuuuust innnnnnnn caaaaaaaase – is in full swing.
[Now for the fun part………….. pissing a bunch of people off]
To make things cleaner and more aesthetically pleasing, let’s split the 20 clubs into categories similar to what I used in this week’s Guide to Picking an EPL Club post (albeit with some clubs switched around). Why? Because that’s what I did last year and I am a creature of habit, that’s why.
The groups (with teams listed alphabetically within them so as not to give away where exactly I’m predicting them to finish) are:
PLUGS
Hull City
Burnley
MUDDLERS
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Middlesbrough
Southampton
Sunderland
Swansea
Watford
West Brom
OPPONENTS
Everton
Leicester City
Stoke
West Ham
CHALLENGERS
Arsenal
Chelsea
City
Liverpool
Tottenham
United
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PLUGS
Look, no offence to either of these clubs who deserve credit for earning their way back to the big time this year but unless they make some serious moves using financial resources that I don’t think they have, it’s going to be a long season for (20) HULL CITY and (19) BURNLEY. We are two days away from kickoff and Hull City doesn’t even have a full-time manager for god’s sake. In fact, I’m just going to leave it at that.
Welcome aboard, lads! Hope you came prepared.
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MUDDLERS
If you haven’t picked up on it yet I’m going from bottom to top, meaning that the next club on the list is my pick for who will be the third and final “winner” of a one-way ticket to the Championship, with that club being……………………
(18) CRYSTAL PALACE: Okay, this was a tough one. I really, really tough one. I can’t help thinking that it is going to come down to them, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Swansea and West Brom… but in the end the (presumed) loss of Yannick Bolasie to Everton and a lack of suitable replacements might end up being the straw that sent the camel back to the Championship.
(17) SUNDERLAND: As I mentioned before, David Moyes is great at taking bad teams and making them okay, taking okay teams and making them good, and taking good teams and making them AWFUL. The Black Cats are not good and have done very little to improve their station in life, which is a solid formula for securing a place in the 2017-18 edition of the EPL by one point thanks to a disgusting and improbable 0-0 draw away to Chelsea on the last day of the season.
(16) BOURNEMOUTH: A tough team to gauge right now. For every bit of good luck that Leicester experienced last season, the Cherries got that much bad luck. Injuries galore decimated the squad and yet Eddie Howe managed to avoid getting sucked into the relegation scrap for most of the season. Picking up guys like Jordan Ibe from Liverpool will help but can’t help thinking the club may be ripe for a sophomore slump, which could cause Howe to pull a serious hell turn and jump ship for a greener pasture at some point (as unthinkable as that sounds right now).
(15) WEST BROM: New owner, same manager. Nobody – and I do mean nobody – is more comfortable playing atrociously ugly soccer and idling away in 15th place than Tony Pulis, so unless or until the new Chinese big swinging dick in WBA’s cracker factory decides to splash some cash and bring in a new ship captain, this will remain the easiest of all the predictions. Sticking around the EPL with no real hope of ever winning anything seems a lot like once-monthly coitus after you’ve been married for years (I assume). I mean, congrats on the sex and everything, but was it really even worth all that effort?
The life of a West Brom fan
(14) WATFORD: I’m on record as saying that the club’s decision to dump Quique Sanchez Flores this summer was a stupid move, so if they end up sinking into the relegation-threatened portion of the table it wouldn’t surprise me a bit. That said, the owners have shown a willingness to spend when need, so if they sell striker Odion Ighalo there will be a definite hole next to Troy Deeney up front.
(13) SWANSEA: Daniel and his new best bud Don Ovan now officially own the club, so I do want them to do well, but it is tough to get excited about the business they had done early in the transfer window. The losses of striker Andre Ayew (to West Ham) and stalwart defender Ashley Williams (to Everton) will be painful. That said, strikers Borja Baston (from Atletico Madrid) and possibly Fernando Llorente (from Sevilla) are both intriguing pickups, and should be enough with guys like Elfi Sigurdsson to avoid the drop.
(12) SOUTHAMPTON: If we’re being honest, I’m nervous about the Saints this season. It goes without saying that the loss of manager Ronald Koeman to Everton will be a huge problem, as he has done an incredible job of not only surviving but even thriving despite having to piece the club’s roster back together using leaves, sticks and chewing gum every summer after it has been raided by bigger clubs. The loss of striker Sadio Mane to Liverpool leaves a particularly critical hole.
(11) MIDDLESBROUGH: One of the founding members of the EPL back in 1992 but got relegated in 2008-09 and haven’t gotten a sniff of the big time since. The club clearly hopes to stick around a while this time, and has brought in some solid players in centerback Marten de Room (Atalanta), striker Alvaro Negredo (on loan from Valencia) and Mr. Clean himself, Brad Guzan (who will likely start out behind Victor Valdez). ‘Boro should be easily the best of the newly promoted clubs and has done a good bit of business this summer, which should help it get its feet wet and perhaps even stick around a while.
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<<<<<<<<<< HALFTIME >>>>>>>>>>
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Aight, we back.
OPPONENTS
At this point we have moved on to clubs that could or more likely should at least contend for things like secondary trophies (eg, FA Cup) or tertiary trophies (eg, League Cup), as well as for a Europe League slot and – if the cards fall jussssssssssst right – may even be able to make a run at a Champions League spot.
(10) EVERTON: I am bullish on the Toffees in the longer term, but am a little bearish on this particular season. Give Koeman a year or two and he will have them back in contention for at least Europa, but he there are too many holes for him to deal with and likely not enough time left in the window or candidates on the market for him to do all the business it would take to have them ready this season. Selling John Stones for (roughly $65 million) was the right thing to do at that price, and it seems like that Romelu Lukaku will head for the exit as well, meaning Everton need to add some pieces on both ends of the field. Bringing in Bolasie is okay but he tends to disappear for stretches and is not the physical force the club will be losing in Lukaku. (Note: this is one club who “predicted finish” could change dramatically over the next 20 days depending on what moves do/do not come to fruition.)
(9) LEICESTER: The Foxes will likely be the single most interesting club to follow this season. Kante and (possibly) Mahrez will be tough holes to fill, in fact I don’t think they will quite be able to make up for them (or even it if just Kante leaves), and striker Ahmed Musa should be a VERY good buy from CSKA Moscow. However, the fact remains the club was the beneficiary of a lot of good fortune last season in the form of hardly any injuries, and some good bounces (and propitious calls) here and there, which may not go the same way this time around. Perhaps my biggest for Leicester is at the back though, where Wes Morgan and Robert Huth had career years but are now 32 and 31 years old, which getting long in the tooth. Put it this way: they have the potential to finish anywhere between 5th and 15th but I think ultimately they’ll settle in somewhere in the bottom portion of the top half of the table.
Underestimate me at your peril, peon
(8) STOKE: The Potters’ Revolution continues apace this summer with purchases of midfielder Joe Allen (from Liverpool) and winger Ramadan Sobhi (from Al Ahly), who will continue to class the joint up a bit. With talents like Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Krkic, Afellay and the like, it’s hard not to like the direction in which Stoke is moving. I don’t see it being quite enough this season to win a spot in Europe, but they should be close enough to be in the mix. Good things are happening around our boy Geoff Cameron.
When you find out Shillary wasn’t indicted
(7) WEST HAM: The addition of striker Andre Ayew was a great move and should be a useful complement to Andy Carroll up top, which along with the Hammers’ returning talent should help the club avoid doing what it usually does just when things start looking up, which is to start sucking up the joint. This version of West Ham has a little bit different feel to it, if only because fear of manager Slaven Bilic will keep players in line.
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CHALLENGERS
“Leicester proved that everybody has a chance to win this puppy, right?”
Yep, nope. The big boys have cranked up their spending in order to ensure that things revert to “normal” this season (at least that’s the working hypothesis I am going with at the moment).
(6) LIVERPOOL: I’ll be honest, I was expecting more turnover in Klopp’s first summer transfer window in charge of the club. There have been a number of departures – eg, Jordan Ibe (Bournemouth), Joe Allen (Stoke) and Martin Skrtel (Fenerbahce) – but not nearly as many acquisitions as I would have thought… not yet anyway. Sadio Mane was a huge get and will be an ideal target for clever players like Coutinho, Lallana and (to a lesser extent) Henderson, especially if Daniel Sturridge can remain healthy for more than a game or two. However, the club has looked shaky at the back in preseason and Reds fans have been itching for a change at keeper for years. Klopp did bring in GK Loris Karius from Stuttgart, but old boy promptly broke his hand and doesn’t appear to be an obvious upgrade, and the club has not done nearly enough to shore up the backline… not yet anyway (again). Still got a few weeks to make some more changes. Have to imagine there are more moves to come.
Why they could win it: Klopp, Improved attack
Why they wouldn’t win it: Sturridge hammies, Defense
(5) ARSENAL: The Gunners are never a pushover but – and I say this as a person with a brain not as a Spurs fan – they look to be in weaker shape on paper than any time in recent memory at the moment. Arsene Venger finally splurged on the defensive midfielder they have long needed in Granit Xhaka, but the club has lost damn every centerback on the roster to injury this summer and have done nothing about the glaring hole up top that has been there ever since Karim Benzema never got off that “plane to London he was on” in the summer of 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and again in 2016. Newly signed defender Shkodan Mustafi is a good start, but unless/until the club does some more business this could (finally, according to many Gooners) be the season that Arsenal and Arsene finally go their separate ways.
Why they could win it: Youngsters step up (possible), To spite me (more likely)
Why they wouldn’t win it: Glaring holes in back and front
(4) CHELSEA: The most important thing new manager Antonio Conte will bring to the club – in addition to go-everywhere, do-everything midfielder N’Golo Kante – is a renewed sense of confidence. The Blues fell into a vicious cycle of mental midgetry last season, and barely looked like they wanted to be out on the field outside of their personal Super Bowl in May when they “won” an illustrious draw against mighty Spurs to end the latter’s title run. The club still has most of the pieces from its title run two seasons ago, and while certain players – eg, Terry, Ivanovic and Costa – may or should be on their way out soon, additions like Kante and striker Michy Batshuayi will help breath some new life into the club.
Why they could win it: Latent talent + Conte’s confidence
Why they wouldn’t win it: Mancunian billion$, Diego Costa burns the place down on his way out the door
(3) TOTTENHAM: The club dominated England’s roster for the Euros but more or less took the entire tournament off so should be well rested coming into the season – rimshot! The squad is going to look remarkably similar to last season, led by Kane, Alli, Lamela, Dembele, Dier and what might be the strongest back five (defenders plus Hugo) in the league, and this cohesiveness is going to be Spurs’ biggest asset against some of the other big clubs that will just be learning how to play with one another. Also, Pochettino. The biggest question mark is whether someone like Vincent Janssen (signed from AZ Alkmaar) can complement and take some of the pressure off Kane up top. A second striker just might be enough for Spurs to make another run at the title, with the inevitable questions then becoming how and when they will ultimately implode and break my heart (again for the millionth time).
Why they could win it: Continuity
Why they wouldn’t win it: Spursiness, Mancunian billion$
(2) UNITED: The amount of talent Jose Mourinho and his paymasters brought in this summer is just silly. New additions include Eric Bailly at the back, Paul Pogba in the middle and Zlatan up top, and perhaps the shrewdest buy of all will end up being midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Borussia Dortmund. The club also has the “benefit” of not playing Champions League, which could allow them to be better rested for the domestic slate. In fact, the only things going against the Red Devils this season are [1] the fact it usually takes Mourinho one season to impart his “system” and [2] the talent and personalities will take some time to mesh and acclimatize to the EPL, while a lack of minutes for some players could cause internal strife. If it sounds a little like I’m grasping at straws that’s probably because I am. United is stacked, though Galactico-like teams have been known to stumble sometimes (eg, 2005-06 Real Madrid).
Why they could win it: Talent, talent and more talent
Why they wouldn’t win it: Mourinho can’t find the marbles he lost last season (unlikely), Growing pains (possible)
“Only” finished 2nd in Liga and “only” made R16 in UCL
(1) CITY: Try as I might, in the end I just couldn’t not go with City. They have stockpiled almost as much talent as United but have a less unhinged (and equally motivated) new manager in Pep Guardiola, who seems like a very good fit for getting the Sky Blues back on track. They also have a bit better mix of key players who have been around each other for one or more season – eg, Aguero, Silva, Toure, Sterling, De Bruyne, Kompany – to which they are adding some serious talents like defender John Stones, wingers Leroy Sane and Nolito, and (the underrated) center mid Ilkay Gundogan. I mean, seriously, it’s hard not to look at the two Manchester rosters and just shake your head.
Why they could win it: Talent, talent, more talent and Pep
Why they wouldn’t win it: Injuries, Bad Yaya poisons locker room
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RANDOM PRESEASON AWARDS
Player of the year: Mesut Ozil (edging out Dele Alli)
Comeback player of the year: Eden Hazard
Leading scorer: Sergio Aguero (edging out Harry Kane in a reversal of 2015-16)
Most underrated signing: Henrikh Mikhitaryan (edging out Ahmed Musa)
Biggest bust (new transfer): Paul Pogba – explanation: I don’t think Pogba is going to suck. Far from it. I think he will be okay this season and eventually be very good. However, I think he could struggle a bit in his first year in the EPL surrounded by so many other new faces at the club, which in a relative sense makes him a bust (for this season) because a player who costs $116 million should be expected to hit the ground running at full speed (a la Lexi Sanchez in 2014-15).
First manager fired: Tony Pulis (if only because Hull City has yet to name a full-time coach)
Zlatan – over/under 14.5 goals: UNDER
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So there you have it: the greatest 2016-17 EPL preview & betting guide that Barstool will ever post in the history of forever. In case you are feeling sad about saying goodbye now and have begun worrying about how much you are going to miss me… don’t. I’ll be back with a far, far, far, far, far, far shorter weekend preview post tomorrow.
Very soooooooooooooooooooooon
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