Boys and girls the PGA Tour is RED HOT right now. Mexico City absolutely delivered last week — intriguing golf course, great drama, big names, and the no. 1 ranked player in the world walked away with the hardware. Simply put last week was a massive success by all measures, much like the first 2+ months of this calendar year.
When the Tour decided to move the WGC event from Trump Doral to Mexico, there were many skeptics. I was one. Thought it was a WILD move; why the hell would you take the Tour from Miami to Mexico?
I was wrong.
But enough of Mexico — we’re onto Tampa. This year we’ve seen golf’s young guns rack up W’s in droves. From Justin Thomas to Rickie Fowler to Jon Rahm to Jordan Spieth to Dustin Johnson (at 32, he’s just entering golf’s traditional “prime” age), it’s been fun to watch. Expect that to continue this week.
The Event
The Valspar began in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Classic. Obviously money is a huge thing now, sponsorship is king, so we’re no longer just the “[insert local city] Classic”; we’re the Valspar Chamionship.
From its inception through 2013, the tourney struggled retaining sponsorship. PODS, for example, signed a 6-year title sponsor deal in 2007, only to exercise their option to withdraw in 2008.
Valspar eventually landed as the title sponsor in September 2013 and recently signed a 3-year extension. A very trusted source of mine (just random buddy that works for the Tour) told me the Valspar is one of the steadier, healthier, more profitable events. Probably helps that Spieth dramatized it with that heroic playoff win during his 2015 tear.
History
Nobody’s won the Valspar more than twice (KJ Choi, Retief Goosen). Charl Schwartzel is our defending champ (he had to withdraw from the pro-am today because his playing partner hit him with a shot).
The venue traditionally produces final-round drama: 7 of the last 8 years our winner won by 1 stroke or in a playoff (Schwartzel won in a playoff over Bill Haas last year).
The Track
Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course is universally praised by the players. At 7,340 yards, with a par 71, it’s a very, very difficult but fair test. Last year — and in 2014 — the winning score was just 7-under (for comparison, last year Danny Willett won the Masters at 5-under, DJ won the U.S. Open at 4-under, Stenson won the British at 20-under, and Jimmy Walker won the PGA at 14-under). Again, it’s a tough golf course.
In 2008, Sean O’Hair won at just 4-under here. Guys simply don’t win regular Tour events at 4-under.
Notable Holes
I have to mention that I’ve played here before. I do a Ryder Cup style event every year with 24 of my buddies from college; two years ago we did Innisbrook. It was awesome and I LOVE the Copperhead Course; while everyone wants to talk about the Snake Pit (16, 17, 18) — and we will — I also think there are a few other holes worth singling out.
1st — par 5 — 560 yards
I want to put the first in here because it’s a very important birdie hole. This course doesn’t yield a ton of birdie opportunities, so guys starting on 1 are REALLY going to want to put a 4 or better on the card to kick off the day. Anything else is a disappointing start, especially when under par scores are tough to find.
3rd — par 4 — 455 yards
LOVE this hole. It’s eerily similar to the tough 16th, just slightly shorter but more punishing on the left side. The water hugs the right, just like 16, but hedges and bushes up the left really eliminate much of a bailout. You’ll see a lot of guys pulling the chicken stick to ensure something in play here.
Great hole.
16th — par 4 — 475 yards
16 is HARD and plays a pivotal role down the stretch. As you can see from the pic, water hugs the entire right side. If you bail out left, there’s sand, tree trouble, and a longer approach into this tough green.
When I played here I ripped one left behind a tree, topped a hero escape attempt, pooched one into the middle of the green and three-jacked for double. Like I said, it’s a tough hole.
Also has this creepy ass serpent on the tee.
17th — par 3 — 215 yards
That green is a pretty damn small target for 215. Damn small.
18th — par 4 — 445 yards
Excellent finishing hole. A medium-length, uphill par 4 with the green sitting a bit left. Lots of guys will pull something like a 3-wood to get it in play here, as there are plenty of fairway bunkers and thick rough, then come in with a mid to short-iron into this elevated green.
Spieth famously buried this walk-off playoff birdie in 2015.
After this GUTSY up-and-down to get into the playoff on the 72nd.
Hole almost always delivers the drama.
Also, don’t miss the Original Hooters tent between 12 and 13.
The Field
A lot of the game’s biggest names are not here this week, but there are still plenty of notable guys. Henrik Stenson, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, Matt Kuchar, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk are all teeing it up.
Also Smylie Kaufman (featured on this week’s episode of the no. 1 golf podcast in the world “Fore Play”), Wesley Bryan (also featured on last week’s episode of the no. 1 golf podcast in the world “Fore Play”), Ollie Schniederjans and Willy Wilcox (you guessed it, both featured in past episodes).
Here are some betting odds.
Predictions
Winning Score: -12
Winner: Justin Thomas
Here’s the logic from Anonymous DM guy:
Coming from those horrible greens in Mexico City to the tif eagle greens that are in Florida is gonna be a blessing to the fans and players who played at the WGC. Having played Innisbrook it’s a tough course but it is also a favorite to the younger guys. My first pick is the favorite, Justin Thomas +900. Favorites have won 7 of the last 10 so it would be a mistake not to take the favorite if this trend continues.
DFL: Steven Bowditch
Dark Horse: Wesley Bryan (40-1!!)
Here’s the logic from Anonymous DM guy:
Also like Wesley Bryan +4000. You don’t get odds like that with a guy who contends on back to back weekends. Add in the fact he took last weekend off and stayed in Florida to play some of those course you have to like.
Clubhouse
I don’t have a picture but like I said I’ve been there — for such a massive, pretty sweet resort, the clubhouse stinks. Just too much going on, too many courses, didn’t hone in on one badass clubhouse. A real shame. There’s a massive entrance/lobby to the entire resort but that doesn’t count.
Innisbrook Clubhouse: 4.8.
Coverage
Thursday & Friday: Golf Channel 2-6PM
Saturday & Sunday: Golf Channel 1-3PM; NBC 3-6PM
Final Thoughts
Check out this week’s “Fore Play” with Sylie Kaufman. In my opinion our best episode yet.
And buy a shirt.
And maybe a towel.
Enjoy Tampa.