Group B in Olympic men’s basketball is officially drunk. We saw Argentina and Brazil play the best game of the Olympics, Spain finally look like Spain against Lithuania of all teams and then Nigeria pull out one of the biggest upsets in Olympic basketball history. Argentina/Brazil lived up to the hype that everyone was giving it. The crowd was wild from the get go and Andres Noicioni turned into LeBron James and the best player in the world. For Argentina they now sit in prime position to win the group and avoid Team USA in the knockout round.
Spain decided to show up against Lithuania by absolutely beating the shit out of them. For Lithuania that loss can be massive as they had a chance to clinch Group B and the important factor of avoiding Team USA. For Spain the win ultimately ended up being huge thanks to Nigeria upsetting Croatia. If Spain would have lost this game, they’d still be on the outside looking in to the knockout stage. Nigeria was the story of the day though as they got just their second win in Olympic basketball history thanks to one of the best shooting displays I’ve ever seen. They hit 46 percent from deep, while holding Croatia to just 20 percent. Despite being down seven after the first quarter, Nigeria stuck to the gameplan of forcing Croatia to beat them from outside, protecting the rim and running a motion offense, they quickly took the lead in the second quarter.
So we move to the final games in Group A today with really just final places having to be set. So far the US, Australia and France all clinched a spot in the knockout round. Serbia can advance with a win or a loss by Venezuela while China is eliminated.
As always follow me @barstoolreags to let me know your picks, plays, thoughts and just shoot the general hoops shit.
USA vs France – 1:15 pm
Line: USA -18.5, (-5000), France +1300, 181.5
Preview: I wrote about 500 words on the US yesterday, but today will say a lot. They need to find their defense again, otherwise teams like France can give them some trouble. France has four guys that can shoot the ball in the starting lineup and a rim protector in Rudy Gobert. What I want to see though is how K handles this team. I’ve been critical of his coaching strategy these Olympics as he hasn’t pressed and his substitution patterns have been pretty bad. The US badly needs to a good game just to get their mental state right, especially a strong game from Klay Thompson. For France a loss doesn’t mean anything to them as they are locked into either the No. 2 or No. 3 spot out of Group A. That means they’ll be on Team USA’s side of the bracket regardless and with Group B so far up in the air, they can’t pick who they’d prefer to play. It wouldn’t shock me if they rest some of their players, especially if they get down early as there is some age with Boris Diaw and Tony Parker. USA needs to get Durant and Kyrie going early as France has struggled defensively so far in group play.
Pick: Call me a ride or die, I’m staying on Team USA. I’d like to think they can figure shit out and want to head into the knockout stage with some sort of momentum and getting a big win over France can do just that. I’d expect a strong start from USA so take a look at 1q or 1h line as well. Look for the advantage to happen when France subs out De Colo and Batum on the wings, resulting in a huge advantage for USA on the wing.
Venezuela vs Australia – 6:00 pm
Line: Australia -21 (-3300), Venezuela +1400, 151.5
Preview: Australia is likely locked into the No. 2 spot out of Group A as a loss by France seals that. So, look for them to not play Andrew Bogut again and likely rest Patty Mills and players like Joe Ingles late in the game. Venezuela on the other hand can still steal a spot in the knockout round, albeit a longshot. They need to win and have China beat Serbia in order to get the fourth spot. If you want to watch some fun basketball, watch Australia on offense. They do an excellent job of reading the defense, running backcuts and making the swing pass – a lot like the Princeton offense of old. Venezuela will do what they’ve done all tournament by slowing the pace down and playing physical, which is fine because Australia loves physical play as well.
Pick: I’m going to take Venezuela here as I think Australia will give their players a rest, especially if they know France loses to Team USA locking them into the No. 2 spot. There’s nothing they can do to improve their placement. Venezuela has struggled to score, but they should slow the pace down enough to keep it inside the number. Keep an eye out for reports of players sitting out after the USA/France game.
China vs Serbia – 9:30 pm
Line: Serbia -23.5 (-10000), China +1800, 160.5
Preview: The Serbs are coming off a more than impressive game against Team USA where they finally like Nikola Jokic play like Nikola Jokic. One of the problems I’ve had with international coaches is they don’t play their best players or lineup to start the game and try to get cute by playing a ‘defensive’ line up or something like that. Instead it backfires, making their team be out of rhythm and for the Serbs it usually means playing from behind like they did against France and the USA. The Serbs love getting up and down the court and are strong offensively, that shouldn’t change against China. Look for Teodosic and Bogdanovic to have big games as the Chinese simply can’t stick with them. Serbia has had two tough losses, giving up a Tony Parker fadeaway with 30 seconds to go against France and Bogdanovic missing a wide open three against USA.
Pick: I love the Serbs here as they’ll want to play a little pissed off and try to get up and down against China. As I said in the preview, Teodosic and Bogdanovic should have mismatches and be able to get into the paint and either kick it out for an open look or finish at the rim. Let’s see if the Serbian coach decides to play his best lineup to start or go with that defensive bullshit we’ve heard all Olympics.
Daily Fantasy Plays
Stefan Markovic $2700 – He’s way too cheap here to pass up. KMarko’s possible Serbian cousin has been pretty consistant so far as he’s put in around 10 points and four assists per game. I’ll take him at this price and load up on big name guys later.
David Andersen $5100 – Likely to get the start again for Australia with Andrew Bogut out, he’s a nice price that can get you 20 FPS with ease. He only plays between 15-20 minutes a game, but he’s constantly around 10 ppg and can get 5-6 rebounds.
Kevin Durant $9400 – Thanks to taking Markovic for cheap I can take Durant with no hesitation. This is a guy that has to get going for Team USA and he loves playing well in first quarters. Look for USA to go to him early and often.