The Washington Capitals won the Presidents’ Trophy with 120 points.
(Photo: Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports)
The 82-game regular season has come down 16 teams and two months of important hockey: the Stanley Cup playoffs.
What teams did in the past six months is irrelevant now. But it does inform what comes next. The following is a ranking of teams entering the playoffs, with health a factor.
1 – Washington Capitals. The Presidents’ Trophy winners have been the best team all season, and the Eastern Conference should be favorable for a run. They ranked second in goals per game, second in goals against, fifth in power-play percentage and third on the penalty kill. They have the only 50-goal scorer in the league (Alex Ovechkin), an underrated but effective defensive corps led by Matt Niskanen and John Carlson, and a goalie in Braden Holtby who has settled in as one of the best in the league. Their weakness? Maybe it’s the 11th-ranked score-adjusted possession. But even that’s nitpicking at 51.5%.
2 – Anaheim Ducks. An example that the process is more important than the results over the long haul. The Ducks began the year with a 1-7-2 record. They were a .500 team on Jan. 1. Now they’ve eclipsed the 100-point mark for the third year in a row. But we’ve seen this before, right? Don’t blame Bruce Boudreau. He is among the best bench bosses in the league. He has the Ducks sitting with the second-best possession rating in the league (53.1%). Since 2008, six of eight Cup teams have finished among the top five in possession, according to hockeyanalysis.com. Anaheim, with the 17th-ranked offense, has depth across the roster, and size and versatility to play the match-up game. The Ducks will win because of their ability to limit chances against.
3 – Pittsburgh Penguins. Mike Sullivan helped the Penguins soar to a 33-16-5 record once he took over. There’s a case to be made for the second spot on this list if Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury, who practiced Monday, were healthy. The Penguins control the flow (53.1% possession), and Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are dominating. What differentiates this group from the past is its structure and balance; no longer do its bottom two lines get caved in. The defense is now more average than the weak link. At least Letang can play 30 minutes per game. The roster is faster and more complete than it has been.
4 – Los Angeles Kings. For the fourth consecutive season, the Kings ended the regular season with the best possession rating, at 56.7%. There may not be a heavier team to play against than the Kings, who are a representation that you don’t have to be the best regular season team to win it all. Darryl Sutter has instilled a style that wins in the playoffs; basically stifle all offense against. Jonathan Quick doesn’t face exorbitant workloads as a result. Anze Kopitar dictates play in all three zones, while Drew Doughty will be in the mix for the Norris Trophy.
5 – St. Louis Blues. The playoffs will likely decide Ken Hitchcock’s fate as he’s failed to make it out of the first round three years in a row. His contract expires after the season. This might be his best team. Vladimir Tarasenko is one of the best scorers in the league. There’s depth down the middle, especially with David Backes saying he’ll return for Game 1, and scorers on the wings. This again is a strong defensive group, but the difference might be three solid defensive pairs that have size and can skate. Brian Elliott (.930 save percentage) and Jake Allen (.920 save percentage) are an excellent duo between the pipes.
6 – Dallas Stars. The Stars closed the season with a 9-2-0 record. They will win it all on the strength of their offense, one that has remained potent even with Tyler Seguin injured. They finished with the fourth-best possession rating at 52.5%. This is the most exciting team in hockey because it operates with an offense-first, defense-second mentality. Jamie Benn set career highs in goals (41) and points (89). John Klingberg has developed into an excellent puck-moving defensemen. But the Stars were 17th in goals against, and 21st in scoring-chances against. Their goaltending duo of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi are below average. It is hard to win the Cup without a more concerted defensive effort.
7 – Florida Panthers. The Panthers pressed fast-forward on their development, rising to the top of the Atlantic Division. They are a notch below the top-tier teams, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make a deep run. Jaromir Jagr, 44, continues to defy age. Roberto Luongo, 37, has enough left in the tank to steal a series. But their most important players might be Aleksander Barkov, 20, and Aaron Ekblad, 20, each of whom could be best-in-the-game good for the next decade. The youth-experience mix is intriguing, making them a sleeper. A year from now and we might be calling them a frontrunner in the East.
8 – Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks don’t appear as dangerous as they’ve been in past regular seasons prior to three Stanley Cups in six years. Their offense is sixth, but they were 21st in scoring-chances for. Outside of Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Artemi Panarin, who do you fear on the Blackhawks’ offense? We know that Duncan Keith can play half of a game, but a big question is whether coach Joel Quenneville has faith in the bottom-three defensemen. Last year he didn’t. The Blackhawks finished 10th in goals-against, and Corey Crawford covered up for a lot of mistakes. But their track record, along with Quenneville’s, means you can’t worry too much about the regular season.
9 – Tampa Bay Lightning. If Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman are healthy, the Lightning shoot up several spots on this list. It’s hard to overcome the losses of such critical players. After Stralman went down, the Lightning were a 50.3% possession team. That means they’re more reliant on Ben Bishop, who with a .926 save percentage posted his finest regular season. There is still loads of talent — from Victor Hedman to Nikita Kucherov to Ondrej Palat — to make a run. But even when healthy, this team wasn’t as dynamic as last season, finishing 12th in offense.
10 – San Jose Sharks. After missing the playoffs last season, general manager Doug Wilson hired a new coach, traded for a new goalie (Martin Jones), added a reliable defenseman (Paul Martin) and a middle-six winger (Joel Ward). He then added a depth forward (Nick Spaling), depth defenseman (Roman Polak) and a 1B option at goalie (James Reimer) at the trade deadline. The result is a team that has a reasonable chance of knocking out the Kings in the first round. While the trio of Joe Thornton, Brent Burns and Joe Pavelski remain elite, Tomas Hertl will be key.
11 – Nashville Predators. If puck possession were the only measure to gauge a team, then the Predators would rank in the top five in this list. While they control play like an elite team, they don’t score like one. Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and James Neal are exceptional talents on offense, while Roman Josi and Shea Weber anchor a strong defensive unit. But Pekka Rinne hasn’t looked right all season, finishing with a .908 save percentage. He is the X-factor.
12 – New York Rangers. It’s Henrik Lundqvist or bust for the Rangers, more so than in any other recent season. The Rangers’ possession game has deteriorated under coach Alain Vigneault (to 22nd in the league, 48%), and Lundqvist is the reason the Rangers are in the playoffs. The defense might’ve been the most overrated unit in the league entering the season as it has looked slow and discombobulated, hemorrhaging scoring chances too frequently. Ryan McDonagh will miss at least the first game of the playoffs because of broken hand. The forward group might be one of the best. But if the defense can’t get the puck to them, then what does it matter?
13 – New York Islanders. One-hundred points is not a bad season at all. But it feels like the Islanders should be better than this. They’ve taken a step back in some regards, finishing 19th in possession. Even with Anders Lee out with a broken leg, the talent is here for a deep run. You can’t discount a team with John Tavares leading the way. It just seems like there’s more for them to show.
14 – Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers looked like a new team once Shayne Gostisbehere was recalled, adding a game-breaking element on the back end and improving by more than 3% in possession. But it’s more than just the rookie who has played a big role. Wayne Simmonds surpassed the 30-goal mark for the first time, Brayden Schenn broke out and Sean Couturier showed he’s more than just a defensive center. Steve Mason is capable of winning a series.
15 – Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings nearly saw their playoff streak end at 24 seasons. But they’re back, even if they’re more of a bubble team than a legitimate contender. This is a low-event team that excels at limiting scoring chances, yet still is 17th in goals against. It’s not like Jimmy Howard has been great; he’s just been better than the struggling Petr Mrazek. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have passed their peak and Dylan Larkin, at 19, can’t be counted on to carry the offense. With Datsyuk hinting that it could be his last year in the NHL, rallying around him might be their only chance.
16 – Minnesota Wild. John Torchetti has done an admirable job in navigating this group to the playoffs, but 87 points is not impressive. They are short on game-breakers. Zach Parise and Ryan Suter can only do so much. Their top point producer, Mikko Koivu, ranked 58th in the league with 56 points. The Wild ended the year 23rd in possession, and goalie Devan Dubnyk was inconsistent.
Thanks to war-on-ice.com and puckon.net for the advanced stats data
Source link
The post Ranking the Stanley Cup contenders appeared first on 23on.com.