It’s trade-deadline day in the National Hockey League. The swap meet closes at 2 p.m. St. Louis time.
With Brian Elliott on long-term injured reserve and Jake Allen (knee) just back from a seven-week absence, Blues GM Doug Armstrong added some sensible goaltending insurance over the weekend, acquiring Anders Nilsson from Edmonton.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong
Nilsson has played reasonably well in 45 career NHL starts with the NY Islanders and Edmonton.
But except for the occasional eruption — as was the case in Sunday’s 5-2 win over a deadline-distracted Carolina team — the Blues’ offense remains sporadic. The Note ranks 24th in the league with an average of 2.45 goals per game. They’re in the lower half of the NHL (No. 17) in even-strength goal differential at minus 4. The power play has been an asset, but the Blues’ average of 1.81 even-strength goals per game this season is their lowest mark during Ken Hitchcock’s five seasons as coach.
The division-rival Chicago Blackhawks — powering up for another Stanley Cup run — have increased their depth and scoring punch with trades that brought in forwards Andrew Ladd, Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise. So the team that ranks seventh in the NHL in goals per game just added three more capable scorers; the three new Blackhawks have combined for 41 goals this season.
The ‘Hawks also acquired defenseman Christian Ehrhoff. He hadn’t done much this season for Los Angeles but has produced 10+ goals in three NHL seasons.
The Dallas Stars — dueling with Chicago and St. Louis for the top spot in the Central and the conference — haven’t made a move, but they’re prowling to beef up their defense. Elsewhere in the Western Conference, the San Jose Sharks have added four new pieces including goaltender James Reimer and bear-like defenseman Roman Polak. The Kings landed savvy winger Kris Versteeg, a four-time 20+ goal scorer who’s also notched 16 goals in 84 career postseason games. Versteeg had six goals and eight assists during Chicago’s march to the Stanley Cup in 2010. And last month the Kings took a chance on a trade for antique center Vincent Lacavalier and added physical defenseman Luke Schenn.
So with prime Western contenders getting better, what can we expect from Armstrong and the Blues?
Armstrong certainly has the nerve to make major deadline deals. In 2013, he pulled in defensemen Jay Bouwmeester and Jordan Leopold from Calgary and Buffalo, respectively. In 2014, Armstrong’s big play was a costly deal to obtain goaltender Ryan Miller (and the ornery Steve Ott) from Buffalo.
The splash moves didn’t make the desired impact at playoff time, with the Blues lasting only six games each time in getting dumped by LA (2013) and Chicago (2014) in the first round.
Armstrong was more low key last year at this time, sprucing up the roster by acquiring defensemen Robert Bortuzzo and Zbynek Michalek and the ancient forward Olli Jokinen. The result was the same; a first-round boot by Minnesota.
The Blues definitely could use some goal-scoring pop, and the Blues have been linked to trade-market names such as Boston’s Loui Eriksson, Arizona’s Mikkel Boedker, Toronto’s Nazem Kadri and the talented by enigmatic Tampa Bay brat Jonathan Drouin. (He isn’t a scorer; maybe he’ll develop into one.)
As Armstrong works the phones and emails today he’s in tricky spot for several reasons:
— The Blues have a snug fit with the salary cap and are unlikely to take on a sizable contract without offloading a player with a commiserate salary from their current roster.
— The Blues have spent draft picks in recent-year deadline deals, and can’t lose sight of the long-term reality. This franchise is trying to sustain a large-market payroll — with a medium-market (at best) revenue flow. Bringing in another high-profile rental would create excitement and possibly spark the offense … but if the Blues fail in the postseason again, all that’s left are regrets.
— The Blues’ anemic scoring is a legitimate concern. But in fairness, isn’t it prudent to factor injuries into the equation? According to ManGamesLost the Blues rank 8th in the league for most man games lost this season (through Saturday.) More than that, they’ve been been hit harder than any of the other 29 teams in terms of the impact of the lost players (according to the metrics at the site.) Through Saturday, Blues’ skaters had missed 3,444 minutes and 17 seconds of play this season due to injury — the 5th most in the NHL and the most (by a huge amount) among Western Conference contenders. With all of this carnage and chaos, isn’t it reasonable to expect a significant drop in scoring?
— Despite the constant roster stress and lost firepower, the Blues remain third in the West with 81 points, only one behind Dallas and two fewer than Chicago. The Blues also have the league’s seventh-best winning percentage, .623. The club expects the valuable Alexander Steen to be off IR and back in the lineup before the playoffs. The Blues haven’t had an intact lineup all season — but suppose all of the parts are in the tool box, intact, at postseason time?
— Having said that, even at full strength and health the Blues have strained to score postseason goals under Hitchcock; their average of 2.15 goals per postseason game over the past four seasons ranks 18th among 21 NHL teams that have competed in at least 10 playoff games. (And 16th among 19 teams that have played a minimum of 15 postseason games.) So even if the Blues are fully restored — can we trust this group to supply enough goals to fuel a playoff push that lasts longer than, say, a week? I wouldn’t rule it out, because it would be terribly unfair to lump young scorers such as Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Robby Fabbri into the postseason-choker category. They represent hope. And rookie defenseman Colton Parayko, who has 7 goals and 20 assists, could provide a missing postseason element; Blues’ D-men have done little to raise a low goals-scored total during the past four Stanley Cup tournaments.
— Armstrong may feel extra pressure to make a substantial move to let his players know he’s going to reinforce the roster to give the Blues their best shot at winning. As Kevin Allen wrote at USA Today: “The Blues have to bolster their forward group, if for no other reason than to remind players that they are in it to win it. Blues players undoubtedly have taken note that the Blackhawks have been very aggressive in an effort to win back-to-back championships. The division rival Nashville Predators also made a major deal earlier this season to improve their offense. The Blues are exceptional on defense … but they have been poking around the trade market for most of the season. Thus far, all the Blues have done is add backup goalie Anders Nilsson. What message does it send players and fans if they stand pat at the deadline? Keeping up with the Joneses is a must in the parity-driven NHL.”
Well, yes and no.
Blues chairman Tom Stillman has spent (nearly) to the salary-cap ceiling again, and at some point the high-priced talent must come through. It’s easy to scream at the GM to make a giant trade, or put all of the scoring-drought blame on Hitchcock. Sure, you can question some parts of Armstrong’s roster construction, and Hitchcock hasn’t won in the postseason for a long time. This isn’t all about the players. But when healthy, the Blues have the talent to do great things; that’s why Hitchcock’s team has the league’s best winning percentage since he took command early in the 2011-2012. If the players are consistently capable of playing well over 82 games during the run-up to the postseason — even in an injury-torn season — then why do they deserve a free pass from accountability in the chase for the Stanley Cup?
And there’s another practical matter here: even if Armstrong adds, say, a scorer at substantial cost to the team … does that really close the gap or give the Blues a considerably improved chance to topple the Blackhawks?
I’d like to see Armstrong make a move today … a significant move. And I believe he’s trying. But if the GM doesn’t reel in a big catch, I don’t think it warrants a blanket condemnation. A team ripped by injuries, the Blues have demonstrated admirable willpower and determination to push through the adversity. If the Blues can take on this much damage and still stand among the league’s best teams, then why shouldn’t the same characteristics carry through to the postseason?
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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