As a former prospect writer for Diamond Libraries and “Minor League Expert” for the Sporting News, I’ve been writing about prospects since I finished playing ball in college and it’s a passion of mine.
Cardinals prospect Sam Tuivailala
While I haven’t written about the minors for a number of years, at least not “officially,” I’ve continued to cover the the prospect world on my own even after I stopped writing about it on a regular basis.
Since this is the time of year publications are putting out their Top Prospects lists, a Top 10 rundown for the Cardinals seems appropriate. I won’t claim to have first-hand insight into all of these guys, but for most of them I’ve seen at least a little bit of video, even if I haven’t seen them in person.
With that out of the way, here’s my Top 10 for the Cardinals;
1. Alex Reyes, RHP
Reyes will be the top prospect in the organization in every ranking that comes out. He’s got the whole package – velocity (mid to upper 90’s, occasionally touching 100 MPH), a swing-and-miss breaking pitch (curve) and athleticism. Command is still a work in progress but that’s not unusual for guys like him at this stage in their development.
He’s one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, ranked as the 3rd best RHP prospect by MLB.com for example, and has ace potential. I’d be surprised if we don’t see him in the Majors at some point in 2016 assuming all goes well once he completes his suspension for marijuana use.
ETA: 2016
2. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Flaherty looks like a pitcher that could advance a couple of levels this season. He turned 20 in October, he’s got a big frame (6’4″) and he’s much more a pitcher than a thrower. His change up is viewed by most as his best pitch and that’s a great sign for someone who pitched all of last season at the age of 19.
The change is a “feel” pitch and guys that young who have full command of the change typically wind up with the ability to command the fastball and also create movement with it, if they don’t have it already. He needs some time but Flaherty looks like he’ll be in the rotation mix in a couple of years.
ETA: 2018
3. Edmundo Sosa, SS
I’m really intrigued by Sosa and because he’s a SS and not an OF I’m getting a little aggressive with my ranking. If he can stay at SS defensively over the long haul then I think he’s an emerging prospect. His offensive skills look good (.300/.369/.485 at Johnson City last year) but I do want to see what he looks like in full season Single-A ball before I get too excited. Seems like there’s a good bit of pop and patience here, which is a great combination.
The question at this point is simply whether or not those two things hang around as he climbs the ladder. Given that he’s at least a few years away there’s plenty of time for him to show what he’s all about.
ETA: 2019-2020
4. Junior Fernandez, RHP
Okay, I admit I may be getting a little crazy here. I’m not sure Fernandez will be this high for other people (he’s #9 for Baseball America and #10 for Baseball Prospectus) but one thing that plays, whether people like it or not, is velocity. He doesn’t turn 19 until March and he’s already been in the 100 MPH range so yeah, he throws really hard. If his secondary pitches come along then he could be an Alex Reyes-type prospect in a year or two. This is a big leap, I know, but given the success the Cardinals have had developing guys like this (Reyes, Carlos Martinez, etc.) I’m willing to go a little nuts.
ETA: 2020-2021
5. Marco Gonzales, LHP
I’m a big fan of Gonzales and I think we tend to forget about him because of the shoulder problems he dealt with last season. We’ve seen him handle Major League hitters, including the 2014 playoffs, and with good health he could be both a quality reliever and a ready-to-go rotation guy if an injury creates opportunity. He’s not going to blow you away with velocity (89-90 MPH typically) but he knows how to pitch and has an elite change up. I don’t think he’s a future 1-2 type starter but could be a 3-4 type if his curve continues to improve. My only real worry with Gonzales is if the shoulder continues to give him problems in the future. He is expected to be healthy for Spring Training at least as far as I know.
ETA: 2016
6. Luke Weaver, RHP
I may be wrong about this but I think a lot of people are overlooking Weaver. I was tempted to rank him as high as #2 on this list but I didn’t so maybe I’m not giving him full credit either. Maybe because he’s a college guy (Florida State) he’s not as projectable as a younger guy like Flaherty. Like Flaherty and Gonzales, Weaver’s best pitches are the fastball and change. The guy throws strikes (19 BB in 105 IP last year) and if he develops a better breaking ball he could become a middle of the rotation guy. He posted a 1.62 ERA at High-A Palm Beach last year so I’m guessing he starts at Double-A this year and could be a in line for a call-up late (perhaps as a reliever late in the season) this year or next year if he keeps having success.
ETA: 2017
7. Nick Plummer, OF
Yeah, it’s not great that your best hitting (note: hitting being literal here, not just position player as Sosa is ranked higher but isn’t as much a hitter to me as a ballplayer) prospect is a guy drafted out of high school just last Summer. Plummer is a talent but there aren’t many impact bats in this system, especially none that are close to reaching the big leagues. Plummer is viewed as a fine hitter with some ability to hit for power coming as he gets older and stronger and he has a little speed too. He played high school ball in the same league I did – in fact played for my high school’s arch rival – so I know some folks back in the Detroit area who have told me great things about his work ethic. In a couple of years we should have a better idea of what his ceiling is.
ETA: 2019-2020
8. Carson Kelly, C
We still need to find out if he’ll be able to hit as he works his way up the ladder but he won a Gold Glove in the Florida State League and we all know the Cardinals value defense over offense for their catchers. He has some power – in fact, that was viewed as one of his best tools when he was drafted – but it hasn’t translated into games. Maybe that’s because he was spending all of his spare time working on the conversion from 3B to C. We’ll find out soon enough. If he hits he’ll almost certainly be the Cardinals next everyday catcher, once Yadier Molina’s time is up of course, and since Kelly is only 21 he still has plenty of time to develop. He could serve as a backup to Yadi down the road a bit and then potentially take over if he shows he has what it takes.
ETA: 2019
9. Sam Tuivailala, RHP
Relievers typically don’t make prospects lists but I’m making an exception because I think Tuivailala could be an impact late-inning reliever in the near future and that’s a valuable commodity. If he figures out his command he’ll be all set. His fastball touches 100 MPH and developed a cutter last year that showed real promise. I’m sure we’ll see him this season, I’m just not sure how much because of all the players the team has available for the pen. I’m a fan and think he has long-term closer potential.
ETA: 2016
10. Magneuris Sierra, OF
Most prospect rankings have Sierra way higher than I do so I admit I could be way off base here. I know the team is high on his upside as well. My problem with Sierra is that he’ll either need to improve his pitch selection dramatically or start hitting for a whole lot more power as he matures. Now, he’s only going to be 20 years-old this season and he has a really quick bat. This is where performance balances with potential in my world. I know he has upside but until I see some more consistency I’m going to be conservative in my projections for him.
ETA: 2019-2020
Honorable Mentions:
Harrison Bader, OF – College kid out of Florida who has some pop and some speed. Good hitter, interesting guy to watch develop.
Tim Cooney, LHP – Strike thrower who should have some impact on the big league team in 2016.
Michael Ohlman, C – Some pop and a decent backstop but is 25 years-old so may not fit traditional profile of a “prospect.”
Charlie Tilson, OF – Speed demon with some on-base skill but very little pop. Good defender in CF.
Ronnie Williams, RHP – Big fastball (mid to upper 90’s) with the kind of athleticism the Cardinals like in their pitchers.
Jacob Wilson, IF – Doesn’t really have a position (plays 2B-3B) but has some power and overall hitting ability.
Patrick Wisdom, 3B – Power upside is there but it needs to translate better in games. Needs better strike zone judgment.
Jake Woodford, RHP – Projectable SP with nice upside. Still very young but an interesting name to keep an eye on.
Read More: Miklasz – Going Forward, Cardinals Have Strong Pitching Depth
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