Well, now. The controversial trade that sent young starting pitcher Shelby Miller to Atlanta for rightfielder Jason Heyward did not cause the ruination of Cardinals’ baseball as we know it.
The early-season howling winds of April were no match for the hot-take gusts that blasted the wisdom of Cards GM John Mozeliak. This piece of interstate commerce was declared an all-out conquest for Atlanta. The ruling came quickly, with national baseball scribes touting Miller was an early Cy Young candidate, and Heyward batting an icy .217 with four runs RBIs in the opening month.
What was Mozeliak thinking?
Mo was probably thinking that the regular season lasts six months and 162 games, followed by the bonus round of an annual postseason tournament. In baseball, April panic is hosted by short attention spans. If this long season teaches us anything, it’s the virtue of patience.
Heyward soon found his level. Since the beginning of May he’s enhanced the Cardinals in every way. His is a game of steady quality, distributed in the batter’s box, the base paths and in the patch of earth in right field. If you’re looking for grandiosity and aplomb, then this is the wrong player for the part. If you appreciate all-purpose talent equipped with multiple tools that can positively impact the game in a variety of ways, then Heyward is your kind of ballplayer. Heyward doesn’t go to work and operate a jackhammer; you’ll find him doing more subtle but beautiful things with the deft touch of jeweler’s screwdriver.
Heyward is the Most Valuable Player for these 2015 Cardinals. And as much as I enjoy a good debate, this one wouldn’t last too long.
Context is important here. If the Cardinals had the Toronto Blue Jays’ homer-bashing lineup of heavyweight hitters, Heyward would be an amenity. But on a St. Louis team that must by prevail by out-pitching foes, preventing runs, and being resourceful on offense, Heyward is an essential presence.
Through the first 159 games, the Cardinals have played the most low-scoring games in the majors. They’ve dueled opponents in 74 contests that featured no more than six total runs scored, and have competed in 60 games that produced as little as five runs between both teams. And when every run counts and is especially meaningful, the so-called little things really matter. Heyward can influence the outcome in so many ways, he’ll often come up with something that can make the difference between winning and losing.
Heyward’s season batting line is not the stuff of ESPN Sports Center legend. With three games left on the schedule he’s batting .292 with a .358 onbase percentage and a .439 slugging percentage. He has 13 homers, 33 doubles, four triples, 60 RBIs, 79 runs, and 23 stolen bases.
Good statistics, for sure. But this is not a set of stats that holler LOOK AT ME …
Other, more complex numbers convey Heyward’s value.
First of all, Heyward goes to the post with dependable regularity
Because of an outbreak of injuries that have compromised the Cardinals all season, their outfield is a puzzle with missing pieces. Six outfielders have a number of plate appearances ranging from 153 to 323. Heyward, with 600 plate appearances, has been the one constant. He’s played 1,263 innings, mostly in right. And only one other STL outfielder — Grichuk with 704 — has logged over 500 innings in the field this season. A ripped apart outfield makes Heyward’s daily presence even more valuable. With so many outfielders on the disabled list or deemed inadequate for regular playing time, manager Mike Matheny can always count in Heyward being ready to play … and play well.
On a team that must scratch for runs, Heyward’s base-running skills are a plus.
With 6.1 Base Running Runs (as listed at Baseball Prospectus), Heyward is rated as the fifth-best base runner in the majors this season. He gains extra bases by reading the play, using his speed, pushing to score, or getting in better position to score. When the Cards’ lineup scuffles to get something going, it’s an asset to have a runner that can go from first to third on a single, second to home on a single, or first to home on a double. And when Heyward steals a base (or more) in a game this season, the Cardinals are 17-3.
Heyward stands among the best defensive players in his industry
You’ve watched him play 153 games so far; you don’t need statistical support to know that Heyward’s gold-glove defense is authentic. And in recent weeks, the point was reinforced by several dramatic plays that directly led to the Cardinals’ going into their clubhouse as winners. According to Bill James Online, Heyward has saved the Cardinals 22 runs with his defense in right field this season — and another two with his playmaking in center. No other rightfielder comes close to matching Heyward’s defensive value. With an offense that ranks 22nd in the majors in runs scored per game, Heyward’s defense is vital to a pitching staff that must limit runs to maximize the Cardinals’ chances of winning.
Heyward’s onbase skill is an important component in the STL offense
This isn’t a bombs-away offense. This is an offense that must put as many runners on base as possible to keep the wheels turning and create scoring opportunities. Heyward has a .358 onbase percentage for the season, but that OBP is .375 since the first of May. And it’s .396 since the All-Star break. He’s been a big part of the sequencing that the Cardinals must depend on to put runs on the board.
Heyward doesn’t have massive power numbers, but his offense requires no apologies
Based on a couple of advanced-metrics measures, Heyward’s adjusted OPS and his adjusted weighted runs created put him at about 20 percent above the league average.
The sum of Heyward’s game makes him one of the best players in the majors
I mentioned this in a Cardinals’ piece that I wrote today. If you put everything together — offense, defense, base running and heavy-duty playing time — Heyward’s 5.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) ranks 11th among MLB players, is sixth among National League players, is sixth among MLB outfielders, and is third among NL outfielders. Heyward has been worth 132 Total Runs according to the Bill James system that accounts for offense, defense and base running. That’s the highest among the Cardinals and the 19th-best Total Runs count in the majors. Matt Carpenter has been the superior offensive player in 2015, but Carpenter’s third-base defense is well below average, and his base-running metric is slightly below average.
That’s why I chose Heyward over Carpenter for the team’s MVP in 2015: the splendid all-around game that motivated Mozeliak to make the trade that brought J-Hey to St. Louis. Heyward can become a free agent after the season … and the Cardinals hope to make him Stay-Hey.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
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